412 Comments
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LarryG's avatar

The consumer blowback in Canada is stunning. There are demands to re draft labeling rules here to enforce country source on every product in the market place. The water cooler conversation is now "where did that stapler come from?", couldn't you find a Canadian suppler? No? Well order the European one". If Canadians are laid off due to Trump (and it's very very likely), every layoff notice will be headline news just like war reports from WW2. American suppliers have lost their Canadian business for the next 4 years and possibly for a generation. We are typically 10% of most consumer products top line. And this battle is only beginning.

Shauna's avatar

That is the tip of the iceberg I think .... so do we keep course like the Titanic or do we change their course. It will be only if he succeeds in breaking the US Government then the people/military must comply..... and we should have GUESSED with his Cabinet choices !!!! BUT it was shock and awe...but now...now we are in the 9th hour

LarryG's avatar

Sitting still is no longer an option it seems. The political/social hot mess in the USA is not the time to consider a merger. Actually, was thinking the yesterday perhaps a merger of Denmark/Greenland/Canada might be an appropriate political/economic union.

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Feb 12, 2025
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Tyler P. Harwell's avatar

It really is not. Destruction of both is.

john schut's avatar

Canada supplys almost 60% of U.S. aluminum. Opening an aluminum foundry is not like opening a new corner convenience store. A few weeks will not cut. Try years! How will America replace Canada's low cost aluminum? It can't. If the tarrifs on aluminum are implemented these costs will infiltrate the supply chain and result in higher prices across a broad range of consumer goods from aluminum foil, roasting pans Ford F150 pickups, computers to aircraft. Yes, tarrifs will certainly be a victory for the U.S., a Pyrrhic victory; a victory that comes at a significant cost to the victor that is almost tantamount to defeat.

Tyler P. Harwell's avatar

Ah so good to point out. So the US is a price taker for aluminum and this tariff will boomerang. Tariffs will be based on as higher prices and will hurt domesticanufs turning while raiding prices.

john schut's avatar

It's the "hot stove" paradigm. The current U.S. Administration needs to burn its hands first. Ouch!! i.e. stock market reaction, job losses, congressional defections etc. Bad burns will diminish the allure of tarrifs. Once burned, twice shy!

Charles Ryder's avatar

I can't believe we're getting such lunatic policies from the president who inquired about using nuclear weapons to fight hurricanes.

Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

That and drinking bleach and injecting Lysol to fight covid. Very stable genius indeed.

Shauna's avatar

IF Elon Musk BUYS AI ChatGPT - then was the election rigged by him or maybe just the 4 years of disinformation and his extra thrust was enough With the US Government in HIS favour and unable to block/stop him, THIS is BAD..very very bad. HE is BRILLIANT enough to have figured all this out .... You know all this has to STOP.... there is more trouble here than a Globe will handle

Thomas's avatar

Is ChatGPT even for sale?

Albert Jaeger's avatar

As a lapsed economist, I am not totally unhappy that Trump is willing to use the US as a Guinea pig for testing the empirical size of import demand and supply elasticities. As a consumer and tax payer, I increasingly believe that we need a stronger version of the 25th amendment, i.e. there should be a mandatory psychological evaluation of our presidents when they show clear signs of madness.

Matt Gregg's avatar

The weakness of the American system is that the people can't call for a new election themselves. I realize lots of countries don't have this, but our system sorely needs a legal mechanism for the people to depose a president and a whole administration earlier than normally scheduled.

LL's avatar

Under a Parliamentary system, the US House could bring down the government and force an election whenever the government (or in this case, Trump) loses the confidence of the House.

Matt Gregg's avatar

Yep :) But, I'd rather not be depending on Republicans to do that thing these days anyway. If we had proportional representation like many parliamentary systems, or runoff voting even, so that there weren't just 2 parties, maybe. The founders really should have created a way for the people to directly recall the President in the US.

Mike Shafer's avatar

I would offer that the test for sanity should be the election process but that has clearly failed. Starting with the loss of the Fairness Doctrine in the late 1980s disinformation and a substantial loss of applying critical thinking skills has been the ongoing "pandemic" ever since. As to the economics I believe we have sufficient empirical data in that area to know what the results will be.

Tom's avatar

When I saw NY Times, WaPo and LA Times sane-washing trump's babble, I lost all faith in them. There was a universe of difference between the two candidates but they portrayed them as equals.

Jan in VA's avatar

Trump: PINO.

