Jimmy Carter’s presidency was harshly judged by an undiscerning, impatient electorate and a biased pundit class to be far from the best president America has had, but now in the fullness of time we have come to realize that he was the finest, most honest and most decent human being ever to serve in that role. He resisted the temptation to start a war over a hostage crisis that was destined to be resolved without loss of life. He brought the Federal Budget into balance. He appointed the Federal Reserve Chairman who would go on to defeat inflation, although the work required would outlive his presidency and the economic triumph would be ascribed to his successor.
And Reagan had his campaign manager in 1980 meet with Iranians in secret, probably, and work to delay the release of the hostages until after the election. See 'Den of Spies' by Craig Unger for all the details.
Reagan’s campaign manager was not just any old political operative, he was former OSS master spy William “Wild Bill” Casey. Casey was an unprincipled manipulator who arranged to have Carter’s debate prep book stolen. That greatly helped Reagan win the debate with Carter — by cheating. (In stark contrast when Gore’s campaign received a stolen copy of Bush’s debate prep book they immediately turned it over to the FBI and the person responsible wound up doing time. ) Casey was rewarded by becoming Reagan’s CIA Director.
“It’s All but Settled: The Reagan Campaign Delayed the Release of the Iranian Hostages
Suspicions have long swirled around unscrupulous campaign manager William Casey. We believe the evidence is now overwhelming.”
I still think Casey was behind Iran/Contra, killed himself because he knew he would be next to be called to testify and he did not have "plausible deniability." He was the link that led directly to Reagan.
Yes indeed, the Iran-hostage thing was -- in my dim memory -- the big negative vibe. Especially after the horrible luck of the dust-storm-crashed attempt at rescue.
That’s overly generous to Trump. For his faults, Reagan at least understood and usually honored the Constitution, Iran contra aside. He also understood who our allies were. Trump is a wannabe fascist wrecking ball.
Whenever I had the opportunity in 1980, I pointed out that Reagan was senile (not having been indoctrinated at that time to the more genteel word "dementia"). No one seemed to take me seriously, but 10 years later...
My qualifications? My grandmother had died 11 years earlier with dementia. I had recognized the signs in my mother, who ultimately died with dementia more than 25 years later. My sister and I are currently experiencing symptoms.
I have pondered the idea of changing my name to Cassandra.
I remember Reagan berating Carter for the amount of debt Carter added during his term. Reagan then proceeded to be the King of Debt with a 161% change in total debt vs. Carter about 30%.
Reagan appointed some awful people to his Cabinet, James Watt and Anne Gorsuch (yes that Gorsuch) to name two.
He set the country on the delusional path of trickle down economics (cut taex, spend more) that haunts us to this day, ignored the AIDS crisis, turned away from renewable energy, and helped ignite an anti-government fever.
Carter was unlucky. Democrats gave him a lot of trouble (Teddy Kennedy). Had the Iran hostage rescue mission succeeded then he might have won. Our loss.
I guess “are you better off than you were 4 years ago?” is the wrong question to ask when visiting the polling booth. It can derail policies that are meant to work over the long term and reward the incompetent who are simply lucky.
Somehow, “conventional wisdom” has come to believe the U.S. President runs the private economy. This falsehood is amplified by politicians on both sides, who take full credit for good economic times and tag their incumbent opponents for recessions, supply chain screwups and exogenous shocks (in the old days OPEC and more recently Covid and the supply chain mess along with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine) causing inflation. The media dutifully reports the politicians’ narrative about the President running the economy and there’s no pushback or critique of this assertion from the political players, or from the media.
And that's why a smart politician both invests for long term economic success, as Biden did, and ALSO sends out "stimulus" payments with his name on it in two-inch-high letters - BIDEN should have had his name on those. You need both.
Don't forget that Reagan was negotiating with Iran to stall the release of the hostages BEFORE the election, and used the hostage issue to win the election. Had Carter been able to secure the release of the hostages without Reagan's interference, would Reagan have had a chance? Had we stayed on the energy course set by Carter, (Carter put solar panels on the White House in the 70's, and Reagan removed them) would we have as severe global warming as we do now?
Thanks for today's Wonk-Out. Taking nothing away from President Biden, it's good to remember that not too long ago we had a president of Jimmy Carter's high moral character and humanity. Best wishes for the New Year. May God help us all get through what's coming.
Carter gave us Volcker, deregulation, tax reform, and (mostly) a declining deficit (as % of GDP), plausibly laying the groundwork for the great moderation. Why don't conservatives love him?
