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Alex Belar's avatar

I feel that when voters say they are concerned about inflation, they are expressing a more general worry about their economic situation. They are saying, we have trouble getting to the end of the month, even when we have a job. To address these concerns, governments should not just fight inflation but pursue the wider objective of increasing the labour share of income.

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The Rhythm's avatar

Well that’s not going to happen in the US for the next 4 years.

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Alex Belar's avatar

Yes, but it should be a key point in the platform of the opposition party

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Let's sweep the midterms!✊

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BTAM Master's avatar

Assuming we have them.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

If we don't, we'll have Civil War 2.0.

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Al Keim's avatar

Right behind you:-)

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Al Keim's avatar

Amen, and that they are legit.

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bdfnyc's avatar

If the media don't cover the opposition party, or cover it inaccurately, key points don't mean squat. We just learned that.

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Alex Belar's avatar

Or maybe I should say, opppsition parties, because it is increasingly evident that, given the mobility of capital, such a policy would have to be coordinated at the international level.

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Derelict's avatar

Capital is mobile, but corporations are not. Exxon-Mobil, for example, can headquarter anywhere on the planet it wants. But the majority of its revenue-generating operations are in the United States, thus subjecting it to US laws in most areas.

For companies that are not multi-nationals, the question is always "Where you gonna go?" Back when Obama first became president, I had one construction company owner whining about how his taxes were going to skyrocket while he also was going to have to abide by OSHA regulations. "I should just move my company to some other country!" he said. So I asked him which one, since anyplace that would be remotely like the US is going to feature both higher taxes and more stringent workplace rules. He had no idea (though I suggested he consider the libertarian paradise of Somalia).

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Dennis Allshouse's avatar

Hahaha, love the Somalia reference

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Miles vel Day's avatar

They can put it in the platform, but Republicans will just deny they care about regular people and are just doing trans surgeries to immigrant prisoner children, and they have loyal media organs to blast that message to half the ears in the country. Meanwhile the 25% leftmost part of the country will continue to ignore everything Democrats do and then take to social media to whine that Democrats never do anything.

What Dems need to do is yell really, really, really loud that people are being lied to about them.

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Robert Briggs's avatar

Which is why Bernie and AOC are attracting crowds of tens of thousands, even in deep red states. But the mainstream Dems hate the left wing of their party almost as much as the MAGA cult does.

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bdfnyc's avatar

It always amuses me that the rights and privileges the civilized world has taken for granted for 70 years are "commanizm" in the US. Insanity.

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Dee Whitman's avatar

As someone who has experienced medical debt twice, who could never get on the property ladder bc of it, who is being ripped off by a price-gouging landlord, and who is dying very prematurely of pancreatic cancer detected late (bc I lacked insurance when the symptoms began), I'm not amused by this -- I'm enraged.

Please be enraged on behalf of myself and the tens of millions of Americans who are struggling as much, or almost as much, as I am. Thank you.

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Sonoma Susie's avatar

Taking your comment to heart and wishing you some comfort with family and friends. These are such tough times for the healthy not to mention those with your serious diagnosis. My older brother had late stage pancreatic cancer for 9 months in 2005. I support the Lustgarten Foundation for research to defeat pancreatic cancer.

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Frau Katze's avatar

I’m so sorry. 😢

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Lynne Allen Taylor's avatar

It was. Didn't do any damn good.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Probably not, but we do have the midterms wildcard.

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Al Keim's avatar

We got Florida and New York in a couple weeks.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

🤞🤞🤞

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steven yarnell's avatar

If there are midterms

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Oh there will be. Or there will be Civil War 2.0.

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Robert McComb's avatar

The next four years may not, and likely will not, culminate in elections.

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Theodora30's avatar

Actually polls showed that a solid majority of voters who went for Trump because they believed, wrongly, that the economy was bad told those pollsters that they and their region were doing well financially but that the national economy was bad. Clearly that impression was not based on their personal experience with inflation — the excuse the media used — but on what they were being told by the media, both mainstream and right wing. Dean Baker described some of the misleading tactics the media used to portray the Biden economy in a negative light.

“ My Six Favorite Untruths About the Biden-Harris Economy”

https://cepr.net/publications/my-six-favorite-untruths-about-the-biden-harris-economy/

Dan Froomkin debunked the mainstream media’s claim that people get their misinformation from social media, not from them:

“I Blame the Media”

https://criticalread.substack.com/p/i-blame-the-media/comments?utm_source=post&comments=true&utm_medium=web

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Chris's avatar

"Actually polls showed that a solid majority of voters who went for Trump because they believed, wrongly, that the economy was bad told those pollsters that they and their region were doing well financially but that the national economy was bad."

This.

The "region" thing is especially damning. "Most voters say they personally are doing fine but they believe the economy as a whole is terrible!" Well, that's pretty revealing, though not necessarily dispositive: after all, even during the Great Depression, most working-age men still had jobs, even if the number of those who didn't was historically high. "Most voters say their state's economy is doing fine, but the national economy is terrible!" Okay, this is a tell. There's no fucking way your average citizen can differentiate how his state economy is affecting him from how the national economy is affecting him. This is 100% "I've been reading and watching stories for four years telling me that the national government is doing terrible on the economy, so everything around me looks fine, so I assume we in this state are just lucky."

"“I Blame the Media”"

Completely. The older I get and more political cycles I watch go by, the more convinced I am that the biggest explanation for our political cycles isn't economics, it isn't gender, it isn't even racism. It's the media. It's 100% Republican-owned, the virtual reality it creates reflects that, and the result shows in our elections.

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David Fisher's avatar

Not 100% Republican owned - but that media which supplies “news” to right leaning and disengaged voters certainly is. MAGA info crowds out other sources in a significant subset of the American population. As a result, we get millions of Americans who thought living under Biden was pure hell when, objectively, standards of living, price levels, employment rates were all trending in a positive direction. So, the essential Dem problem isn’t “cost of living” or economic mismanagement (though they’re not perfect either!), but an inability to ram through a coherent message to a critical mass of the voting public. Solve that problem, maybe they’ve got a chance for the presidency in 2028…if we still have elections.

