It’s rather frustrating to read a discussion by intelligent people attempting to make sense of Trump’s belligerent ignorance. There’s no logic to Trump’s tariffs, no underlying strategy. He has this wrong-headed notion that he can restore the American economy back to the 1960s (or the 1890s). He’s convinced that tariffs will do that. He’s also convinced that all the experts are corrupt, and that he is the only one who knows the truth. He’s surrounded himself with sycophants like Navarro, Bessent and Lutnick who will just nod enthusiastically and tell him what wonderful ideas he has. None of this tariff stuff makes sense, it’s patently absurd, but given that you two are economists, you have to assess this as if it was a reasonable economic strategy. You’re searching for the pony in the pile of horseshit. Hint - there’s no pony.
I admit one could find plausible corrupt rationalizations for Trump’s crazy tariff behavior but one also has to keep in mind that he has never been successful at any business he controlled. The only success he really ever had was playing a successful businessman on a reality TV show that he didn’t control.
That plus it contributes to the destruction of democracy, also a primary goal of the Grifter in Chief. It would help him seize even more unchecked power - in addition to making it easier for him to purloin any loose capital.
Tariffs at a whim + exceptions at a whim = opportunity for corruption. Add in deregulation of crypto and memcoins, the perfect vehicles for payoffs, and you have a plan for enrichment at the expense of us rubes.
He's trying to convince us that the rest of the world is taking advantage of us. What he's actually doing is projecting, like always.
Not just payoffs, but global money laundering. It is no coincidence that Putin wrote using cryptocurrency to evade sanctions into legislation last summer and, literally within a few weeks, Trump announces his new family cryptocurrency scheme scam
Agree. I think there is a substantial emotional, animosity toward Trudeau and of course the whole “illegal immigration” issue—he makes it all personal to him. You cross me, you will pay for it.
I often wonder who gets to trade options ahead of Trump’s volatility inducing tweets - and how much money they are making - seems like AI could try these kind of trades and narrow down who’s getting rich off of them because I’m sure there’s a strong correlation
The logic of this is that in some way or ways. it makes money for the Trump family. I think it's also about control. He sees how Putin has become rich an he will try to use the same pathways, only the US could potentially be so much more lucrative for him. To use a Krugman phrase" Nice supply chain you have there. It would be a shame if anything happened to it".
The maddening thought continues to occur & frustrate me too as discussions by intelligent & knowledgeable economists attempt to make sense of Trump’s ignorance. There’s very little logic or strategic anything to Trump’s “plans”………mortifying and cringeworthy……..and potentially so destructive!!!!
It's not ignorance. It's the "weave": Trump's name for conflicting decisions. It's a brilliant strategy to instill the worst fear in your adversary. Examples, for a Palestinian, permanent removal from Gaza is worse than death. For Western Europe, lack of U.S. military is worse than spending more on self-defense. For a hopeful undocumented immigrant, arriving in the U.S. to be immediately flown home to start all over again is one's worst fear.
It could be unless, the end goal is the permanent removal or further marginalization of the Palestinians. That's not something the Arab world wants and Israel would be further isolated internationally.
It could be unless, Western Europe unites into a stronger block, both economically and militarily and shuts us out as unreliable partners in anything.
I can't see how betraying and insulting our former allies can benefit us, even in the short term. I read that there were threats made to Canada that we would expel them from the Five Eyes- UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, US - intelligence sharing pact if they don't become the 51st state. (It may be bogus, but it sounds like what's coming out of the White House right now.) I started to laugh about that. Of course there are only Four Eyes now. Who in their right mind would share intelligence with US!
The weave is too erratic and destructive to be admired.
Yes, that's its power. We live in the twilight zone. Under Bush II is was WMDs. During the War in Vietnam, it was the domino theory and the attack in the Gulf of Tonkin. During the run-up to the Spanish-American War , it was sabotage of the battleship Maine in Havana Harbor Cuba.
Trump thinks trade deficits are bad things, that ‘you’ are ‘subsidising’ them. Well, follow that thought process and all lending and borrowing is wrong and should just stop. Coming from someone in real estate, which depends a great deal on borrowing, the thought process seems beyond weird.
How stupid is this guy? However, there is nice stupid and nasty stupid. He is deeply, deeply nasty. He really is a creature of the dark.
It is frustrating to read intelligent people trying to parse Trump’s tariff policy, but important to get a grasp on how Trump is damaging the economic systems, as Dr. K and Ms. Loving do. The mistake people make is in assuming that Trump thinks about his tariff policies in economic terms. Trump could care less about the economy, he’s working on another level that has nothing to do with “elitist” economics. All this blustery threat and saber-rattling is about softening up his trading “foes” (not partners), so he can swoop in and cadge a “better” deal (one that makes him look good, smart, powerful). Trump is like the kidnapper who starts clipping off and sending appendages to his hostage’s loved ones. His wild gyrations, tariffs on, tariffs off, are nothing more than crazy stunts (the more unhinged the better) to keep the price up for allowing his hostage (the US economy) to live for another day. It’s the same play he’s making in Ukraine, with NATO, with DOGE and the government (only with DOGE he’s taking organs and gonna sell them on the black market). He has a strategy, it just has nothing to do with rational policy, it’s all about shaking things up, tearing things down, making people fear for their lives (or life savings in this case) and looking for opportunities to step in, make a play that he can spin to his benefit, make it look like he had it figured out all along. This is his MO, he can do no other.
They begin their search for meaning in reliance on the wrong premise. And you have followed them. If you operate from the premise that the Kremlin has given Trump a plan to follow for the destruction of America, what he is doing makes a lot more sense. Indeed, it makes perfect sense for it is a wish list of what Vladimir Putin would like to see done to the United States. The probability that this is the result of incompetence, stupidity, ignorance or coincidence is near zero. Russians study America. In high circles of government, the military, and academia, there is full understand of how one would go about causing the collapse of American government and society. They probably teach courses on this.
I think it’s a bit of an error to believe that all of this is simply the expression of Donald Trump’s personal pathology. That makes him omnipotent, which he isn’t. There are many much smarter people around him who are driving his weak-minded obsessions.
Donald has surrounded himself with bellicose, reality-conflicted actors on the far right who share many of his pathologies. Of course some people in and outside of his circle, who may be described as more rational, just see this behavior as furthering their general aims.
I just finished reading the transcript and marveled at how Krugman and Lovely avoid using words like “ignorant,” “childish,” “self-destructive,” and a wide assortment of curse words that floated actively in my brain while considering their discussion.
