As a purely economic matter Biden's 200k jobs average was largely due to immigration. We are an aging country with a low birth rate and a lot of retiring boomers. So you can have 200k jobs with a lot of immigration or 70-100k jobs with very little immigration. In the latter scenario, GDP growth will also be lower.
If you're really curious, go to Google and add up the jobs created under Republican and Democratic administration's back to Hoover. Takes 30 minutes to do. You'll find Democratic administration's average 5X Republican administration's. That's through boom and bust, wars, globalization, huge technological changes like the internet, and an insurrection. Dems really suck at telling this story.
During my career in international banking and finance/finance I had two good friends from Argentina. Every payday, while in the US, they would buy physical gold with part of their paycheck. It was their way of hedging against the falling Argentine peso.
Excellent. I am worried and depressed and fear for the present and the future. As noted though we do not listen to your columns and etc. to overcome our depression and worries. We listen to continue to be informed and I greatly thank you both for that. Protests and resistance have already had negative effects on Elon Musk and Avelo Airlines. I will continue to resist and again as noted encourage all to RESIST as much as you can and however you can. Trump’s missions are many fold, but most important to him is to maintain the chaos as a smoke screen to steal from us to line his pockets and those around him.
Also, I highly highly recommend listening to political historian Heather Cox Richardson's biweekly "Political Chats," on YouTube Tuesdays and Thursdays 6:00 pm EST. They are deeply informative and realistic, but also provide hope.
Have something to add to Greek corrupted data story. Greek economists were flying over and photographing Greek villas to count how many swimming pools they had. When homeowners found out they began to cover their swimming pools to disguise them and make them invisible from the air. This also happened during the great recession!
Paul has been hitting how devastating the science cuts will be pretty often on his daily substack postings. I think he gave a back of the envelope calculation along those lines in one of those pieces if you want to search through his stuff there
In economic terms there are “spillovers” from R&D, which is another way of saying that all of society gets benefits from all scientific research. A good example is GLP-1 drugs, which are a multi-100 billion dollar industry born out of random research on Gila monster venom or something. Because the return that private firms get on their R&D does not include those extra societal benefits, the amount that private firms invest in R&D will always be less than the societally optimal quantity.
Pooling dollars with grants to education and industry creates a partnership to allow funding for longer time lines than profit driven corporations could carry on their books, avoiding shareholder or bean counter pressure.
Isn’t the key to a response the issue of affordability? Mamdani, viewed as a localist, charts a path forward. He identified the problem accurately and proposed locally popular solutions. Dems need to learn from that.
For those who follow Krugman, the upcoming economic slowdown (and potential recession) will be one of the most well-advertised in history. For most of the rest, a shock. Feels great to be on the right side side of this one.
Over recent decades, business in general has forgotten the value of intellectual capital held in the heads of long term employees.
Now average tenure of employees GenY and younger is 3.8 years ... no time to build intellectual capital when you have to change jobs every three to four year to get a pay increase. Corporations have lost sight of employees as valued stakeholders in growth, productivity and execution.
It's never encouraging when the first analogy that comes to mind for some action by the US president is "well, the best example is Argentina..."
It will take millions more and years more basic research to cure alzheimers, parkinsons and cancer.
Firing senior scientists ensures they will never be cured.
You two are great! I'm learning so much from the comfort of my Indiana family farm.
Hey
didnt biden average 200k jobs per month? so trumps 70k is terrible.
As a purely economic matter Biden's 200k jobs average was largely due to immigration. We are an aging country with a low birth rate and a lot of retiring boomers. So you can have 200k jobs with a lot of immigration or 70-100k jobs with very little immigration. In the latter scenario, GDP growth will also be lower.
all american citizens either are immigrants or come from immigrants. I am fine with people like my grandparents getting jobs and growing the economy.
If you're really curious, go to Google and add up the jobs created under Republican and Democratic administration's back to Hoover. Takes 30 minutes to do. You'll find Democratic administration's average 5X Republican administration's. That's through boom and bust, wars, globalization, huge technological changes like the internet, and an insurrection. Dems really suck at telling this story.
Who is willing to hire, invest or expand into this cacophony of chaos?
During my career in international banking and finance/finance I had two good friends from Argentina. Every payday, while in the US, they would buy physical gold with part of their paycheck. It was their way of hedging against the falling Argentine peso.
Hey
Excellent. I am worried and depressed and fear for the present and the future. As noted though we do not listen to your columns and etc. to overcome our depression and worries. We listen to continue to be informed and I greatly thank you both for that. Protests and resistance have already had negative effects on Elon Musk and Avelo Airlines. I will continue to resist and again as noted encourage all to RESIST as much as you can and however you can. Trump’s missions are many fold, but most important to him is to maintain the chaos as a smoke screen to steal from us to line his pockets and those around him.
Also, I highly highly recommend listening to political historian Heather Cox Richardson's biweekly "Political Chats," on YouTube Tuesdays and Thursdays 6:00 pm EST. They are deeply informative and realistic, but also provide hope.
Have something to add to Greek corrupted data story. Greek economists were flying over and photographing Greek villas to count how many swimming pools they had. When homeowners found out they began to cover their swimming pools to disguise them and make them invisible from the air. This also happened during the great recession!
Jared said that Every dollar the govt invests in research yields 7-20 back into economic growth. Where do those numbers come from?
How much of a hit to US economic growth do we expect in the next 1-7 years from the 30% cut to research funding this year?
A lot! Among other bad things!
Paul has been hitting how devastating the science cuts will be pretty often on his daily substack postings. I think he gave a back of the envelope calculation along those lines in one of those pieces if you want to search through his stuff there
He directly countered "the Borg"! Resistance is far from futile. True.
I am the Borg. Paul is right!
Great clear-eyed useful conversation! Thanks! Keep up the Pressure!
This was helpful. Very direct and clear. Thanks to both Paul and Jared.
"...talently bad leadership, which arguably we have..."
😂😂😂 Actually, I'm not convinced it's arguable. 😂😂😂
Hey
???
Can Paul talk about why the Federal government is more willing than private industry to engage in basic R&D?
In economic terms there are “spillovers” from R&D, which is another way of saying that all of society gets benefits from all scientific research. A good example is GLP-1 drugs, which are a multi-100 billion dollar industry born out of random research on Gila monster venom or something. Because the return that private firms get on their R&D does not include those extra societal benefits, the amount that private firms invest in R&D will always be less than the societally optimal quantity.
Pooling dollars with grants to education and industry creates a partnership to allow funding for longer time lines than profit driven corporations could carry on their books, avoiding shareholder or bean counter pressure.
Isn’t the key to a response the issue of affordability? Mamdani, viewed as a localist, charts a path forward. He identified the problem accurately and proposed locally popular solutions. Dems need to learn from that.
For those who follow Krugman, the upcoming economic slowdown (and potential recession) will be one of the most well-advertised in history. For most of the rest, a shock. Feels great to be on the right side side of this one.
Being right does not mitigate the pain that will be felt by so many.
Tribal knowledge is much maligned but is of profound importance. Ejecting its practitioners will not be without consequence.
Over recent decades, business in general has forgotten the value of intellectual capital held in the heads of long term employees.
Now average tenure of employees GenY and younger is 3.8 years ... no time to build intellectual capital when you have to change jobs every three to four year to get a pay increase. Corporations have lost sight of employees as valued stakeholders in growth, productivity and execution.