It would be helpful to phrase things in a way that puts the focus on what’s actually going on. Calling this a trade war is unhelpful because it’s not, it’s a performance to distract from the true intent which is the income redistribution, reducing progressive income tax and replacing it with a regressive sales tax.
Trump is not actually trying to eliminate the trade deficit (a dumb idea anyway).
Trump is not actually trying to take on China for their bad actions (arguably a good idea but he doesn’t actually care about what China does). Trump goes soft on China every chance he gets just like with his bro Putin.
Trump is trying to redistribute national income away from the poorest and to the richest.
Everything else is performative, the rest is just a distraction to get you talk about other things. Even on this blog I don’t believe there’s been one post just about the regressive taxation, every mention of it is in the context of trade policy, but trade policy isn’t the real issue.
The Meidas Touch has done an amazing job of building an alternative media network, one that surpasses figures like Joe Rogan. Great, practical insights.
Their Ben Meiselas today issued a warning about the President-
"When Trump returns from his Middle East bribe trip, I feel he will ramp up the attacks on independent media like us. I believe his next move is trying to incite some incident where he can declare martial law and turn the military against the media and the people. I don’t say this to scare you—I say this so we can prepare."
THE PARADE. IT'S A SETUP. There will be an "insurrection." Note how they will crow about it using our language against us. They will instigate actual violence and blame opposition. They are going to orchestrate a reverse Capitol riot. That is the distraction he desperately needs. Some of us have been trying to sound this alarm for weeks. NO PARADE PROTESTS!! STAY AWAY. It's going to happen anyway, though.
You are not far off. All Trump needs is a large scale protest where his agent provocateurs (proud boyz, neo nazis, etc.) can smash some retail windows, start a few fires and it will be the trigger for Trump to legally invoke a series of draconian suspensions of our rights under the constitution and declare a martial law that only he can end. Hitler and the Nazis did this and it worked pretty well for them.
However, I have long held that economic boycott is the only way we can fight back. People say it does not work. I say Tesla shows the power.
Any moron can find a list of commercial outlets and corporations who have a historical right wing bent. Just don’t buy their stuff. There are plenty of them to choose from. You don’t even have to share who you choose to boycott.
I'm afraid that one day I'll be reading about the destruction of a radio station on the Canadian border (that was Hitler's false flag excuse for invading Poland). Fortunately, DonnyJon doesn't read, so he probably hasn't heard about that one.
We are going to need a vastly amended Constitution with among other things, wealth caps. We need to rein in the Executive and sharply curtail his power. We need to take the DOJ and the Inspectors General out of the Executive branch and turn them into the 4th and 5th independent, coequal branches of government. And I think we need to make it possible for any 2 of the 5 branches to stop an out of control Congress or Executive Branch by calling snap elections - which likely means we need to move toward a parliamentary Republic. You don't need to be a lawyer to read the Constitution. It is still quite accessible after 250 years.
Parliamentary system. Parliamentary and unicameral, with the one chamber being the House, not the Senate: none of this shit about empty land having more votes than human beings. Electoral college gone: elect governments by popular vote, not late eighteenth century Rube Goldberg machines. No more presidential pardons: we've seen what happens when the head of government is able to simply reach in and declare anyone who's working for him innocent.
And for God's sake, *something* to vastly reduce the power of the Supreme Court. We cannot keep having this crap where a government that screws up so badly that it has to be booted out of office, nevertheless gets to spend the next twenty years strangling any attempt to fix its mess thanks to the judges it picked, FDR was 100% right about that. This isn't Iran. We don't need Guardian Councils any more than we need kings.
"Parliamentary and unicameral, with the one chamber being the House, not the Senate: none of this shit about empty land having more votes than human beings."
How about the number of representatives being based on the amount of federal taxes paid by the residents of the state corrected by the amount of federal funding it receives over a 5 year average. States like Kentucky and Tennessee would have 0 representatives where they receive more than they contribute.
Jim, I don’t like any system that ties representation to income or wealth. Until we, as a nation, make sure the social safety nets encompass everyone, such schemes only make sure that them who have get more! I have no problem with mild disparities in incomes and wealth. However the nation currently has entirely too many disparities in opportunity and wealth.
The politically blue states are supporting the red states but are not being effectively represented. Except for the last election (and not by much) even when the popular vote is lost the politically red states wind up in power.
I think looking at the total taxes paid isn't the same as looking at individual income. There are much fewer high income earners than low income earners. So if you want your state to contribute more federal tax you would have to create policies that raise everyone's income and that would tend to reduce the inequality by increasing the earnings of the highest percentage of people, the low earners.
In Australia, we have a bi-cameral, parliamentary system, that works quite well. Several States have unicameral State parliaments, which together demonstrate both approaches. We also have preferential, mandatory voting - both of which have pros and cons, but generally our system(s) seems to work for the public good.
A crucial factor is that we have an independent Australian Electoral Commission which redistributes electoral boundaries as populations ebb and flow, AND runs our elections - both State and Federal.
We also have a High Court, with highly-respected law practitioners appointed for limited terms, retiring at 70.
Perhaps it would be enough to make the negotiations over pay between workers and companies more even-sided, like it is in Europe.
In the US, if an employee walks out over too-low-pay, he/she is near instantly facing a loss of health care for the whole family, risk of making the family homeless and a loss of educational chances for children.
So Americans accept lower wages than (relatively) people are able to negotiate in Europe.
The above "market enforced discipline of the workforce in the US" makes the US economy more competitive - true. But it pushes the whole society to a breaking point as, arguably, is the situation today.
I am not aware of actual research pointing to European social safety nets as a reason for "flattening wealth contrasts in Europe", so maybe I am wrong and the above US problem - uneven negotiating positions over wages - is not a significant factor in the phenomenon of wealth disparities in the US. But it is worth looking at, I think. A universal health care could change much.
The Megacorps and Oligarchs have spent the last 50 years destroying collective bargaining in the US. It has lead to a wealth gap unseen here since the 1890s. It may take actually putting wealth caps into the Constitution to start to fix this laissez faire capitalist disease which rules our society now.
I was raised in a Soviet proxy system (Poland in the Soviet Block). So I am allergic to administrative solutions and outlawing wealth in general. Such a system has serious problems - vide the history of the "Marxist economy" implementations.
Having said that, obscene wealth is a wrong thing for many reasons. So I would search for systemic solutions to this problem, solutions not through decrees, but through making people's chances/opportunities truly even. I naively hope that it can be achieved, through things like a universal health care, free education, middle-of-the-road safety nets etc.
I believe tax margins are meant to keep the ultra-wealthy paying their fair share to the national upkeep. But through savvy lawyers and accountants, they manage to pay less than what a middle class family pays! I would like to see that corrected. Musk and the broligarchs complain their taxes go to supporting DEI and other programs they don’t like, but that’s a bs excuse for paying so little.
Predictably, Republican tax "policy" punishes the lower income quintiles to reward the upper income quintiles. At the same time, and equally predictably, it completely ignores the looming debt crisis. Essentially, Republicanism in the form of MAGA, is just the same reckless obsession with redistribution upwards as pre-MAGA Republicanism.
It's beyond depressing that this grotesquely ignorant narrative continues to have electoral purchase in the national conversation.
I am a retired Internist (Internal Medicine Doc) and to pass the boards we have to deal with the fact that 1/5 of the questions on the board exam are Psychiatric in origin. I see a lot of psychiatric issues in the Oligarch Class. I suspect that many of them have an as-yet unnamed Personality Disorder which I would name 'Ravening Greed'. They have an insatiable need to acquire unlimited wealth and power even if it hurts others and could potentially destroy society. This is why I advocate for a wealth cap. Yes, I want to take the proceeds of that cap and make sure every kid goes to bed well fed, well educated, and well clothed.
Also, nearly all risk has been pushed away from risk-sharing and onto individuals. How many file for bankruptcy due to medical bills or are one medical bill away from bankruptcy? How many have to work after retirement because greedy bankers caused a financial crisis and a 50% drop in stock market OR stupid tariff policy led to a market and bond crash and subsequent economic stagflation.
By allowing people to have no fear of economic downturns, they are willing to gamble on creating them. Again a wealth cap would go a long way toward healing society.
