It's funny that AfD in German, which is supported by J.D. Vance, opposes the deal.
Regarding the unconstitutional tariffs, the Supreme Court of the United States would need to uphold the Trade Court's decision to revoke them immediately. However, they did not.
RE the AfD: As expected. These ultranationalist groups wouldn’t want any barriers to THEIR industries. The fun part is watching them fight with each other as more of these unfavorable “deals” are made. This may save us from an international right wing hegemony.
A wishful thinking virtual deal. That would have been rejected the moment you’ll have articulated it. Why not american companies invested a few hundred billions in EU? And what about the services? The EU bowing to this bully asshole of convict von trump is a damn shame. Nothing good for the furure. Trump is sick. Remove him!
Believe me, plenty of MAGAs think that. The E.U. would have been better not to sign anything. Trump would have slapped on his tariffs anyway. Why give him a photo op at his golf resort? Taxpayers are paying for Trump and his entourage to stay at his pricey resort (more grifting).
My thoughts exactly! This man needs to be in charge of our economy! Or at the very least, consulting with the president who obviously has flunkies advising him.
I hate that the current regime wants to force Europe to buy more American made cars and trucks. I have spent a lot of time in Europe in the last few years and it is really refreshing to not see giant American pick ups or massive American cars on the roads. The European cars are petite, don’t take up much space, aren’t gas guzzlers. They need those vehicles not ours on their roads.
Europeans have more common sense than the average person in the US and will not buy the obnoxiously large SUVs & trucks that our car manufacturers produce. They probably believe in climate change as well!
Most Europeans will buy non-Tesla EVs also. When I was teaching at the university level I always noticed that the European students, on scholarships, etc, were always better thinkers than 3/4 of their American classmates. Trump is a completely unabashed, unrepentant, totally cynical user of the poorly educated.
Also true of Japan. Ultimately, trying to force hundreds of millions of individual consumers to buy things they don’t want seems doomed to failure. Heck, a lot of parents can’t even get their only child (or dog) to do as they are told within the confines of their home.
Nobody can "force Europe" to buy vehicles made in the United States. Vehicles are purchased by individual Europeans. If you want one of them to buy your car, make one they would like to buy.
I observed rush hour in Copenhagen from a high-rise apartment building. There were some people in cars. Lots more people on bicycles. I saw parents with three kids in a child carrier on the front of the bike. I saw a 70-something man biking with a large rolled up rug over his shoulder.
When you build bicycle infrastructure, you facilitate a bicycle culture, wherein a wide range of people feel that it is normal and practical to ride for everyday trips. You don't have to be little kid playing, or a fitness-geared adult exercising. You don't have to be particularly strong, and you don't have to be brave.
There’s one place where American autos have historically sold well: Canada.
However Trump has 25% tariffs on auto parts and even on aluminum, which the US can’t easily make itself (it’s energy intensive but Canada has lots of hydropower).
I recall a cartoon years ago with two guys crammed into a tiny pickup truck with a shotgun in the window rack. The butt of the gun sticks out the passenger's window and the barrel sticks out the driver's window. The passenger says "Jake, you're gonna have to buy either an American truck or a Japanese shotgun."
As an European, although I do not share the right-wing politics of our President von der Leyen, I would not have wanted to be in her position. How do you negotiate with a madman bully? I guess you let him believe he has won, cross your heart and hope he dies soon.
Yes! That is exactly the reasoning I believe most these leaders adopt & which Starmer will likely adhere to. Let the clown look good, thinking, claiming that he is a genius, while getting the best deal his bottomless pit of an ego will allow. His persistence in punishing our NA trading partners & former allies I suppose has the same basis.
I understand there are circumstances when Trump would be allowed, but no emergency exists. Or no one else has noticed any emergency in at least the past ten years.
Oh I completely agree with you! I was just mentioning the fact that if there is a crack he will seep poison into it at the smallest opportunity. He is a sick bloke.
At the heart of all this is the dumb American voter. They seem truly incapable of discerning truth (or something close enough) from complete balderdash baloney. And this isn't going to change. Trump spelt out his policy insanities loud and clear on the campaign trail, and yet, in the face of reality, a coalition of twits formed and voted him back in. Some of them apparently not old enough to remember the nightmare that was Trump 1.0. Frankly, there's good reason to despair of America.
He spelled out these things in his rallies. These were attended mainly by the devout converts. In the ads, however, the Republicans talked about Biden's age and the high price of eggs. Many (perhaps most) of the Republican voters had no idea they were voting for this. I spoke with a special orders rep at Lowes about a month ago who is still expecting egg prices to come down. They may actually come down if the MAHA idiots eliminate flu shots.
They 'had no idea' because, frankly, they're idiots. Unfortunately things won't change and this large tier of society will continue to be manipulated to meet the needs of those with the deepest pockets. This really is a replay of the decline of the Roman Republic.
