I simply mean in which direction things were moving over the border. When I first read your comment with my sleepy eyes, I thought you were contradicting Krugman and that you were saying what Trump was saying . I have noticed MAGA starting to find us here.
However, I see I may have been the only one to read it backwards - my bad
My feeling is that we should let Trump be Trump. Impose the tariffs. Watch Canada and Mexico retaliate. No one will get hurt as much as Midwestern red state MAGAs when the supply of gas plummets if Canada cuts off oil exports, or gas prices soar because of a 25% tariff on Canadian oil. And how will Trump explain an explosion in food prices brought on by his tariffs on Mexico? This stupid move on his part could kill his dreams of a glorious reign before it gets started.
I do think that Donald has "mental" issues. He is wrong about so many things and keeps repeating the same thing over and over. He is obsessed with grievance and score settling. He does act like an old man.
He is not just wrong about small details -- he is wrong about big things and the whole premise for a proposed policy.
The mainstream media was busy pointing out the mental and physical decline of Biden, but they had no time to point out the decline of Donald.
I suppose Donald will have to "burn the place down" before anyone recognizes that something is amiss upstairs.
I saw Trump on Tuesday, trying to answer some questions thrown at him by the press He looked far older than Biden; and his confusion was embarrasingly evident.
As a 73YO, and if I can speak for many others I know, easy with that “old man” nonsense. Donald’s problems are a combination of narcissism and possibly dementia and not simply age.
BLUE midwestern state, and NO argument from me. Your statement is spot on. If I were brave enough I would be looking forward to pointing out they are getting exactly what they voted for. Sadly, we all will pay for the RAPIST President
That could be effective, if Trump voters could be relied upon to blame Trump. But GOP voters never blame Republicans for anything Republicans do or say because that equates to the voters admitting that they were wrong (i.e. that they are gullible fools whom the online betting companies can't wait to meet) and taking responsibility for their own bad acts and bad decisions. GOP voters will never ever take responsibility for themselves.
Here's your daily reminder that this guy is a useless troll who contributes nothing at all. Best to ignore. Eventually he'll find another shiny toy to distract his feeble mind.
We should, by now, not be taking Trump at his word about tariffs or anything else.
As the (faux) quote of Marcus Aurelius notes: "Ask of all things, what is its nature."
What is Trump's nature?
He is a salesman, a vindictive greedy salesman yes, but still just a salesman--a cross between theater characters aged salesman Willie Loman and uber-corrupt Volpone.
Trump sells whatever will advance his personal interest. He is corruption personified. Everything he does is a sale for personal gain, and his life's measuring stick of success is money. That is his nature.
Focused with that view of Trump in mind, might it be that, Trump threatening--but not imposing--25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico is because he wants a personal payoff of some sort from Mexico and Canada?
Focused with that view of Trump in mind, might it be that Trump stopped the Tik Tok ban for 45 days because he wants a personal payoff from China?
Or more broadly, focused with that view of Trump in mind, might it be that Trump's recently stated desire to visit China and "work things out" with Xi, is because he wants a Chinese personal payoff of some kind?
When one looks at tariffs not as "the thing itself" but as yet just another way to extort payoffs for personal gain, as an extortion racket rather than a serious national economic policy, then Trumps assertions, flip-flops, changes of subject, and bluster, all seem to fit.
And with the new Trump crypto company (world crypto usage is, by many official estimates, about 50% money laundering), this also fits. Trump's crypto company sells a "coin" (generously deemed "an asset") produced out of thin air.
If you are Scheinbaum Pardo of Mexico or Xi of China, what easier way to pay off a US President and stop his threatened tariff retaliation than to buy a few $Trump coins?
Tariffs are just today's version of a Trump's latest extortion. But at an international level.
And the public policy problem with this level of int'l corruption is that if some countries don't pay and the retaliatory tariffs are actually imposed, we citizens will pay the price for a foreign country refusing to pay blackmail to an American president.
And when February 1 comes around he will announce the level of decrease, completely fictional, of drugs and migrants to prove how just the threat of his tariffs were. And his supporters will believe every word.
That’s EXACTLY what I think is behind the tariff plan. I read somewhere that in his last term US companies that donated to trump got exemptions from tariffs. I think he wants to scale up that grift to the max. A worldwide con has just begun.