I would think that wealth “caps” wouldn’t work in any lasting document. Perhaps if they were stated in terms of ratios, but I think even those would limit workability. Do you really want an agency that goes about trying to measure and insure such. I worked at the U.S. Census Bureau many years ago and think its work important. I wouldn’t like to see it either share its data on individuals or have enforcement added to its duties.
The great thing about America (at least for now) is that we are allowed to disagree. But, still and all, what we have tried for the last 45 years isn’t working - not for everyday Americans. This endless Reverse Robinhood wealth transfer has brought us to the brink of a financial disaster.
As long as we're dreaming, ten random psychologists picked by lottery must agree that the heads of each branch are not psychopaths or narcissists before appointment or allowed to become candidates.
We need a parliamentary form of government so we can call snap elections when our leaders lose their sanity. It's ridiculous that we have to suffer through another 3.5 years of this nonsense.
Agree. And as HCR has said, the diversion of the wealth produced by our economy away from the poor and middle classes and into the hands of the wealthy has been going on since the 1980s. She has also, based, I think, on the Rand Corp paper entitled, "Trends in income from 1975 to 2018," told her many readers that the dollar amount of this transfer was massive; in the neighborhood of $50 Trillion.
I think you’re sanewashing, too. Trump isn’t trying to “redistribute” anything. He’s beating people with a handy big stick because they squeal so bigly when he whacks them. He’s not playing four-dimensional chess; he’s sticking the chess piece into his nose.
A trade war is still a trade war even if it's a distraction whose real purpose is something other than winning the trade war, though.
Like, the Iraq War was largely a phony war, whose purpose was to produce campaign commercials for Republicans and no-bid contracts for Republican donors, and whose real targets were their political enemies at home rather than anybody in the Middle-East. But there were still very much American soldiers, Iraqi soldiers, Iraqi rebels, and Iraqi civilians dying by the truckload in the Middle-East.
By whatever means one calls it you are correct at least in part as to the outcome....but I do not think this president is well educated enough on economics or cloak and dagger strategy...as you want to give him credit....he is engaging in trade policy...the knock on effect is as you say...but I think his friends have traded the news......so...anyway..good comments by you...
Trump has had only one idea about economics and it has always been about trade. He is just trying to show people he is right and he is smart. He is just trying to bully other countries into doing what he wants so he can show he is strong because they had to bend to his will and he only has one tool that he knows, tariffs. Any other reasoning for what he does projects thought and intelligence he just doesn’t have.
And yes, regarding tariff-taxes, I immediately saw through this fiscal sleight of hand. But it's too complicated for the orange wack job to have thought up himself, I suspect the ruse was quietly hatched in some Right-wing think tank and communicated to him via...who, is the sixty-four dollar question? Fundamentally, the Right knows a national VAT/GST would never fly politically as a direct proposal for a tax increase (it would be a flip flop on 50 years of their "taxes bad/govt. bad mantra). But via tariff-taxes, the de facto sales tax can be sold to the rubes as America First (i.e. xenophobic nationalism for false patriots).
The MAGA populist trade war as "policy" is essentially a bullshit project. Free trade is so baked into our economic performance and prosperity, that this clumsy trade war (is there any other type?) will mess it up so that even MAGAs will react against it.
And re Wall St., remember people who manage corporate finances and operations are not macroeconomists. And so they make their calculations of policy efficacy based on what they believe will be best for their own narrow interests, what we could describe as bounded, selfish, motivated reasoning. Remember too, many/most of them are personally rewarded for enhancing their various company share prices and really, that's the extent of their "vision".
All of the redistributive effects that you project for the Trump Presidency will probably prove true. But I think it a mistake to assume that he covets achieving those outcomes or has some ideological commitment to the process that would lead to them, as some worshipers of the free market and a good number of Republicans in Congress do. No, the driver of everything Trump is doing is his own personal enrichment through corrupting every process he can. You’re right to say that Trump doesn’t give a rip about trade with China or anyone else. Trade deficits? Surpluses? You’ve got to be kidding! Read David Frum’s May 12 article in The Atlantic, “The Ultimate Bait and Switch of Trump’s Tariffs.” Trump cannot adjust anyone’s personal or corporate tax bill by executive order, but he can do just that with a tariff. After slapping on a tariff, he can lower or eliminate it if you, say, contribute a suitable sum to his inaugural fund or some other family revenue conduit — Melania’s documentary project? — or buy a big block of $Trump crypto. Trump is about himself only, and corruption animates his entire approach to political rule.
Then what is the issue? There is a reason trump is giving a hit to the working class and in the case of Medicaid and Medicare, don't work. I really didn't get the whole picture in my mind until I read Colson Whitehead's Underground Railroad, while living in very red Indiana which had capitalized on "job creation" by giving tax cuts to companies that would bring jobs for their largely minimally higher educated population. The boasted a pool of workers who would work for next to nothing and very compliant. What has this to do with the Undeground Railroad? Colson explains the Slavery Solution that slave driven industry owners were coming to realize. They were so outnumbered by people they had so mistreated for so long increasingly there was the likelihood of mass revolt and they could all be murdered in their sleep. It took that kind of pressure to cause them to consider change. The solution was tohire and even import poor white people facing starvation from Italy and Ireland pay only subsistence wages to keep them in their place but not enough to save or improve their lot that and benefit from the bigotry that would result from those immigrants feeling at least not on the bottom, black previous slaves. Fast forward and we have a wealthy class engineering a massive under class of cheap labor by pressing more and more into low wage jobs with few to no benefits, and gutting any muddle class who will get in the way. Why? Even the wealthy have not quite figured that one out and muss that Xi is sitting on top of a powder keg of low wage workers they are now creating dark factories that don't need anyone but those who maintenance the machines. What if those workers revolt? Or will he need to kill them off? That also is found in Colson's story. So no, yhe problem is not one of low productivity either. Il leave the answer unsaid as it seems obvious. And the gop knows it. After bringing all those jobs to Indiana, it became clear they'd exhausted all possibility of growing economically and needed muddle class jobs. Turn out those workers are not so compliant, demand more money and ask a lot of uncomfortable questions.
Disagreed. While he does want that, he _also_ has an unhealthy obsession with trade specifically — which is confirmed by the fact that even otherwise supportive of him people say that "he is alone in that boat".
What we're seeing here in the EU, even at the grass roots level, is a fast retreat from commitment to the US.
People realize that an unstable and ignorant old man in the White House has near dictatorial power. Countries, corporations and individuals are looking for and finding ways to reduce their exposure.
I'm slowly getting more hopeful. I'm seeing clear signs that the message is received and understood. Reliance on the US in the near to intermediate future is a lousy idea.
If I were a foreign country, I wouldn't rely on the U S. ever again. If we are dumb enough to elect Trump twice, it shows an uninformed electorate and who knows who we will elect next. Electing him one time, maybe we get s pass but a second time after all we have seem him do and after his first term, there is do excuse for thst. It shows the electorate can't be trusted
It’s the second case of US voters electing an entertainer (Reagan was the first), which should have caused other governments to think twice. If US voters are so careless with who they choose to lead them, they aren’t serious about their country or their commitments to other nations. Entertainment and spitefulness have been the evident motivators for decades, neither of which make for serious international relationships.
I despise Reagan and Reaganism with white hot fury, but at least he was qualified for the job and probably believed in his ruined brain he was doing what was best for the USA. No such things can be said about the rapist squatting in the White House today.
James Garner said when Ronnie was president of the screen actors guild, not only was lazy, and refused to do any of the work, he was stupid, vain, and terribly unqualified for the job. But he took all the credit for the work Garner did!
Technically, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is an entertainer too, but for Ukraine, it went better. Hell, Schwarzenegger as a governor went better. I don't think it's just about previous profession.
To be fair, we aren’t the only country that has elected an autocrat…we are only the latest in a long stream. They have used social media to their advantage to manipulate elections globally. Eventually we have to have a reckoning of the tech companies…it’s the only way things will change. Regulate the algorithms or we will not have democracy.
Wealth inequality also needs its come to Jesus moment as well. Addressing those 2 things would do a great deal.