I am German. Everyone I know thinks the EU has made too many concessions except the governing conservatives (first response I saw was right wing conservative Tilman Kuban praising the deal because 15% is so much better than 50%. In my adopted hometown of Berlin there is a saying, "Aus Scheiße Bonbons drehen", rolling shit into candy, and that is some big candy indeed). But conservative praise may be strategic. Somewhat underappreciated internationally, Germany has gone fully Trump. The chancellor makes no secret of his contempt for international law, the secretary of the interior is openly trying to destroy the Schengen System by implemeting illegal (and ineffective) border controls, we deport not only people to the Taliban (some of them were criminals, so maybe the public would agree with that) but also pull schoolchildren from classrooms and deport well integrated Jesidic families back to the country where they fled from murder and persecution. The conservative faction also sabotaged the election for the constutional court by "accusing" the social democratic candidate of wanting to legalize abortion (which apart from everything else is not even true, and yes, it is illegal in Germany). The war against everything that sound remotely liberal also includes the fight against renewable energy, and the minister for the economy, even before the trade deal, had announced plans to put additional levies on renewable energy and build at least 20 Gigawatt of capacity in gas-fired powered plants. I am not sure if I sound paranoid when I see some level of coordination here between the Trump administration and the German government. The German right wing has seen that democracy is no longer a given, but can be turned with relatively little effort into an autocratic kleptocracy, and that is what they want for themselves. Damaging the EU or their country or their own party is probably a price they are willing to pay.
Well, comparing the political situation in Germany today with that of the USA is a long stretch. In Germany democracy is still very much intact, as is the rule of law. Germany does not antagonize it's neighbors with trade wars. Germany does not blackmail it's universities and law firms. It did not now build concentration camps for unwanted citizens. And Germany understands very well that Putin can not be trusted and must be stopped in Ukraine. Actually, compared to many coutries, even some in Europe, Germany is an example of a decently governed civilization.
It may be a long stretch now, but won't stay that way given the efforts of the far right to polarise the country. And look how the SPD is still trying to cozy up to Russia (after all, a certain former SPD chancellor used his office to get a cushy job at Gazprom). But I do agree: Germany is a fabulous country within that miracle of an organisation called the EU.
But the foundations have been laid a lot longer than that. Citizens United Glass Steagall the Heritage Foundation etc... all were danger signs that everyone ignored. This MEGA A**hole is the result. Things will fall fast now.
I had no idea all this was going on over there. This is horrible to read. It seems like right wing organizations around the globe have seized on inflation & immigration issues to rile up voters enact a power grab & destroy democracy.
I disagree. Attitudes in Germany have changed and the moderate right (CDU) is correcting the situation (admittedly not always optimally, but who could?) before the extreme right (AfD) becomes too strong. Not all that long ago, people were getting tied into knots over fine particulate pollution (which particulate matter decal should come after 4 and what color should it have? Diesel truck prohibition in downtown areas!). Now, after too many street gluer activist events blocking the Autobahnen and other roadways and this successfully being instrumentalized by the far right on TikTok, I'm seeing way too many Porsche Cayennes and Dodge Ram pickups in parking lots and streets designed for Fiat 500s. The Germany of the 1980s would have a nervous breakdown if it saw what was coming. According to IPSOS, the big worry issue is immigration, not loss of democracy, not climate change. The AfD is now polling even with the CDU. The current government, which is very pro-EU, pro-West, and pro-Ukraine, had better keep addressing people's concerns, or things will spiral out of control as they have in the US. Should the AfD run things, there will be open hostility to immigrants, environmental protection will cease to be a thing, the EU would become at best an weak intention, and democracy in German would cease to exist. All windows of opportunity for turning things around after that would be closed.
Disagree. If the AfD wins the majority, they will come to power without needing a coalition. They are now polling even with the CDU. Hoping for a weak coalition that does not address people's concerns is no comfort. The democratic parties really need to figure out why the AfD is becoming more popular and try to stop it by changing what they do. That should be Priority Number One. The only party I've seen try to address the situation is the CDU, as imperfect as it is. These ridiculous clubs (they are Vereine, after all), have become so inwardly focussed, that they are going to make themselves irrelevant and destroy democracy if they keep this up.
I am presuming from your name and comments that you are German. For the other readers, who may not know the German system, half of the seats in the Bundestag are chosen by proportional representation (with a 5% threshold). The latest polls you refer to put the AfD at 24-25%, very far from a majority. Furthermore, their support is mainly in the less populated east, which makes it very hard to win most of the first-past-the-post seats. Finally, on some issues the Bundesrat (Federal Council) comes into play and only five states are eastern (right now the AfD controls zero eastern states). So the AfD only gains power if someone lets them in just as the Nazis only gained power in coalition with the Nationalists.