They were ravenous to get Reagan as president, and have held him up as the shining example of conservative policy strength and success ever since. I never cared for him nor his policies, which I think laid the groundwork for the jaw dropping wealth inequality that seems to be taken for granted nowadays. But enough about him.
Jimmy Carter is one of the Greats. He will be sorely missed and fondly remembered.
I don’t remember what Carter’s tax reform was, but it was under Reagan that the top marginal rate was lowered to, I think it was 28%—I remember someone writing about hoping one day to be in the same tax bracket as (I forget which multimillionaire), but never expected it would happen that way. Also there was that brief shining moment when capital gains were taxed at the same rate as ordinary income (it didn’t last, obviously).
The relevant numbers that made people feel good about Reagan were the downturn in inflation and interest rates, and also unemployment, the last being the most significant for someone who had been unemployed for a while and then found steady work in the 80s. It was, as you say, mostly luck that the timing worked out as it did. I don’t think “right wing hagiography” had anything to do with people’s positive attitudes toward Reagan, though; prior to 1980 most people who cared about politics viewed him as a right-wing nut, the less political just remembered him hawking Borax on TV. The shocks of 1980 doomed Carter and set up his successor to look good by comparison, Reagan was particularly skilled at making the most of that opportunity. Surviving the assassination attempt the way he did impressed people and raised his popularity.
There wasn't a tax reform. The Kemp-Roth Tax Bill of 1981 lowered the top rate from 70% to 50%. Subsequent bills in 1986 and beyond lowered the top rate to eventually 28%.
Doesn't matter what the top rate is as long as tax accountants perform their schemes. The IRS reports that about 4 trillion (trillion with a T) USD are sitting in overseas accounts, mostly in UK tax shelters. Think what 10% of that would do for normal Americans.
The adagio had me crying by 0:20. I feel bad that Samuel Barber is mainly known for this one thing but it’s probably the most emotionally moving piece that will ever be written.
Let the Democrats not draw the wrong lessons from their recent defeat. Bidenomics worked-wage growth outpacing inflation, substantial investments in US based chip manufacturing and green energy initiatives, economic inequality halved, antitrust enforcement increased. These are all positive developments that unfortunately were outpaced by inflation; inflation that proved to be transitory. While Trump is claiming credit for the positives effects of Biden economic initiatives and dodging blame for his hair brained plans, history will regard Joe Biden much more favorably than the electorate of 2024
Republicans were very successful in instilling the certainty in people that anything bad they remembered happened under Carter. I graduated college in May 1983 and on the AFL=Cio building in DC where the unemployment rate was always displayed it was over 10%, yet well into the 1990s I had people tell me I was crazy when I said this--that that was under Carter and it was never that high during the Reagan years.
And it was not arms for hostages it was weapons sales to Iran years after the hostage crisis to raise and who divert funds to the Contras in Nicaragua to get around the law banning assistance to them. They sold weapons to an enemy and used the money for illegal purposes.
This should be the first line in any remembrance of Reagan. He illegally sold arms to terrorists to fund secret dirty wars in Central America that caused great human suffering and kept the region politically and financially unstable for decades. Not a good man, IMO.
"So let’s honor Jimmy Carter, who was everything these people aren’t."
Love the new format - the dopamine hit from friendly social media (BlueSky) combined with the careful, informative argument (Substack).
Jimmy Carter’s presidency was harshly judged by an undiscerning, impatient electorate and a biased pundit class to be far from the best president America has had, but now in the fullness of time we have come to realize that he was the finest, most honest and most decent human being ever to serve in that role. He resisted the temptation to start a war over a hostage crisis that was destined to be resolved without loss of life. He brought the Federal Budget into balance. He appointed the Federal Reserve Chairman who would go on to defeat inflation, although the work required would outlive his presidency and the economic triumph would be ascribed to his successor.
RIP, James Earl Carter.
And Raygun traded arms for hostages.
And Reagan had his campaign manager in 1980 meet with Iranians in secret, probably, and work to delay the release of the hostages until after the election. See 'Den of Spies' by Craig Unger for all the details.
Reagan’s campaign manager was not just any old political operative, he was former OSS master spy William “Wild Bill” Casey. Casey was an unprincipled manipulator who arranged to have Carter’s debate prep book stolen. That greatly helped Reagan win the debate with Carter — by cheating. (In stark contrast when Gore’s campaign received a stolen copy of Bush’s debate prep book they immediately turned it over to the FBI and the person responsible wound up doing time. ) Casey was rewarded by becoming Reagan’s CIA Director.
