Your regular reminder that Musk spent the last few months of 2024 telling everyone that he planned on crashing the economy, destroying it so he can "rebuild" it into whatever warped and ignorant image he has in his mind. (Probably some version of feudalism or chattel slavery.)
And now he has both the power and the opportunity to destroy both the economy and the hated government of the United States--which are two things all real patriots desire for America, right?
As reported by ProPublica, Musk already has huge camps of slaves from 60 countries in Myanmar. I don't know why this well-documented news has not made headlines (well, I do, but I'm still hoping for some journalistic integrity).
Not to defend the vile Nazi, but this is not him having camps of slaves. Rather his company’s technology is facilitating modern slavery for criminal purposes. SpaceX and Starlink should absolutely shut access to the satellites down from those camps.
Can Starlink do that? Shut off access to geographical areas, or even specific users? I read something last month about how Russian Army units are increasingly using smuggled Starlink dishes--or maybe just hacked Starlink access codes--to access the network, and get the same lightning fast battlefield C & C and target acquisition the Ukrainians have. And so I wondered if Elon knows about this and doesn't care; or knows about it, but can't do anything about it.
It's a block of IP addresses off a particular drifting satellite IGRP group coupled with a layer four filter. At the lowest level the possibility of filtering exists. It's money driven services.
Couldn't agree more, these are neo-reactionist policies in real time. Taking down academia ("the cathedral" in Curtis Yarvin's writings, good friends with Vance), making corporations the heads of regions and the rest of us will be slaves either in or out of a physical prison. Yarvin also writes positively of slavery and negatively of democracy, and they are utilizing his ideas (backed by Peter Thiel) to run democracy into the grave. They wanted a dictator figurehead (47) and a CEO calling the shots in the background (Musk) - and they have it
This is my antecdotal, folksy observation. COVID, high interest rates on student loans, inability to include on bancruptcy, built like mortgages to repay lender before principal, meagre interest deduction unlike mortgages, and abuses by billionaires is fueling a groundswell of folks who are going to deliberately default on their student loans.Is this a phenomenon the economy will notice? Will Musk open debtors prisons? Will laws protecting consumers completely unravel?
In Paul Krugman's Jim Chanos Interview a while ago, Chanos pointed out that the dot com boom had not created any actual growth, just redistributed/funneled wealth to new players. That (make some richer at the expense of many) seems the best possible result for "creative destruction", and maybe people naively assumed that this was what Musk had in mind (I know I did, for a while). After all, when somebody says "we have destroy to the village" a somewhat educated person is primed to fill in "in order to save it" by themself and assume a rational, for some measure of rational, end behind a cruel means. Accepting that people literally mean what they say is a lost art that urgently needs to be rediscovered (maybe most urgent by the US Democratic party members who still feel they can appease their way out of this). Schumpeter said about his idea of creative destruction that "the capitalist process in much the same way in which it destroyed the institutional framework of feudal society also undermines its own", and it looks we are finally there. The new world order isn't even fascism or feudalism, because those to some extent aimed to deliver rewards or sustenance for their goons and serfs. It's really reduced down to straightforward rape and pillage (but then, we knew that, so what do we do with this insight).
I'm a lower income indicator. Grocery prices really are hard on my budget, but I also spent on extras. My debt increased and now I'm paying higher debt payments. The fed rates raised my debt interest rates as well as the banks who use suspect credit reporting agencies ratings. I'm being trapped in this economy and curtailing spending. The interest on debt is predatory. It's a trick that credit ratings decrease when balances increase. It does seem like a racket to me.
So, I'm sensitive to spending. I have no savings and if I did it wouldn't be in a .1% interest account at the bank in which I'm losing almost 3% to inflation.
Banks once paid me interest. Now I pay them. It's a total metamorphosis.
I don't regret not having wealth. That means I'm not burdened by a mortgage or car loan, any desires to spend are wiser with less money, and I buy a lot of cheaper and healthier produce.
I'd like to thank both of you for an excellent brief education. I really did enjoy reading the transcript. As I wrote last on the subject, I'm more inclined to read a transcript than to watch a video because I can review that which I failed to comprehend until I do.
IIRC, the last time a money market fund lost money is when Lehman Bros. collapsed, and the government bailed it out even though it didn't have FDIC insurance.
Use 4 week t bills and ladder. For instance, $1,000 each week for 4 weeks reinvesting means at most you're only 5 days away from getting your money back if you need it. As of now it pays 4.22%, and that's state and local tax free. Its by far the best and safest way to earn while being fairly liquid.
I for one fully support Canada because you have been such a good neighbor living peacefully with few problems for so long until Trump appeared to aggravate you. You should remember, half of America is not with Trump. You still have support and admiration here.
I regret Mr. Trudeau stepped down. Be careful not to allow any American influenced conservatives to have positions of power. I do not seek to interfere in your politics except to prevent crimes.
We are a sovereign nation. Thanks, but you have no business interfering in our politics for any reason. If you want to stop the fentanyl crisis how about you deal with your fellow citizen's apparently insatiable demand for it. Next to nothing comes into the U.S. from Canada. How about the illegal immigrants, drugs and guns coming into Canada from the U.S.? I bet you don't know that it is far worse than the traffic the other way. But of course, you wouldn't know because you never hear about that. Back off do some research. And never think you have any right to interfere in our politics. Who do you think you are? Typical American. You really need to look in a mirror if you think you can say that kind of thing.