But let’s not forget that he is not just an aging salesman; he’s a sales/conman with escalating dementia. That throws another wrench into the equation.
I have seen this argument elsewhere and I think this is spot on. There's always behind the scenes dealing to benefit Trump and family. The bit coin strategy makes me think of the Mafia.
Ok - but he has said for quite awhile that he would not release the violent offenders - so that was what I meant by "doubling down."
I think he is delaying tariffs to give more bigwigs time come on bended knee to ask for exemptions if they do his bidding and also in order for the GOP in congress to not get so mad they deny his cabinet picks and suddenly realize their independence as a branch of government will be sorely needed.
Trump's picks are designed to help him consolidate power in the executive branch and once that is done, anyone in congress who gets out of line may get a notice from DOJ or FBI or something like that - I think anyway to keep them in line. Just my view.
From the Canadian side of the border, this feels like you're understating the impact.
If I was an auto industry top executive I would be completely flipping out: how are they supposed to reorganize their business around the parts going from SW Ontario into Michigan getting 25% more expensive (and that is only traversing the border once)? What about the parts that are currently crossing the border three or four times? The whole production plan is going to have to be revised. There are lots of models that are only made on one side of the border. Does Trump think that if all the assembly plants are relocated to the US that Canada will go on opening its borders to US assembled vehicles? Are the manufacturers supposed to have dedicated assembly plants on each side of the border to supply the two countries?
<br>
And don't even get me started on the effect of a 25% price increase on oil exports to US refineries, or the electricity flows into the US NE.
<br>
The Ontario premier is about to go into an election running to seek a mandate to cut off the power entirely if the tariffs are imposed (and lots of other draconian and self destructive measures as well).
<br>
This isn't going to be a little border dispute, this is going to be a trade WAR, unless we get lucky and Trump is only posturing for negotiating position.
That is what the entire Canadian political class (all parties) are trying to figure out. If it is about negotiation, what is it he actually wants?
As Paul Krugman pointed out in the piece, it certainly isn't stopping the fentanyl flows from Canada into the US, or illegal migration from Canada (both are nearly non-existent).
What I condemn about this whole discussion about trade surpluses is that nobody has forced US companies to outsource entire branches of industry. It all happened voluntarily. To blame China or other countries for this is far from logical. There was absolutely no economic necessity to destroy millions of jobs in the USA! It was pure greed, nothing else!
It is difficult not to read this as a morality tale where the markets are a stand-in for MAGA supporters. The impulse to say, “Collapse, markets, so that Trump will desist” is strong, but I think the factors influencing the markets are too complex to tell this tale. And assuming Trump would respond to a market crash by refraining from tariffs is imputing the chaos king with a level of normal logic that I would argue he does not have. It could just as well be that a market collapse would inspire him to go for 50% tariffs, because derp.
After enduring just 48 hours of this kakistocracy madness, thanks for the joyful reminder of Peter Gabriel (and Paula Cole! Tony Levin!) and the “Secret World” tour. It was a needed reminder that we still live in a world capable of producing magic.
But Trump? I used to think when he spouted ignorant nonsense about the economy that someone, surely would tell him. Apparently not - not even the markets.
Let's not forget that when China took their soybean business to South America in retaliation, thousands of Midwest soybean farmers were driven to bankruptcy and guess who had to bail them out? We should have listened to Rex Tillerson! Trump is a f______ moron!
Well, Rex Tillerson ran Exxon Mobil, one of the largest corporations in the world, and worked as Trump's Secretary of State, so I guess he's a moron in your book . . .