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

There was a time when the news reported truthfully on events and provided unbiased, infirmed analysis. Now we have 24 hours of misinformation, disinformation, and partisan propaganda on the "cable news" channels.

I am grateful that I live in Canada so I can watch the CBC news. I can also read a newspaper, the Toronto Star, that is Canadian owned.

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Rob Allen's avatar

I lived through the era of the Vietnam War and I can attest to that time not being one in which much of the broadcast media reported truthfully and completely. To my knowledge, only Time magazine subsequently acknowledged that they were gulled into believing the nonsense “Domino Effect” (something American reactionaries could take up again, if they knew any history), although I’m unsure if they actually apologised for it.

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ISeeWhatYouDidThere's avatar

It should be compulsory to have to read the @NYTimesPitchbot before reading the NY Times itself. Gives perspective.

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Bern's avatar

I'd like to see some robust data sets and analysis of actual numbers of viewers, listeners and readers of alla the media to have a stronger sense of your argument. Any suggestions?

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Stephen Brady's avatar

And I wonder, because of the wealth gap in the US, if the per capital GDP minus the top 5% wouldn't be a better and lower predictor of life satisfaction.

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Color Me Skeptical's avatar

Or instead of using per capita GDP, which is just the average, how about using median household or individual income? That could be more indicative of general prosperity.

My sense is that the U.S. has a median income lower than its average income. (I would happily sign up for a system that swaps those two numbers.)

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Rachel Kahler's avatar

GDP isn't income. GDP does not measure individual wealth. Rich people generally do not contribute directly to the GDP. GDP is the value of economic activity, and the problem in the US is that the average American gets very little direct benefit of the GDP. I do not know why Paul used GDP to compare wealth to individual happiness and lifespan. Net disposable income is a better measure, and Canada ranks pretty far up. Notably, although the US consistently ranks #1 in disposable income, that measurement does not take into account that the US doesn't include healthcare while other wealthy nations do. Add into that, the US provides little support for family leave, or other leave, and that cash advantage goes to employers, not workers. As a result, it turns out that it's likely that Canadians are likely wealthier than your average American after considering health expenses (including insurance), and they have more free time to enjoy it.

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Color Me Skeptical's avatar

In Econ, GDP essentially equals national income. (One person’s spending is another person’s income.)

Your other points are spot on though.

Essentially it really boils down to reducing income and wealth inequality. Provided that the society is wealthy enough overall, lower inequality leads to greater net happiness.

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Rachel Kahler's avatar

By the way, I did some researching. The median disposable income in the US right now the average adjusted net household income is about $51k a year in the US. Canada's is about $34400 (American dollars). Average cost for healthcare in the US is about $14500 per person (after taxes), so if you have just 2 people in the household, disposable income drops by almost $30k while in other wealthy nations, healthcare costs are mostly paid via taxes. The average Canadian pays just about $1200 (Canadian dollars) out of pocket per year. That means that, when you take into account healthcare after taxes, an average household of 2 in the US has an income of just about $22k, while a similar household in Canada still has over $30k in disposable income. Add kids, and... Wow. Canadians are doing pretty ok. Americans... Not so much.

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Judy Roberts's avatar

Canadians also get a year off with paid leave when a child is born. The time off can be split between the mother & father.

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Ian Ollmann's avatar

> Rich people generally do not contribute directly to the GDP.

They only absorb it.

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Rachel Kahler's avatar

Exactly.

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Gaily's avatar

Bingo!

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Peter d's avatar

It doesn’t need to be 5% - maybe 1% or 0.1%

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Leslie's avatar

Great question.

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ADeweyan's avatar

You mean, like doing things like supporting unions, creating policies that are actually successful at starting to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, working to control excessive fees and medical expenses, and more? Yeah, if only there was some party campaigning things like that.

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Joel Bolonick's avatar

I agree with your sentiment but, to Krugman’s point, it doesn’t contradict how very different countries with different economies could experience political chaos when the most obvious factor they have is an inflationary spike caused by the pandemic.

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Miles vel Day's avatar

The problem is that people have zero ability - in fact, thanks to right wing media (which is not just a US problem), LESS than zero ability - to make a connection between proposed and implemented government policy and their own lives.

We just have to win through razmatazz and agitprop, and then try to govern as best we can. If Trump hasn't shown that linking campaigning with governing is a political drag then I don't know what would. Just say whatever. Who cares.

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Jina Mitchell's avatar

Which comes back to what Paul said - address the extreme economic inequality in American society.

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David Yohalem's avatar

Why not start with a minimum wage that people can (minimally) live on? For example, many Walmart, Amazon and Target employees receive some government assistance and are on Medicaid. Meanwhile, local governments subsidize their existence, offering them paved access roads, water, waste disposal a supply of economically marginal employees. People in service industries and agricultural laborers are permitted to be paid less than the federal minimum wage. For the former group, they are expected to make up the difference through tips; for the latter group, they are mostly Black, Brown, undocumented migrants, or poor white trash, so who cares really?

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Ian Ollmann's avatar

This is the dual mandate of the Fed....

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Ian M.'s avatar

What country do you think this is, Alex?

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Alex Belar's avatar

A functioning one?

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u.n. owen's avatar

I have NEVER been so proud, grateful, humble, modest & polite (🇨🇦 after all) to live north of your border, & I troll that as someone who attended Expo '67.

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Lance Khrome's avatar

Canadians across the Provinces push back against the ugly orange bully, whilst Americans quake in their boots..."boring"? How about righteous courage and national pride?

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u.n. owen's avatar

I'm from Toronto & have NEVER liked Trumpf, how can anyone be taken in by failed buffoon?

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Sean's avatar

Constant propaganda about Dems, sanewashing headlines and a huge desire to be bitter towards someone, doesn't really matter who.

I'm holding out hope any more efforts to hit Social Security may cause a permanent decline in his standing, but won't believe it till I see it.