Aggravate! Are you serious? It is a trade war for starters and then a propaganda campaign against our sovereinty, our freedom, our borders and threat of more. Wake up! Your support and admiration is nice talk but talk is cheap. Get up, get out of your recliner and get busy. Your own nation's future is at stake. Meanwhile, we'll take care of business. Elbows up, Canada.
Please don't swing wildly at every single American. The Professor is a liberal who hates Trump. Most of his subscribers are liberals. I WISH I was a Canadian citizen. The Joke was about Trump. Trump represents a racist 45% of the US voters. We have a long long history as allies. Please do not hate your friends over what low-information white voters did last November please?
The madman is your president who you elected not once, but twice. What the hell is wrong with you? He represents you and this is who you are. Take a good long look in the mirror, because from the outside looking in, it is ugly. Until you do something other than sitting on your hands and saying 'I didn't vote for this' you own it. He is you and you are he. Shame on you all.
Trump is a symptom of deeper rot, and I don’t think we can just not elect poison. His target demographic (young white non-college-educated males) have been taking economic right hook after left for decades. Real incomes for them are something like down 50%. The Democratic Party should have been all over this but have been blinkered by pro minority focus — basically everyone except these guys — and have just written them off. “They should go to college!”, as if a society with all chiefs and no Indians has a leg to stand on. There was a time when we fought to get everyone to go to high school too. Even an associates degree has practically no economic benefit, and college is unreasonably expensive for low income Americans. It is the modern equivalent of “Qu'ils mangent de la brioche” (“Let them eat cake!”)
These men are livid, like Canadians who don’t live here have no idea what or whom to blame — non-college educated men are not economics wonks — but they do know that pretty much every time they get screwed it has a multipage contract in tiny font attached to it that “some elite” has written in order to enrich a billionaire. Part of the problem is the elite in this country sold out to predatory interests and spends most of its time figuring out ways to “benefit shareholders” rather than make something useful and benefit society. Mostly what we do is cut instead of investing, rent seeking instead of building, and it makes us all, but most definitely these undereducated builders, far poorer. They are mad, and rightfully want to burn it all down, and that is why we get politicians interested in doing the same.
Ironically, the solution will be more liberal, pro labor economic policy, but the Democrat leadership treats the idea of doing actual liberal things such as doubling the minimum wage or MFA as inconceivable, so decent leftward policies, absent since Carter, don’t ever see legislation. They spend a lot of effort squashing the economically liberal end of the party and making sure they are silent. The passably “good” conservative ideas were all enacted decades ago, and all that is left is the raving right wing lunacy, but since sensible left leaning policy can’t emerge, we can not constructively find a way out.
Canada would be in the same boat, but it doesn’t treat its people like refuse the way we do, so your house isn’t burning down.
Point taken about those left behind. Sadly, they bought the Orange Turd's B.S. about how he was going to help them out. That maniac doesn't give a damn about anyone else but himself and his first weeks in office are just making it even worse for those on the outside looking in. In fact, he just caused that group to grow even larger.
Good Lord, is it that bad? We have a Maple Maga crew up here who live and breath anger, resentment and grievance. They are probably (maybe, I often get the election prediction thing wrong) going to get their ass handed to them on a platter come the end of the election campaign. If I'm wrong I'll eat a red MAGA hat. But if I'm right, north of the 49th parallel will have seen through the angry white guy charade and will toss them to the curb. South of that border that Trump likes to consider artificial (he'd know all about artificial) it would seem that MAGA just keeps on raging. What is that all about anyway? How can anyone stay that angry all the time? I've said it elsewhere, it is a national psychosis. Does MAGA all go home after work and kick the dog?
Ian references a U.S. population cohort similar to the Canadian truck drivers who blockaded Parliament in Ottawa. To retaliate, the Trudeau government turned off the checking accounts of these truck drivers.
The Canadian truck drivers (most weren't truck drivers) were funded mostly by United States interests, thus the closing off of their accounts. Foreign interference is also now a factor in the current election campaign and I don't doubt that bad actors like the U.S. right, Russia and India will be flooding social media in an effort to turn the tide in the Maple Maga favour. Hope we're smart enough to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Wow. Yes he was( barely ) elected in... yes. BUT the sane Americans are trapped inside their loved country which is falling down around them. Yes we Canadians ARE being undeservedly abused psychologically and economically by this administration 200%. But the people are not doing this ! Keep perspective and the high view. We all must work to get trump OUT. I support all sane Americans, who know better and did not vote for this ! And I have empathy for those who did vote for him... to know that their choices are RESPONSIBLE for all THE PAIN, EVERYWHERE ! That is their's to bare. trump will fall. The question is only when the tipping point will be reached?
We can't have a snap election like Canada. The date of Tump's departure is January 20, 2028, when his term expires. He can't run again per 22nd amendment to the constitution. So, you can mark your calendar for that date for the "tipping point."
Obviously, this president has no patience for the constitution when it doesn't suit him and has some practice at sedition and autogolpe. We can assume the Republican Party will abet him in anything he wants to do. Shame and patriotism are impediments they are rapidly learning to do without. Since he will be once again open to prosecution, I think we are in for an exciting time of it.
