Who’s Deranged, Exactly?
Of partisanship and economic sentiment
Donald Trump’s chief economist said something interesting the other day. Yes, the remarks by Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, were stupid, but that goes without saying. The point is that they were stupid in an interesting way.
On Fox News, Hassett was, as usual, boasting about how great the economy is, when he was asked why Americans aren’t feeling it — why the long-running Michigan index of consumer sentiment has hit its lowest level ever. He responded by claiming that the index “is being driven by Democrats who have Trump derangement syndrome.”
Well, yes indeed … someone is deranged here.
The Michigan survey tracks respondents by party, and politics clearly does affect economic perceptions. Democrats were much more positive about the economy under Biden than Republicans; they became much less positive, while Republicans became much more positive, when the White House changed hands:
At this point, however, independents’ views of the economy are similar to those of Democrats. Republican optimism, not Democratic pessimism, is out of line with the views of most Americans.
But wait, there’s more. YouGov’s surveys subdivide Republicans into those who do and those who don’t support MAGA — and the economic views of these two groups are very different. A remarkable 65 percent of non-MAGA Republicans say that the economy is getting worse, while only 11 percent say that it is getting better:
Let me present these data slightly differently:
Aside from MAGA Republicans, Americans are bunched at the upper left, with few people seeing the economy getting better and the vast majority seeing it as getting worse. Non-MAGA Republicans are much more similar in their views to independents, and even to Democrats, than they are to MAGA.
So how big is the group that believes that we have a good economy? Only 19 percent of Americans.
Given these numbers, Trump officials should conclude that they have failed in some way. The great majority of Americans — essentially everyone who isn’t a total Trump loyalist — believes that the economy is getting worse. And there are good reasons for that negativity. Inflation is way up as a result of Trump’s tariffs and his Iran war. Because of this surge in prices, real personal income has declined sharply:
And even if Trumpists believe that these numbers are somehow misleading and that the economy is really in great shape, they should acknowledge that they are failing to make their case to the American public.
Trump and his minions, however, never admit to failure. We’ve all seen that in the case of the Iran war: Trump keeps claiming that it’s a glorious victory and that reporters pointing out that it isn’t are “treasonous.”
They bring the same mindset to economic sentiment. If the public hates Trump’s economy, the problem must be with the politically deranged public, not with Trump.
Still, let’s look at it rationally. (I know, rationality has a well-known liberal bias.) The 19 percent of Americans who support MAGA, many of whom literally believe that Trump was sent by God, say that the economy is good. The other 81 percent of Americans say that it’s very bad. Which group is more likely to have economic perceptions that are warped by politics?
Seriously, who’s deranged here?
MUSICAL CODA
This right here’s where “derangement” becomes projection.
Listen, the public is not hallucinating the economy. People are looking at rent, groceries, insurance, gas, and disposable income. The small faction still calling this a good economy is not making an economic judgment. It is making a loyalty declaration.
The striking thing here in those charts is that non-MAGA Republicans are clustered with everyone else. So the divide is not really left versus right. It is reality versus regime attachment.
Once the leader becomes the measure of truth, bad numbers are treated as insults instead of information.
The receipt becomes treason. God help us.
Hassett will have to go down in history as the most clownish CEA chair ever. I will be very interested to see what kind of career he has post-Trump. If there's any justice in this world, he'll finish out his days picking up dog-ends in the public parks and living under a bridge.
But I'm sure the economy will get better! Right after the Iran war ends, which should be any minute now. And just as soon as we invade Cuba, which we'll be doing soon and for no particular reason that makes any sense. But first, there's the UFC Spectacle on the White House lawn, featuring a wide array of entertainers who are not appearing despite their acts being headlined on the posters!
MAGA!