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u.n. owen's avatar

Last century I followed American politics because they were more interesting than 🇨🇦, this century don't even have passport & can't imagine traveling to U.S. ever again, sadly.

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Sonoma Susie's avatar

Yes, the constant negative propaganda to appeal to stoke anger and fear in voters leads to confirmation bias such that breaking through those automatic thought patterns requires huge jolts followed by persistency. Perhaps many of the Trump voters are now getting those jolts with DOGE actions. so I love the coverage of the town hall protests as the path to persistency.

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ISeeWhatYouDidThere's avatar

But the "Both Sides" coverage from the NYTimes and the WaPo is the really toxic thing. Prof Krugman himself has given us an insider's view on how he was regularly told to amend his proposed articles that acknowledged the strong Biden economy, not mention the NYT actually wanting *their own* Nobel Prize winning, popular columnist to writer fewer (not more) columns-

https://www.cjr.org/analysis/paul-krugman-leaving-new-york-times-heavy-hand-editing-less-frequent-columns-newsletter.php

To paraphrase economist Brad de Long - "You think you know how good Krugman is? You need to revise your estimate upwards, again."

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Avril Orloff's avatar

Well, we have our own Maple MAGAs right here in Canada, so clearly there is a constituency of people who are willing to be taken in by the US failed buffoon and his mini-me counterpart here, the ineffable PeePee. Hopefully they will be vastly outnumbered in the upcoming election. I certainly plan to do everything in my power to help that happen.

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Lance Khrome's avatar

Nobody — NOBODY! — anywhere on the planet can surpass the Orange Felon for sheer dickishness nor blatant criminality, full stop.

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Avril Orloff's avatar

Not gonna argue with you about that, Lance! We just need to make sure we don’t elect someone who will throw us to into the OF’s hands.

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Frau Katze's avatar

From Victoria, BC and not enjoying the orange buffoon 🤡

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u.n. owen's avatar

For as long as he's been in public life, since the '80's.

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

That really is the question! He is a buffoon, a con man, a grifter. All I can think is that people elected hom because he was famous and was supposed to be rich. They equate wealth with intelligence and competence.

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u.n. owen's avatar

Had he not been gifted seasons of prime time on NBC in The Apprentice & then hours of free airtime on CNN in 2016 by the same idiot, people wouldn't have known or cared who 🤡 he was.

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

Exactly. Nonetheless, it still surprises me that people weren't able to see through his smarmy, used car salesman facade to the truly hate-filled person underneath his bronze skin.

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u.n. owen's avatar

As has been pointed out post-convictions, he has for his lifetime skated on ANY consequences for criminal conduct, sadly (& tragically for America & the world) his reelection only continued this.

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Ian Ollmann's avatar

Trump is himself not like most MAGA. He isn't Christian, southern/midwestern, isn't someone who works 9/5. One would wonder why they would have anything to do with them at all.

I personally feel that it really isn't about him, but rather seething, incoherent rage at a mixture of (democrat) leftward social overreach and corporate Democrat fiscal policy. Both combine to write off / discard non college educated white males and anyone who might sympathize with them. Trump just gives voice to the rage. He's obviously deeply disqualified for the job, due to incompetence, criminal behavior, malignant narcissism, etc. however, compared to a party you might perceive to be ACTIVELY out to get you, he might seem like a good idea.

Defeating Trump -- to the extent he is even allowed to run again -- seems to me to mostly be a matter of getting the Clinton/Obama leadership out, and replaced by someone actively progressive. Bernie Sanders is too old, but otherwise would have been a good choice. Andrew Yang is impressive. I like Buttigieg too, but he might be a stretch for MAGA.

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Paul Olmsted's avatar

The states of Washington, Oregon & California

are soon to sign up to be Baja Canada .

It won’t be too hard to start saying “ Eh “

instead of “ far out “ .

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Martin Machacek's avatar

As a Washington resident I’d love to become resident of the 11th province :).

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Paul Olmsted's avatar

I’m in California- ready to join up w/ ya

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

That's okay. In my experience only people from Ontario say "Eh".

Also, Canada describes itself as a cultural mosaic rather than the US melting pot. You can just add "far out" to our Canadian vernacular.

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Paul Olmsted's avatar

JB ,

That’s where I picked it up - I worked with a tennis organization in Ontario ( long ago ) -

Had some far out times up there .

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

Well buddy, that sounds like it was very cool! “Buddy” is now used frequently in north eastern Nova Scotia where I was raised. Some people even say “some buddy” instead of “somebody”.

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Paul Olmsted's avatar

You’re darn tootin’ ,

Do you still have Canadian ID ?

Just wondering when I’ll need to defect -

hopefully before t-Rump fits me for a nice little

cell in Gitmo .

Never made it to NS - but I’m starting to wonder about the kind of reception Canadians would

offer ?

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CBB's avatar

The "Eh" is not a problem, the "aboot" is more tricky.

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Jane none of your businesss's avatar

Dude, Canadians do not say “aboot.” We never have. This is so freakin boring

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

That changes as you go across our giant country so so I wouldn't worry "aboot" it. One thing, most of us know more French than Spanish, so learning some French might help.

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Kevin Kooiker's avatar

I greatly enjoyed Expo 67, particularly because my extremely bored father allowed me to wander Expo 67 alone as a 12-year-old boy from small-town Iowa.

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Eskaveeda's avatar

We went there, too! I was only six at the time, but somehow, I was allowed to go on my first roller coaster ride, sitting between my teenage brother and our dad. I recall I had fun. On the way home to Virginia, we spent the night in Niagara Falls, NY, and I recall getting a bit of a soaking at the falls. Good times!

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u.n. owen's avatar

I was younger & just remember it being colourful.

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Jane none of your businesss's avatar

You could still do that anywhere in Montreal. Anywhere, anytime. Though it’s not good parenting to free range your kids after sundown, though some in my neighbourhood do in the summer. (I live across from a park with a water playground. It gets LOUD.)

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Lapsed Conservative's avatar

I think there would be even more Blue States interested in converting from “states” to “provinces”.