Times are pretty good right now. Economy is doing all right. No substantively big issues facing society right now threatening a mass upheaval of society. Immigration could definitely be improved, but that will be a Herculean task involving a number of countries, each with their own problems. But come an economic crisis? US induced maybe? Russia instigates another mass immigration wave? Not that long ago, the AfD was reliably under 10%. Not any more. The AfD is now polling 2x that of the SPD.
Note: I'm not seeing differentiation East vs. West here. Let me know if I'm overlooking something.
The AfD seems good at attracting youth, especially young men. Belief in democracy is not as strong as it should be. The root cause of this needs to be addressed. Not long ago, young people were concerned about climate change. Now, it's immigration and the economy.
It's not only much easier but also possible to fix problems before they turn into an existential crisis. They had better get their act together and turn this around comfortably before it gets worse. It is really a wonderful country.
Makes one wonder if the dismantling of E.U is not the final goal...US colonization in bright daylight. After all they DARE interfering in politics in E.U (Bannon first then Vance) and no one stopped them....
Russia and the various nationalist parties in Europe are working on that. The EU is making many laudable efforts to help the member state citizens appreciate the benefits (and there are lots of them). But I think the number one and two best efforts would be to finally get immigration under control and to keep the economy humming.
It seems Germany is under the same spell as America, that it is the liberal democratic elites who are the cause of all our problems instead of the autocratic oligarchs who impose suffering and austerity to the masses through power and money.
And the Social Democrats remain part of this coalition. I suppose their excuse is fear of the Nazis gaining more. They should should look back at their own history of tolerating Bruening "the Hunger Chancellor" whose policies only strengthened the extreme parties.
Most of the West is undergoing some version of this: a right wing that's all-in on anti-immigrant hysterics, a center that spends most of its time kneecapping anything to the left of Thatcher/Reagan, and a growing contempt for democratic mechanisms.
Remember that book The Global Trap written by two of your fellow Der Spiegel journalists a quarter of a century ago? Juxtapose that with Putin's People by Catherine Belton and House of Putin, House of Trump and you will put 2 + 2 together and realize that Putin's apparatus has been behind all of this agitation of left behind peoples in the west ever since the USSR collapsed and he maneuvered into control. Trump tries to appear sympathetic to hungry children in Gaza while standing next to Starmer, but gives Netanyahu control of the food aid. Claims to be bullying Putin with ultimatums, but watch his actions. Same with not allowing the Taiwanese leader in the country before going to pretend he is negotiating with Xi Jinpeng, who really holds all of the cards.
The Monty Python clip you chose is the PERFECT analogy for Trump’s new tariffs. It even symbolizes the impact of his entire presidency upon our country thus far. Thank you sir!
Love the telling comparison between our EU 'deal' then (under a Democratic administration in both senses of the word) and now. And I loved your observation that Trump apparently believes he 'won.' Given his progressing cognitive decline, this reminded me of what happens in some memory-care facilities: they give people who are not living in the present the illusion of agency and comfort by playing music and shows from the years of their youth, and setting out piles of washed towels for the women, at least, to fold and place into linen closets. Given that Trump appears to feel most at home in some GIlded Age (Just look at the Oval Office now!) maybe we should sit him down with a silver platter of caviar and hope it sends his cholesterol into the stroke zone.
Yeah, that's how he's kept that slim profile of his! But seriously, folks, there's evidence linking artificial sweeteners to Alzheimer's. Interesting, that.
The sugar lobby has produced "studies" linking artificial sweeteners to about everything short of syphilis. Any time you read one of these statements, find out who paid for the study and where it was run.
But recall that Germany is the largest economy in Europe, and tends to drive policy. Its auto industry is very important and already hurting. Tariffs on auto exports to the US are very costly, and hence Germany's push for the least damaging tariff "deal" for the auto industry.
The saddest outcome is that the solemn word of the United States of America is only as good as the intentions of the US President, and he isn't bound by anything. A ratified treaty doesn't even have the staying power of a commercial contract. The symmetry is broken. If a treaty requires Senate approval by a 2/3 vote, then it should take Senate action to dissolve it by a similar 2/3 vote. It would take an amendment to the constitution to fix this defect.
Yes. Here's where this is going. In a bit, he'll complain that Europe isn't buying enough American cars/trucks and gasoline. So, he'll demand that the European nations eliminate their taxes on gasoline, arguing that they'd buy more American gas guzzlers if they do this.
I have a somewhat theoretical (for lack of a better term) question- Why wouldn’t Europe just tear up these agreements in two years? Trump has set the precedent, he ignored the trade agreements because he thought “America was getting screwed“, why wouldn’t Europe do it when they actually are getting screwed? Right now, they are still very tied with the United States for defense and other spending. But we are seeing them actively extricate themselves. If I were them, I would placate Trump, knowing they can manipulate him, but giving him his “deal“ now and avoiding the worst of his potential outburst and buy themselves time. Then I would completely redo the deal and screw the United States in two years when they were clear. Perhaps even sooner. Even if that is not the current plan, wouldn’t political pressure from Europeans force the EU to do something like this as soon as they are in the position to fully retaliate? I’d love to hear what Paul or the other commentators think. This is just what I’ve been thinking this whole time. I think if Canada, Japan, the EU, and the UK band together and do something like this once they have defense for Ukraine and each other all set up, I think that makes them the predominant superpower in the world.