“It’s All but Settled: The Reagan Campaign Delayed the Release of the Iranian Hostages
Suspicions have long swirled around unscrupulous campaign manager William Casey. We believe the evidence is now overwhelming.”
https://newrepublic.com/article/172324/its-settled-reagan-campaign-delayed-release-iranian-hostages
I still think Casey was behind Iran/Contra, killed himself because he knew he would be next to be called to testify and he did not have "plausible deniability." He was the link that led directly to Reagan.
Or the twilight confession of Ben Barnes:
https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/ben-barnes-john-connally-iran-hostages-jimmy-carter-ronald-reagan-october-surprise/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/18/us/politics/jimmy-carter-october-surprise-iran-hostages.html?unlocked_article_code=1.lU4.eKGm.bPGhF70WN5z3&smid=url-share
Yes indeed, the Iran-hostage thing was -- in my dim memory -- the big negative vibe. Especially after the horrible luck of the dust-storm-crashed attempt at rescue.
media played it up; the resolution after election was confirmation of Reagan interference
Nixon and Kissinger bollixed the Paris peace talks in 1968
Reagan and Bush I kept the hostages in Iran in 1980
Bush II was given the Presidency by the Supremes in 2000
And now we have Trmp
Ain't "democracy" grand?
Yes. It actually is grand. It's our best hope. We can correct the tilting, sinking ship if we can continue to have free and fair elections.
A great deal of the electorate are fools, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. It takes years.
Reagan was Trump with a smile.
That’s overly generous to Trump. For his faults, Reagan at least understood and usually honored the Constitution, Iran contra aside. He also understood who our allies were. Trump is a wannabe fascist wrecking ball.
You know nothing about Reagan.
"To be ignorant of what occurred before you were born is to remain always a child.”
------Cicero
Whenever I had the opportunity in 1980, I pointed out that Reagan was senile (not having been indoctrinated at that time to the more genteel word "dementia"). No one seemed to take me seriously, but 10 years later...
My qualifications? My grandmother had died 11 years earlier with dementia. I had recognized the signs in my mother, who ultimately died with dementia more than 25 years later. My sister and I are currently experiencing symptoms.
I have pondered the idea of changing my name to Cassandra.
I'm so sorry you and your family have all this to deal with! I hope you and your sister do as well as possible.
Nonsense. In 1980 no one suggested this. You are pretending.
Please provide facts to back up your statement — not insults.
And better hair.
I remember Reagan berating Carter for the amount of debt Carter added during his term. Reagan then proceeded to be the King of Debt with a 161% change in total debt vs. Carter about 30%.
Reagan appointed some awful people to his Cabinet, James Watt and Anne Gorsuch (yes that Gorsuch) to name two.
He set the country on the delusional path of trickle down economics (cut taex, spend more) that haunts us to this day, ignored the AIDS crisis, turned away from renewable energy, and helped ignite an anti-government fever.
Carter was unlucky. Democrats gave him a lot of trouble (Teddy Kennedy). Had the Iran hostage rescue mission succeeded then he might have won. Our loss.
I guess “are you better off than you were 4 years ago?” is the wrong question to ask when visiting the polling booth. It can derail policies that are meant to work over the long term and reward the incompetent who are simply lucky.
Somehow, “conventional wisdom” has come to believe the U.S. President runs the private economy. This falsehood is amplified by politicians on both sides, who take full credit for good economic times and tag their incumbent opponents for recessions, supply chain screwups and exogenous shocks (in the old days OPEC and more recently Covid and the supply chain mess along with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine) causing inflation. The media dutifully reports the politicians’ narrative about the President running the economy and there’s no pushback or critique of this assertion from the political players, or from the media.
We are well and truly f***ed.
And that's why a smart politician both invests for long term economic success, as Biden did, and ALSO sends out "stimulus" payments with his name on it in two-inch-high letters - BIDEN should have had his name on those. You need both.
Your guess is woefully . . . meaningless.
Jimmy Carter was a great man. Maybe the greatest man to ever hold that office.
Don't forget that Reagan was negotiating with Iran to stall the release of the hostages BEFORE the election, and used the hostage issue to win the election. Had Carter been able to secure the release of the hostages without Reagan's interference, would Reagan have had a chance? Had we stayed on the energy course set by Carter, (Carter put solar panels on the White House in the 70's, and Reagan removed them) would we have as severe global warming as we do now?