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u.n. owen's avatar

No, we're just going thru a bad time, the histories of both great nations will survive, recover & prosper. Besides, we don't wannem.

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CVG's avatar

I think Trump’s fascination with Greenland and Canada is simple, as are most things around Trump.

Look at the land mass areas of the United States, Canada, and Greenland.

If the US conquered Greenland, the combined land mass of the two would be larger than that of Canada. (Side note - if you look at the normal rectangular map of the world, Greenland appears to be yuge.)

Now, if you added the land mass of Canada to the mix, the combination would surpass that of Russia. (See above side note.)

Kingdoms, especially real estate ones, are all about size, right? Keeping up with the Putins takes some doing.

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Howard Loewen's avatar

He's trying to compensate for his small hands.

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u.n. owen's avatar

Among other thing🥒.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Shouldn't that emoji be Orange?

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u.n. owen's avatar

It's a pickle, 🍆 too big.

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Al Keim's avatar

I've been told size doesn't matter. Funny how it keeps coming up.

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u.n. owen's avatar

🤡

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

As well as his really small brain.

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Margaret Reis's avatar

Good one!

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Christian Major's avatar

That's too simple.

By controlling Canada and Panama, Trump and the US would have a complete stranglehold on the most effective east-west naval commercial lanes. They would also greatly improve their standing in the Arctic Council, and obtain critical minerals and oil.

Trump doesn't care about us Canadians. He never has. And he most definitely would never give an annexed Canada full statehood.

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Terence J. Ollerhead's avatar

Not going to happen. But as in all empires, the cost and difficulty of managing a colony the size and belligerence of Canada would cripple the US. Not to mention the bodies of dead US soldiers on the transportation routes.

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Philippe's avatar

More like Puerto Rico, a colony for Emperor Donald.

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nl's avatar

He doesn’t even care about Americans.

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DK Brooklyn's avatar

It’s common sense. The idea to make Canada part of the United States came into Trump’s mind when so many said they will move there if he won. It’s part of his vengeful approach to critics.

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u.n. owen's avatar

Since Manhattan ran him out, why can't rest of Free🌏?

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SAH Vashon's avatar

Control of shipping lanes through the warming Arctic are front and center for Russia and USA

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Ada Fuller's avatar

I think Trump sees Putin ruling Europe, Xi ruling Asia and him all of North America.

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Elizabeth's avatar

Absolutely that is the plan. And they are in it together. Solidly

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Mathias Risse's avatar

Greenland is still participating in Danish Welfare State. That's something they probably won't want to lose. US individualistic capitalism is less attractive.

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Elizabeth's avatar

Yep.....Denmark is number 5 in the ranking of Happiness....USA is in the 20 somethings? Is it welfare to give anyone the chance to have a good education? To not be wiped out by medical bills? What about simply caring for each other? Is that welfare.

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Philippe's avatar

Caring for each other is well fare. Marines carrying a wounded buddy is also well fare. It's a question of solidarity, not the poor robbing the rich.

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

US capitalist indoctrination has ensured that many of its citizens view any social program that benefits the entire population as "welfare". Otherwise, its citizens would rise up and demand universal publicly-funded healthcare, a well-funded public education system, subsidized daycare, and social programs to support people with disabilities, special needs, and chronic mental illness. (I have likely missed several other important social programs related to homelessness, hunger, and equality of opportunity.)

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Lynn's avatar

They also don't fund public education very well. I think they pay American teachers half of what a unionized Canadian teacher makes. They also don't understand what socialism means., and immediately leap to communism. And parental leave is terrible. And 2 week vacations. Americans are brainwashed into believing they are an exceptional country.

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Philippe's avatar

Not to mention how well indigenous people did in America

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Frau Katze's avatar

Plus Trump probably only looks at Mercator projection maps and is overestimating the size of Canada and Greenland.

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

He is very good at overestimating the size of things... Mind out of the gutter please! I was thinking of him overestimating the crowd size at his first inauguration.

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Al Keim's avatar

Tilt your globe and rotate it looking at the north pole. Oh, how bigly we will be. We'll set everybody free. Fashion furs for you babe, rare earth minerals for me. Apologies to Randy Newman.

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Alan Nisbet's avatar

It’s got nothing to do with land mass, but trade routes. The Northwest Passage bottlenecks between Canada and Greenland. The constriction of the Panama Canal is self explanatory.

An example of this is the U.S. continuing to deny recognition of Canada’s sovereignty of the Northwest Passage.

Commanding the flow of trade gives power to those who control the passage of goods. Demands of fealty would be extracted from all who seek profit from the trade route’s use and controlling areas of restricted access is the best way to do this.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

One big source of dissatisfaction is the housing crisis. Like many places, we don’t have enough affordable housing. We are not alone in this, as you know I’m sure. I talked to young people in Denmark and the Netherlands in the past two years and lack of housing, being priced out of the market, is the situation there also. I learned recently that Finland, after largely solving the homelessness problem is seeing it rise again. Cuts to social security is one possible cause. I have read that the effect of the GFC on house construction might have contributed to the shortage of housing. We certainly allowed high immigration in Canada without a commensurate increase in housing. Many of these immigrants are providing much needed labour in care homes, hospitals, construction, auto repair, and much more, so it’s not that we didn’t need them. We just didn’t build enough houses for them, or upgrade our transit sufficiently, or train enough health care workers. I do think retirements during Covid, in all sectors, has had a bigger impact that is not discussed, although perhaps the numbers don’t reflect that.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

Goodness I’m in Nova Scotia and we have many new immigrants working here, although we could use more auto mechanics, home grown or foreign born. I have had elderly relatives in hospital and care in recent years, and the lovely young people now working in these facilities have been a godsend. My physician is from Britain. We even have immigrant farmers.

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Ian M.'s avatar

What is your point?