Maybe we can relive Benigni's "La Vita é Bella" in 350 million different variations on the joy of sorrow.
Don't assume that we support this "crazy man"! We have people trying to take over our country and kill democracy, etc! WE ARE FIGHTING AGAINST PEOPLE WHO HAVE BOUGHT OUT THIS COUNTRY BECAUSE THE SUPREME COURT IN "'Citzen's United" (2010) allowed unlimited contributions to elections and those of us that are not billinonaires are fighting to reverse this process! MONEY HAS BOUGHT AND SOLD US OUT TO TRUMP AND MUSK! Money has bought many news networks, and loud mouth talk show hosts, and many internet blobs! We are fighting for the survival of our country and our democracy! DON'T TRASH ALL OF US! WE ARE FIGHTING HARD! WE WILL NOT GIVE UP!
It is insulting and defamatory yes ! ALOT like the guy to "teases, that his wife might get a beating tonight ! " Will he or won't he or has he? It is still SO off-putting, and it is a form of their constant bullying and yes a form of psychological abuse they use daily.
The KEY IS TO IGNORE THE IGNORANT...!!!!!! The mindless bully you walk away from !!! Until the day that the numbers come for him and rebalance his toxic verbiage.
See him for what and who he is and IGNORE !!!!!!!!!!!! I see that Lutnick ( he crawled out of a special kind of sewer ) seems to really ENJOY and relish abusive talk ! Such low level individuals and souls. Purely black eyed sharks - stay out of their "mind" territory. :)
Cantor-Fitzgerald (Howard Lutnick's firm) was the main target, I believe, when those Saudis from flight training schools flew into the World Trade Center on 9/11. At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, it would be interesting to know what Cantor-Fitzgerald was invested in before, during, and after that event....maybe something for Ken Klippenstein to investigate? I do know that some of it's employees were in Houston at the time and while one was sobbing about deaths of those close to him during the day reported by a co-worker, others were buying rounds of champagne and blowing celebratory money that night.
Easy for you to say. He doesn't threaten your sovereign country and good neighbour every freaking day. Put yourselves in our shoes. You wouldn't like it much. The Ugly American lives and until you do something about it, you are all complicit. We can't afford to wait for your so-called fair elections to right the wrong. Our very existence is at stake. Wake up!
Trump is pulling a fast one. It appears he is deliberately aggravating Canada and Mexico so you repel our migration if violence commences here.
Please start a discussion there to be accepting of all of us who resist Trump and his Maga Malcontents. They want to own America. I'm more than willing to leave this nation if they get real power.
Border security has been expanded due to Trump’s demands. People sneaking from the US to Canada have been found. I think they’re illegal migrants who fear being deported by Trump.
And it is hurting American companies and businesses more than they know. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum simply hurt American manufacturers. Boeing has to pay more for aluminum for their planes and I would think Canadian suppliers are switching to supplying Airbus and other manufacturers.
What country would buy an American made weapon system after tRump disabled the systems in Ukraine? Anyone want to buy and F35 fighter when they have a tRump kill switch? How about Australia's deal to buy US submarines? I imagine they are looking into switching back to French made subs.
How stupid are the American people for electing this idiocy. Well, pretty stupid.
And again, Canadians, we apologize for the idiocy and cowardice of our elected officials, citizens and business leaders. As you now know, don't ever trust us again.
Stop apologizing to us and get busy. You've got a lot of work to do. Until you fix your problems we want little to do with you. 'I didn't vote for this' is about the lamest excuse when confronted with an anti-democratic, authoritarian regime that I can think of. At the first incursion by any American with bad intent on my border I'll be out there doing whatever I can to defend my sovereignty and freedom. What are you doing?
It’s a bit of a logical trap though to support democracy and rule of law, rely on it in defense against the tyrant in chief and then turn around engage in violent revolution. “What are you doing?” Well, lawful people everywhere are waiting for the next election. That is the next substantive thing we can do.
The rest is screaming at the wind. I sincerely doubt that protest marches are going to influence Trump (or Musk). These men are quite plainly not listeners. They don’t even listen to what they say themselves. They would not say such things otherwise! The only remaining legal check on power is congress, slightly controlled by Republicans. There is no possibility that an impeachment conviction to remove him can proceed given the predominant elected sycophancy, and given current numbers we can’t even get an ineffectual impeachment vote out of the house. Given the fawning Supreme Court, I doubt we will see much support from them except when the man (frequently) wants something plainly unconstitutional such as an end to birthright citizenship. They can’t remove him, anyway. There is no further legal recourse.
Yep, and a civil war that would likely spill over the borders.
Despite having leaned Republican my entire voting career, I and everyone in my household have voted against Trump each time, and haven’t voted for a Republican for the House or Senate in that time either. (State and local races are a different kettle of fish - we need a functioning opposition party in CA.) and, in fact, my state went for Harris, and with the Electoral College, that’s the extent of my influence here.
I voted for Harris, despite thinking she is corrupt, too, just less. What am I supposed to do? I canvassed for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and look at what a waste of time that was? Protest?...worthless. Refuse to pay taxes?...will probably seize assets, with penalties + interest added. Until these dumbf@ck supporters of republicans suffer GOOD & HARD--or MORE & HARDER....we are living in times similar to 1933 Germany despite most of us in nowhere near those dire economic circumstances that an increasing majority of us are about to face shortly.