John, you touched on something I thought as I read and listened. People, smarr people, keep being astounded at Trump's off-the-wall behaviors, saying, as Mary indicated, the experts in the field of the moment think he'll do x,y,z, because that's what a normal person would do. TRUMP IS NOT NORMAL. PLEASE QUIT TRYING TO NORMALIZE HIS BEHAVIOR!!!
The business community must be slowly starting to worry that their man in the white house is not actually their man. But it might be too late to reverse course and the US may end up like 1990s Russia, corrupt and lawless.
Exactly. These two brilliant minds can't make sense of what is going on. What is going on seems to be one of these: 1) Trump et al truly are not smart. Nobody driving the car knows what they are doing. 2) Brilliant but malignant man-behind-the-curtain Stephen Miller just wants to break it all Khmer Rouge style.
Or both, actually. Incidentally, I must take exception to your portrayal of Stephen Miller as "Brilliant". He's just a cunning opportunistic scavenger/predator. About as brilliant as a vulture circling over a soon to be cadaver in the desert.
John, think outside the box. The threat of tariffs is part of Trumps "weave" strategy: instill in your adversary his/her worst fear to strengthen the cards you hold.
Interesting to continue reading article after article claiming that most Americans don't understand the basics Nuts and Bolts of their Governments workings? Leaving too many listening to charlatans only too willingly sharing their self serving positions and fixes that will correct, 'all of our ills'
Thank the gods that America is doing away with Foreign Trading, Education Department, the need to vote, Congress, the various constitutional Amendments, (especially the pesky First one) lefty Universities, Free Press and not least WOKNESS!
Just one question, who's left to turn out the lights of what was once America???
I have been trying to understand the logic of why he would do things like the tariffs since it would also harm him economically. Here's the answer, I think, and Russian post-Soviet history bears it out. Jess Piper of The View From Rural Missouri notes that what seems to be a deliberate attempt to crash what was, when Trump took office, a booming U.S. economy, is a feature of the administration’s plan, not a bug. It creates “curated failure” that enables oligarchs to buy up the assets of the state and of desperate individuals for “rock-bottom prices.”
In other words, it might seem to hurt him economically - on the face of it - but in the end provides much in the way of spoils for him to purloin, plunder and pillage.
I think there are some smart individuals who are waiting for this, but we don't know their names. They are in the background waiting and positioning themselves.
Trump isn't smart or disciplined. He's lucky and cunning. He has a con man's feel for the mark. Remember all of his business failures and bankruptcies. He'd have been toast without his father's money and the lucky Apprentice break.
Yes, Sharon, I envision shady characters waiting in the wings and sharpening their knives like the Big Bad Wolf for the feast to come. I suspect that one way or the other, Trump will eventually be tossed aside when he has outlived his usefulness to these jackals. Then it will be President Vance with Musk calling the shots.
I think that the seeming randomness of the tariff-not-tariff-not seesaw gives Trump the opportunity to influence loyalist sentiment with his "swoop in and save" by changing course and appearing to be strong--giving the impression that his tariff threats are gaining actual advantages for the US, even though the opposite is true.
I agree but even more significant perhaps is that making exceptions to tariffs opens the coor for corruption, as they happened in Trump 1 (Paul Krugman pointed this out in a column once). But they remain a club he can hold over the head of those who pay for exceptions if they don't toe the line.
Intentional destruction does seem to be the goal. For instance, I think that Musk will try to break Social Security but blame it all on Biden. (Trump continues to pretend to support Social Security and Medicaid, but he no longer controls Musk and when the sh*t hits the fan, he'll just say, "bear with me", as he did at his State of the Union address.) Then Musk and his techbros can come in and privatize the system, win all the contracts for running it, and claim that they are saving it.
To bring back manufacturing in many additional industries, like clothing for instance, you need capital. My brother-in-law lost his clothes sewing business in North Carolina in the 1990's due to the Chinese setting up sewing operations over there. He had a small operation with about 50 seamstresses. If, for some bizarre unforeseen reason, he thought that he could make a living doing this again, it would cost him at least $750K for equipment and then finding a space to sew in. Why would someone go into debt for a business like this.
Walmart, Target, TJ Maxx, etc. aren't going to pay more for clothing just because it was sewn in the US. The time to protect manufacturing in the US was 30 years ago. Most of this manufacturing isn't coming back.
You need more than capital - you need massive automation and in turn massive economies of scale - to some extent, the Chinese have already won that battle. I cannot express enough that it is the "value add" in any sector which drives the wealth creation that in turn "re-shores" the industry. What value does low skilled employment bring to any US manufacturing sector? Apart from physical location, what comparative advantage can there be? The artificial barrier to entry provided by tariffs are paid for by the US consumer, or as Trump has suggested lower taxes on US mfg'd goods - which again is paid for out of US tax revenue through tax avoidance - tax $$ for low skilled domestic labor. These are not plans for economic growth.
The documentary “American Factory” in 2019 explored Chinese manufacturing dominance. It concluded with scenes of Chinese CEOs planning to offshore production to Vietnam and other cheaper Asian labor countries because Chinese labor had become too expensive. They were also planning to switch to more automation for the same reason. Americans are decades out of date in discussing manufacturing and what to do with excess labor capacity. China is facing the same challenges the US faced in the late 1970s-early 1980s, which is when deindustrialization really took off here. Tariffs won’t work any better than when Europeans tried to protect their industry from cheaper American manufacturing at the end of the 19th century.
The see saw of on and off Tarifs has the stench of insider trading. Stock market down? A call to Trump as investors pounce before it goes up when he says”never mind.”
Great point. Probably an underrated element of this whole affair. Let your friends know you’re announcing big tariffs steel and aluminum in a few days so they short Alcoa and GM. Let them know you’re rescinding the tariffs a few days later so they can buy on the dip etc
From Canada, with disgust: I’m speechless. A chain reaction is about to unfold around the globe. In the end, the sum of it all may very well result in a costly and lengthy world recession.
All this, from a man and his posse of cronies and hang-around thugs who, just days before his inauguration, launched meme coins to allow foreign governments and wealthy donors to funnel money and wealth to his family.
And yet, intellectually and financially poor—if not worse, opportunistic—citizens continue to cheer him on to this day. Some even celebrate the incompetents he has appointed to lead the institutions that will remain after he shuts down or destroys the others.
Siding with the worst former enemies of the state against allies…
I need to pause.
Meanwhile, the best the opposition could muster was to raise some sort of lollipop at the State of the Union speech—many of them likely guilty themselves of abusing the privileges of their own office to enrich their families while in power.
How dire the situation has now become.
There is no way any economist could have modeled this.