Just adding onto my own post, maybe I have the timing wrong Maybe they do this right before the midterm elections in a year or so from now. Undermine his whole promise of him making America stronger. But that could backfire as well. Just a thought
The 'promises' that the EU made of 600 billion investment in the US and buying 750 billion worth of energy, are fantasy: the EU doesn't spend that money, private companies do (or don't).
Still, the EU gave in to Trump's bullying, which is not a good example for the rest of the international community. Will the schoolyard bully stop, after you give him your candy?
The EU unfortunately relies on the US for defense. A big concern was the US backing out of NATO commitments in response to the EU going too hard against the tariffs. Merz said in a press conference, he didn't think the deal was good for the US either and this will show itself with time.
Use/share this spreadsheet (bit.ly/Goodtrouble) as a resource to call/email/write members of Congress, the Cabinet and news organizations. Reach out to those in your own state, and those in a committee that fits your topic. Call. Write. Email. Protest. Unrelentingly. We deserve better ❤️🩹🤍💙
Show up and invite your fellow citizens afterwards to shut off the cash....bring the tax forms for them to fill out to change witholding to ZERO (not including what's owed for SSI/Medicare payroll taxes).
I hear you. And agree, however that doesn’t mean we can’t also be loud. I don’t think we’ll see many big waves (like a major MAGA Congress member changing their opinions), however I think we can cause little ripples. I’m thinking staff members who hear the same thing over and over via voicemail, phone calls, letter after letter, email after email - maybe they’ll be a little more receptive each time they hear from us. Maybe they’ll talk more about our talking points to friends and family, maybeeee they’ll vote differently. I think we can cause ripples to push news organizations to be more honest and maybe even a bit accusatory about what’s happening. As a collective, our volume matters. And, at the end of the day, if we just annoy and overwhelm some staffers working for people hurting the average American, I’m ok with that too 🙃
Europe is jollying him along and waiting for him to leave, hoping the US comes to its senses. In the meantime, they are reorganizing their economies and defense posture to get along with less reliance on the US. They are under no obligation to "stand up" to Trump when not enough of our own Congress, courts, companies, and people are willing to do it.
Professor Krugman: i like your trade deal with the EU. can we hire you to negotiate these agreements?
It's funny that AfD in German, which is supported by J.D. Vance, opposes the deal.
Regarding the unconstitutional tariffs, the Supreme Court of the United States would need to uphold the Trade Court's decision to revoke them immediately. However, they did not.
The SCOTUS "gang of six" are Trumpkopf's sock puppets.
They've been aptly labeled by Heather Cox Richardson as "The MAGA Six."
This new damned spam bot is especially prolific. Reported - again.
I'm actually a lifelong New Yorker. However, the character from whom I take my handle is a Brit, which makes sense since Orwell was a Brit.
Trust me, I'm perfectly capable of blurting out ribbons of choice expletives. I try to avoid it when writing though.
New spam bot strikes again. Reported.
And reported a second time.
Like their Amerikanische bedfellows (GOP) the AfD can be counted on to oppose anything the other parties do. Nihilism is their program.
RE the AfD: As expected. These ultranationalist groups wouldn’t want any barriers to THEIR industries. The fun part is watching them fight with each other as more of these unfavorable “deals” are made. This may save us from an international right wing hegemony.
A wishful thinking virtual deal. That would have been rejected the moment you’ll have articulated it. Why not american companies invested a few hundred billions in EU? And what about the services? The EU bowing to this bully asshole of convict von trump is a damn shame. Nothing good for the furure. Trump is sick. Remove him!
It's brilliant. Nobody ever saw such a brilliant deal. No one had any idea that a deal that brilliant was possible.
Believe me, plenty of MAGAs think that. The E.U. would have been better not to sign anything. Trump would have slapped on his tariffs anyway. Why give him a photo op at his golf resort? Taxpayers are paying for Trump and his entourage to stay at his pricey resort (more grifting).
Free to read: from Dan Rather:
https://steady.substack.com/p/calling-out-the-con-man-in-chief
My thoughts exactly! This man needs to be in charge of our economy! Or at the very least, consulting with the president who obviously has flunkies advising him.
Congrats on placing nothing burger atop board.
Well, well, well. A brand new spam bot. Reported.
I hate that the current regime wants to force Europe to buy more American made cars and trucks. I have spent a lot of time in Europe in the last few years and it is really refreshing to not see giant American pick ups or massive American cars on the roads. The European cars are petite, don’t take up much space, aren’t gas guzzlers. They need those vehicles not ours on their roads.
I hate everything that the current regime does - or tries to do. Everything. No exceptions.