I get the frustration and appreciate the lack of apparent options. But you can't just throw in the towel. Tyrants get away with things because everyone waits for someone else to do something about it, and by then it is too late. I think your voting and canvassing for whoever you support is very important but now you've got two whole years before that next opportunity. In two years you won't recognize your country. I'd say mass protests do have an impact and let them know that this will be a fight with no rolling over. Fight like hell if you believe your country is worth fighting for. The alternative is beyond frightening.
On another note, I wanted to visit Montreal & Quebec last fall, but was denied entry after my rented RV was searched for illegal contraband and was turned down for one dui too many over 20 years old. Dejected, I asked an upstate New Yorker while eating at a local restaurant near the border there why this might be, and her response to my telling her Canada wants $1500 just to apply for future entry (no guarantee) after expunging one of those duis: "They just want you to pay for their f@cking free healthcare." Rabid Trumpers all through-out the upper midwest, not quite as bad once one hits NYS.
I apologise to you for the ugliness of the leaders of this country that think they can steal somebody's country! Everybody in my circle disagrees with this nonsence. There are many of us! Hang in there, we will eventually take over and stop this insanity!
Yeah. I live in a country that is across a narrow strait from a huge, belligerent neighbor that has been overtly threatening to invade us and calls us a province. I don’t think I’d appreciate a joke about that, even from someone who supports our sovereignty.
Perfectly understandable, but believe me, there's no way in hell the Orange Scourge will attempt any such illegal action. The vast majority of Americans would rise up and wage civil war with a fury you can't begin to imagine. We won't stand for it.
It might look that way to an outsider, but that's because you don't understand us. We're right at the breaking point, and ready to explode at any moment.
And have you not seen some of the protests at TE卐LA dealerships? Someone shot up one of them. Others just tossed some Molotov cocktails and rocks. The sea usually draws back before the tsunami comes in.
Because those of us that are fighting this insanity care about you and our allies and do not support this craziness! We are fighting hard to reclaim our country and democracy from the oligarchs that have succeded in taking over America! It is all about money! and they have lots of it and are throwing it at Trump et al!
I try to keep up to date with all the nonsense being spewed by the Mango Mussolini. Unfortunately, citizens of the United States (I don't call them Americans, because American refers to the Americas, and in this case specifically, North America) are unbelievably uniformed (see the milk tariff nonsense which is one of the Orange Turd's endless lies). Thus they find the references to the 51st state amusing. As a Canadian I can tell you, I don't find it amusing in the slightest. Frankly, you can all fuck off with that shit.
The way the United States has been behaving is appalling and the world is waking up to the fact that the U.S. is sinking to the 'failed state' category and even if that doesn't happen by some miracle, the U.S. will be for the foreseeable future a pariah state. You have squandered a position of trust and respect at the bidding of a rapist, misogynist, felon, fool and bully. Canadians detest what the U.S. is doing to our free and sovereign country and finds the some United States citizens whining that 'well I didn't vote for this' to be a cheap and pathetic response. Your concept of yourself as 'exceptional' now only applies to exceptionally disgusting. Your much vaunted 'democracy' is turning into an authoritarian nightmare and you seem to be powerless to stop this madman and his stooges. You all carry the shame and until you do something about it, you will be the enemy of Canada.
Take care of your business at home and the last thing you should be doing is insulting Canadians. You have much to be ashamed about. I have a long list, but perhaps the most disturbing one is, why did you do nothing about Sandy Hook? Shame, shame, shame. What a gutless response to the gun lobby. Your babies in school and you let that complete degenerate Alex Jones get away with his nonsense and do nothing to correct the problem. And I have a list as long as my arm about your many failures. Regardless, with this latest foolishness, none of you are worthy of our respect. And you can take the 'oh we defend you' bullshit and put it where the sun don't shine. You like the relationship because in the past is was in your self interest to have us there against the threat of the 'commies.' You were late to WW1 and you were late to WW2. We supported you in Afghanistan and gave lives and that weasel you call a vice president dares to attack our contribution. Now you are best friends with that war criminal Putin, it is convenient to criticize our military. Well, I'm an old man, but I'll go to my grave defending my country against the ugly Americans we now have to call neighbours. That is just a geographic coincidence. What isn't a coincidence is the trust you've frittered away. Enjoy your role as most despicable nation. You've earned it.
We will suffer from the tariffs that the ignorant moron you elected twice (are you fucking nuts?) is imposing but I will do everything I can to not spend one cent on anything American: travel, products, services etc. Not much of an impact on a personal level, but already I hear average Americans finally waking up to the impact this will have on their small businesses.
I didn't lose a friend; I just realized I never had one. You've revealed who you really are. We are witnessing the ultimate betrayal.
I AGREE WITH YOU AND WE ARE FIGHTING HARD TO RECLAIM DEMOCRACY AND RESPECT! THE OLIGARCHS HAVE TAKE OVER OUR COUNTRY BECAUSE OF A BILL PASSED BY THE SUPREME COURT IN 2010 CALLED CITIZENS UNITED. NOW BILLIONAIRES CAN BUY CANDIDATES! NO LIMIT ON WHAT THEY CAN CONTRUBUTE!