Better educational system. We have local financing, so 90% of public schools are poorly educated (like our 90% of the population is barely making ends meet).
A better distribution of wealth also means a better distribution of education. 90% of Canadians have a better understanding of the world and the US than do Americans.
Sometimes fact is stranger than fiction, and we're living through precisely such times. Hence my frequent references to Rod Serling and the Twilight Zone when discussing it.
I read a NYT article buried down deep, that high US government officials and Trump told Canadian officials that they want to revisit the border agreements, lake and water agreements...things that have been established for over a hundred years. The Canadian officials were told the US goal was to wreck them economically in order to take them over.
If there are any recordings of those meetings they should be widely published, especially in Canada.
People will withstand a lot of economic hardship out of patriotism.
There are too many things that the US (& others) need from Canada, and our economy is better organized than most countries. Better than the US in some respects, with a lot of resiliance.
Nothing will give us more resolve than unfair attacks from the US.
I read a theory somewhere, either on Noah Smith's blog or r/neoliberal, that Trump is enamored with tariffs because they provide an amazing opportunity to extort favors from companies. Since the president can grant exemptions to tariffs, it pretty much gives Trump the ability to pick winners and losers.
So there's all this, much of which flew right over my non-economist head. But, maybe because I haven't run a brush through my tangles yet, it left a big red egg behind. With some trepidation I gave it a tap and out flew a Phoenix holding a banner which said, "Trump is dumb as a stump." As she flew off she started singing a cheery song: Fear Not. This too shall pass, sooner than you might imagine.'
Can't see this insanity ending soon; we're still on the upward trajectory of madness and damage to the economies of the world, and the institutions and reputation of the US. How do you think this will end? Stopping the tariff wars won't renew the trust or the agreements, the trade structures, or asset management. Not coming back anytime soon: now that NAFTA has been torn up by your government, how soon do you think Canada will enter into another one? Not in a hundred years; Canada and Canadians are looking for closer alliances with Europe. That's the future. Your chosen allies are Russia and North Korea. Good luck.
That's a really pessimistic perspective, albeit an understandable one. Trumpkopf didn't choose Russia as an ally - they chose him as an easy to exploit asset, and he's serving them well.
Little by little, those of us who weren't paying attention are finally starting to wake up to the catastrophe that is this administration. Soon enough, they will join the rest of us who are already rising and resisting. Watch for the results of our midterms. I'll go out on a limb and predict a Democratic sweep of both chambers.
It will take a long time for us to reverse and repair the damage though. I don't expect that to happen in my lifetime, but I'll be happy to see the ball get rolling before I croak.
At the rate he's going, what do you seriously think will be the state of the world, and the US , by the time the midterms roll around? I'm trying here, but I really can't see the US holding out another month or two, let alone another 20 months. And I think experts agree with me.
That's a near impossible question to answer right now. So many variables can change - even from one day to the next - there's no telling where we'll land.
I'll tell you one thing though, the resistance is growing, and I'll stick my neck out and declare that we will hold up over the next month or two, and the next 20 months, and the Dems will sweep both chambers come November 2026.
Tried to understand all of this as best I can. It is so important. I am an artist in the middle of my 6th decade. Unfortunately I never had a brain that worked well in the study of economics and it is especially confused these days, but go ahead, ask me anything you want about color!
Referring to the last paragraph or so, I don’t see how DT’s tariffs benefit any of us, including those people who do understand all the ins and outs of tariffs. Just seems like he is trying to blow up every single thing and ruin our lives. Your thoughts?
That descent actually started 8 years ago under Trump I. Just look at average life expectancies. The gap between us and any Western European nation has grown every year since. (Biden slowed down the descent by supporting Medicaid and the ACA, but all that will be gone in a year and the gap will grow bigger.)
Some have already mentioned that it does allow for corruption, as the tarif laws have provision for exemption. Just like Trump got millions of dollars in settlement of phony lawsuits a little before his inaugeration, presumably for special treatment by companies which do business with the US, or may be regulated by the US.
Large revenus from tarifs may also be a way to reduce taxes for the rich & super-rich (which includes Trump & Musk).
High tarifs are a regressive form of taxation (meaning everyone pays the same percentage, rich or poor), unlike income tax, which is (normally) progressive.
Lower tarifs encourage international trade, where countries tend to produce what they are more efficient at. (Low-wage economies produce labour-intensive goods, high-wage economies favour those with more education.)
I think the tariffs are a distraction from the destruction of functioning government institutions. Tariffs are a distraction from a huge tax cut for the wealthy and cuts to the social safety net.
However, the tariffs, Musk and Trump may be blamed...but the Christian Nationalists waiting patiently with clean hands, the 2025 people, will be ready to step in and save us.
I’m glad you two are doing deep dives into this whiplash road we’re on. But two comments if I may. Do you really believe that there are sincere reasons for this strategy. I just see stock market manipulation and then move on to another aspect of the economy to destroy. Maybe replacing our money with useless cryptocurrency. Repubs are lying, greedy bastards, following a mob boss. Everybody is going berserk looking for logic and strategies for improving things when the goal is destruction. As things collapse, guess who will be available to take “privatization” of any government services to the max level. The unknown factor is who is waiting in the wings, oligarchs or Vlad?
Vlad is just encouraging the chaos. He knows that Russia is much better allied with the Chinese dictatorship, but if chaos in the US lets him advance with his empire building, all the better.
The corruption associated with the chaos is a big plus for the grifters, with the grifter-in-chief (DT) & his handlers, & the associated oligarchs
All who read Paul’s columns are disqualified from determining the outcome of elections because they’re not low information voters. As intellectually stimulating as it is to follow what amount to grad school economics seminars, 2026 will turn on the price of F150s, gasoline and groceries and whether the family bread winner is bringing home any bread. Assume for a moment there will be no tariffs on vehicles finished in Canada and Mexico: tariffs on steel, aluminum, energy and agricultural produce should still be enough to turn more than a few red districts in the rust belt. Gassing USAID may turn a couple of heartland districts, and cancelling green energy projects in Appalachia a few more. Anf every GOP politician in Washington knows this.
I’d like to think you’re right, but it appears that economic changes do not affect the political attitudes of low-information voters. The price of eggs is just an excuse to exercise their profound hatred of the idea of fair treatment for black Americans and other marginalized groups that low-information voters don’t like. Last I checked, the felon-in-chief was still riding a 51% approval rating, and that’s across all demographics. It’s probably more like 70% for the white working class and 80% for white evangelicals. In other words, the stupidity and chaos perpetrated by the rethug crowd has not changed their popularity with US voters.