Had fallen a few days behind with your newsletters (along with the always excellent Heather Cox Richardson's). So I just spent the last hour getting up to speed. What occurred to me, arriving at your new offering today is that Trump could care less if he implements anything or not. What matters most for him is aligning his message with is his street-smart understanding of the human psychology. He's an entertainer, seeking ratings. When ratings take a dive, 'the writers' will revamp the storyline. He's the manifestation of a (slim) majority of the biases extant in our society today. Those initial bold statements are that are required to build a base. His base doesn't follow up and ask for a demonstration of results (there are exceptions when he does follow through -- but again, that's tied to 'ratings'). He just needs to ensure that that first impression --that triggers confirmation bias for his base-- remains intact. I'm drawing a direct correlation between the success of his type of rhetoric and the low literacy rates in the US. Perhaps a bit off-topic, but file this under speculation of the roller coaster this administration has us all on. :)
Recently, Donald has been obsessed with William McKinley. Yesterday, he signed an order changing the name of Denali back to Mount McKInley. He loves McKInley because when McKinley was President the federal government was so small that it could operate on the income from tariffs and excise taxes. I suppose that Donald wants to shrink government to a size where it could be supported by income from tariffs. Changing Denali gives Donald a "twofer." He gets to honor his hero, McKinley. He also gets a dig at President Obama who is the one who signed the executive order changing Mount McKinley to Denali some years ago.
It is amazing that Donald is wrong about so many things. Professor Krugman mentioned that Donald believes "huge amounts of drugs and immigrants are coming across the border from Canada'" and that is not true. He also claims that migrants are mostly rapists and murders. Migrants' crime rates are actually slightly lower that crime rates for American citizens in general or so I read. Many MAGA folks hate migrants (among a long list of hates) so when Donald says that they are all murders that is music to their ears.
It is a strange world. They say that in the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is King. Does that mean that people who believe in facts and reality and treating everyone honestly and with respect have an advantage?
It's as if the lowest IQ kid (who is also the mean, resentful bully, after all--he'll never be good enough!) got to take over your school and RULE you! "In Your Eyes" is a great motto for how it turns out.
"True, Donald Trump didn’t impose tariffs on day one. But he did say, more or less unambiguously, that he plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1 unless they stop massive flows of migrants and drugs across their borders. This will be a hard demand to meet, because to a large extent those massive flows exist only in Trump’s imagination. Canada in particular will find it hard to “stop” massive border violations because they aren’t happening; both illegal crossings and drug smuggling across our northern border are in fact trivial."
This is Drumph, he'll say he'll impose massive tariffs if certain conditions aren't met. As the deadline approaches he'll say the demands were met and that we should kneel before our lord god Drumph and praise his toughness and negotiating acumen. Imaginary crisis caused, imaginary crisis resolved. And maga will fall for it.
Canada has a huge issue with guns and drugs coming over its southern border. What is the US doing about that?
Also, what hardly ever gets mentioned in the news that over 70% (!) of the domestically produced firearms are illegally smuggled to Mexico, and that's killing lots of Mexican people (Mexico has much stricter gun laws than the US has.) https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/infographics-arms-trafficking-across-us-mexico-border
There is also legal export to Mexico. And nobody wants to stop that
Why would you want to harm a US gun industry??
On the other hand, how do we monetize the damage the gun industry does?
You might want to clarify that you mean coming over their southern border "from the USA"
What other southern border does Canada have?
I simply mean in which direction things were moving over the border. When I first read your comment with my sleepy eyes, I thought you were contradicting Krugman and that you were saying what Trump was saying . I have noticed MAGA starting to find us here.
However, I see I may have been the only one to read it backwards - my bad
Sleepy eyes will do that every time! Thanks for the clarification.
Canada also has a northern border with the U.S.
True. But most issues are south
Maine
Link?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/harper-trump-border-drugs-guns-1.7432991
Yup. We also arm all the drug gangs in Mexico
My feeling is that we should let Trump be Trump. Impose the tariffs. Watch Canada and Mexico retaliate. No one will get hurt as much as Midwestern red state MAGAs when the supply of gas plummets if Canada cuts off oil exports, or gas prices soar because of a 25% tariff on Canadian oil. And how will Trump explain an explosion in food prices brought on by his tariffs on Mexico? This stupid move on his part could kill his dreams of a glorious reign before it gets started.
Trump's glorious reign ended yesterday when pardoned the January 6th mob. He is mentally deranged, angry and bitter. Honestly people voted for this?
Seriously! Taking down Milley's portrait in the Pentagon?! How small can he get?
Ask Stormy.
Have nothing to say, always snark about Stormy.
Firing the female Coast Guard Commandant was damn close.
I do think that Donald has "mental" issues. He is wrong about so many things and keeps repeating the same thing over and over. He is obsessed with grievance and score settling. He does act like an old man.