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Jane Flemming's avatar

Immigrants are not just going to big cities

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u.n. owen's avatar

Halifax has had their 1st increase in decades, it's mostly 🇨🇦 leaving our big cities.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

I know that is a contributing factor, but it really does seem to be a global phenomenon, at least in developed countries. You hear the same stories in mid size Dutch cities, Scandinavian cities, Spain, Portugal, America. Changes in work patterns, like remote work, and failure to build to meet the demand, inflation in cost of materials during pandemic, zoning problems, all seem to have contributed. The great financial crisis eliminated a lot of construction, and it took a long time to recover.

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u.n. owen's avatar

Our market has tanked here in Toronto, with #s not seen in 3 decades, it took 20 years to recover then. This is not unique to housing, Oxfam used to do annual disparity report pre-COVID, real wages flatlined post-'70's OPEC gas "crisis" recession & capital has only ever moved upwards since & now we have regime of billionaire oligarchs killing democracy as well.

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Sharon's avatar

Why is housing such a big problem now in so many places? Why aren't housing stocks going up?

I listened to a podcast about how housing has had no productivity gains because its all still built on-site. They talked about lowering costs through modular manufacturing. Roof joists are usually manufactured in a factory and brought into the site. That's got to save time and money.

I think one of the reasons manufactured housing has such a bad name is because mobile homes in the US have their own special codes which allow substandard construction. Prime example: 5-7 year roof on a mobile home vs 20-30 year roof on conventional construction.

My house is manufactured. At 7 years old, it was comparable to a 30 year conventional. The roof leaked like a sieve because the roof slope required special roofing techniques that weren't used. We replaced a lot of major components.

It's worth considerably less too.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

It all boils down to corporate greed. Plain and simple.

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RDB1172's avatar

Venture capitalists started purchasing homes for sale in many areas and wiped out inventory. The price of a sheet of plywood has gone from $6 to $100. That’s a lot of extra cost in home building right now. I live in the St. Louis area 🤮, and it’s a union state that never fully recovered the loss of journeyman in many trades from 2009. Many are working into their mid 60’s for companies that still need new hires out of high school. Now things are getting iffy again and it’ll be hard to recruit young men and women for the trades. So fewer homes get built. Especially starter homes. Before January 20th, a high school graduate with a clean drug screen, could be a journeyman in about four years with average salary of $80k plus, full health benefits for themselves and dependents, and a pension. Of course that varies by trade and easily higher. But as I said, times are iffy and while homes are being built, it’s not the booming 90’s and early aughts. Roof joists don’t have a lot to do with it. Stick built (onsite built joists) haven’t happened in years, although my old home was built that way in 1967.

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Lee Peters's avatar

We are still suffering from the Great Recession in many ways, with housing the most prominent one. There were few housing starts for several years thanks to the housing bubble and financial crisis. A few journalists at the time reported that a very small group of investors/builders were buying up all the buildable land from illiquid builders with the intent to mete out construction over time to keep their profits high. Unfortunately those reports did not get the attention they deserved, and now few people remember that era. They don’t even remember events five years ago, let alone 17 years ago.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

What you said about the loss of journeymen in many trades in 2009 is a big factor in housing shortages, I suspect. I understand (no special expertise) that construction is cyclical with boom and bust cycles. The financial crisis was a huge bust that has really reverberated in the decades since. One thing we have learned is that governments can help smooth that cycle and help provide affordable housing by building low cost subsidized housing during downturns, so trades people don’t disappear and are around when you need them in the up turns.

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Jane Hall Design's avatar

Short term housing like Airbnb is a huge problem

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Elizabeth's avatar

Housing is going up because the "financial" sector (not banking) was born after the 2008 mortgage crisis. Banks had thousands of foreclosures on their hands and a few investors bought them up at rock bottom prices

They continued to investing in housing either selling for a profit or letting the rent pay for the investment, Now they own 30% of homes in the USA. (Correct me if I have the wrong).

Who can compete with financial corps to buy property.

The second biggest cause of high prices are the cartels and other criminals or just wealthy people abroad buying real estate and pushing prices up to launder more money or to just put their money is safe regulated markets.

Third, pension funds buy real estate instruments to make pensioners more wealthy when they retire...but they can't afford to buy a house!

So when they blame older people for staying in their homes....you know what to tell them.

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Terence J. Ollerhead's avatar

Yes, party correct. But immigrants, rightly or wrongly, want to go to the big cities, where there is more opportunity, immigrant communities, connections. But they won't, or don't want to, go to Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, the Prairie provinces, rural Quebec or BC. And that's a problem, but not just a Canadian one.

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Sidney's avatar

Immigration to cities has been a worldwide trend for decades and will continue to be so as rural populations are no longer required to engage in subsistence farming. Incentives are often required to attract professionals to the countryside.

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Lee Peters's avatar

Cities also serve as marriage markets for young people who want to avoid marrying their cousin.

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Peter d's avatar

Go read the Peace by Chocolate story. These immigrants were thrilled to immigrate to small town Nova Scotia. The town pulled together and provided lots of grassroots support. And the chocolate is great!

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Jane Flemming's avatar

Economic growth in left behind regions like the maritimes, and many rural areas is one of the reasons I started reading Prof. Krugman and others years ago. It seems to be a thorny problem, but there are some things that seem to help, like locating research facilities, government extension units for things like agriculture, fisheries, mining that not only bring people and money to these areas but also do research that can drive productivity gains. It would be great to have more research in construction, which is much more regional than people realize. Home construction techniques are very different in desert regions to the cold, wet northeast for example. There is an American magazine called Fine Homebuilding that has created a fascinating ecosystem of trades people, manufacturers, inspectors, building science people, and home owners that seems to have a very salutary impact on all parties, and construction materials of all kinds are often good candidates for local manufacturing. My husband and I visited this amazing museum in Lund Sweden last year that was a collection of old houses and buildings of various ages and styles right in the old town. It wasn’t just a museum. It was also a research centre for building techniques. They had cross sections of different wall assemblies for example and were studying how to use old materials in new assemblies.

Anyway, the Odd Lots Podcast had an interesting episode a while back on how countries can build economic complexity

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000624191423

There were some interesting ideas.