Interesting, but scary stuff. I hope you follow up with some more granular discussion on the impact to the consumer, nationally and regionally, if at all possible. Hard to predict, I know, when the leader of the free world believes in transgender mice.
The mice are “transgenic,” actually. I learned this at the protest against Trump’s anti-science policy actions. Paul and Mary could help us by offering tips on how best to oppose the tariffs and support protection of the complex and efficient supply chains such as the Detroit-Windsor symbiotic nexus.
A customer behind me at Whole Foods yesterday raved about saving a dollar on strawberries. I suggested that he might do well to plant his own this spring due to the Trump tariffs. He demurred (too many deer on his property). Added that he’d purchased Driscoll strawberries, assuming they were grown in the USA. I said that Driscoll probably had farms in Mexico. He checked the label and fell silent.
Thank you for this insightful discussion. This is the type of content we need to educate ourselves to get a bigger picture around this matter. Like Paul mentioned, tariffs can be boring until they are not anymore.
There is alot of news coverage around tariffs, but they rarely explain the background and implications. One example is that the trade deficit with Canada is energy related.
I worked at the World Bank for several years on trade policy, advising on bringing down tariffs and removing import quotas and licenses in countries like Morocco and Mexico (yes, Mexico) in the 1980s, when I led the design and negotiations of loan programs to support the reforms. Even so, I would suggest a simple explanation for Trump's trade wars which isn't rooted in economics. His anti-trade and autarkic mercantilist policies hang together with his alliance with Putin. The common thread is how to weaken America's relationships with allies and major trade partners, while damaging the economies of all those caught up in these trade conflicts. That's not a conspiracy theory, as Trump has shown amply in actions and declarations that he is aligned with Russia, not only against Ukraine, but against western democracies like Canada and those in the EU.
Perhaps the U.K. will be spared until Trump has his visit to Buckingham Palace, but then Starmer and the country he leads will feel not only Musk's fury (as it has) but Trump's. Going back as far as Trump's weird candidacy for the presidency in 1987-88 after his visit to Russia, he denounced American allies, accused them of exploiting America and robbing of its prosperity and not paying their fair share. So it's not as if Trump were a recent convert to his hatreds and antipathies. See this excellent interview with a British MP:
Who says their intent is to have American manufacturing offer a decent wage? Allow child labor, take a pass on workplace safety, and keep the minimum wage low and you can claim to restore American manufacturing while continuing to impoverish most Americans.
I'm sorry Prof. Krugman, but I think you have missed the point, and you are usually a model of clarity and insight.
I'm not going to elaborate here, too laborious. But I will just say this for now. You must not regard any of Trump's policies/actions as an end. They should all be regarded as a Means to an End. And if you do that they all point to the same conclusion. I'll scream it by using all caps. TRUMP INTENDS TO OVERTHROW THE REPUBLIC AND SEIZE POWER.
In later posts I will take up some specifics and show how they lead to that one conclusion.
I will also discuss what we must do to prevent that. The threat is very real, and we should not rely on our institutions when those institutions are controlled by MAGA-philes, and where one whole political party is just fine with that.
Construct a model, then see if the facts fit the model. If so, then you are likely to have found the correct model. Then apply the model to make predictions. Then run experiments whose designs are guided by the model. If the experimental results are consistent with the model that adds confidence that the model is correct.
Example: in 2013, for no particular reason, I wondered why the two political parties were diverging, and why the PACE of divergence seemed to be accelerating. I chose a model of feedback loops, which opened up the possibility of mathematical analysis. It explained a lot of past behavior. But, importantly it led to making predictions. It predicted, for example, that the GOP would become increasingly radical at an exponential pace. It also predicted the demise of that party. And it also predicted, if not Trump, something like Trumpism
I have a time-stamped essay I wrote in 2015 laying all this out.
Now, you might think the GOP is far from dead, but in fact the party, as opposed to its adherents, is functionally dead. Just as Rome was functionally dead about 100 years before the Sack of Rome. Emperors in the West were reduced to being mayors of Rome.
Who is the chairman of the GOP? What has he or she done lately? What is the party platform?
It’s rather frustrating to read a discussion by intelligent people attempting to make sense of Trump’s belligerent ignorance. There’s no logic to Trump’s tariffs, no underlying strategy. He has this wrong-headed notion that he can restore the American economy back to the 1960s (or the 1890s). He’s convinced that tariffs will do that. He’s also convinced that all the experts are corrupt, and that he is the only one who knows the truth. He’s surrounded himself with sycophants like Navarro, Bessent and Lutnick who will just nod enthusiastically and tell him what wonderful ideas he has. None of this tariff stuff makes sense, it’s patently absurd, but given that you two are economists, you have to assess this as if it was a reasonable economic strategy. You’re searching for the pony in the pile of horseshit. Hint - there’s no pony.
It all makes sense if the idea is market manipulation for some inside trading.
There were on again off again tariffs with China during the first term. They also looked like those who had the script could trade accordingly.
Anyone who ever thinks the goal is what is good for the country (or the world) and analyzes it through that lens, hasn’t been paying attention.
Everything has the motive of enriching trumpsters, and now perhaps helping Putin by weakening his foes.
I admit one could find plausible corrupt rationalizations for Trump’s crazy tariff behavior but one also has to keep in mind that he has never been successful at any business he controlled. The only success he really ever had was playing a successful businessman on a reality TV show that he didn’t control.
Exactly. The USA is on track to be his 7th bankruptcy.
That plus it contributes to the destruction of democracy, also a primary goal of the Grifter in Chief. It would help him seize even more unchecked power - in addition to making it easier for him to purloin any loose capital.
Tariffs at a whim + exceptions at a whim = opportunity for corruption. Add in deregulation of crypto and memcoins, the perfect vehicles for payoffs, and you have a plan for enrichment at the expense of us rubes.
He's trying to convince us that the rest of the world is taking advantage of us. What he's actually doing is projecting, like always.
Not just payoffs, but global money laundering. It is no coincidence that Putin wrote using cryptocurrency to evade sanctions into legislation last summer and, literally within a few weeks, Trump announces his new family cryptocurrency scheme scam
Agree. I think there is a substantial emotional, animosity toward Trudeau and of course the whole “illegal immigration” issue—he makes it all personal to him. You cross me, you will pay for it.
I think the warm greeting by his wife (is that the correct term?) might have something to do with his attitude toward Canada.
Bingo. Prime Minister Trudeau is handsome, elegant, competent and can explain quantum physics in two languages.
And trumplethinskin is a flatulent, ignorant, Orange-hued elephantine carcass.
I think so too.