He is not just wrong about small details -- he is wrong about big things and the whole premise for a proposed policy.
The mainstream media was busy pointing out the mental and physical decline of Biden, but they had no time to point out the decline of Donald.
I suppose Donald will have to "burn the place down" before anyone recognizes that something is amiss upstairs.
I saw Trump on Tuesday, trying to answer some questions thrown at him by the press He looked far older than Biden; and his confusion was embarrasingly evident.
As a 73YO, and if I can speak for many others I know, easy with that “old man” nonsense. Donald’s problems are a combination of narcissism and possibly dementia and not simply age.
Yes, people voted for this.
Hmm, as someone in the BLUE midwestern state that borders Canada, I have no interest in going down with the maga ship.
BLUE midwestern state, and NO argument from me. Your statement is spot on. If I were brave enough I would be looking forward to pointing out they are getting exactly what they voted for. Sadly, we all will pay for the RAPIST President
This is basically the long version of FAFO (-F Around, Find Out).
I don’t disagree with you but I’m not sure the cultists will blame Trump no matter what.
That could be effective, if Trump voters could be relied upon to blame Trump. But GOP voters never blame Republicans for anything Republicans do or say because that equates to the voters admitting that they were wrong (i.e. that they are gullible fools whom the online betting companies can't wait to meet) and taking responsibility for their own bad acts and bad decisions. GOP voters will never ever take responsibility for themselves.
Gibberish
Only to subhuman meth addicts like you.
Change your diaper
I don't own any unlike you. You need to stop chimpin out, subhuman straggot.
Here's your daily reminder that this guy is a useless troll who contributes nothing at all. Best to ignore. Eventually he'll find another shiny toy to distract his feeble mind.
Pity substack doesn't have 'mute' button.
We should, by now, not be taking Trump at his word about tariffs or anything else.
As the (faux) quote of Marcus Aurelius notes: "Ask of all things, what is its nature."
What is Trump's nature?
He is a salesman, a vindictive greedy salesman yes, but still just a salesman--a cross between theater characters aged salesman Willie Loman and uber-corrupt Volpone.
Trump sells whatever will advance his personal interest. He is corruption personified. Everything he does is a sale for personal gain, and his life's measuring stick of success is money. That is his nature.
Focused with that view of Trump in mind, might it be that, Trump threatening--but not imposing--25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico is because he wants a personal payoff of some sort from Mexico and Canada?
Focused with that view of Trump in mind, might it be that Trump stopped the Tik Tok ban for 45 days because he wants a personal payoff from China?
Or more broadly, focused with that view of Trump in mind, might it be that Trump's recently stated desire to visit China and "work things out" with Xi, is because he wants a Chinese personal payoff of some kind?
When one looks at tariffs not as "the thing itself" but as yet just another way to extort payoffs for personal gain, as an extortion racket rather than a serious national economic policy, then Trumps assertions, flip-flops, changes of subject, and bluster, all seem to fit.
And with the new Trump crypto company (world crypto usage is, by many official estimates, about 50% money laundering), this also fits. Trump's crypto company sells a "coin" (generously deemed "an asset") produced out of thin air.
If you are Scheinbaum Pardo of Mexico or Xi of China, what easier way to pay off a US President and stop his threatened tariff retaliation than to buy a few $Trump coins?
Tariffs are just today's version of a Trump's latest extortion. But at an international level.
And the public policy problem with this level of int'l corruption is that if some countries don't pay and the retaliatory tariffs are actually imposed, we citizens will pay the price for a foreign country refusing to pay blackmail to an American president.
And when February 1 comes around he will announce the level of decrease, completely fictional, of drugs and migrants to prove how just the threat of his tariffs were. And his supporters will believe every word.
Ah yes. I posted same thing just now. Didn’t see ur post! I’m betting that’s exactly what he’ll do & MAGATS will cheer wildly.
That’s EXACTLY what I think is behind the tariff plan. I read somewhere that in his last term US companies that donated to trump got exemptions from tariffs. I think he wants to scale up that grift to the max. A worldwide con has just begun.
But let’s not forget that he is not just an aging salesman; he’s a sales/conman with escalating dementia. That throws another wrench into the equation.
Excellent summation.