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Somewhere, Somehow's avatar

I would.

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Frau Katze's avatar

There’s plenty of immigrants in BC. When did you last visit? We have a huge housing crisis.

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Myra Marx Ferree's avatar

I agree that housing shortages are key sources of dissatisfaction, whether renting or buying or simply trying to keep a roof over one’s head. I think it would be useful to look at housing “abundance” and figure out the differences - one big one IMO is our own popular greed for space. Two consequences: housing for the wealthy keeps getting bigger, and (even liberals) oppose increasing housing density. In rural areas, it means keeping things around you “unspoiled” and in urban areas it means height limits and lot sizes. Small towns with underused housing are absorbing immigrants but making residents feel “invaded”. More housing means to many people with housing “less democracy” (or having things the way we want). Unless we can get more “woke” on this, we will not get housing increases through democratic decision-making (I say after watching a deep blue town in a deep blue state fight back against very, very modest changes in zoning).

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Greedy landlords is a topic rarely discussed, but should be. It's the real cause of homelessness. Sure all the other things, various regulations, NIMBYism, etc., play a role, but the real problem is greedy landlords in particular, and a greedy real estate industry more generally.

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Somewhere, Somehow's avatar

In the US, hedge funds et al are buying starter homes which reduces the number available for sale. Just as Microsoft wants you to rent their Office products, these hedge funds want to keep people renting. I’ve also read they expect renters to maintain rented properties.

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Elizabeth's avatar

YEP,,,AND THEN THERE ARE MONEY LAUNDERING CRIMINALS AND PENSION FUNDS WHO MAKE MONEY FROM THE REAL ESTATE INVENTMENT FUNDS.

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stupidfood's avatar

It‘s too simple.Actually, a lot of developed countries has few house to provide for new immigrant. Many people need to wait for an available rental property for months or even years in Europe, especially in those big cities.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Yes, but >why<?

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stupidfood's avatar

Too many people have arrived there after Covid-19, however, lengthy housing approval processes and land-use restrictions force these people to complete with locals for housing resources.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

And you don't think the RE industry and landlords have anything at all to do with it? Remember, less supply and more demand = higher profits.

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stupidfood's avatar

Maybe you are right. Some vested interests. But I think sclerotic bureaucracies also contribute to that.

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Michael Balaski's avatar

The high Canadian immigration numbers are likely a significant contributor to the low Canadian GDP per capita. I think there were 1 million foreign students in Canada in 2023 and many foreigners were employed in low wage jobs. As these numbers decrease it is likely that GDP per capita will likely increase.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

Sorry confused you with someone who included an interesting article on missing middle housing. I guess that’s good news for our numbers, although if they were students wouldn’t their tuition fees have contributed to GDP via universities. Not sure.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

Interesting, I hadn’t factored in the effect of the oil price, but of course we are very familiar with the impact it has on population outflows and inflows in Nova Scotia. I do think the politicians here have got the message and have changed zoning and parking regulations, are working to upgrade transit infrastructure, and universities are building more student housing. Of course none of it can happen fast enough and retrofitting old neighborhoods with new missing middle housing can be challenging (lack of sidewalks and inadequate transit). We’re seeing remarkably little strident nimbyism. People seem to realize this is a crisis (homeless encampments and overcrowding).

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Frau Katze's avatar

Why will they decrease? I doubt many foreigners are leaving.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

I am Halifax, NS, which in fairness is a pretty big city, although it’s amalgamated, so a combination of urban, suburban, and rural areas, but I think we recently hit 1 million inhabitants or close to that. I just watched our city council grappling with these issues in a two or three hour marathon session that was a testament to the patience of all involved. To its credit the city has amended its zoning laws to allow for greater density, not without opposition, but the homeless problem ( we have encampments) has forced everyone to grapple with the need for more housing, and more dense housing, and we are working hard to upgrade our transportation infrastructure along with the greater density. Some old neighborhoods in suburban and rural areas lack sidewalks and enough mass transit capacity to meet the needs of new residents. We are also reducing parking requirements, which frees up space to build, but It’s a struggle to coordinate the transit with the housing. All the transportation infrastructure should have been part of the original build out, but wasn’t, so it’s a challenge. We don’t (and I pray we never will) have to deal with your propaganda machine Fox News and talk radio here, which probably helps. Our talk radio, for the most part is downright civil in comparison, with exceptions. Our rural areas all have pretty big universities located in or nearby these communities, which probably makes a difference. The Annapolis Valley has Acadia University and an agricultural extension unit. It all helps.

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

The population of NS just recently surpassed 1,000,000.

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pts's avatar

Lack of housing and housing prices are also issues in Spain and Portugal. Four big contributors to the problem are (1) the influx of expats, especially from relatively wealthy Northern European countries; (2) the availability of the so-called (and now discontinued) Golden Visa; (3) the easy availability of the Digital Nomad visa; and (4) the conversion of permanent housing to short-term rentals, in response to the (over)tourism.

And as everywhere, local wages and salaries are not increasing nearly as fast as the cost of living.

Lisbon makes a good case study. Housing there has become so expensive that even native-born people with good educations and good jobs are getting priced out.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

Interesting that this seems to be a worldwide problem with regional variations. It must be very upsetting for locals to be priced out of their own cities by expats and tourists. We have also had problems with short term rentals, although I suspect nothing like Spain and Portugal. Our winter weather is a deterrent, and of course the attractions of Lisbon and Madrid are obvious. Has the world gone mad on real estate for a reason? The financial crisis, pandemic, and remote work all seem to have played a role. The current state of US politics is going to have repercussions for sure.

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Frau Katze's avatar

The housing costs are unbelievable in Victoria, BC. Young people can’t even afford rent. No wonder people are furious with Trudeau.