I often wonder who gets to trade options ahead of Trump’s volatility inducing tweets - and how much money they are making - seems like AI could try these kind of trades and narrow down who’s getting rich off of them because I’m sure there’s a strong correlation
The logic of this is that in some way or ways. it makes money for the Trump family. I think it's also about control. He sees how Putin has become rich an he will try to use the same pathways, only the US could potentially be so much more lucrative for him. To use a Krugman phrase" Nice supply chain you have there. It would be a shame if anything happened to it".
Just one minor nitpick - you forgot the scare quotes around "logic" :D
The maddening thought continues to occur & frustrate me too as discussions by intelligent & knowledgeable economists attempt to make sense of Trump’s ignorance. There’s very little logic or strategic anything to Trump’s “plans”………mortifying and cringeworthy……..and potentially so destructive!!!!
It's not ignorance. It's the "weave": Trump's name for conflicting decisions. It's a brilliant strategy to instill the worst fear in your adversary. Examples, for a Palestinian, permanent removal from Gaza is worse than death. For Western Europe, lack of U.S. military is worse than spending more on self-defense. For a hopeful undocumented immigrant, arriving in the U.S. to be immediately flown home to start all over again is one's worst fear.
It could be unless, the end goal is the permanent removal or further marginalization of the Palestinians. That's not something the Arab world wants and Israel would be further isolated internationally.
It could be unless, Western Europe unites into a stronger block, both economically and militarily and shuts us out as unreliable partners in anything.
I can't see how betraying and insulting our former allies can benefit us, even in the short term. I read that there were threats made to Canada that we would expel them from the Five Eyes- UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, US - intelligence sharing pact if they don't become the 51st state. (It may be bogus, but it sounds like what's coming out of the White House right now.) I started to laugh about that. Of course there are only Four Eyes now. Who in their right mind would share intelligence with US!
The weave is too erratic and destructive to be admired.
No, the “weave” was his explanation for his discombobulated thoughts about Hannibal Lecter, and other subjects on the campaign trail
It's perfectly logical...in the Twilight Zone.
Yes, that's its power. We live in the twilight zone. Under Bush II is was WMDs. During the War in Vietnam, it was the domino theory and the attack in the Gulf of Tonkin. During the run-up to the Spanish-American War , it was sabotage of the battleship Maine in Havana Harbor Cuba.
You know, "WMD" stands for "Weapons of Mass Deception".
Yes, Bush II lied, but denied it. Trump lies with full disclosure, smiling, leaving you off-balance. I prefer Trump's approach.
I don't like either of them.
Gerald Rogan - Trumps approach is insulting and leaves me with feeling sick in my stomach!
Yes. Trump is an idiot with a proven track record of bankruptcies. There are plenty of people just like him in society.
This is my read as well.
Me too
Trump thinks trade deficits are bad things, that ‘you’ are ‘subsidising’ them. Well, follow that thought process and all lending and borrowing is wrong and should just stop. Coming from someone in real estate, which depends a great deal on borrowing, the thought process seems beyond weird.
How stupid is this guy? However, there is nice stupid and nasty stupid. He is deeply, deeply nasty. He really is a creature of the dark.
Well, when Trump "borrowed" money for business, there was not necessarily any expectation of his paying it back.
It is frustrating to read intelligent people trying to parse Trump’s tariff policy, but important to get a grasp on how Trump is damaging the economic systems, as Dr. K and Ms. Loving do. The mistake people make is in assuming that Trump thinks about his tariff policies in economic terms. Trump could care less about the economy, he’s working on another level that has nothing to do with “elitist” economics. All this blustery threat and saber-rattling is about softening up his trading “foes” (not partners), so he can swoop in and cadge a “better” deal (one that makes him look good, smart, powerful). Trump is like the kidnapper who starts clipping off and sending appendages to his hostage’s loved ones. His wild gyrations, tariffs on, tariffs off, are nothing more than crazy stunts (the more unhinged the better) to keep the price up for allowing his hostage (the US economy) to live for another day. It’s the same play he’s making in Ukraine, with NATO, with DOGE and the government (only with DOGE he’s taking organs and gonna sell them on the black market). He has a strategy, it just has nothing to do with rational policy, it’s all about shaking things up, tearing things down, making people fear for their lives (or life savings in this case) and looking for opportunities to step in, make a play that he can spin to his benefit, make it look like he had it figured out all along. This is his MO, he can do no other.
They begin their search for meaning in reliance on the wrong premise. And you have followed them. If you operate from the premise that the Kremlin has given Trump a plan to follow for the destruction of America, what he is doing makes a lot more sense. Indeed, it makes perfect sense for it is a wish list of what Vladimir Putin would like to see done to the United States. The probability that this is the result of incompetence, stupidity, ignorance or coincidence is near zero. Russians study America. In high circles of government, the military, and academia, there is full understand of how one would go about causing the collapse of American government and society. They probably teach courses on this.
I think it’s a bit of an error to believe that all of this is simply the expression of Donald Trump’s personal pathology. That makes him omnipotent, which he isn’t. There are many much smarter people around him who are driving his weak-minded obsessions.
Not necessarily smarter so much as more cunning, more conniving.
Donald has surrounded himself with bellicose, reality-conflicted actors on the far right who share many of his pathologies. Of course some people in and outside of his circle, who may be described as more rational, just see this behavior as furthering their general aims.
I just finished reading the transcript and marveled at how Krugman and Lovely avoid using words like “ignorant,” “childish,” “self-destructive,” and a wide assortment of curse words that floated actively in my brain while considering their discussion.
John, you touched on something I thought as I read and listened. People, smarr people, keep being astounded at Trump's off-the-wall behaviors, saying, as Mary indicated, the experts in the field of the moment think he'll do x,y,z, because that's what a normal person would do. TRUMP IS NOT NORMAL. PLEASE QUIT TRYING TO NORMALIZE HIS BEHAVIOR!!!
The business community must be slowly starting to worry that their man in the white house is not actually their man. But it might be too late to reverse course and the US may end up like 1990s Russia, corrupt and lawless.
He’s the American Boris Yeltsin. Also, it doesn’t sound like Russia’s lawlessness has improved under Putin, so it really should be 1990s-present.
I believe Yeltsin was more scrupulous.
Exactly. These two brilliant minds can't make sense of what is going on. What is going on seems to be one of these: 1) Trump et al truly are not smart. Nobody driving the car knows what they are doing. 2) Brilliant but malignant man-behind-the-curtain Stephen Miller just wants to break it all Khmer Rouge style.
Or both, actually. Incidentally, I must take exception to your portrayal of Stephen Miller as "Brilliant". He's just a cunning opportunistic scavenger/predator. About as brilliant as a vulture circling over a soon to be cadaver in the desert.