I have seen this argument elsewhere and I think this is spot on. There's always behind the scenes dealing to benefit Trump and family. The bit coin strategy makes me think of the Mafia.
I think the extortion racket thesis partially explains things, but the biggest reason for trump’s behavior is that he’s dumb
OMG so dark and so spot on. The grift is a feature, not a bug, and partly dependent on The Felon's whims on any given day.
All about the Benjamins
I disagree.
One reason we saw some flip-flopping last time was because he was surrounded by cooler heads who could talk him out of ridiculous stuff.
No more.
I would not be surprised if he ups the tariffs and does not abandon them.
What ever bad and concerning thing he says this time, will likely be even worse.
Many promises that were made simply to get elected like brining down grocery prices will be ignored however, because he does not care about that.
When he says he loves tariffs, I believe he will not only do it but double down, just like he did with the J 6 releases.
I was referring to Trump's very recent flip flopping on tariffs, namely, he promised to impose tariffs on Day One. He did not.
Also Trump did not double down on the J6 releases. He has said he would do this for a long time. It was a campaign promise.
To wit, a news headline from March 12, 2024: "Trump Promises to Free Jan 6 Rioters On First Day Back In White House If Re-Elected.
Ok - but he has said for quite awhile that he would not release the violent offenders - so that was what I meant by "doubling down."
I think he is delaying tariffs to give more bigwigs time come on bended knee to ask for exemptions if they do his bidding and also in order for the GOP in congress to not get so mad they deny his cabinet picks and suddenly realize their independence as a branch of government will be sorely needed.
Trump's picks are designed to help him consolidate power in the executive branch and once that is done, anyone in congress who gets out of line may get a notice from DOJ or FBI or something like that - I think anyway to keep them in line. Just my view.
From the Canadian side of the border, this feels like you're understating the impact.
If I was an auto industry top executive I would be completely flipping out: how are they supposed to reorganize their business around the parts going from SW Ontario into Michigan getting 25% more expensive (and that is only traversing the border once)? What about the parts that are currently crossing the border three or four times? The whole production plan is going to have to be revised. There are lots of models that are only made on one side of the border. Does Trump think that if all the assembly plants are relocated to the US that Canada will go on opening its borders to US assembled vehicles? Are the manufacturers supposed to have dedicated assembly plants on each side of the border to supply the two countries?
<br>
And don't even get me started on the effect of a 25% price increase on oil exports to US refineries, or the electricity flows into the US NE.
<br>
The Ontario premier is about to go into an election running to seek a mandate to cut off the power entirely if the tariffs are imposed (and lots of other draconian and self destructive measures as well).
<br>
This isn't going to be a little border dispute, this is going to be a trade WAR, unless we get lucky and Trump is only posturing for negotiating position.
<br>
https://economics.td.com/ca-canada-us-trade-balance#:~:text=Canada%20is%20the%20largest%20export,balanced%20between%20the%202%20nations.
Which brings up the question, negotiating for what? Ritual obeisance?
That is what the entire Canadian political class (all parties) are trying to figure out. If it is about negotiation, what is it he actually wants?
As Paul Krugman pointed out in the piece, it certainly isn't stopping the fentanyl flows from Canada into the US, or illegal migration from Canada (both are nearly non-existent).
Wait, didn't Trump's last go-around with tariffs result in a huge taxpayer funded bailout of the US agriculture sector?
I believe that's called socialism which the dullards who voted for him despise. Go figure.
What I condemn about this whole discussion about trade surpluses is that nobody has forced US companies to outsource entire branches of industry. It all happened voluntarily. To blame China or other countries for this is far from logical. There was absolutely no economic necessity to destroy millions of jobs in the USA! It was pure greed, nothing else!
Whatever the issue, real or fake, count on the GOP/Trump to choose the worst option.
It is difficult not to read this as a morality tale where the markets are a stand-in for MAGA supporters. The impulse to say, “Collapse, markets, so that Trump will desist” is strong, but I think the factors influencing the markets are too complex to tell this tale. And assuming Trump would respond to a market crash by refraining from tariffs is imputing the chaos king with a level of normal logic that I would argue he does not have. It could just as well be that a market collapse would inspire him to go for 50% tariffs, because derp.