I don’t object to immigration but he brought too many too fast.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

It’s interesting, although I agree that this is a political/urban planning problem it’s remarkable how global it is. As Professor Krugman said about inflation, it happened all over the world. Politicians are definitely part of the problem and the solution, but it’s too universal to be the fault of one politician. Whatever his weaknesses and he surely had them, he was more willing to do things to help to solve the problem than some I can think of — Rob Ford

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

If you remember, there was an influx of immigration all over the world as people fled from Syria. More recently, Canada welcomed people fleeing the Russian war against Ukraine. So many countries could actually be experiencing a housing shortage for that same reason. You also have to wonder what impact short-term rentals for tourists are having on the availability of long-term rentals worldwide.

FYI: As I frequently remind my husband, Doug Ford is the Premier of Ontario. His deceased brother, Rob, had a short run as the Mayor of Toronto.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

I’m always mixing them up. My husband kindly says “they’re interchangeable like Tweedle dee and Tweedle dum, although I do think Rob (sadly departed) was more unhinged. The housing shortage is a complex global problem: Immigration, refugees, distance work, digital nomads, ex-pats, short term rentals, zoning, space wasted on parking, administrative barriers, transportation infrastructure, financialization of the housing market, failure to build affordable housing, construction sector severely depleted by financial crisis, and the belief we have lived with for what feels like forever- that the market will solve everything. It feels like that Billy Joel song 🎵 “ We didn’t start the fire”. I must say I’m pretty much done with billionaires. I have never thought capitalism was evil, but billionaires- these days…

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

The Covid pandemic affected the jousing msrket in smaller cities. Housing prices in Halifax certainly increased when many people decided they could buy a wonderful house in Halifax and work remotely. I think the price of comparables jumped by over $100,000 from one year to the next. Local buyers were being priced out of the market.

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Frau Katze's avatar

The extreme situation in my city is not common outside Canada.

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Alan Nisbet's avatar

I’m an architectural design professional in Ontario and can state that with authority the housing crisis is due to the financialization of housing (increasing the value of the property based on its potential to earn income) rather than anything else. Remove the commodification of housing and you will see pricing drop to an affordable level, quickly.

Until then, housing will be used as an economic tool to extract wealth rather than its primary goal - to provide safety and shelter for people. The result: the “housing shortage” will continue unabated despite all the legislation put in place to counter it.

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Jacqueline Brinsmead's avatar

Thus we need to introduce regulations about ownership and limit percentage of properties that can be owned by commercial entities.

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TJB's avatar

I will say as someone in his mid 20s who lives at home for financial reasons (luckily I have a great home life too) it isn't just the lack of housing but the lack of desirable housing as well. People my age (especially the college educated) gravitate towards dense, walkable neighborhoods with good public transportation and bike access as cars can cost an average of 8 grand a year. Unfortunately due to regressive, often racist, zoning codes and NIMBYs dense housing is illegal to construct in many of our cities today. Supply and demand cranks the price of housing for young people thru the roof as developers need granite countertops instead of studios to make ends meet.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

I admit I am baffled by this. The granite countertops I blame on those home shows, but why studios and one bedrooms can’t be

profitable is a mystery. I do think, as others have pointed out, this is a political problem, and the best way to influence politicians is to organize a group to advocate for zoning changes, and parking regulation changes, and transit and bike lanes. We have very active cycling, housing and transit advocacy coalitions here and it does make a difference, and it’s a great way to meet people.

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TJB's avatar

Units that give a veneer of luxury allow developers to charge more for each unit, which allows them to in turn compensate for the units they can't build in areas that have parking minimums. Other areas purposely limit minimum unit size to be more "family oriented" which obviously pushes out younger demographics with smaller family sizes.

I fully agree that community advocacy group organization is currently most effective at the local level. The best counter to NIMBYs are coordinated groups of people who are for bikes and transit. However if we want to meet our climate goals we will eventually need a president who takes the train instead of AF1 and is willing to do a photo op at an ebike factory.

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Myra Marx Ferree's avatar

This is not from Jane Fleming but from a user with a balky ipad.

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Jane Flemming's avatar

nteresting, I hadn’t factored in the effect of the oil price, but of course we are very familiar with the impact it has on population outflows and inflows in Nova Scotia. I do think the politicians here have got the message and have changed zoning and parking regulations, are working to upgrade transit infrastructure, and universities are building more student housing. Of course none of it can happen fast enough and retrofitting old neighborhoods with new missing middle housing can be challenging (lack of sidewalks and inadequate transit). We’re seeing remarkably little strident nimbyism. People seem to realize this is a crisis (homeless encampments and overcrowding).

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Jane Flemming's avatar

I heard Edmonton was doing some great things. I will take a look. We have lived in two large cities in old neighbourhoods that have that mix of housing apartment/comnercial, duplexes, triplexes and single with good mass transit, and they were beloved neighborhoods. I wish more people could experience them. There would be a lot fewer nimbys. People don’t realize that once you get sufficient density you get bookshops that sell nothing but cookbooks or mysteries and other cool shops.

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Bill Bishop's avatar

One added point. Canadians are actually much more entrepreneurial because of our social safety net. You feel able take more risks when you have something to fall back on if you fail. At age 30 I quit a good job to start my own business. I was able to make this leap because I would not lose my health insurance. It was also easier for me to hire people because I didn’t have to pay their health insurance. Capitalism with a dose of socialism works better.

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Bank of Canada BTC's avatar

Even the legacy propaganda networks of Ottawa are not going to touch trying to pull off that much of a stretch.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-entrepreneurs-shortage-solutions-1.7002171

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Thomas Carpenter's avatar

Excellent point.

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Rob Page's avatar

I appreciate your admission that Americans struggle to comprehend that other countries not only exist, but many are far better places to live than the U.S. I would direct readers to the Global Peace Index that ranks over 160 nations on a series of quality of life factors. For comparison's sake, Canada ranks 11th on the current index. The United States ranks 131st!

There's a reason Canadians are so fired up about Trump's 51st state rhetoric - life in Canada really is much, much better than life in the U.S.