Europeans are not as stupid as Americans are. The Parliamentary Democracy is better and less prone to giving dictators undeserved power. As opposed to the obsolete inferior Greek system America still uses.
Greek? I don't get this. It was the system of ancient Greece (meaning Athens) that Madison was thinking about when we was writing his preference for a republic (Rome, and I won't digress on that matter, like what a lousy fucking pseudo-republic that was) over a democracy. Which, of course, has been grabbed by the right-wing bozos, including he John Birch Society, for their bumper stickers.
Hungary longer counts as a country anymore. Its a Kremlin puppet state, also many of those sub humans are fascists. They need to be kicked out of NATO and the EU with sanctions.
Still, he was initially elected under a parliamentary democracy. This is a recent counter point to the assertion that parliamentary democracy is less prone to giving autocrats power.
The problem isn't democracy, the problem is American democracy as set up in our flawed Constitution.
Gerrymandering, the Electoral College, 2 Senators per state, Citizens United, etc. are undemocratic flaws that have to be fixed or America will continue to follow its current trajectory into authoritarian rule by a hateful, ignorant minority.
You’re correct. Originally each state was to get 1 U.S. Rep per 30,000 people. If the electoral college was based on that trump would have lost in 2016.
There were cracks in the foundation that should've been repaired; updates are needed to serve the times we are in. Citizens United harms. Has democracy failed, or are humans responsible for upholding the system weak and, in too many instances, corrupt? I'd say humans are driving democracy into the ground.
I think the sanewashing of Trump is a huge problem and I really don't understand it. If Biden's every slip, stutter and stumble can be picked apart and analyzed ad nauseum, Trump's must be too. His statements to the press are nonsensical and repetitive of key words -- a potential sign of cognitive decline. His vocabulary has become more limited as he's aged. He's clearly not the same man he was even 20 years ago. But for as long as I can remember the press has given Republican presidents a deference they never grant to Democratic ones. I'm old enough to remember "Teflon Ron" -- criticism and blame slipped right off him. George W Bush's staff used intense bullying and coercion to enforce a similar protective bubble around the president.
Dubya's staff couldn't protect him from all the coverage of his endless malapropisms. Aside from that, the lamestream mass media is owned by oligarchs who, in spite of their protestations to the contrary, do in fact "influence" editorial content.
That of course means downplaying endless GOP malfeasance and overhyping every Dem gaff, however minor. A good example is attacking Bill Clinton for the grave crime of...wait for it...having sex.
And every one of those who targeted him, had their own sex scandal. Ken Starr was the last to be revealed, he had both a mistress, and refused to investigate credible rape allegations against his football team when he was dean of Baylor. (It came out because the players involved continued that behavior and were caught in the world outside of college.)
"In 2016, almost two decades after Starr investigated the Clinton scandal, Starr was fired from his job as president of Baylor University, accused of ignoring sexual assault issues on campus.
When Starr took over the presidency at Baylor University in 2010, he appeared to have quickly grasped the importance of athletics at the Division I school. As president, he oversaw the opening of the university's $250 million football stadium. Before some games, he even ran onto the football field and cheered alongside students.
However, shortly after Starr's arrival on campus, Baylor athletics became marred by sexual assault allegations and convictions.
According to a 2016 report from The Wall Street Journal, the sexual assault scandal that plagued Baylor during Starr's tenure included at least 17 women who had reported sexual or domestic assault involving 19 football players since 2011. The reports included four instances of alleged gang rapes, according to the Journal.
Convictions soon followed. In 2014, former Baylor football player Tevin Elliott was convicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison on two counts of sexually assaulting a former Baylor student in 2012.
When another football player was convicted of sexual assault the following year, Starr called for an internal inquiry into how the university handled the case. The internal inquiry led Starr to recommend that the university hire outside counsel to look into the school's response.
The results of the inquiry were damning. According to a summary of the findings of the law firm Pepper Hamilton released by the university in 2016, the investigators discovered a "fundamental failure" by Baylor to implement Title IX, the federal law that polices sexual violence on campus, as well as the Violence Against Women Reauthorization Act.
"After four years of unapologetic immorality from Donald Trump, the allegation by Judi Hershman that she had an affair with Ken Starr—he who moved heaven and earth 23 years ago to document in pornographic detail Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky—may seem quaint."
The media is owned by right-wing oligarchs who want it to produce right-wing outcomes, period. I admit, it's never been *quite* as blatant as it has been since Joe Biden's election. But that's all it is.
The media consists of business corporations. It is an integral propaganda part of the autocracy. It is effective as a brainwashing tool as long as it controls a voting majority.
Look at my words above. Almost half of those words suggest a target we can aim at.
Heck, I'm old enough to remember Eisenhower, who was inarticulate enough in his later presidential years to earn the scorn of those to the left of the center of the Democratic Party (though I have mellowed in my mature years toward Eisenhower and Truman).
"And bear in mind that Smoot-Hawley added to tariff rates that were already high, while this time we’re jumping from very low to very high tariffs almost instantly."
This is a very under reported point as many people don't have a good sense of dynamics. Complex, nonlinear systems can behave in very non-intuitive ways when perturbed by large, rapid impulses. We saw this during the pandemic shutdowns. We're about to see it again.
The last point is the crux. It would take months of stability in Trump’s tariff rate schedule to end the paralysis. And there’s no sign that that will happen…at any point.
When retailers like Walmart soon start passing along the 10% increase hitting their bottom line to consumers, inflation economy-wide will rise correspondingly. It will be fascinating to see how FOX News will spin THAT to the base. And if their current 90% approval of Trump will then change in any way.
Meanwhile, the GOP is set to pass a bill that will cut up to 20million from Medicaid, and in doing so close innumerable rural county hospitals already on the brink of bankruptcy. Which will hurt rural Red America immensely. All so that 0.2% of the population can buy another yacht.
Ironically, when retailers jack up their prices, consumers will pare spending to the bone, forcing retailers to reduce prices. It won't even have to be an organized boycott. People just won't buy what they can't afford and don't really need. Of course, there will also be organized boycotts on top of that.
One of the weird things about economics is that there is an element of mass psychology involved, which isn't really quantifiable, but does exist, so that's always a big gray area.
That won't force retailers to cut prices. When they can no longer show a profit, retailers will quit carrying certain items, and, in some cases, they will go out of business.
That too will happen, but there will be some price cuts - at the very least to clear existing inventory. Going out of business means having a fire sale.
Financially comfortable people will still pay the higher prices. There won't be much left for people who cannot afford those prices.
I went to the going-out-of-business sale for JoAnn's and noted that most prices were about the same as their usual sales prices when they were in business. Most people were buying at the sale where I live because there is no comparable store within at least an hour's drive.
Since much of the tariffs are aimed at clothing it will be interesting to see how that plays out in the fashion world. I can see "pseudo" repairs with white thread showing up in the clothing people buy.
90 days are probably enough for subsantially re-routing exports from China (e.g. through Vietnam or somewhere else, I don't know).
In addition, based on our Italian exepience with the introduction of the Euro and other experiences, tariffs will be used by the big corporations (listed on the stockmarkets, and basically operating in oligopolistic markets) to justify price increases, in fact increasing their margins (at least unitarian margins).
As usual there will be only 1 clear loser from Trump's "strategies": honest Americans.
Pray that your limpdick, grifter Pres wrecks your economy because, to an outside observer , that looks like the only way enough of you will rise up and overthrow the Trumpists and their idiot Maga base.
That's very possible, but not definitive. We've already had two major demonstrations amassing half the 3.5% needed, and we're far from done.
It's a great reminder of the imperative that we continue to Rise! Resist! ✊✊✊
The next nationwide rally is June 14, yes >that< June 14, be there or be square!
Let's ruin Chump's B'day. We need 3.5% or the population, or around 12,000,000 people to be present. So bring all your friends and families. Spread the word as far and wide as possible. Let's all get out there with a Howard Beale spirit and yell "We're as mad as hell, and we're not gonna take it anymore!".
Do not protest AT THE PARADE. IT'S A SETUP for an "insurrection" so that he can finally declare martial law, which is a distraction he desperately needs. With these soulless bastards, absolutely nothing is off the table. You will never convince me there was a legitimate assassination attempt either. All bets are off. Beware the Ides of June 14th. Nothing to be optimistic about. I'm sorry.