President In Name Only

User's avatar
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Feb 12, 2025
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Jan in VA's avatar

did you watch him and Elon yesterday in the Oval Office? Elon was totally in charge. Trump sat behind his desk like a 1st grader. It was pathetic. Elon and his minions are tearing the place up, Trump has given him all the authority, and the R Congress is so terrified they are doing nothing but defend him (and filling his cabinet with people who have zero business being there).

Michelle Kaskey's avatar

Musks kid was more engaged than trump

Sharon's avatar

I find it quite disgusting that he wears his child like an expensive purse.

John Gregory's avatar

but he's a puppet of Musk, who rides off in all directions (but generally to quash a regulation or an investigation that involves his ability to make money without restriction). So Musk can let Trump rant, while Musk targets the agencies that have had the nerve to try to rein him in.

GJ Loft ME CA FL IL NE CT MI's avatar

And Project 2025, even though he denied it way more than Peter denied Jesus.

Thomas's avatar

Worth noting that Musk is roughly as irrational and uncontrolled as Trump, so him acting on behalf of Musk doesn't actually make him more controlled and rational.

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Feb 12, 2025
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Shauna's avatar

Nope...Musk is MAKING MUCH MUCH More $$$ from the US Government - who's payments he now controls ;) AND if they sell him AI in ChatGBT = HEAVEN HELP US Literally. If Functioning the US Government would have blocked this...hmmmmmmmmm see a Musk plan.

Shauna's avatar

NOT if breaking the US so badly...then it's people had no choice and then will comply with ??? Russia is a good guess ;) Trump is now insane, we all know that...Project 2025 is to BREAK and KEEP power..... forever...a must even to keep even just Trump out of Jail.

It is cute to think, that elections from here on in will not be RIGDED, exactly as fair as Russian elections :) .......

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Feb 12, 2025
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Morris Green's avatar

Nope, Hitler was popular because his arms manufacturing investments in the 1930s put German workers back to work while the Western World did nothing to end the Great Depression and President Hoover (Rep) pretended prosperity was just around the corner.

Racunista's avatar

Thanks for this helpful analysis. To date, experts like yourself have been able to count on sources of statistics which are generally regarded as reliable, impartial and accountable. Are you worried about the future availability of such information?

Tim's avatar

Racunista,

Availability is a concern, but data manipulation may pose an even more significant threat—especially concerning the CPI-W, which underpins Social Security and other benefits. Cost-of-living adjustments are already delayed and arguably insufficient; if they’re skewed further from actual inflation, retirees and other recipients will feel real harm.

We’ve seen “stealth taxation” in action through the Social Security Amendments of 1983 (Public Law 98-21) and adjustments made by the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (Public Law 103-66), where more Social Security income became taxable over time. Yet most Americans haven’t raised much of a fuss over these gradual shifts—suggesting they might also miss or dismiss any quiet manipulation of CPI-W data. As Paul Krugman has observed, you can’t hide false figures forever. Still, with AI-enabled dynamic pricing (airline tickets are just one example), the lines between genuine costs and manipulated indexes are getting blurrier. Ultimately, manipulation of these measures is likely a greater danger than mere information scarcity.

Tim

Somewhere, Somehow's avatar

I read an earlier column where he discussed this very subject. My take away: yes, statistical analysis will likely be manipulated especially as the economy flounders due to musk’s policies. However, US gov is not the only entity keeping tack of such things. I will count on the good professor to inform me on which stats are reliable.

Shauna's avatar

same figures as China puts out

Tim's avatar

Shauna,

The erosion of Hong Kong and Macau are case studies for this. The type of manipulation that Musk would enable is likely not reactive to Winnie-the-Pooh type influences though. The threat here is corruption not saving face.

The comparison doesn't really hold.

Tim

Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

There will be nothing but Newspeak.

Shauna's avatar

Yes..that is how it is in Russia and if it works well for Putin's power it will work well to keep Trump in Power...once the people fully understand what happened..it's too late. It took Hitler only 33 days to take over the Germain Government with create the SS

Winston Smith London Oceania's avatar

I don't believe that's the case. We're not Russia nor are we Germany circa 1933. We have a long standing "underground" that will emerge rather explosively soon.

Ginny K's avatar

I think it's because the #DirtyOldRapist's wife #3 took a fancy to the young Trudeau and the photo of their 2019 air kiss went viral. Sound petty and childish? Check and check.