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Tom McCormack's avatar

Minor point: it's Poilievre (as in your chart heading), not Polievre (as in your text). Whatever you call him (PP for short) Trump has helped we Canadians put the "attack dog" Poilievre on the back burner, hopefully for good. Keep producing the great material, Paul. I've been a fan now for more than two decades and rarely find a reason to disagree.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Now I know what to say if anyone asks me "Has Trump done >anything< good?" I can answer "he prevented Poilievre from getting elected."

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SomeNYDude (he/him)'s avatar

That will be a good thing. PP seems like trump-lite. That’s not working out well for America. PM Carney is working to remove inter province barriers, diversify trade outside the US and the Arctic North cross country connection is brilliant. Plus, he refused to meet with the Signal regime before he met with Europe and hasn’t met to date. That’s Elbows Up.

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Allen Batchelar's avatar

Spoken like a true easterner. If Carney wins and goes down his net zero route you won’t have to worry about Trump you’ll have to worry about keeping the country together. The West is tired of Eastern leaders with their minds closed to the reality of the West. Carney pretending he is a westerner is a joke. Latest polls also show that the only generation in favour of the Liberals is the Boomers. It must be Eastern Boomers because out here finding a Boomer who is voting Liberal is like looking for unicorns.

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Randy McDonald's avatar

Carney was raised in Alberta.

Also, the interest of some Albertans in purporting to speak for the wider West is amusing.

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Allen Batchelar's avatar

I was raised in Ontario. I’m not a representative of Ontario as I haven’t lived there in over 30 years and to say because I was raised there I am attuned to today’s Ontario wold be nonsense just like doing the same for Carney.

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Sarah's avatar

Trump's bullying has united Canadians and united Europeans. He is making the rest of the world stronger and China is still looking ahead and leading in green energy which America is abandoning.

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Robert Duane Shelton's avatar

If you reach a bit further back into the history book, you find that Americans have physically attacked Canada twice. And got their clock cleaned. On the second occasion, Americans burned some buildings in Toronto, and were retaliated against with the 1814 burning of the US Capitol and White House.

Another dimension of Trudeau's popularity decline was a housing crisis in Canada. Many Canadians attributed this to a surge of immigration. However, I have a different theory. Years ago, I visited Vancouver, BC, and was struck by a strange sight in the high-rise condos downtown. The windows were dark. No one lived there, because they were investment refuges for rich Chinese.

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Lee Peters's avatar

Yes, there was a surge of Hong Kong Chinese real estate purchases after 1997. The housing market in Vancouver became unaffordable for average Canadians 25 years ago. Housing affordability isn’t a recent phenomenon. The term “homelessness” dates back to at least the 1980s in the US, but the media at the time was busy covering entertainment events.

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Peter d's avatar

Which is why Canada instituted a moratorium on foreign real estate purchases.

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Frau Katze's avatar

The province has added an expensive tax for vacant homes. I suppose some rich Chinese can still afford it. Don’t know. Haven’t been to Vancouver recently.

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Thomas Patrick McGrane's avatar

I actually see weather in your data.

When I was in Junior High school, I had a very cool social studies teacher. She once told us people in hot climates live shorter lives. That shows in the data. Also, the GDP per capita may be explained by more wintry weather slowing business and productivity. As for better life satisfaction in Canada, all my long life I thought how uneventful and peaceful Canada was, absent many terrifying news reports. When I was young in the 1970's working on a metal turning lathe in a machine shop, I had some time while the machine ran a job to review ideas about life. Back then, you could homestead in Canada which means to work a wilderness land grant for years until you were granted ownership. I even designed a drop in the stream water wheel generator for low voltage electricity. I bought and read two books about how to build a log cabin including how to add chincking between the logs. But it was all for nauight at my young age when the owner put me in the R&D department as a jack of all trades technician and draftsman for new products. In my older years now, I regret not having made the move to Canada, but conversely, I enjoyed being close to my siblings around the northeast for decades and cared for my mother for years.

Oh, Canada, how the peaceful love thee, a nation deserving of a Homily. Stay holy in peace and a calm prosperity, and don't let the rage get to thee.

Trump is "Shock and Awe", a terror we don't like.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Or at least shock. Not so much awe.

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Terence J. Ollerhead's avatar

Every single day something more egregious, unspeakable, dangerous. Every single day the world waits for a line to be crossed for Americans but it doesn't happen, and you sink further and further into your autocracy.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

The pressure is building, the explosion will be massive.

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TomD's avatar

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if Trump doesn't believe Canada is real, he doesn't believe the US is real either. When he says I am the State he means it, quite literally.

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Samuel Bingham's avatar

Why would trump want to annex a country with 11 million French speakers and force citizenship upon them while simultaneously working to cast into outer darkness 11 million Spanish speakers who risked all to come here? Does he not know how seriously those darn Canucks will assert their language rights and cultural independence or is it just more evidence that he doesn't recognize anyone's rights anywhere? - Sam Bingham

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Charles Ryder's avatar

I think it's fair to say Trump doesn't possess detailed knowledge of Canadian demographics. (Nor detailed knowledge of much of anything.)

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Because he's a psychopath.

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Frau Katze's avatar

Excellent question. I doubt he’s ever thought of it.

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Stephen Miller's avatar

Excellent point about life expectancy in Alabama as compared with Canada. Speaking of life

expectancy, in Northern Virginia, where I live, life expectancy for males is about 84. In West Virginia--the Trumpiest state in the country--life expectancy for males is about 71.

Move to a red state and die.

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WinstonSmithLondonOceania's avatar

Great read. Thanks for the link. It confirms what I've always suspected - because it's so obvious - it always boils down to greed.

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Thomas Patrick McGrane's avatar

Trump's rigged Supreme Court made American women slaves after they issued the Dobbs decision, unconstitutionally ignoring the 13th amendment that prohibits slavery. Now Trump wants to enslave Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Ukraine and others.

You'd think he's the American monster.

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Nicholas Acheson's avatar

Way to go, Paul. You have me chuckling while I read your article. As a Canadian with lots of family, friends, and colleagues who live in the US, I can only hope that American voters will wake up soon, but will it be too late for Ukrainian freedom? Keep up the good work!!

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