Europeans have more common sense than the average person in the US and will not buy the obnoxiously large SUVs & trucks that our car manufacturers produce. They probably believe in climate change as well!
This is an area where disparity between the world's sense and the US's nonsense is on full display.
Most Europeans will buy non-Tesla EVs also. When I was teaching at the university level I always noticed that the European students, on scholarships, etc, were always better thinkers than 3/4 of their American classmates. Trump is a completely unabashed, unrepentant, totally cynical user of the poorly educated.
The roads are too small and the petrol prices too high to allow that to happen.
And US egos too big.
Also true of Japan. Ultimately, trying to force hundreds of millions of individual consumers to buy things they don’t want seems doomed to failure. Heck, a lot of parents can’t even get their only child (or dog) to do as they are told within the confines of their home.
Nobody can "force Europe" to buy vehicles made in the United States. Vehicles are purchased by individual Europeans. If you want one of them to buy your car, make one they would like to buy.
I observed rush hour in Copenhagen from a high-rise apartment building. There were some people in cars. Lots more people on bicycles. I saw parents with three kids in a child carrier on the front of the bike. I saw a 70-something man biking with a large rolled up rug over his shoulder.
When we were in Amsterdam years ago, we saw a young woman pedaling along with a lapdog tucked under her right arm.
When you build bicycle infrastructure, you facilitate a bicycle culture, wherein a wide range of people feel that it is normal and practical to ride for everyday trips. You don't have to be little kid playing, or a fitness-geared adult exercising. You don't have to be particularly strong, and you don't have to be brave.
Amen to that!
Pretty much the same in Japan.
There’s one place where American autos have historically sold well: Canada.
However Trump has 25% tariffs on auto parts and even on aluminum, which the US can’t easily make itself (it’s energy intensive but Canada has lots of hydropower).
We buy more than we make but somehow trump thinks that is unfair.
Fuck him
Exactly!
I recall a cartoon years ago with two guys crammed into a tiny pickup truck with a shotgun in the window rack. The butt of the gun sticks out the passenger's window and the barrel sticks out the driver's window. The passenger says "Jake, you're gonna have to buy either an American truck or a Japanese shotgun."
lol 😺
Oh, I don’t know about that! I used to have a Beetle with a sunroof. . .
Not Sure of Much, excellent observation!
As an European, although I do not share the right-wing politics of our President von der Leyen, I would not have wanted to be in her position. How do you negotiate with a madman bully? I guess you let him believe he has won, cross your heart and hope he dies soon.
Yes! That is exactly the reasoning I believe most these leaders adopt & which Starmer will likely adhere to. Let the clown look good, thinking, claiming that he is a genius, while getting the best deal his bottomless pit of an ego will allow. His persistence in punishing our NA trading partners & former allies I suppose has the same basis.
Great. That made me laugh!
I wish you would have noted that the President has no legal authority to impose tariffs.
It almost goes without saying. Nearly everything - if not absolutely everything - King Krasnov does is illegal.
Yes, every single time, there should be a brief public service announcement citing the Constitution.
I thought so too but then looked up the IEEPA and relevant sections and while the role of Congress is mentioned there are enough vague limitations that he can ride on that the Turd that he is. Check it out? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/geoeconomics-center/trump-tariff-tracker/?user_id=66c4c220600ae150758e8d1d&utm_source=join1440&utm_medium=email&utm_placement=newsletter
I understand there are circumstances when Trump would be allowed, but no emergency exists. Or no one else has noticed any emergency in at least the past ten years.
Oh I completely agree with you! I was just mentioning the fact that if there is a crack he will seep poison into it at the smallest opportunity. He is a sick bloke.
I agree with you about his ability to find any cracks he might take advantage of. Or to hire lawyers to find them, more likely.
Pervert to the core. Time to remember Orwell!!
At the heart of all this is the dumb American voter. They seem truly incapable of discerning truth (or something close enough) from complete balderdash baloney. And this isn't going to change. Trump spelt out his policy insanities loud and clear on the campaign trail, and yet, in the face of reality, a coalition of twits formed and voted him back in. Some of them apparently not old enough to remember the nightmare that was Trump 1.0. Frankly, there's good reason to despair of America.
That's because they get all their "information" from Faux Newspeak and the whole reichwing propaganda ecosystem.
He spelled out these things in his rallies. These were attended mainly by the devout converts. In the ads, however, the Republicans talked about Biden's age and the high price of eggs. Many (perhaps most) of the Republican voters had no idea they were voting for this. I spoke with a special orders rep at Lowes about a month ago who is still expecting egg prices to come down. They may actually come down if the MAHA idiots eliminate flu shots.
They 'had no idea' because, frankly, they're idiots. Unfortunately things won't change and this large tier of society will continue to be manipulated to meet the needs of those with the deepest pockets. This really is a replay of the decline of the Roman Republic.
And do not forget the ominous Project 2025!