Agreed.
John, think outside the box. The threat of tariffs is part of Trumps "weave" strategy: instill in your adversary his/her worst fear to strengthen the cards you hold.
Interesting to continue reading article after article claiming that most Americans don't understand the basics Nuts and Bolts of their Governments workings? Leaving too many listening to charlatans only too willingly sharing their self serving positions and fixes that will correct, 'all of our ills'
Thank the gods that America is doing away with Foreign Trading, Education Department, the need to vote, Congress, the various constitutional Amendments, (especially the pesky First one) lefty Universities, Free Press and not least WOKNESS!
Just one question, who's left to turn out the lights of what was once America???
I have been trying to understand the logic of why he would do things like the tariffs since it would also harm him economically. Here's the answer, I think, and Russian post-Soviet history bears it out. Jess Piper of The View From Rural Missouri notes that what seems to be a deliberate attempt to crash what was, when Trump took office, a booming U.S. economy, is a feature of the administration’s plan, not a bug. It creates “curated failure” that enables oligarchs to buy up the assets of the state and of desperate individuals for “rock-bottom prices.”
In other words, it might seem to hurt him economically - on the face of it - but in the end provides much in the way of spoils for him to purloin, plunder and pillage.
Three things :
1. Tariffs are the “ nuclear option “ not the first step in trade negotiations
2. Reciprocal tariffs- this means an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth ( and the American consumer ends up blind and deformed)
3. Tariffs may be used for National Security issues - true but our primary security issue right now is the t-Rump , Muskrat coup
t-Rump = Felon, Muscrat = Elon, t-Rump + Muscrat + fElon
You are paying attention.
I think there are some smart individuals who are waiting for this, but we don't know their names. They are in the background waiting and positioning themselves.
Trump isn't smart or disciplined. He's lucky and cunning. He has a con man's feel for the mark. Remember all of his business failures and bankruptcies. He'd have been toast without his father's money and the lucky Apprentice break.
Yes, Sharon, I envision shady characters waiting in the wings and sharpening their knives like the Big Bad Wolf for the feast to come. I suspect that one way or the other, Trump will eventually be tossed aside when he has outlived his usefulness to these jackals. Then it will be President Vance with Musk calling the shots.
I think that the seeming randomness of the tariff-not-tariff-not seesaw gives Trump the opportunity to influence loyalist sentiment with his "swoop in and save" by changing course and appearing to be strong--giving the impression that his tariff threats are gaining actual advantages for the US, even though the opposite is true.
I agree but even more significant perhaps is that making exceptions to tariffs opens the coor for corruption, as they happened in Trump 1 (Paul Krugman pointed this out in a column once). But they remain a club he can hold over the head of those who pay for exceptions if they don't toe the line.
Intentional destruction does seem to be the goal. For instance, I think that Musk will try to break Social Security but blame it all on Biden. (Trump continues to pretend to support Social Security and Medicaid, but he no longer controls Musk and when the sh*t hits the fan, he'll just say, "bear with me", as he did at his State of the Union address.) Then Musk and his techbros can come in and privatize the system, win all the contracts for running it, and claim that they are saving it.
And get the US taxpayer to bail out him and his cronies
To bring back manufacturing in many additional industries, like clothing for instance, you need capital. My brother-in-law lost his clothes sewing business in North Carolina in the 1990's due to the Chinese setting up sewing operations over there. He had a small operation with about 50 seamstresses. If, for some bizarre unforeseen reason, he thought that he could make a living doing this again, it would cost him at least $750K for equipment and then finding a space to sew in. Why would someone go into debt for a business like this.
Walmart, Target, TJ Maxx, etc. aren't going to pay more for clothing just because it was sewn in the US. The time to protect manufacturing in the US was 30 years ago. Most of this manufacturing isn't coming back.
You need more than capital - you need massive automation and in turn massive economies of scale - to some extent, the Chinese have already won that battle. I cannot express enough that it is the "value add" in any sector which drives the wealth creation that in turn "re-shores" the industry. What value does low skilled employment bring to any US manufacturing sector? Apart from physical location, what comparative advantage can there be? The artificial barrier to entry provided by tariffs are paid for by the US consumer, or as Trump has suggested lower taxes on US mfg'd goods - which again is paid for out of US tax revenue through tax avoidance - tax $$ for low skilled domestic labor. These are not plans for economic growth.
The documentary “American Factory” in 2019 explored Chinese manufacturing dominance. It concluded with scenes of Chinese CEOs planning to offshore production to Vietnam and other cheaper Asian labor countries because Chinese labor had become too expensive. They were also planning to switch to more automation for the same reason. Americans are decades out of date in discussing manufacturing and what to do with excess labor capacity. China is facing the same challenges the US faced in the late 1970s-early 1980s, which is when deindustrialization really took off here. Tariffs won’t work any better than when Europeans tried to protect their industry from cheaper American manufacturing at the end of the 19th century.
The see saw of on and off Tarifs has the stench of insider trading. Stock market down? A call to Trump as investors pounce before it goes up when he says”never mind.”
Great point. Probably an underrated element of this whole affair. Let your friends know you’re announcing big tariffs steel and aluminum in a few days so they short Alcoa and GM. Let them know you’re rescinding the tariffs a few days later so they can buy on the dip etc
Sounds about right. But it's even worse. Insider trading is simply about getting insider information. This is insider >triggering<.
If we common folk engaged in similar Marketing Manipulation, the SEC would be at our door before we could spend Dime one of our ill gotten gaines!
Will America ever truly become, 'a rule of law country'.?
We can only hope, we can only hope.
From Canada, with disgust: I’m speechless. A chain reaction is about to unfold around the globe. In the end, the sum of it all may very well result in a costly and lengthy world recession.
All this, from a man and his posse of cronies and hang-around thugs who, just days before his inauguration, launched meme coins to allow foreign governments and wealthy donors to funnel money and wealth to his family.
And yet, intellectually and financially poor—if not worse, opportunistic—citizens continue to cheer him on to this day. Some even celebrate the incompetents he has appointed to lead the institutions that will remain after he shuts down or destroys the others.
Siding with the worst former enemies of the state against allies…
I need to pause.
Meanwhile, the best the opposition could muster was to raise some sort of lollipop at the State of the Union speech—many of them likely guilty themselves of abusing the privileges of their own office to enrich their families while in power.
How dire the situation has now become.
There is no way any economist could have modeled this.
It seems that Canadians, more than Americans, more clearly see the catastrophe unfolding.