“I try to keep up to date with all the nonsense being spewed by the Mango Mussolini.” — Well that’s the problem right there. They’re flooding the zone. I wait for longform pieces here and from outlets like The Atlantic to summarize it for me. How does anyone keep up?
This is a deliberate action. Musk, Thiel and Trump want to remake the federal government in their image, using the Heritage Foundation, which already has more than 10,000 prospective candidates for hire, who have been fully vetted (American Taliban), and are ready to implement Trump’s agenda, and their own.
Bottom line: Trump is hiring, but only loyalists, who will do his bidding, and that of the Conservative, or White Nationalist Conservative movement.
Trump sold his soul for his second term, and owes corporations, The Heritage Foundation, The Federalist Society, and many billionaires his freedom.
Furthermore, Trump has a large investment in Gold, which hit a high of over $3,000 last week, and let’s face it, after the 2008 Great Recession, we saw the richest 1% increase their wealth threefold in a decade, with Quantitative Easing (Fed Funds Rate at 0-25% basis points). All while, the middle class and working poor saw their savings either depleted, or gone; millions lost homes, while government services were reduced, and veterans were left out in the cold.
Bottom line: the rich do much better in recessions than they do during bull markets. When there is blood on the streets, cash is king!
Additionally, since Trump is now adding Bitcoin to the Strategic Currency Reserve (Digital Asset Stockpile), he’s expecting crypto currencies to take off. Of course, this viewpoint is shortsighted, since we are the reserve currency of the world; however, since Trump could time the market, he could become the richest man in the world in no time, while the dollar America experiences hyper-inflation, and our economy enters a period of stagflation. Just some thoughts!…:)
I don't think Trump believes crypto will grow all that much. He's just setting up another con. And besides, he now has his own matched set: $KingMAGAcoin and $QueenMAGAcoin - so that he can get laundered bribes.
True, but he also owns a percentage of several exchanges, including a Chinese exchange, in which he is set to pardon the owner who committed fraud in the US. Thus, he makes money on every transaction. He has achieved vertical market status in crypto…:)
This is amazing and I would love to basically hear every word this person writes in plain English for the rest of my life. Oh my God Advanced macroeconomics but in language I can follow.
I'm pretty economics challenged it myself, but I think Professor Krugman does a pretty good job of taking a step back to translate when discussion gets into esoteric jargon.
Yes, Babbel needs to offer that as a language category or Google Translate. Maybe this is something AI can be used for, to insert common phrases for industry specific jargon.
It's an aggregate statistic of the total capital that's exchanged hands nationally. It includes the salaries of Americans working overseas, and foreigners working here.
I don’t think Trump is really interested in the “economy” save his and his family’s accumulated wealth. Even if he blows up the economy he will leave the White House as he entered: arrogant, insulated, devoid of conscience and immune from prosecution.
I volunteer. I'd like to drag him out by that red "power" tie. And watch his orange mug turn red to match the tie. And then dark blue, to match our flag.
I would GUESS that the oligarchs are out of the market for the moment in ... maybe bitcoin ?? And will jump back in AFTER the crash for the WIN. While the masses the become more and more compliant ( ie Germany financial crisis and Hitler take over ! ) and must feed their family. When Ann Applebaum interviewed a WWII expert from Germany and asked " who resisted the take over ? The answer was STUNNING - no one really !!!!!! It happened JUST AS FAST and the masses were impoverished = no resistance. Not at all obscure to see their plans .... but wealth of disproportionate amounts will be theirs like Russia and Hungary. And they are soulless, so they do not care - what so ever. People are a commodity or a means to an end($) only
Putin and Russia did the exact same thing. They broke their government to privatize to their friends who yes got very very rich. Im sure for Hungary but I think it was exactly the same and why Orban are Oligarch's now too. This is the plan ....... "trump..we will be sooooo rich"...means the very very few
It was interesting to hear the comparisons to expectations from the post-pandemic global inflationary period compared to today's tariff inflation expectations.
It made me think about how back then, after covid, we had so much pent up demand for things like travel due to people being shut in and a desire to reconnect with family for the holidays and that holiday shopping was massive in late 2021 (due in part to the expanded CTC going into effect as the extended unemployment ended).
This combination caused a very large increase in real GDP growth for Q4 annualized at 7% - huge - as well as large corporate earnings and the stock market soared.
Nominal GDP growth was so massive (over 10%) that the debt/GDP ratio actually fell.
Cool!
Yes, the CTC expansion seemed to be too big, but it just shows the impact that helping those who consume the most (especially the poor) can have on the entire economy as well as our debt/GDP ratio issue. We could grow our way out, if we focus on building the middle class instead of tax cuts at the top, and even the rich would get richer as the whole economy became larger, so win-win, even if they paid a bit more on the dollar in taxes. You also get the positive of doing the morally right thing of helping millions of children out of poverty.
I remember a survey of some business executives in a WSJ article in late 2021 where one mentioned a lack of any consumer resistance to the need to raise prices due to the supply chain bottlenecks. Consumers were still all-in.
After the CTC expansion was axed by Manchin and the GOP, and due to a steep decline in business purchases for inventories that followed, GDP went negative for the first 2 quarters in 2022 and people suspected a recession was coming.