Suspect not. Trump depends psychologically on a few validators, the market being one. He wants the billioaires (and the autocrats) to like him.
Assertions without proof are easy.
Come on, assertions without proof are what comment sections are for.
Tech Bros who now have outsized input have a mantra, “Move fast and break things.” What will be broken is US economy and US citizens.
One of the most fact filled and useful newsletters out there! Thank you!
After enduring just 48 hours of this kakistocracy madness, thanks for the joyful reminder of Peter Gabriel (and Paula Cole! Tony Levin!) and the “Secret World” tour. It was a needed reminder that we still live in a world capable of producing magic.
But Trump? I used to think when he spouted ignorant nonsense about the economy that someone, surely would tell him. Apparently not - not even the markets.
Let's not forget that when China took their soybean business to South America in retaliation, thousands of Midwest soybean farmers were driven to bankruptcy and guess who had to bail them out? We should have listened to Rex Tillerson! Trump is a f______ moron!
Yet they still voted for him. Sheesh.
Name calling makes you a "moron."
Well, Rex Tillerson ran Exxon Mobil, one of the largest corporations in the world, and worked as Trump's Secretary of State, so I guess he's a moron in your book . . .
Well. anyone who works for or aids Trump is a fascist, Mr. Corporate.
Had fallen a few days behind with your newsletters (along with the always excellent Heather Cox Richardson's). So I just spent the last hour getting up to speed. What occurred to me, arriving at your new offering today is that Trump could care less if he implements anything or not. What matters most for him is aligning his message with is his street-smart understanding of the human psychology. He's an entertainer, seeking ratings. When ratings take a dive, 'the writers' will revamp the storyline. He's the manifestation of a (slim) majority of the biases extant in our society today. Those initial bold statements are that are required to build a base. His base doesn't follow up and ask for a demonstration of results (there are exceptions when he does follow through -- but again, that's tied to 'ratings'). He just needs to ensure that that first impression --that triggers confirmation bias for his base-- remains intact. I'm drawing a direct correlation between the success of his type of rhetoric and the low literacy rates in the US. Perhaps a bit off-topic, but file this under speculation of the roller coaster this administration has us all on. :)
Recently, Donald has been obsessed with William McKinley. Yesterday, he signed an order changing the name of Denali back to Mount McKInley. He loves McKInley because when McKinley was President the federal government was so small that it could operate on the income from tariffs and excise taxes. I suppose that Donald wants to shrink government to a size where it could be supported by income from tariffs. Changing Denali gives Donald a "twofer." He gets to honor his hero, McKinley. He also gets a dig at President Obama who is the one who signed the executive order changing Mount McKinley to Denali some years ago.
It is amazing that Donald is wrong about so many things. Professor Krugman mentioned that Donald believes "huge amounts of drugs and immigrants are coming across the border from Canada'" and that is not true. He also claims that migrants are mostly rapists and murders. Migrants' crime rates are actually slightly lower that crime rates for American citizens in general or so I read. Many MAGA folks hate migrants (among a long list of hates) so when Donald says that they are all murders that is music to their ears.
It is a strange world. They say that in the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is King. Does that mean that people who believe in facts and reality and treating everyone honestly and with respect have an advantage?
Donald does not understand that what might have been a good policy in 1900, is not a good policy today.
I sometimes wonder if telling him McKinley was assassinated might cause him to choose another president to emulate.
It's as if the lowest IQ kid (who is also the mean, resentful bully, after all--he'll never be good enough!) got to take over your school and RULE you! "In Your Eyes" is a great motto for how it turns out.
Paragraph 3:
"True, Donald Trump didn’t impose tariffs on day one. But he did say, more or less unambiguously, that he plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1 unless they stop massive flows of migrants and drugs across their borders. This will be a hard demand to meet, because to a large extent those massive flows exist only in Trump’s imagination. Canada in particular will find it hard to “stop” massive border violations because they aren’t happening; both illegal crossings and drug smuggling across our northern border are in fact trivial."
This is Drumph, he'll say he'll impose massive tariffs if certain conditions aren't met. As the deadline approaches he'll say the demands were met and that we should kneel before our lord god Drumph and praise his toughness and negotiating acumen. Imaginary crisis caused, imaginary crisis resolved. And maga will fall for it.