Better educational system. We have local financing, so 90% of public schools are poorly educated (like our 90% of the population is barely making ends meet).
A better distribution of wealth also means a better distribution of education. 90% of Canadians have a better understanding of the world and the US than do Americans.
Sometimes fact is stranger than fiction, and we're living through precisely such times. Hence my frequent references to Rod Serling and the Twilight Zone when discussing it.
As a Canadian, our anger comes from the multiple remarks about using economic warfare to force us to become the 51st state.
I read a NYT article buried down deep, that high US government officials and Trump told Canadian officials that they want to revisit the border agreements, lake and water agreements...things that have been established for over a hundred years. The Canadian officials were told the US goal was to wreck them economically in order to take them over.
If there are any recordings of those meetings they should be widely published, especially in Canada.
People will withstand a lot of economic hardship out of patriotism.
I thought this threat was rather prominently mentioned. See, for instance,
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/world/canada/trump-trudeau-canada-51st-state.html
It should have been up front and center. It didn't stay in the electronic page that long. It was gone within a day.
That will never happen.
There are too many things that the US (& others) need from Canada, and our economy is better organized than most countries. Better than the US in some respects, with a lot of resiliance.
Nothing will give us more resolve than unfair attacks from the US.
Evidently, Trump hasn't read history.
I read a theory somewhere, either on Noah Smith's blog or r/neoliberal, that Trump is enamored with tariffs because they provide an amazing opportunity to extort favors from companies. Since the president can grant exemptions to tariffs, it pretty much gives Trump the ability to pick winners and losers.
Not just extortion from companies, but also from other countries. Corruption on a grand scale.
Reporting here https://newrepublic.com/post/192296/trump-millions-dinner-mar-a-lago
So there's all this, much of which flew right over my non-economist head. But, maybe because I haven't run a brush through my tangles yet, it left a big red egg behind. With some trepidation I gave it a tap and out flew a Phoenix holding a banner which said, "Trump is dumb as a stump." As she flew off she started singing a cheery song: Fear Not. This too shall pass, sooner than you might imagine.'
Can't see this insanity ending soon; we're still on the upward trajectory of madness and damage to the economies of the world, and the institutions and reputation of the US. How do you think this will end? Stopping the tariff wars won't renew the trust or the agreements, the trade structures, or asset management. Not coming back anytime soon: now that NAFTA has been torn up by your government, how soon do you think Canada will enter into another one? Not in a hundred years; Canada and Canadians are looking for closer alliances with Europe. That's the future. Your chosen allies are Russia and North Korea. Good luck.
That's a really pessimistic perspective, albeit an understandable one. Trumpkopf didn't choose Russia as an ally - they chose him as an easy to exploit asset, and he's serving them well.
Little by little, those of us who weren't paying attention are finally starting to wake up to the catastrophe that is this administration. Soon enough, they will join the rest of us who are already rising and resisting. Watch for the results of our midterms. I'll go out on a limb and predict a Democratic sweep of both chambers.
It will take a long time for us to reverse and repair the damage though. I don't expect that to happen in my lifetime, but I'll be happy to see the ball get rolling before I croak.
At the rate he's going, what do you seriously think will be the state of the world, and the US , by the time the midterms roll around? I'm trying here, but I really can't see the US holding out another month or two, let alone another 20 months. And I think experts agree with me.
That's a near impossible question to answer right now. So many variables can change - even from one day to the next - there's no telling where we'll land.
I'll tell you one thing though, the resistance is growing, and I'll stick my neck out and declare that we will hold up over the next month or two, and the next 20 months, and the Dems will sweep both chambers come November 2026.
If Republicans haven't managed to eliminate many, many Democrats from the voting rolls, which is their goal.
Oh yeah, that's one of their top priorities. If you can't win an election honestly, steal it. That should be the GOP motto.
Unfortunately is is only 1/3 of the senators up for reelection, but I agree the Republicans risk to lose their majority there.
What is needed is a 2/3 majority, so Trump can be removed.
Maybe a few intelligent Republicans will help.
Intelligent Republicans? Does such a creature exist?
What we need is Republicans with integrity. There are remarkably few of them lately.
Damn few. Indeed, I could count them on one hand - with digits remaining.
Thanks. We'll need it, if we're going to pull ourselves out of the quicksand this administration has dived into.
From your mouth to G-d's ears!
I appreciated the discussion and did learn a lot, although what I know about economics still wouldn't fill a two-page pamphlet.
Agree with you about Trump; as Charlie Sykes says, "A clown with a flamethrower still has a flamethrower."
Thanks for the laugh!
Tried to understand all of this as best I can. It is so important. I am an artist in the middle of my 6th decade. Unfortunately I never had a brain that worked well in the study of economics and it is especially confused these days, but go ahead, ask me anything you want about color!
Referring to the last paragraph or so, I don’t see how DT’s tariffs benefit any of us, including those people who do understand all the ins and outs of tariffs. Just seems like he is trying to blow up every single thing and ruin our lives. Your thoughts?
I think the U.S. is about to be poorer, sicker, dumber, and meaner.
As if it wasn't poor, sick, dumb and mean enough already.
Especially the current administration.
(Trump & handlers + elected Republicans)
Not to mention unelected Republicans.
😒
That descent actually started 8 years ago under Trump I. Just look at average life expectancies. The gap between us and any Western European nation has grown every year since. (Biden slowed down the descent by supporting Medicaid and the ACA, but all that will be gone in a year and the gap will grow bigger.)
See the comments from Mike M. , Madeleine Carr, and Kathleen Regan for whom it benefits.
Just follow the money.
I wish I could. If I knew that lots of people close to Trump were buying, say, stocks or options on Japanese car makers, I might be tempted to also.
If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, eh?
Thanks!
"he is trying to blow up every single thing and ruin our lives."
Pretty good summary!
Some have already mentioned that it does allow for corruption, as the tarif laws have provision for exemption. Just like Trump got millions of dollars in settlement of phony lawsuits a little before his inaugeration, presumably for special treatment by companies which do business with the US, or may be regulated by the US.
Large revenus from tarifs may also be a way to reduce taxes for the rich & super-rich (which includes Trump & Musk).
High tarifs are a regressive form of taxation (meaning everyone pays the same percentage, rich or poor), unlike income tax, which is (normally) progressive.
Lower tarifs encourage international trade, where countries tend to produce what they are more efficient at. (Low-wage economies produce labour-intensive goods, high-wage economies favour those with more education.)
It can be likened to a stroke of bright red paint juxtaposed against a stroke of bright green.
Makes perfect sense
I think the tariffs are a distraction from the destruction of functioning government institutions. Tariffs are a distraction from a huge tax cut for the wealthy and cuts to the social safety net.