However, employment remained strong so it seemed like it was simply a bit of a pendulum swing if that is the right term (it was simply relative).
Today, any negative news will be swinging from where?
Just down, it seems.
It seems we will need to take it at face value although I suspect that many businesses (like many of us individuals) will have spent the pre-tariff months stocking up on inventory and this may cloud Q1 data a bit, due to 'some' stockpiling. Others may be more cautious. If so, Q2 will be a nightmare number.
To say that any possible pent up demand from 2020 is in the rearview mirror is a bit of an understatement and any savings from stimulus is long gone, and we are and were, relying on continued forward momentum from an innovative stable economy with low unemployment and lots of new investment and R&D. We were doing very well before Trump came along.
Trump has thrown a wrench in the works at far too many levels for that to still be the case in my view.
Not only will we have rising prices, but even if inflation is simply moderated due to rising unemployment and a possible recession (in my view with our consumption based economy it seems inevitable), the slowdown in sales will cause layoffs and production reductions. If imports decline, what is to cause businesses to even want to invest here to fill that gap if demand is shrinking and there is so much uncertainty from this administration, as well? Likely exports will shrink, as well...and certainly tourism will take a hit due to both angry and fearful would-be travelers.
Yes, there are many moving parts to an economy, but this time, it is hard to see anything but shrinking and shrinking means less revenue and higher deficits and a further increase in the debt to GDP ratio.
If this administration then doubles down on cuts based on the rising deficit from a shrinking economy (and current behavior suggests they might be clueless enough to do so) we will be in a race to the bottom as this would continue to make things far worse.
Yes, there are always unknowns, but it is simply hard to conceptualize what that might be.
It was nice to hear from someone immersed in the data. Thanks!
It is hard to see any drivers in the future economy, other than defense spending. But even that tRump has thrown a wrench into by interfering with the operations of US supplied equipment to Ukraine. Now US manufactures will have to overcome suspicion as well as higher material costs for aluminum and steel. Anyone want to buy an F 35 fighter with a tRump kill switch? How about a submarine?
The AI boomlet is losing steam. Consumers are pulling back, and the stock market is down. Business can't invest because they don't know what will happen to their supply chains.
Sorry, but how come no one mentions the Rosevelt recession in the late 1930s when the recovering ecconomy took a huge hit as government spending/employment was cut?
WE do know how that worked out, it delayed further recovery until government spending increased for WW II.
I feel it's a good time to save my money -- and not spend carelessly. It's not just about boycotting the Trump-Musk economy, it's about saving for my family's future. No wonder "consumer confidence" is sinking. Frugality seems like a wise lifestyle now.
Don't read too much into Bessent's trading acumen because of the Soros connection.
I worked at Moore Capital (another multi billion $ hedge fund that bet on the ERM breakup). Scott wasn't deciding on trades back then, he was an order implementer, as I was at Moore.
After Bessent quit Soros he tried to trade himself and failed.
I am rather immune to labels, titles, and status, but thanks for the tip.
I grew up surrounded by all of that and sometimes it is veneer, sometimes not, so you have to dig deeper and not assume, and even then, no one is smart about everything or may be smart in different sorts of ways, or simply not, etc.
Some people are good at details but may not be able to grasp things in context and how they work or interact, or the opposite may be true. There are endless shades of grey and underneath is just somebody, a person, who is as imperfect as we all are.
Well, I mean, Scott Besson probably has a fairly good, or, he's got a good reputation. Obviously he's someone that got his chops breaking the bank of England with George Soros.
Paul Krugman
At least he’s not an idiot."
To be more precise: at a time when US relations with the G7 are at their lowest ebb since Bretton Woods, during what appears to be a takeover of the Federal Payment system by people of limited competence, while the good faith and credit of the US is being maligned BY THE GOV'T itself, we have a Treasury Sec. with NO experience in any gov't position.
One need not have liked the policies followed by Rubin, Greenspan, Geithner and Bernanke to appreciate their skill in coordinating necessary (if at times very belated) macro adjustments.
Bessent is no Geithner.
The President's Working Group on Financial Markets is in need of repair.
I'd say Bessent--like Great Depression scholar Ben Bernanke before him and before the greatest financial crisis in 2008 since 1929--is a feature--not a bug when The Cryptocurrency Plot Against America's Gold Reserves (from Prospect.org 11/26/24) goes down.
Bernanke may not have been aware that he was appointed for his position specifically for the reason that he was an expert on the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression until after the fact. I would say that Phil Gramm (initiation of repeal of Glass-Steagall) and some of the 25 other people on Time's list of people responsible for the crash of 2008 aren't so naive.
We’re long retired. A little more than half our income is social security. The rest is pension and investments. We have no debt. We’re not wealthy but we’re comfortable. We’ve definitely cut back. Same for many people we know. We were planning some upgrades on the exterior of our house. Nothing huge or extravagant but we’ll delay another year. We’re eating out much less and being more cautious about all purchases.
We hate what’s happening in the country. Full on fascism. We’re building up our cash reserves both for our own security if Trusk cuts social security and medicare, and to help our 2 very close Venezuelans, who have become family. They’re doing fine now, but it appears that T may invoke the infamous Enemy Aliens Act and identify Venezuelans. That would allow ICE to round up and deport all Venezuelans with no right to due process of law, including those with legal status and green cards, based solely on the country of their birth. Horrific and shameful.