I am German. Everyone I know thinks the EU has made too many concessions except the governing conservatives (first response I saw was right wing conservative Tilman Kuban praising the deal because 15% is so much better than 50%. In my adopted hometown of Berlin there is a saying, "Aus Scheiße Bonbons drehen", rolling shit into candy, and that is some big candy indeed). But conservative praise may be strategic. Somewhat underappreciated internationally, Germany has gone fully Trump. The chancellor makes no secret of his contempt for international law, the secretary of the interior is openly trying to destroy the Schengen System by implemeting illegal (and ineffective) border controls, we deport not only people to the Taliban (some of them were criminals, so maybe the public would agree with that) but also pull schoolchildren from classrooms and deport well integrated Jesidic families back to the country where they fled from murder and persecution. The conservative faction also sabotaged the election for the constutional court by "accusing" the social democratic candidate of wanting to legalize abortion (which apart from everything else is not even true, and yes, it is illegal in Germany). The war against everything that sound remotely liberal also includes the fight against renewable energy, and the minister for the economy, even before the trade deal, had announced plans to put additional levies on renewable energy and build at least 20 Gigawatt of capacity in gas-fired powered plants. I am not sure if I sound paranoid when I see some level of coordination here between the Trump administration and the German government. The German right wing has seen that democracy is no longer a given, but can be turned with relatively little effort into an autocratic kleptocracy, and that is what they want for themselves. Damaging the EU or their country or their own party is probably a price they are willing to pay.
Well, comparing the political situation in Germany today with that of the USA is a long stretch. In Germany democracy is still very much intact, as is the rule of law. Germany does not antagonize it's neighbors with trade wars. Germany does not blackmail it's universities and law firms. It did not now build concentration camps for unwanted citizens. And Germany understands very well that Putin can not be trusted and must be stopped in Ukraine. Actually, compared to many coutries, even some in Europe, Germany is an example of a decently governed civilization.
It may be a long stretch now, but won't stay that way given the efforts of the far right to polarise the country. And look how the SPD is still trying to cozy up to Russia (after all, a certain former SPD chancellor used his office to get a cushy job at Gazprom). But I do agree: Germany is a fabulous country within that miracle of an organisation called the EU.
Very glad to hear that.
But the foundations have been laid a lot longer than that. Citizens United Glass Steagall the Heritage Foundation etc... all were danger signs that everyone ignored. This MEGA A**hole is the result. Things will fall fast now.
Viewed from the UK, that is a dispiriting summary of the political situation in Germany
Fascinating. Thanks for the detailed description of what's happening over there. I'm however sadden to hear this...
I had no idea all this was going on over there. This is horrible to read. It seems like right wing organizations around the globe have seized on inflation & immigration issues to rile up voters enact a power grab & destroy democracy.
I disagree. Attitudes in Germany have changed and the moderate right (CDU) is correcting the situation (admittedly not always optimally, but who could?) before the extreme right (AfD) becomes too strong. Not all that long ago, people were getting tied into knots over fine particulate pollution (which particulate matter decal should come after 4 and what color should it have? Diesel truck prohibition in downtown areas!). Now, after too many street gluer activist events blocking the Autobahnen and other roadways and this successfully being instrumentalized by the far right on TikTok, I'm seeing way too many Porsche Cayennes and Dodge Ram pickups in parking lots and streets designed for Fiat 500s. The Germany of the 1980s would have a nervous breakdown if it saw what was coming. According to IPSOS, the big worry issue is immigration, not loss of democracy, not climate change. The AfD is now polling even with the CDU. The current government, which is very pro-EU, pro-West, and pro-Ukraine, had better keep addressing people's concerns, or things will spiral out of control as they have in the US. Should the AfD run things, there will be open hostility to immigrants, environmental protection will cease to be a thing, the EU would become at best an weak intention, and democracy in German would cease to exist. All windows of opportunity for turning things around after that would be closed.
As long as every other party commits to the firewall, the AfD will never come to power.
Disagree. If the AfD wins the majority, they will come to power without needing a coalition. They are now polling even with the CDU. Hoping for a weak coalition that does not address people's concerns is no comfort. The democratic parties really need to figure out why the AfD is becoming more popular and try to stop it by changing what they do. That should be Priority Number One. The only party I've seen try to address the situation is the CDU, as imperfect as it is. These ridiculous clubs (they are Vereine, after all), have become so inwardly focussed, that they are going to make themselves irrelevant and destroy democracy if they keep this up.
I am presuming from your name and comments that you are German. For the other readers, who may not know the German system, half of the seats in the Bundestag are chosen by proportional representation (with a 5% threshold). The latest polls you refer to put the AfD at 24-25%, very far from a majority. Furthermore, their support is mainly in the less populated east, which makes it very hard to win most of the first-past-the-post seats. Finally, on some issues the Bundesrat (Federal Council) comes into play and only five states are eastern (right now the AfD controls zero eastern states). So the AfD only gains power if someone lets them in just as the Nazis only gained power in coalition with the Nationalists.