We can and will demonstrate everywhere else though. Yes, we should all avoid D.C. altogether. We're not going to give the Orange Scourge what he wants.
AAPL is in real trouble, and now Trump is bullying Tim Cook, who could fight back by secretly backing a plan the distribute about two hundred million copies of this Paul Krugman essay.
The only way that the Republican voters who are not hot MAGAs will vote for a Dem or Independent in 2026 is when they personally feel the pain of Trump’s tariffs. That will be the only benefit of Trump’s tariff game playing. So, I will tighten my belt and watch Trump shoot himself in the foot.
Indeed, Tariffs are a Federal sales tax above the regular state and local sales taxes. This all started with the notion of bringing back manufacturing and turned into a predatory taxation for all goods, not just from American companies in other nations whose products we buy here. So Tariffs are dishonest. They are offsets for tax giveaways to the wealthy. What should have been done was to increase the 15% foreign profits taxes to a higher amount than the national 21% corporate tax rate to incentivize company's return to our nation. So once again, the Wall Street White House is a lying sack of baloney. Tariffs are a fraud brought to you by Wall Street TV.
Universal tariffs won’t bring back critical manufacturing, or any manufacturing. Not even tariffs higher than corporate taxes. The effective corporate tax rate is way lower than 21%. Targeted tariffs and industrial policy would be the best option, but obviously that’s beyond tangface’s level of comprehension. The Biden administration gave us a great start in this direction but it would take decades of competent leadership for it to work. And, of course, no one is going to invest in US manufacturing as long as there’s a nitwit in charge who changes his “mind” hourly.
The notion of bringing back manufacturing was a lie, just as the "trickle down effect" was a lie. As you point out, it's all about the reverse Robin Hood effect.
No, it wasn't a lie. I started writing in NYTimes comments before Trump ran in 2015 of the importance of bringing back manufacturing for national security concerns.
Actually, manufacturing never left. The only thing that left was the manufacturing that required low income labor. Most of manufacturing job loss was to automation. If in fact, the rest of the manufacturing comes back, the jobs won’t come back with it.
yes, actual manufacturing output in the US has not declined significantly, but the percentage of the labor force engaged in manufacturing has done so. Automation has done more for that decline than free trade.
Boots and jeans won't be made in the US (or Japan, Korea, China etc.) unless the capital to automate can show an ROI. Right now cheap labor in Bangladesh (Mexico, Viet Nam, etc.) makes the investment hard to justify. Tariff's that target the cheap labor imbalance might bring those jobs back but your boots and jeans are going to cost a lot more.
Ideally, and going back to the initial concern about security, what one would like to accomplish is some resiliency in these highly automated processes so that when Moms feel they need to hoard a little toilet paper that there is some elasticity in the 24/7/365 day operations that will meet that additional demand. I'd suggest then, that highly automated systems in oligopolistic industries somehow support that elasticity. The security interest could be the opportunity and niche that small manufacturing and low skilled employment could exploit. It's going to make the boots and jeans (and the TP) slightly more expensive but what you should get is the security of having elasticity in the supply and some entry level jobs.
I meant Trumpkopf's claim that tariffs would bring back manufacturing. That was a lie. I agree with you that we need to have strategically important manufacturing within our borders.
It may be important, but it's by and large impractical as to a huge volume and range of inexpensive consumer goods. Those jobs were offshored in the first place because production costs--primarily labor--were (and still are) so much lower overseas that stuff made here simply couldn't compete, even without the immense costs of massive shipping halfway around the world and distribution from ports, let alone the existing nominal tariffs.
As the professor notes, elasticity of demand is not going to result in transferring demand to domestic alternatives (because so few actually exist); it's just going to make the economy contract while prices go up anyway.
The tip of the iceberg is just beginning to peek out from under the waves. These are still unprecedented shocks to the entire global order, and the effects are just beginning. All of Dumpy Trump's mendacious men, women, and media horses can't unring the bell or get the toothpaste back into the tube.
Even better go back to Henry George and reverse the closing of the frontier by imposing a Federal franchise tax on unimproved land values to create intergenerational equality of access to land to live and raise a family on.
The regressive nature of the US economy has been on a slow slide since 1970. We’ve been robbed little by little and have had our collective pockets picked to the tune of $50 trillion. Now that process is being fast tracked and we are like the deer in the headlights, frozen with disbelief. Either we get out of the road, take action and avoid the collision, or we suffer the consequences.
This is a great reminder of the imperative that we continue to Rise! Resist! ✊✊✊
The next nationwide rally is June 14, yes >that< June 14, be there or be square!
Let's ruin Chump's B'day. We need 3.5% or the population, or around 12,000,000 people to be present. So bring all your friends and families. Spread the word as far and wide as possible. Let's all get out there with a Howard Beale spirit and yell "We're as mad as hell, and we're not gonna take it anymore!".
CBS News' headline yesterday said 'Walmart is planning to raise prices despite lower tariffs." It was so disingenuous it was ridiculous. They are absolutely same washing this crap.
Facebook average user's response and the general consensus from the comments? We won't shop there, we'll go somewhere with lower prices instead. Walmart is price gouging!
There are so, so many "poorly educated" people out there. Anymore Facebook and NextDoor make me feel like we're losing this battle. People are so confidently incorrect regarding the things happening right in front of them that the really have no actual concept of.
Smoot Hawley means nothing. Tariffs and basic economics are lost on them. They were never taught about the Great Depression. Civics knowledge is non existent. They have no idea what the Constitution says and worse, how it applies to them. I truly believe this is the majority we're dealing with. We're cooked.
It would be helpful to phrase things in a way that puts the focus on what’s actually going on. Calling this a trade war is unhelpful because it’s not, it’s a performance to distract from the true intent which is the income redistribution, reducing progressive income tax and replacing it with a regressive sales tax.
Trump is not actually trying to eliminate the trade deficit (a dumb idea anyway).
Trump is not actually trying to take on China for their bad actions (arguably a good idea but he doesn’t actually care about what China does). Trump goes soft on China every chance he gets just like with his bro Putin.
Trump is trying to redistribute national income away from the poorest and to the richest.
Everything else is performative, the rest is just a distraction to get you talk about other things. Even on this blog I don’t believe there’s been one post just about the regressive taxation, every mention of it is in the context of trade policy, but trade policy isn’t the real issue.
“Trump is trying to redistribute national income away from the poorest and to the richest.” One of the goals of Project 2025?
Very true.
Speaking of conspiracies, way back in 2017 Professor Krugman warned us about a false flag or "Reichstag Fire" moment-
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/opinion/when-the-fire-comes.html
The Meidas Touch has done an amazing job of building an alternative media network, one that surpasses figures like Joe Rogan. Great, practical insights.
Their Ben Meiselas today issued a warning about the President-
"When Trump returns from his Middle East bribe trip, I feel he will ramp up the attacks on independent media like us. I believe his next move is trying to incite some incident where he can declare martial law and turn the military against the media and the people. I don’t say this to scare you—I say this so we can prepare."
THE PARADE. IT'S A SETUP. There will be an "insurrection." Note how they will crow about it using our language against us. They will instigate actual violence and blame opposition. They are going to orchestrate a reverse Capitol riot. That is the distraction he desperately needs. Some of us have been trying to sound this alarm for weeks. NO PARADE PROTESTS!! STAY AWAY. It's going to happen anyway, though.
You are not far off. All Trump needs is a large scale protest where his agent provocateurs (proud boyz, neo nazis, etc.) can smash some retail windows, start a few fires and it will be the trigger for Trump to legally invoke a series of draconian suspensions of our rights under the constitution and declare a martial law that only he can end. Hitler and the Nazis did this and it worked pretty well for them.
However, I have long held that economic boycott is the only way we can fight back. People say it does not work. I say Tesla shows the power.
Any moron can find a list of commercial outlets and corporations who have a historical right wing bent. Just don’t buy their stuff. There are plenty of them to choose from. You don’t even have to share who you choose to boycott.
I'm afraid that one day I'll be reading about the destruction of a radio station on the Canadian border (that was Hitler's false flag excuse for invading Poland). Fortunately, DonnyJon doesn't read, so he probably hasn't heard about that one.