I remember that. Those bastards.
Truly.
Thanks for today's Wonk-Out. Taking nothing away from President Biden, it's good to remember that not too long ago we had a president of Jimmy Carter's high moral character and humanity. Best wishes for the New Year. May God help us all get through what's coming.
Carter gave us Volcker, deregulation, tax reform, and (mostly) a declining deficit (as % of GDP), plausibly laying the groundwork for the great moderation. Why don't conservatives love him?
They were ravenous to get Reagan as president, and have held him up as the shining example of conservative policy strength and success ever since. I never cared for him nor his policies, which I think laid the groundwork for the jaw dropping wealth inequality that seems to be taken for granted nowadays. But enough about him.
Jimmy Carter is one of the Greats. He will be sorely missed and fondly remembered.
I don’t remember what Carter’s tax reform was, but it was under Reagan that the top marginal rate was lowered to, I think it was 28%—I remember someone writing about hoping one day to be in the same tax bracket as (I forget which multimillionaire), but never expected it would happen that way. Also there was that brief shining moment when capital gains were taxed at the same rate as ordinary income (it didn’t last, obviously).
The relevant numbers that made people feel good about Reagan were the downturn in inflation and interest rates, and also unemployment, the last being the most significant for someone who had been unemployed for a while and then found steady work in the 80s. It was, as you say, mostly luck that the timing worked out as it did. I don’t think “right wing hagiography” had anything to do with people’s positive attitudes toward Reagan, though; prior to 1980 most people who cared about politics viewed him as a right-wing nut, the less political just remembered him hawking Borax on TV. The shocks of 1980 doomed Carter and set up his successor to look good by comparison, Reagan was particularly skilled at making the most of that opportunity. Surviving the assassination attempt the way he did impressed people and raised his popularity.
There wasn't a tax reform. The Kemp-Roth Tax Bill of 1981 lowered the top rate from 70% to 50%. Subsequent bills in 1986 and beyond lowered the top rate to eventually 28%.
Doesn't matter what the top rate is as long as tax accountants perform their schemes. The IRS reports that about 4 trillion (trillion with a T) USD are sitting in overseas accounts, mostly in UK tax shelters. Think what 10% of that would do for normal Americans.
Hence the benefit of replacing income-based taxes with a Georgist land value tax, which cannot be thus evaded.
Reagan was famous for the "trickle down economics' as proposed by whoever it was the policy director then.
Only it was in reality "Pissed on" economics that resulted.
We haven't been the same. Especially the air traffic controllers.
Carter was the most under-rated man in the office. Far better than most of his successors.
PS-lovely music selection.
The adagio had me crying by 0:20. I feel bad that Samuel Barber is mainly known for this one thing but it’s probably the most emotionally moving piece that will ever be written.
He was a quintessentially decent man. Your musical coda is lovely and fitting.
Let the Democrats not draw the wrong lessons from their recent defeat. Bidenomics worked-wage growth outpacing inflation, substantial investments in US based chip manufacturing and green energy initiatives, economic inequality halved, antitrust enforcement increased. These are all positive developments that unfortunately were outpaced by inflation; inflation that proved to be transitory. While Trump is claiming credit for the positives effects of Biden economic initiatives and dodging blame for his hair brained plans, history will regard Joe Biden much more favorably than the electorate of 2024
“Economic inequality halved” — please explain.
Poverty fell among single women with children. But the recent loss of the child tax credit has undone the gains we made during the pandemic.
Thanks for your reply. I still don’t understand how “economic inequality halved” can actually be claimed during our current gilded age.
Republicans were very successful in instilling the certainty in people that anything bad they remembered happened under Carter. I graduated college in May 1983 and on the AFL=Cio building in DC where the unemployment rate was always displayed it was over 10%, yet well into the 1990s I had people tell me I was crazy when I said this--that that was under Carter and it was never that high during the Reagan years.
And it was not arms for hostages it was weapons sales to Iran years after the hostage crisis to raise and who divert funds to the Contras in Nicaragua to get around the law banning assistance to them. They sold weapons to an enemy and used the money for illegal purposes.
This should be the first line in any remembrance of Reagan. He illegally sold arms to terrorists to fund secret dirty wars in Central America that caused great human suffering and kept the region politically and financially unstable for decades. Not a good man, IMO.
I admire the mere openness of this sentence: “Luck, then, plays a big role in politics.” Thanks, Paul.
R.I.P., President Carter