Times are pretty good right now. Economy is doing all right. No substantively big issues facing society right now threatening a mass upheaval of society. Immigration could definitely be improved, but that will be a Herculean task involving a number of countries, each with their own problems. But come an economic crisis? US induced maybe? Russia instigates another mass immigration wave? Not that long ago, the AfD was reliably under 10%. Not any more. The AfD is now polling 2x that of the SPD.
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend
Note: I'm not seeing differentiation East vs. West here. Let me know if I'm overlooking something.
The AfD seems good at attracting youth, especially young men. Belief in democracy is not as strong as it should be. The root cause of this needs to be addressed. Not long ago, young people were concerned about climate change. Now, it's immigration and the economy.
It's not only much easier but also possible to fix problems before they turn into an existential crisis. They had better get their act together and turn this around comfortably before it gets worse. It is really a wonderful country.
Note: I'm not German, but my wife is.
I appreciate you adding some details on the German system. Thanks!
Makes one wonder if the dismantling of E.U is not the final goal...US colonization in bright daylight. After all they DARE interfering in politics in E.U (Bannon first then Vance) and no one stopped them....
Russia and the various nationalist parties in Europe are working on that. The EU is making many laudable efforts to help the member state citizens appreciate the benefits (and there are lots of them). But I think the number one and two best efforts would be to finally get immigration under control and to keep the economy humming.
It seems Germany is under the same spell as America, that it is the liberal democratic elites who are the cause of all our problems instead of the autocratic oligarchs who impose suffering and austerity to the masses through power and money.
https://substack.com/@ellenyvonne/note/c-139971475?r=11279&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
And the Social Democrats remain part of this coalition. I suppose their excuse is fear of the Nazis gaining more. They should should look back at their own history of tolerating Bruening "the Hunger Chancellor" whose policies only strengthened the extreme parties.
Most of the West is undergoing some version of this: a right wing that's all-in on anti-immigrant hysterics, a center that spends most of its time kneecapping anything to the left of Thatcher/Reagan, and a growing contempt for democratic mechanisms.
Agree. It’s widespread.
Remember that book The Global Trap written by two of your fellow Der Spiegel journalists a quarter of a century ago? Juxtapose that with Putin's People by Catherine Belton and House of Putin, House of Trump and you will put 2 + 2 together and realize that Putin's apparatus has been behind all of this agitation of left behind peoples in the west ever since the USSR collapsed and he maneuvered into control. Trump tries to appear sympathetic to hungry children in Gaza while standing next to Starmer, but gives Netanyahu control of the food aid. Claims to be bullying Putin with ultimatums, but watch his actions. Same with not allowing the Taiwanese leader in the country before going to pretend he is negotiating with Xi Jinpeng, who really holds all of the cards.
The Monty Python clip you chose is the PERFECT analogy for Trump’s new tariffs. It even symbolizes the impact of his entire presidency upon our country thus far. Thank you sir!
Dear Prof. Krugman, I'll tell you what drump gets from Europe.
I'll do my utmost to not buy anything made in drump's country.
Nada, nothing, zero.
And I'm not alone, drump can eat all his junk meat because I am not buying. He can drink all the diets cokes because I am not buying.
And don't forget to not pay for any Substack subscriptions, as the owners and many writers are American.
I would suggest being a bit more discriminatory.
Dear Alex, you seem to be confused.
I support the work of REAL Americans. Thus I gladly contribute to Substack subscriptions.
"BIG" US corporate? Not so much. They can all go and sell their stuff to that drump fellow.
Love the telling comparison between our EU 'deal' then (under a Democratic administration in both senses of the word) and now. And I loved your observation that Trump apparently believes he 'won.' Given his progressing cognitive decline, this reminded me of what happens in some memory-care facilities: they give people who are not living in the present the illusion of agency and comfort by playing music and shows from the years of their youth, and setting out piles of washed towels for the women, at least, to fold and place into linen closets. Given that Trump appears to feel most at home in some GIlded Age (Just look at the Oval Office now!) maybe we should sit him down with a silver platter of caviar and hope it sends his cholesterol into the stroke zone.
He prefers Big Macs over caviar and Diet Coke over Dom Perignon.
Yeah, that's how he's kept that slim profile of his! But seriously, folks, there's evidence linking artificial sweeteners to Alzheimer's. Interesting, that.
The sugar lobby has produced "studies" linking artificial sweeteners to about everything short of syphilis. Any time you read one of these statements, find out who paid for the study and where it was run.
Yikes. Point taken. But meanwhile, I'm cultivating a taste for tea and honey.
Love your column! Thanks for the ongoing reality check.
Please forgive this URL insertion, but to reinforce the concept that Trump really messed up, there is this piece: https://barrygander.substack.com/p/trump-messes-up-again-his-eu-taxes
It stresses the impact on Americans, and the illegality of what he is doing.