Hope is good - wishful thinking? Not so much-
https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8?op=1
Please see my comment to Angie. I believe it applies here too.
Reagan is smiling
Two words keep popping into my consciousness:
French Revolution
Guillotines, anyone?
We are going to need a vastly amended Constitution with among other things, wealth caps. We need to rein in the Executive and sharply curtail his power. We need to take the DOJ and the Inspectors General out of the Executive branch and turn them into the 4th and 5th independent, coequal branches of government. And I think we need to make it possible for any 2 of the 5 branches to stop an out of control Congress or Executive Branch by calling snap elections - which likely means we need to move toward a parliamentary Republic. You don't need to be a lawyer to read the Constitution. It is still quite accessible after 250 years.
Parliamentary system. Parliamentary and unicameral, with the one chamber being the House, not the Senate: none of this shit about empty land having more votes than human beings. Electoral college gone: elect governments by popular vote, not late eighteenth century Rube Goldberg machines. No more presidential pardons: we've seen what happens when the head of government is able to simply reach in and declare anyone who's working for him innocent.
And for God's sake, *something* to vastly reduce the power of the Supreme Court. We cannot keep having this crap where a government that screws up so badly that it has to be booted out of office, nevertheless gets to spend the next twenty years strangling any attempt to fix its mess thanks to the judges it picked, FDR was 100% right about that. This isn't Iran. We don't need Guardian Councils any more than we need kings.
"And for God's sake, *something* to vastly reduce the power of the Supreme Court."
This seems like one of the easier bits:
(1) Tie the number of seats in some way to the population.
(2) Establish a term limit (even 25 years would be an improvement).
(3) Establish an age* limit.
(4) Establish a competence floor that can help filter out political hacks.
_________________
*Human minds tend to put more weight on earlier life experiences, which makes dealing with newer concepts like cyberspace and AI more difficult.
I couldn't agree more! I find it fascinating that I spout things like this now - I used to consider myself a middle-of-the-road Eisenhower Republican.
"Parliamentary and unicameral, with the one chamber being the House, not the Senate: none of this shit about empty land having more votes than human beings."
How about the number of representatives being based on the amount of federal taxes paid by the residents of the state corrected by the amount of federal funding it receives over a 5 year average. States like Kentucky and Tennessee would have 0 representatives where they receive more than they contribute.
Jim, I don’t like any system that ties representation to income or wealth. Until we, as a nation, make sure the social safety nets encompass everyone, such schemes only make sure that them who have get more! I have no problem with mild disparities in incomes and wealth. However the nation currently has entirely too many disparities in opportunity and wealth.
Phil, I agree it does.
Take a look at this map
https://rockinst.org/issue-areas/fiscal-analysis/balance-of-payments-portal/#:~:text=Balance%20of%20payments%20refers%20to,they%20pay%20in%20are%20blue.
The politically blue states are supporting the red states but are not being effectively represented. Except for the last election (and not by much) even when the popular vote is lost the politically red states wind up in power.
I think looking at the total taxes paid isn't the same as looking at individual income. There are much fewer high income earners than low income earners. So if you want your state to contribute more federal tax you would have to create policies that raise everyone's income and that would tend to reduce the inequality by increasing the earnings of the highest percentage of people, the low earners.
Chris, do you have thoughts on how would we get from our current structure to what you describe? I sincerely want to know.
In Australia, we have a bi-cameral, parliamentary system, that works quite well. Several States have unicameral State parliaments, which together demonstrate both approaches. We also have preferential, mandatory voting - both of which have pros and cons, but generally our system(s) seems to work for the public good.
A crucial factor is that we have an independent Australian Electoral Commission which redistributes electoral boundaries as populations ebb and flow, AND runs our elections - both State and Federal.
We also have a High Court, with highly-respected law practitioners appointed for limited terms, retiring at 70.
Perhaps it would be enough to make the negotiations over pay between workers and companies more even-sided, like it is in Europe.
In the US, if an employee walks out over too-low-pay, he/she is near instantly facing a loss of health care for the whole family, risk of making the family homeless and a loss of educational chances for children.
So Americans accept lower wages than (relatively) people are able to negotiate in Europe.
The above "market enforced discipline of the workforce in the US" makes the US economy more competitive - true. But it pushes the whole society to a breaking point as, arguably, is the situation today.
I am not aware of actual research pointing to European social safety nets as a reason for "flattening wealth contrasts in Europe", so maybe I am wrong and the above US problem - uneven negotiating positions over wages - is not a significant factor in the phenomenon of wealth disparities in the US. But it is worth looking at, I think. A universal health care could change much.
The Megacorps and Oligarchs have spent the last 50 years destroying collective bargaining in the US. It has lead to a wealth gap unseen here since the 1890s. It may take actually putting wealth caps into the Constitution to start to fix this laissez faire capitalist disease which rules our society now.
I was raised in a Soviet proxy system (Poland in the Soviet Block). So I am allergic to administrative solutions and outlawing wealth in general. Such a system has serious problems - vide the history of the "Marxist economy" implementations.
Having said that, obscene wealth is a wrong thing for many reasons. So I would search for systemic solutions to this problem, solutions not through decrees, but through making people's chances/opportunities truly even. I naively hope that it can be achieved, through things like a universal health care, free education, middle-of-the-road safety nets etc.
I believe tax margins are meant to keep the ultra-wealthy paying their fair share to the national upkeep. But through savvy lawyers and accountants, they manage to pay less than what a middle class family pays! I would like to see that corrected. Musk and the broligarchs complain their taxes go to supporting DEI and other programs they don’t like, but that’s a bs excuse for paying so little.
Predictably, Republican tax "policy" punishes the lower income quintiles to reward the upper income quintiles. At the same time, and equally predictably, it completely ignores the looming debt crisis. Essentially, Republicanism in the form of MAGA, is just the same reckless obsession with redistribution upwards as pre-MAGA Republicanism.
It's beyond depressing that this grotesquely ignorant narrative continues to have electoral purchase in the national conversation.
I am a retired Internist (Internal Medicine Doc) and to pass the boards we have to deal with the fact that 1/5 of the questions on the board exam are Psychiatric in origin. I see a lot of psychiatric issues in the Oligarch Class. I suspect that many of them have an as-yet unnamed Personality Disorder which I would name 'Ravening Greed'. They have an insatiable need to acquire unlimited wealth and power even if it hurts others and could potentially destroy society. This is why I advocate for a wealth cap. Yes, I want to take the proceeds of that cap and make sure every kid goes to bed well fed, well educated, and well clothed.
Also, nearly all risk has been pushed away from risk-sharing and onto individuals. How many file for bankruptcy due to medical bills or are one medical bill away from bankruptcy? How many have to work after retirement because greedy bankers caused a financial crisis and a 50% drop in stock market OR stupid tariff policy led to a market and bond crash and subsequent economic stagflation.
What is a pathway back to risk-sharing?
By allowing people to have no fear of economic downturns, they are willing to gamble on creating them. Again a wealth cap would go a long way toward healing society.
I would think that wealth “caps” wouldn’t work in any lasting document. Perhaps if they were stated in terms of ratios, but I think even those would limit workability. Do you really want an agency that goes about trying to measure and insure such. I worked at the U.S. Census Bureau many years ago and think its work important. I wouldn’t like to see it either share its data on individuals or have enforcement added to its duties.
The great thing about America (at least for now) is that we are allowed to disagree. But, still and all, what we have tried for the last 45 years isn’t working - not for everyday Americans. This endless Reverse Robinhood wealth transfer has brought us to the brink of a financial disaster.
Very true! Universal health care is needed on USA!
I think it could be as simple as separating DOJ from executive branch.
It will take more than that. tRump is using every single gap or bit of wiggle room in the Constitution to wreck his havoc.
As long as we're dreaming, ten random psychologists picked by lottery must agree that the heads of each branch are not psychopaths or narcissists before appointment or allowed to become candidates.
There is such a thing a Detailed Neuropsychiatric Evaluation. I have thought of this often since he came onto the political landscape.
We need a parliamentary form of government so we can call snap elections when our leaders lose their sanity. It's ridiculous that we have to suffer through another 3.5 years of this nonsense.