Tim's avatar

Ginny,

The polarization of wealth has made public personal vendettas that social justice and history are laying at the feet of our billionaire overlords. Vivian Wilson, Epstein, and WWE have an inordinate hold on our leadership. It makes me want to read Hunter Biden's laptop.

The last true public servant was Jimmy Carter. Will we ever get another President who attacks swamp rabbits and considers his engagement to his spouse as the most important moment in his life? I doubt it.

Tim

Somewhere, Somehow's avatar

Agree. She looked smitten (to be polite).

Shauna's avatar

I think to Trump....it is LAND :) :) Mexico with be 2nd and easier after Canada....but what ....the rest of the free world SEE's too ... Gaza, Canada, Panama, Greenland - well it doesn't take Real Estate 101 to SEE what the PLAN is ...its the back ground partner that is hiding ......

GrrlScientist's avatar

Professor Krugman: in addition to making us poorer, the orange toddler's temper tantrum will also make us sicker and deader. so not only will ameriKKKa be hated and feared globally, but even its own citizens hate and fear the country. i know i do.

Roger Fradenburgh's avatar

"Small, Ugly and Stupid" is an apt description of not only the Emperor's tariffs, but also of the Emperor himself.

Mark Segal's avatar

Just three points:

(1) The tariff business isn't only Trump. It's backed by his advisors who in turn have their self-interested backers. For one example, you need only read Robert Lighthizer's essay in last Saturday's NYT (Want Free Trade? May I Introduce You to the Tariff) to see the 21st century version of Mercantilism writ-large. I've been encouraging Paul Krugman to take that essay apart but this plea has not been taken-up yet. It's the "intellectual" foundation of Trump's thinking on tariffs and needs to be dealt with.

(2) Canada seriously needs to rethink its whole industrial strategy (if it ever had one that went beyond relying for 18% of its GDP on exports to the USA). It needs to start with dismantling its foolish inter-provincial trade barriers, and then move on to the auto, public transport and defense industries, re-conceptualizing them to survive essentially without American product, in partnership with other such industries internationally. I target these industries because they are the backbone of much other industry, including steel and aluminum. Will take time, effort and money, but the traditional model of these periodic begging sessions to remain within the American tent is by now obviously not sustainable, because the US is not trustworthy, and trust lies at the heart of any sustainable trade agreement.

(3) Notwithstanding (2) above, perhaps manufacturing industry is not in Canada's future, and the country needs to be a whole lot more aggressive than it has been in advancing its burgeoning high tech sectors - this is where the biggest value-added may be, and if it can get every successful start-up to stop selling out to the US, a true Canadian high-tech sector could be the country's future, dwarfing autos, steel and Trump's shenanigans.

Tim's avatar

Mark,

That escalated quickly—now this is Canada’s problem? I’m not sure what Canada should do beyond responding tit-for-tat until morale improves. Suggesting Canada can pivot its entire industrial base away from the U.S. oversimplifies things. Dismantling inter-provincial barriers or fostering a high-tech sector sounds great on paper, but long-term strategies won’t shield Canada from immediate economic fallout. Economic integration isn’t just about trust—it’s about proximity, scale, competitive advantage, and shared infrastructure that can’t be unraveled overnight.

We need to tax smartly—not tariffically. Trump is an idiot, full stop. This isn’t a Canada problem per se. The Ontario ads during the Super Bowl were well-placed; maybe Michigan/the Midwest States should return the favor during the Stanley Cup. I kid (mostly), but I’m not ready to pivot into Canadian reforms when this is an America-first issue.

Tim

Tyler P. Harwell's avatar

Tim what about the GST ? Is it broad enough ? Are their loopholes. How does it impact trade ? Should we all be things about that subject in broader terms ?

Tim's avatar

Tyler,

GST and VAT taxes are more transparent since they’re built into pricing but are still regressive. In Canada, GST is broad enough, but provincial add-ons and export exemptions create loopholes. GST’s impact on trade isn’t always obvious—it’s subtle and varies by region.

We should be thinking about this. Paul has suggested VAT taxes before, but I’m conflicted. My values lean toward progressivity (which makes me skeptical of GST), but I also care about fairness—and if essentials like food and housing are exempted, maybe I can live with it. VAT systems can address regressiveness, depending on how they are implemented.

What are you suggesting here?

Tim

PipandJoe's avatar

I appreciate the fact that you put "intellectual" in quotes and yes, the tariffs will likely drive a lot of our trading partners into the arms of our competitors.