Excellent! I particularly like the part about "every country in the EU must approve the 'deal' before it can take effect."
But recall that Germany is the largest economy in Europe, and tends to drive policy. Its auto industry is very important and already hurting. Tariffs on auto exports to the US are very costly, and hence Germany's push for the least damaging tariff "deal" for the auto industry.
The saddest outcome is that the solemn word of the United States of America is only as good as the intentions of the US President, and he isn't bound by anything. A ratified treaty doesn't even have the staying power of a commercial contract. The symmetry is broken. If a treaty requires Senate approval by a 2/3 vote, then it should take Senate action to dissolve it by a similar 2/3 vote. It would take an amendment to the constitution to fix this defect.
A ratified treaty by the current administration has exactly the staying power of a commercial contract entered into by DonnyJon.
My guess is that the EU is just glad to be moving on and finding new avenues of new trade flow like with the Mercosur bloc
HaHa. He'll be back for more.
Yes. Here's where this is going. In a bit, he'll complain that Europe isn't buying enough American cars/trucks and gasoline. So, he'll demand that the European nations eliminate their taxes on gasoline, arguing that they'd buy more American gas guzzlers if they do this.
I have a somewhat theoretical (for lack of a better term) question- Why wouldn’t Europe just tear up these agreements in two years? Trump has set the precedent, he ignored the trade agreements because he thought “America was getting screwed“, why wouldn’t Europe do it when they actually are getting screwed? Right now, they are still very tied with the United States for defense and other spending. But we are seeing them actively extricate themselves. If I were them, I would placate Trump, knowing they can manipulate him, but giving him his “deal“ now and avoiding the worst of his potential outburst and buy themselves time. Then I would completely redo the deal and screw the United States in two years when they were clear. Perhaps even sooner. Even if that is not the current plan, wouldn’t political pressure from Europeans force the EU to do something like this as soon as they are in the position to fully retaliate? I’d love to hear what Paul or the other commentators think. This is just what I’ve been thinking this whole time. I think if Canada, Japan, the EU, and the UK band together and do something like this once they have defense for Ukraine and each other all set up, I think that makes them the predominant superpower in the world.
Just adding onto my own post, maybe I have the timing wrong Maybe they do this right before the midterm elections in a year or so from now. Undermine his whole promise of him making America stronger. But that could backfire as well. Just a thought
The tariffs are applied by the US to imported goods. Even if the E.U. didn’t sign the agreement, the tariffs would go ahead.
The 'promises' that the EU made of 600 billion investment in the US and buying 750 billion worth of energy, are fantasy: the EU doesn't spend that money, private companies do (or don't).
Still, the EU gave in to Trump's bullying, which is not a good example for the rest of the international community. Will the schoolyard bully stop, after you give him your candy?
https://open.substack.com/pub/essentialeurope/p/the-deal-that-wasnt?r=5oi7od&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
The EU unfortunately relies on the US for defense. A big concern was the US backing out of NATO commitments in response to the EU going too hard against the tariffs. Merz said in a press conference, he didn't think the deal was good for the US either and this will show itself with time.
Use/share this spreadsheet (bit.ly/Goodtrouble) as a resource to call/email/write members of Congress, the Cabinet and news organizations. Reach out to those in your own state, and those in a committee that fits your topic. Call. Write. Email. Protest. Unrelentingly. We deserve better ❤️🩹🤍💙
And go to meetings of your LOCAL elected officials, county commissions, city council, township, park board, school board, university governing board.
These bodies all have public comment periods. Speak up. Go often. Bring friends.
Tell them how this will harm their constituents. Ask them to pressure state and congressional reps. Demand responsible government.
Show up and invite your fellow citizens afterwards to shut off the cash....bring the tax forms for them to fill out to change witholding to ZERO (not including what's owed for SSI/Medicare payroll taxes).
They don't give a f*ck. If we collectively shut off their cash flow, that may get their attention. No more witholding...change it asap.
I hear you. And agree, however that doesn’t mean we can’t also be loud. I don’t think we’ll see many big waves (like a major MAGA Congress member changing their opinions), however I think we can cause little ripples. I’m thinking staff members who hear the same thing over and over via voicemail, phone calls, letter after letter, email after email - maybe they’ll be a little more receptive each time they hear from us. Maybe they’ll talk more about our talking points to friends and family, maybeeee they’ll vote differently. I think we can cause ripples to push news organizations to be more honest and maybe even a bit accusatory about what’s happening. As a collective, our volume matters. And, at the end of the day, if we just annoy and overwhelm some staffers working for people hurting the average American, I’m ok with that too 🙃
Europe is jollying him along and waiting for him to leave, hoping the US comes to its senses. In the meantime, they are reorganizing their economies and defense posture to get along with less reliance on the US. They are under no obligation to "stand up" to Trump when not enough of our own Congress, courts, companies, and people are willing to do it.