The Franers never anticipated anyone as vile or corrupt as the Republicans are.
They worried about Cabals. That is why they limited voters to those who owned property. They wanted voters with skin in the game. It didn't work.
Learn to knit, Madame DeFarge
🤔
lol .... karma is a bitch
And then they got Napoleon - that said it would be worth it to see Dump get the punishment due traitors in wartime
Trump is trying to redistribute national income away from the poorest and to the Trump family.
And his tax policies are crazy too. Read about Trump's Big Backassward Boondoggle. That's Trump's big beautiful bill.
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/trumps-ig-ackassward-oondoggle
Agree. And as HCR has said, the diversion of the wealth produced by our economy away from the poor and middle classes and into the hands of the wealthy has been going on since the 1980s. She has also, based, I think, on the Rand Corp paper entitled, "Trends in income from 1975 to 2018," told her many readers that the dollar amount of this transfer was massive; in the neighborhood of $50 Trillion.
I think you’re sanewashing, too. Trump isn’t trying to “redistribute” anything. He’s beating people with a handy big stick because they squeal so bigly when he whacks them. He’s not playing four-dimensional chess; he’s sticking the chess piece into his nose.
A trade war is still a trade war even if it's a distraction whose real purpose is something other than winning the trade war, though.
Like, the Iraq War was largely a phony war, whose purpose was to produce campaign commercials for Republicans and no-bid contracts for Republican donors, and whose real targets were their political enemies at home rather than anybody in the Middle-East. But there were still very much American soldiers, Iraqi soldiers, Iraqi rebels, and Iraqi civilians dying by the truckload in the Middle-East.
By whatever means one calls it you are correct at least in part as to the outcome....but I do not think this president is well educated enough on economics or cloak and dagger strategy...as you want to give him credit....he is engaging in trade policy...the knock on effect is as you say...but I think his friends have traded the news......so...anyway..good comments by you...
Agreed, sincerely doubt he can neither spell nor define 'Reciprocal'.
Sometimes I cannot spell either 😎but I can think🤔
Trump has had only one idea about economics and it has always been about trade. He is just trying to show people he is right and he is smart. He is just trying to bully other countries into doing what he wants so he can show he is strong because they had to bend to his will and he only has one tool that he knows, tariffs. Any other reasoning for what he does projects thought and intelligence he just doesn’t have.
100% agree with your comment.
And yes, regarding tariff-taxes, I immediately saw through this fiscal sleight of hand. But it's too complicated for the orange wack job to have thought up himself, I suspect the ruse was quietly hatched in some Right-wing think tank and communicated to him via...who, is the sixty-four dollar question? Fundamentally, the Right knows a national VAT/GST would never fly politically as a direct proposal for a tax increase (it would be a flip flop on 50 years of their "taxes bad/govt. bad mantra). But via tariff-taxes, the de facto sales tax can be sold to the rubes as America First (i.e. xenophobic nationalism for false patriots).
The MAGA populist trade war as "policy" is essentially a bullshit project. Free trade is so baked into our economic performance and prosperity, that this clumsy trade war (is there any other type?) will mess it up so that even MAGAs will react against it.
And re Wall St., remember people who manage corporate finances and operations are not macroeconomists. And so they make their calculations of policy efficacy based on what they believe will be best for their own narrow interests, what we could describe as bounded, selfish, motivated reasoning. Remember too, many/most of them are personally rewarded for enhancing their various company share prices and really, that's the extent of their "vision".
All of the redistributive effects that you project for the Trump Presidency will probably prove true. But I think it a mistake to assume that he covets achieving those outcomes or has some ideological commitment to the process that would lead to them, as some worshipers of the free market and a good number of Republicans in Congress do. No, the driver of everything Trump is doing is his own personal enrichment through corrupting every process he can. You’re right to say that Trump doesn’t give a rip about trade with China or anyone else. Trade deficits? Surpluses? You’ve got to be kidding! Read David Frum’s May 12 article in The Atlantic, “The Ultimate Bait and Switch of Trump’s Tariffs.” Trump cannot adjust anyone’s personal or corporate tax bill by executive order, but he can do just that with a tariff. After slapping on a tariff, he can lower or eliminate it if you, say, contribute a suitable sum to his inaugural fund or some other family revenue conduit — Melania’s documentary project? — or buy a big block of $Trump crypto. Trump is about himself only, and corruption animates his entire approach to political rule.
Then what is the issue? There is a reason trump is giving a hit to the working class and in the case of Medicaid and Medicare, don't work. I really didn't get the whole picture in my mind until I read Colson Whitehead's Underground Railroad, while living in very red Indiana which had capitalized on "job creation" by giving tax cuts to companies that would bring jobs for their largely minimally higher educated population. The boasted a pool of workers who would work for next to nothing and very compliant. What has this to do with the Undeground Railroad? Colson explains the Slavery Solution that slave driven industry owners were coming to realize. They were so outnumbered by people they had so mistreated for so long increasingly there was the likelihood of mass revolt and they could all be murdered in their sleep. It took that kind of pressure to cause them to consider change. The solution was tohire and even import poor white people facing starvation from Italy and Ireland pay only subsistence wages to keep them in their place but not enough to save or improve their lot that and benefit from the bigotry that would result from those immigrants feeling at least not on the bottom, black previous slaves. Fast forward and we have a wealthy class engineering a massive under class of cheap labor by pressing more and more into low wage jobs with few to no benefits, and gutting any muddle class who will get in the way. Why? Even the wealthy have not quite figured that one out and muss that Xi is sitting on top of a powder keg of low wage workers they are now creating dark factories that don't need anyone but those who maintenance the machines. What if those workers revolt? Or will he need to kill them off? That also is found in Colson's story. So no, yhe problem is not one of low productivity either. Il leave the answer unsaid as it seems obvious. And the gop knows it. After bringing all those jobs to Indiana, it became clear they'd exhausted all possibility of growing economically and needed muddle class jobs. Turn out those workers are not so compliant, demand more money and ask a lot of uncomfortable questions.
He's covering the economics of trade, you are covering the motivation. I agree with both.
Thanks for the Heart video: good commentary with a little nostalgia.
Amen!
Both…
Disagreed. While he does want that, he _also_ has an unhealthy obsession with trade specifically — which is confirmed by the fact that even otherwise supportive of him people say that "he is alone in that boat".
What we're seeing here in the EU, even at the grass roots level, is a fast retreat from commitment to the US.
People realize that an unstable and ignorant old man in the White House has near dictatorial power. Countries, corporations and individuals are looking for and finding ways to reduce their exposure.
I'm slowly getting more hopeful. I'm seeing clear signs that the message is received and understood. Reliance on the US in the near to intermediate future is a lousy idea.
If I were a foreign country, I wouldn't rely on the U S. ever again. If we are dumb enough to elect Trump twice, it shows an uninformed electorate and who knows who we will elect next. Electing him one time, maybe we get s pass but a second time after all we have seem him do and after his first term, there is do excuse for thst. It shows the electorate can't be trusted
It’s the second case of US voters electing an entertainer (Reagan was the first), which should have caused other governments to think twice. If US voters are so careless with who they choose to lead them, they aren’t serious about their country or their commitments to other nations. Entertainment and spitefulness have been the evident motivators for decades, neither of which make for serious international relationships.
I despise Reagan and Reaganism with white hot fury, but at least he was qualified for the job and probably believed in his ruined brain he was doing what was best for the USA. No such things can be said about the rapist squatting in the White House today.
James Garner said when Ronnie was president of the screen actors guild, not only was lazy, and refused to do any of the work, he was stupid, vain, and terribly unqualified for the job. But he took all the credit for the work Garner did!
I used to be a chauffeur and drove Garner to a golf match in Pebble Beach c1992. He was a cool cat.
Yes, I am glad to have my impression of him confirmed, thank you for sharing that.
Technically, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is an entertainer too, but for Ukraine, it went better. Hell, Schwarzenegger as a governor went better. I don't think it's just about previous profession.
To be fair, we aren’t the only country that has elected an autocrat…we are only the latest in a long stream. They have used social media to their advantage to manipulate elections globally. Eventually we have to have a reckoning of the tech companies…it’s the only way things will change. Regulate the algorithms or we will not have democracy.