This conversation was informative. Uncertaincy is a good honest answer. The USA has never been in a coup before. What are the economic indicators of an autocracy?
You guys make it too complicated. Our country is in the hands of people who do not like the restraints of a government. The oligarchs are international, they will control our economic activity, they will control prices, they will shut down competition, they will keep labor costs low, and profit margins high. Wages will not keep pace with costs but a poor job is better than no job. Will the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that? Will that agency be run by political appointees? How are we to pay for the consequences of ignoring climate change? How are we to cope with growing homelessness? How are we to cope with uncontrolled disease and too expensive drugs? A country is a terrible thing to waste.
Excellent interview and insights. We have been trying to understand the dynamics since December and have been having trouble connecting the dots. The interview helped a lot.
As a retiree depending in large part on how my 401K investments do, I confess I failed to understand much of the dialogue between you and Mr. Dutta. Unfortunately, the public university where I taught for 39 years didn't have a pension plan--it pushed faculty into the 401K mode of savings. In March, 2020, our savings experienced a loss from which they have not yet recovered. I imagine I merely have to wait and see, and if the market tanks again and I lose more money, I can look forward to a more impoverished old age because the future recovery will take place after my demise.
you are supposed to have access to a financial advisor. I am a broke old man, but it is law that you have material and people to show you how you should handle your money. Part of it is long term, if you have years ahead. It is wrong to get investment advice here specifically. We are discussing economics and politics (mild recession coming) not investment advice.
I am beginning to believe that financial advisers for non-economic professionals and their pension funds (primary/secondary/collegiate academics, other public workers, etc.) do not have the best interests of those whom they are advising in mind. And who has time to research this all on their own unless they're in the well-connected, carried-interest tax rate club? What if this administration takes people like Warren Buffet with huge reserves of cash sitting in t-bills for a ride when he bankrupts this nation intentionally and abolishes the FDIC, like CFPB temporarily?
Your regular reminder that Musk spent the last few months of 2024 telling everyone that he planned on crashing the economy, destroying it so he can "rebuild" it into whatever warped and ignorant image he has in his mind. (Probably some version of feudalism or chattel slavery.)
And now he has both the power and the opportunity to destroy both the economy and the hated government of the United States--which are two things all real patriots desire for America, right?
As reported by ProPublica, Musk already has huge camps of slaves from 60 countries in Myanmar. I don't know why this well-documented news has not made headlines (well, I do, but I'm still hoping for some journalistic integrity).
I found it at Wired:
https://www.wired.com/story/starlink-scam-compounds/
Not to defend the vile Nazi, but this is not him having camps of slaves. Rather his company’s technology is facilitating modern slavery for criminal purposes. SpaceX and Starlink should absolutely shut access to the satellites down from those camps.
Can Starlink do that? Shut off access to geographical areas, or even specific users? I read something last month about how Russian Army units are increasingly using smuggled Starlink dishes--or maybe just hacked Starlink access codes--to access the network, and get the same lightning fast battlefield C & C and target acquisition the Ukrainians have. And so I wondered if Elon knows about this and doesn't care; or knows about it, but can't do anything about it.
It's a block of IP addresses off a particular drifting satellite IGRP group coupled with a layer four filter. At the lowest level the possibility of filtering exists. It's money driven services.
Then, regarding Russian units using bootleg receivers? Can Elon stop it?
I don’t know how granular they can get with the shut downs but they certainly can shut down geographical areas. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66752264
Couldn't agree more, these are neo-reactionist policies in real time. Taking down academia ("the cathedral" in Curtis Yarvin's writings, good friends with Vance), making corporations the heads of regions and the rest of us will be slaves either in or out of a physical prison. Yarvin also writes positively of slavery and negatively of democracy, and they are utilizing his ideas (backed by Peter Thiel) to run democracy into the grave. They wanted a dictator figurehead (47) and a CEO calling the shots in the background (Musk) - and they have it
This is my antecdotal, folksy observation. COVID, high interest rates on student loans, inability to include on bancruptcy, built like mortgages to repay lender before principal, meagre interest deduction unlike mortgages, and abuses by billionaires is fueling a groundswell of folks who are going to deliberately default on their student loans.Is this a phenomenon the economy will notice? Will Musk open debtors prisons? Will laws protecting consumers completely unravel?
You're not taking into account the coming civil war. People are going to take to the streets by the millions.
Excellent point, most of us aren't going to stand by while a Ketamine addict and a barely literate con artist try and imprison/murder en masse.
I don't do business with trolls. Bye bye.
In Paul Krugman's Jim Chanos Interview a while ago, Chanos pointed out that the dot com boom had not created any actual growth, just redistributed/funneled wealth to new players. That (make some richer at the expense of many) seems the best possible result for "creative destruction", and maybe people naively assumed that this was what Musk had in mind (I know I did, for a while). After all, when somebody says "we have destroy to the village" a somewhat educated person is primed to fill in "in order to save it" by themself and assume a rational, for some measure of rational, end behind a cruel means. Accepting that people literally mean what they say is a lost art that urgently needs to be rediscovered (maybe most urgent by the US Democratic party members who still feel they can appease their way out of this). Schumpeter said about his idea of creative destruction that "the capitalist process in much the same way in which it destroyed the institutional framework of feudal society also undermines its own", and it looks we are finally there. The new world order isn't even fascism or feudalism, because those to some extent aimed to deliver rewards or sustenance for their goons and serfs. It's really reduced down to straightforward rape and pillage (but then, we knew that, so what do we do with this insight).