Canada may be able to import NIH doctors and other intellectuals, as well who are getting budget cuts here from DOGE.

Peter Wood's avatar

“We have learned that we cannot live alone at peace, that our own wellbeing is dependent on the wellbeing of other nations far away,” he declares, “We have learned to be citizens of the world. We have learned…The only way to have a friend is to be one.” - FDR, January 20, 1945.

Apparently, trump has no use for friends; bootlickers yes, friends, not so much.

Somewhere, Somehow's avatar

I do not believe he has true friends.

J Mance Gordon's avatar

His mercantilist view of economic prosperity comes from a simpleton’s logic that we’re stronger if we make it ourselves. He shut be focusing on closing the foreign partition of revenue with little to no connection to these tax havens.

J Mance Gordon's avatar

Good points. And I’m a bit cynical. It may not even be adherence to trickle-down economics ideology. Rather, they are simply self-interested and see securing greater profit potential for corporate benefactors as a means to increase their personal wealth.

Tim's avatar

TBP,

An appeal to logic? We’re far beyond that point.

I’d love to have a serious conversation about taxes—that’s where the real issues lie. But this leadership, and the broader Republican agenda, is still stuck on trickle-down economics, with tax partitioning taking priority over meaningful reform.

Tim

Tyler P. Harwell's avatar

Id be happy to engage with you on that subject. .But it is hopeless to talk of tax reform.

Tim's avatar

Tyler,

Sigh... agree. I'm struggling to find a constructive policy to endorse or place hope, but the conversation needs to focus on taxes. People understand that. It's real.

I'm not giving up hope. I AM giving up on the Phillips Curve-based Democratic economic agenda. We need to get away from employment and talk about standard of living (focusing on health, education, and the environment) and ... taxation. Mostly stealth taxation, progression, and TBP's target ==> partition. Concerning taxation, we must eliminate stealth taxes and find a macro-solution to the max/min for progression and partition. Taxes are out of whack in more ways than this, but it would be a start.

Tim

Somewhere, Somehow's avatar

R’s are working on a $4.5 Billion tax cut (WSJ), not that it will benefit anyone here.

Shauna's avatar

Dear Professor Krugman....by no small measure, your information keeps me sane right now ....when nothing seems to make sense ....Thank you !

Erin's avatar

Of course Canada wouldn't join as one big state. You'd never get Quebec to agree, so it's 2 minimum. But seeing as there are 13 provinces and territories, adjust for Alberta... and you're definitely not looking at a GOP majority anymore. So that would be a pretty mighty own-goal.

And I think he's still mad about that look Melania was giving the rather handsome Mr. Trudeau as caught on photo, but that's just me.

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Feb 12, 2025
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Edwin Callahan's avatar

Why would you think that Canadians actually would get the vote? Canada would be dragged in as a subservient colony.

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Feb 12, 2025
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Edwin Callahan's avatar

Trump only cares about his interests.

Anne H's avatar

Trump is aiming to squash Canada. Guessing someone behind the throne wants our resources?

Doubt they want our people as we are a determined socialist bunch.

Newest threats are the 25% steel, Al in addition to the paused 25%, 100% on cars made in Canada (note the Canada car industry started back when the American one did and there has been a free trade in cars since the 1960s).

There has been disappointingly little pushback from Americans. You seem worried about the effect on you, but care nothing about your neighbours. That may just be the American attitude to life in general as not a whole lot of pushback to protect your literal (trans, gay, federal civil servant etc) neighbours either.

Pandora’s Box's avatar

There has been pushback but it’s not getting reported as much.

Somewhere, Somehow's avatar

Certainly not reported. Rachel Maddow has been doing a huge public service showing the pushback of federal workers. I say bravo Ratchel.

Somewhere, Somehow's avatar

Boomers are the worst (I am one). Born in a sterile hospital, baby removed from Mom in the 1st minutes of life, raised in front of a TV. Any wonder why many have no empathy for others.

Todd Goldman (DrJenAdjacent)'s avatar

Trumps craziness has had at least one very positive effect. Before the tariffs and threats to annex Canada, Pierre Poileievre, a Trump wannabe and career politician who has accomplished little to nothing, was leading in the Canadian polls. Now, Mark Carney, the guy who kept Canada clear from the mortgage debacle that hit the US in 2009, has come from nowhere to become the preferred candidate to replace Trudeau. So Canada might now avoid the debacle that is hitting the US in terms of incompetence at the top.