However, the tariffs, Musk and Trump may be blamed...but the Christian Nationalists waiting patiently with clean hands, the 2025 people, will be ready to step in and save us.
I’m glad you two are doing deep dives into this whiplash road we’re on. But two comments if I may. Do you really believe that there are sincere reasons for this strategy. I just see stock market manipulation and then move on to another aspect of the economy to destroy. Maybe replacing our money with useless cryptocurrency. Repubs are lying, greedy bastards, following a mob boss. Everybody is going berserk looking for logic and strategies for improving things when the goal is destruction. As things collapse, guess who will be available to take “privatization” of any government services to the max level. The unknown factor is who is waiting in the wings, oligarchs or Vlad?
Oligarchy is the answer. You nailed it.
repeating a comment,
"he is trying to blow up every single thing and ruin our lives."
Pretty good summary!
Vlad is just encouraging the chaos. He knows that Russia is much better allied with the Chinese dictatorship, but if chaos in the US lets him advance with his empire building, all the better.
The corruption associated with the chaos is a big plus for the grifters, with the grifter-in-chief (DT) & his handlers, & the associated oligarchs
All who read Paul’s columns are disqualified from determining the outcome of elections because they’re not low information voters. As intellectually stimulating as it is to follow what amount to grad school economics seminars, 2026 will turn on the price of F150s, gasoline and groceries and whether the family bread winner is bringing home any bread. Assume for a moment there will be no tariffs on vehicles finished in Canada and Mexico: tariffs on steel, aluminum, energy and agricultural produce should still be enough to turn more than a few red districts in the rust belt. Gassing USAID may turn a couple of heartland districts, and cancelling green energy projects in Appalachia a few more. Anf every GOP politician in Washington knows this.
I’d like to think you’re right, but it appears that economic changes do not affect the political attitudes of low-information voters. The price of eggs is just an excuse to exercise their profound hatred of the idea of fair treatment for black Americans and other marginalized groups that low-information voters don’t like. Last I checked, the felon-in-chief was still riding a 51% approval rating, and that’s across all demographics. It’s probably more like 70% for the white working class and 80% for white evangelicals. In other words, the stupidity and chaos perpetrated by the rethug crowd has not changed their popularity with US voters.
Well the rethug crowd has demonstrably pushed hatred of "the other" on low-information voters as well as misinformation about myriad other issues.
Interesting, but scary stuff. I hope you follow up with some more granular discussion on the impact to the consumer, nationally and regionally, if at all possible. Hard to predict, I know, when the leader of the free world believes in transgender mice.
The mice are “transgenic,” actually. I learned this at the protest against Trump’s anti-science policy actions. Paul and Mary could help us by offering tips on how best to oppose the tariffs and support protection of the complex and efficient supply chains such as the Detroit-Windsor symbiotic nexus.
A customer behind me at Whole Foods yesterday raved about saving a dollar on strawberries. I suggested that he might do well to plant his own this spring due to the Trump tariffs. He demurred (too many deer on his property). Added that he’d purchased Driscoll strawberries, assuming they were grown in the USA. I said that Driscoll probably had farms in Mexico. He checked the label and fell silent.
So sad we must learn the hard way.
Thank you for this insightful discussion. This is the type of content we need to educate ourselves to get a bigger picture around this matter. Like Paul mentioned, tariffs can be boring until they are not anymore.
There is alot of news coverage around tariffs, but they rarely explain the background and implications. One example is that the trade deficit with Canada is energy related.
The trade war tracker also looks interesting.
I worked at the World Bank for several years on trade policy, advising on bringing down tariffs and removing import quotas and licenses in countries like Morocco and Mexico (yes, Mexico) in the 1980s, when I led the design and negotiations of loan programs to support the reforms. Even so, I would suggest a simple explanation for Trump's trade wars which isn't rooted in economics. His anti-trade and autarkic mercantilist policies hang together with his alliance with Putin. The common thread is how to weaken America's relationships with allies and major trade partners, while damaging the economies of all those caught up in these trade conflicts. That's not a conspiracy theory, as Trump has shown amply in actions and declarations that he is aligned with Russia, not only against Ukraine, but against western democracies like Canada and those in the EU.
Perhaps the U.K. will be spared until Trump has his visit to Buckingham Palace, but then Starmer and the country he leads will feel not only Musk's fury (as it has) but Trump's. Going back as far as Trump's weird candidacy for the presidency in 1987-88 after his visit to Russia, he denounced American allies, accused them of exploiting America and robbing of its prosperity and not paying their fair share. So it's not as if Trump were a recent convert to his hatreds and antipathies. See this excellent interview with a British MP:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxZAvKlZ7qc
Who says their intent is to have American manufacturing offer a decent wage? Allow child labor, take a pass on workplace safety, and keep the minimum wage low and you can claim to restore American manufacturing while continuing to impoverish most Americans.
I'm sorry Prof. Krugman, but I think you have missed the point, and you are usually a model of clarity and insight.
I'm not going to elaborate here, too laborious. But I will just say this for now. You must not regard any of Trump's policies/actions as an end. They should all be regarded as a Means to an End. And if you do that they all point to the same conclusion. I'll scream it by using all caps. TRUMP INTENDS TO OVERTHROW THE REPUBLIC AND SEIZE POWER.
In later posts I will take up some specifics and show how they lead to that one conclusion.
I will also discuss what we must do to prevent that. The threat is very real, and we should not rely on our institutions when those institutions are controlled by MAGA-philes, and where one whole political party is just fine with that.
Any enlightenment along these lines that you can provide will be welcome!
Construct a model, then see if the facts fit the model. If so, then you are likely to have found the correct model. Then apply the model to make predictions. Then run experiments whose designs are guided by the model. If the experimental results are consistent with the model that adds confidence that the model is correct.
Example: in 2013, for no particular reason, I wondered why the two political parties were diverging, and why the PACE of divergence seemed to be accelerating. I chose a model of feedback loops, which opened up the possibility of mathematical analysis. It explained a lot of past behavior. But, importantly it led to making predictions. It predicted, for example, that the GOP would become increasingly radical at an exponential pace. It also predicted the demise of that party. And it also predicted, if not Trump, something like Trumpism
I have a time-stamped essay I wrote in 2015 laying all this out.
Now, you might think the GOP is far from dead, but in fact the party, as opposed to its adherents, is functionally dead. Just as Rome was functionally dead about 100 years before the Sack of Rome. Emperors in the West were reduced to being mayors of Rome.
Who is the chairman of the GOP? What has he or she done lately? What is the party platform?