Wealth inequality also needs its come to Jesus moment as well. Addressing those 2 things would do a great deal.
Read "In the Wet", by Nevil Shute.
This is very true. My guess is that the rest of the world won’t trust the American electorate for a long time to come.
The problem is, they won't trust democracy either.
Europeans are not as stupid as Americans are. The Parliamentary Democracy is better and less prone to giving dictators undeserved power. As opposed to the obsolete inferior Greek system America still uses.
Greek? I don't get this. It was the system of ancient Greece (meaning Athens) that Madison was thinking about when we was writing his preference for a republic (Rome, and I won't digress on that matter, like what a lousy fucking pseudo-republic that was) over a democracy. Which, of course, has been grabbed by the right-wing bozos, including he John Birch Society, for their bumper stickers.
Two words: Victor Orban
Hungary longer counts as a country anymore. Its a Kremlin puppet state, also many of those sub humans are fascists. They need to be kicked out of NATO and the EU with sanctions.
Still, he was initially elected under a parliamentary democracy. This is a recent counter point to the assertion that parliamentary democracy is less prone to giving autocrats power.
Should they trust democracy? Democracy produced the current state of affairs.
The problem isn't democracy, the problem is American democracy as set up in our flawed Constitution.
Gerrymandering, the Electoral College, 2 Senators per state, Citizens United, etc. are undemocratic flaws that have to be fixed or America will continue to follow its current trajectory into authoritarian rule by a hateful, ignorant minority.
You’re correct. Originally each state was to get 1 U.S. Rep per 30,000 people. If the electoral college was based on that trump would have lost in 2016.
There were cracks in the foundation that should've been repaired; updates are needed to serve the times we are in. Citizens United harms. Has democracy failed, or are humans responsible for upholding the system weak and, in too many instances, corrupt? I'd say humans are driving democracy into the ground.
What form of rule do you think you’d prefer? Personally I prefer having a say in decision making!
These are the truest words ever written!
I think the sanewashing of Trump is a huge problem and I really don't understand it. If Biden's every slip, stutter and stumble can be picked apart and analyzed ad nauseum, Trump's must be too. His statements to the press are nonsensical and repetitive of key words -- a potential sign of cognitive decline. His vocabulary has become more limited as he's aged. He's clearly not the same man he was even 20 years ago. But for as long as I can remember the press has given Republican presidents a deference they never grant to Democratic ones. I'm old enough to remember "Teflon Ron" -- criticism and blame slipped right off him. George W Bush's staff used intense bullying and coercion to enforce a similar protective bubble around the president.
Dubya's staff couldn't protect him from all the coverage of his endless malapropisms. Aside from that, the lamestream mass media is owned by oligarchs who, in spite of their protestations to the contrary, do in fact "influence" editorial content.
That of course means downplaying endless GOP malfeasance and overhyping every Dem gaff, however minor. A good example is attacking Bill Clinton for the grave crime of...wait for it...having sex.
And every one of those who targeted him, had their own sex scandal. Ken Starr was the last to be revealed, he had both a mistress, and refused to investigate credible rape allegations against his football team when he was dean of Baylor. (It came out because the players involved continued that behavior and were caught in the world outside of college.)
Wow. I didn't know about >that<. So Starr turned out to prove once again that with the GOP every accusation is a confession.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2021/07/25/what-ken-starrs-alleged-affair-means-for-republicans/
"In 2016, almost two decades after Starr investigated the Clinton scandal, Starr was fired from his job as president of Baylor University, accused of ignoring sexual assault issues on campus.
When Starr took over the presidency at Baylor University in 2010, he appeared to have quickly grasped the importance of athletics at the Division I school. As president, he oversaw the opening of the university's $250 million football stadium. Before some games, he even ran onto the football field and cheered alongside students.
However, shortly after Starr's arrival on campus, Baylor athletics became marred by sexual assault allegations and convictions.
According to a 2016 report from The Wall Street Journal, the sexual assault scandal that plagued Baylor during Starr's tenure included at least 17 women who had reported sexual or domestic assault involving 19 football players since 2011. The reports included four instances of alleged gang rapes, according to the Journal.
Convictions soon followed. In 2014, former Baylor football player Tevin Elliott was convicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison on two counts of sexually assaulting a former Baylor student in 2012.
When another football player was convicted of sexual assault the following year, Starr called for an internal inquiry into how the university handled the case. The internal inquiry led Starr to recommend that the university hire outside counsel to look into the school's response.
The results of the inquiry were damning. According to a summary of the findings of the law firm Pepper Hamilton released by the university in 2016, the investigators discovered a "fundamental failure" by Baylor to implement Title IX, the federal law that polices sexual violence on campus, as well as the Violence Against Women Reauthorization Act.
ttps://www.npr.org/2020/01/18/797622342/after-a-fall-at-baylor-ken-starr-became-a-fox-regular-and-then-a-trump-defender
You left out the most important part:
"After four years of unapologetic immorality from Donald Trump, the allegation by Judi Hershman that she had an affair with Ken Starr—he who moved heaven and earth 23 years ago to document in pornographic detail Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky—may seem quaint."
The media is owned by right-wing oligarchs who want it to produce right-wing outcomes, period. I admit, it's never been *quite* as blatant as it has been since Joe Biden's election. But that's all it is.
The media consists of business corporations. It is an integral propaganda part of the autocracy. It is effective as a brainwashing tool as long as it controls a voting majority.
Look at my words above. Almost half of those words suggest a target we can aim at.
Heck, I'm old enough to remember Eisenhower, who was inarticulate enough in his later presidential years to earn the scorn of those to the left of the center of the Democratic Party (though I have mellowed in my mature years toward Eisenhower and Truman).
👆🎯
“Misleading the public” is softer than “lying,” which is what is happening. I don’t see the point in minimizing.
The time for diplomacy and decorum is over.
"And bear in mind that Smoot-Hawley added to tariff rates that were already high, while this time we’re jumping from very low to very high tariffs almost instantly."
This is a very under reported point as many people don't have a good sense of dynamics. Complex, nonlinear systems can behave in very non-intuitive ways when perturbed by large, rapid impulses. We saw this during the pandemic shutdowns. We're about to see it again.
The last point is the crux. It would take months of stability in Trump’s tariff rate schedule to end the paralysis. And there’s no sign that that will happen…at any point.
When retailers like Walmart soon start passing along the 10% increase hitting their bottom line to consumers, inflation economy-wide will rise correspondingly. It will be fascinating to see how FOX News will spin THAT to the base. And if their current 90% approval of Trump will then change in any way.
Meanwhile, the GOP is set to pass a bill that will cut up to 20million from Medicaid, and in doing so close innumerable rural county hospitals already on the brink of bankruptcy. Which will hurt rural Red America immensely. All so that 0.2% of the population can buy another yacht.
Ironically, when retailers jack up their prices, consumers will pare spending to the bone, forcing retailers to reduce prices. It won't even have to be an organized boycott. People just won't buy what they can't afford and don't really need. Of course, there will also be organized boycotts on top of that.
One of the weird things about economics is that there is an element of mass psychology involved, which isn't really quantifiable, but does exist, so that's always a big gray area.
That won't force retailers to cut prices. When they can no longer show a profit, retailers will quit carrying certain items, and, in some cases, they will go out of business.
That too will happen, but there will be some price cuts - at the very least to clear existing inventory. Going out of business means having a fire sale.
Financially comfortable people will still pay the higher prices. There won't be much left for people who cannot afford those prices.
I went to the going-out-of-business sale for JoAnn's and noted that most prices were about the same as their usual sales prices when they were in business. Most people were buying at the sale where I live because there is no comparable store within at least an hour's drive.
If I understand the article correctly, there will be less goods on shelves, so I do not think the prices will come down.
That's a very real likelihood.
Since much of the tariffs are aimed at clothing it will be interesting to see how that plays out in the fashion world. I can see "pseudo" repairs with white thread showing up in the clothing people buy.
Everyone will start to look like me, LOL. I've been doing exactly that for a few years now, although I usually use black thread..
On second thought, tan colored thread may be a more powerful symbol.
It's quantified in the supply vs demand curves.
Oh, I see, the basis of real s/d curves in real life isn't quantifiable, is it? Oh, well.
It is - but only after the fact. It's a lagging indicator.
If not years or even decades.
Dear Prof Krugman,
My humble opinion on investors optimism.
90 days are probably enough for subsantially re-routing exports from China (e.g. through Vietnam or somewhere else, I don't know).
In addition, based on our Italian exepience with the introduction of the Euro and other experiences, tariffs will be used by the big corporations (listed on the stockmarkets, and basically operating in oligopolistic markets) to justify price increases, in fact increasing their margins (at least unitarian margins).
As usual there will be only 1 clear loser from Trump's "strategies": honest Americans.
That's the plan!
Thanks, I suspect it too.
Econ 101 for Godfellas…
His name is literally "Don".
😂😂😂
Pray that your limpdick, grifter Pres wrecks your economy because, to an outside observer , that looks like the only way enough of you will rise up and overthrow the Trumpists and their idiot Maga base.
That's very possible, but not definitive. We've already had two major demonstrations amassing half the 3.5% needed, and we're far from done.
It's a great reminder of the imperative that we continue to Rise! Resist! ✊✊✊
The next nationwide rally is June 14, yes >that< June 14, be there or be square!
Let's ruin Chump's B'day. We need 3.5% or the population, or around 12,000,000 people to be present. So bring all your friends and families. Spread the word as far and wide as possible. Let's all get out there with a Howard Beale spirit and yell "We're as mad as hell, and we're not gonna take it anymore!".
https://www.nokings.org/
Do not protest AT THE PARADE. IT'S A SETUP for an "insurrection" so that he can finally declare martial law, which is a distraction he desperately needs. With these soulless bastards, absolutely nothing is off the table. You will never convince me there was a legitimate assassination attempt either. All bets are off. Beware the Ides of June 14th. Nothing to be optimistic about. I'm sorry.
We can and will demonstrate everywhere else though. Yes, we should all avoid D.C. altogether. We're not going to give the Orange Scourge what he wants.
We will, however continue to Rise! Resist! ✊✊✊
Finally some optimism! Pocketbook issues will save us. Maybe.
I hope you haven't underestimated the passion of the maggots for their God and Savior.
AAPL is in real trouble, and now Trump is bullying Tim Cook, who could fight back by secretly backing a plan the distribute about two hundred million copies of this Paul Krugman essay.
He could also drop the new AI on iPhones from tracking their users.
The only way that the Republican voters who are not hot MAGAs will vote for a Dem or Independent in 2026 is when they personally feel the pain of Trump’s tariffs. That will be the only benefit of Trump’s tariff game playing. So, I will tighten my belt and watch Trump shoot himself in the foot.
Or the other alternative of them just staying home and not voting at all - which would also be a positive outcome for us.
What is really crazy, is that the Republicans are fully on board with enabling this self destruction of our country 😳 🙄.
That's because they still make out like bandits.
Indeed, Tariffs are a Federal sales tax above the regular state and local sales taxes. This all started with the notion of bringing back manufacturing and turned into a predatory taxation for all goods, not just from American companies in other nations whose products we buy here. So Tariffs are dishonest. They are offsets for tax giveaways to the wealthy. What should have been done was to increase the 15% foreign profits taxes to a higher amount than the national 21% corporate tax rate to incentivize company's return to our nation. So once again, the Wall Street White House is a lying sack of baloney. Tariffs are a fraud brought to you by Wall Street TV.
Universal tariffs won’t bring back critical manufacturing, or any manufacturing. Not even tariffs higher than corporate taxes. The effective corporate tax rate is way lower than 21%. Targeted tariffs and industrial policy would be the best option, but obviously that’s beyond tangface’s level of comprehension. The Biden administration gave us a great start in this direction but it would take decades of competent leadership for it to work. And, of course, no one is going to invest in US manufacturing as long as there’s a nitwit in charge who changes his “mind” hourly.
The notion of bringing back manufacturing was a lie, just as the "trickle down effect" was a lie. As you point out, it's all about the reverse Robin Hood effect.
No, it wasn't a lie. I started writing in NYTimes comments before Trump ran in 2015 of the importance of bringing back manufacturing for national security concerns.
Actually, manufacturing never left. The only thing that left was the manufacturing that required low income labor. Most of manufacturing job loss was to automation. If in fact, the rest of the manufacturing comes back, the jobs won’t come back with it.
yes, actual manufacturing output in the US has not declined significantly, but the percentage of the labor force engaged in manufacturing has done so. Automation has done more for that decline than free trade.
Points taken, but who will make our boots and jeans? I suggest it assures an entry level job for arriving immigrants if we can conquer super bigot.
Boots and jeans won't be made in the US (or Japan, Korea, China etc.) unless the capital to automate can show an ROI. Right now cheap labor in Bangladesh (Mexico, Viet Nam, etc.) makes the investment hard to justify. Tariff's that target the cheap labor imbalance might bring those jobs back but your boots and jeans are going to cost a lot more.
Ideally, and going back to the initial concern about security, what one would like to accomplish is some resiliency in these highly automated processes so that when Moms feel they need to hoard a little toilet paper that there is some elasticity in the 24/7/365 day operations that will meet that additional demand. I'd suggest then, that highly automated systems in oligopolistic industries somehow support that elasticity. The security interest could be the opportunity and niche that small manufacturing and low skilled employment could exploit. It's going to make the boots and jeans (and the TP) slightly more expensive but what you should get is the security of having elasticity in the supply and some entry level jobs.
I meant Trumpkopf's claim that tariffs would bring back manufacturing. That was a lie. I agree with you that we need to have strategically important manufacturing within our borders.
It may be important, but it's by and large impractical as to a huge volume and range of inexpensive consumer goods. Those jobs were offshored in the first place because production costs--primarily labor--were (and still are) so much lower overseas that stuff made here simply couldn't compete, even without the immense costs of massive shipping halfway around the world and distribution from ports, let alone the existing nominal tariffs.
As the professor notes, elasticity of demand is not going to result in transferring demand to domestic alternatives (because so few actually exist); it's just going to make the economy contract while prices go up anyway.
The tip of the iceberg is just beginning to peek out from under the waves. These are still unprecedented shocks to the entire global order, and the effects are just beginning. All of Dumpy Trump's mendacious men, women, and media horses can't unring the bell or get the toothpaste back into the tube.
Even better go back to Henry George and reverse the closing of the frontier by imposing a Federal franchise tax on unimproved land values to create intergenerational equality of access to land to live and raise a family on.
The regressive nature of the US economy has been on a slow slide since 1970. We’ve been robbed little by little and have had our collective pockets picked to the tune of $50 trillion. Now that process is being fast tracked and we are like the deer in the headlights, frozen with disbelief. Either we get out of the road, take action and avoid the collision, or we suffer the consequences.
This is a great reminder of the imperative that we continue to Rise! Resist! ✊✊✊
The next nationwide rally is June 14, yes >that< June 14, be there or be square!
Let's ruin Chump's B'day. We need 3.5% or the population, or around 12,000,000 people to be present. So bring all your friends and families. Spread the word as far and wide as possible. Let's all get out there with a Howard Beale spirit and yell "We're as mad as hell, and we're not gonna take it anymore!".
https://www.nokings.org/
It's the "The Apprentice" playbook - give the audience the illusion of success, and you'll get great ratings! He's the Reality TV president.
Only worse. Much worse.
"...retreat from complete, destructive insanity to seriously harmful madness."
Love it.
CBS News' headline yesterday said 'Walmart is planning to raise prices despite lower tariffs." It was so disingenuous it was ridiculous. They are absolutely same washing this crap.
Facebook average user's response and the general consensus from the comments? We won't shop there, we'll go somewhere with lower prices instead. Walmart is price gouging!
There are so, so many "poorly educated" people out there. Anymore Facebook and NextDoor make me feel like we're losing this battle. People are so confidently incorrect regarding the things happening right in front of them that the really have no actual concept of.
Smoot Hawley means nothing. Tariffs and basic economics are lost on them. They were never taught about the Great Depression. Civics knowledge is non existent. They have no idea what the Constitution says and worse, how it applies to them. I truly believe this is the majority we're dealing with. We're cooked.