Joseph Schumpeter’s perennial winds of creative destruction could have been one of the better Macroeconomic forecast tools.
It was better than sun spot theory or
whether the AFC won the Superbowl to
precipitate a recession ( don’t laugh too hard
about the sun spots ) .
I was surprised neither spoke of inverted
yield curves ( short term interest rates higher than long term rates ) as predicting recessions .
They don’t always work- but often do.
I’ve predicted 10 out of the last 7 recessions
/ so I’m not selling my crystal ball services .
If you’ve seen one business cycle, you’ve seen
one business cycle . That’s more profound than
President Coolidge’s brilliant assertion that
“ when people are out of work , unemployment results “ . No doubt his intellectual capacity vastly exceeds Trumps - and probably all
of T - recks cabinet.
With the inmates running the asylum, what could possibly go wrong?
Trump ran on 2 things: lowering prices and keeping us out of war. What he is saying now is bait and switch.
I'm a lower income indicator. Grocery prices really are hard on my budget, but I also spent on extras. My debt increased and now I'm paying higher debt payments. The fed rates raised my debt interest rates as well as the banks who use suspect credit reporting agencies ratings. I'm being trapped in this economy and curtailing spending. The interest on debt is predatory. It's a trick that credit ratings decrease when balances increase. It does seem like a racket to me.
So, I'm sensitive to spending. I have no savings and if I did it wouldn't be in a .1% interest account at the bank in which I'm losing almost 3% to inflation.
Banks once paid me interest. Now I pay them. It's a total metamorphosis.
I don't regret not having wealth. That means I'm not burdened by a mortgage or car loan, any desires to spend are wiser with less money, and I buy a lot of cheaper and healthier produce.
I'd like to thank both of you for an excellent brief education. I really did enjoy reading the transcript. As I wrote last on the subject, I'm more inclined to read a transcript than to watch a video because I can review that which I failed to comprehend until I do.
Thanks guys. Very cool stuff you do.
Hey, if you want to save, use money market fund, which still have 3.5-4% interest rate and it's safe as bank account.
Money market funds aren't quite as safe as bank accounts. They're not insured.
A money market account at a bank is different story, as are CD's.
IIRC, the last time a money market fund lost money is when Lehman Bros. collapsed, and the government bailed it out even though it didn't have FDIC insurance.
Use 4 week t bills and ladder. For instance, $1,000 each week for 4 weeks reinvesting means at most you're only 5 days away from getting your money back if you need it. As of now it pays 4.22%, and that's state and local tax free. Its by far the best and safest way to earn while being fairly liquid.
Canadians don't appreciate any comment about being annexed by the US. Not even if you think you're being funny
I for one fully support Canada because you have been such a good neighbor living peacefully with few problems for so long until Trump appeared to aggravate you. You should remember, half of America is not with Trump. You still have support and admiration here.
I regret Mr. Trudeau stepped down. Be careful not to allow any American influenced conservatives to have positions of power. I do not seek to interfere in your politics except to prevent crimes.
We are a sovereign nation. Thanks, but you have no business interfering in our politics for any reason. If you want to stop the fentanyl crisis how about you deal with your fellow citizen's apparently insatiable demand for it. Next to nothing comes into the U.S. from Canada. How about the illegal immigrants, drugs and guns coming into Canada from the U.S.? I bet you don't know that it is far worse than the traffic the other way. But of course, you wouldn't know because you never hear about that. Back off do some research. And never think you have any right to interfere in our politics. Who do you think you are? Typical American. You really need to look in a mirror if you think you can say that kind of thing.
They are the "ugly" Americans. There are many of us that don't agree with their craziness! I am outraged by their stupidity and insanity!
More than half. A lot more.
Aggravate! Are you serious? It is a trade war for starters and then a propaganda campaign against our sovereinty, our freedom, our borders and threat of more. Wake up! Your support and admiration is nice talk but talk is cheap. Get up, get out of your recliner and get busy. Your own nation's future is at stake. Meanwhile, we'll take care of business. Elbows up, Canada.
why do people keep saying Half, its not even close to half. About 30% of the adults in the US voted for Trump, that's IT!
Please don't swing wildly at every single American. The Professor is a liberal who hates Trump. Most of his subscribers are liberals. I WISH I was a Canadian citizen. The Joke was about Trump. Trump represents a racist 45% of the US voters. We have a long long history as allies. Please do not hate your friends over what low-information white voters did last November please?
The madman is your president who you elected not once, but twice. What the hell is wrong with you? He represents you and this is who you are. Take a good long look in the mirror, because from the outside looking in, it is ugly. Until you do something other than sitting on your hands and saying 'I didn't vote for this' you own it. He is you and you are he. Shame on you all.
Trump is a symptom of deeper rot, and I don’t think we can just not elect poison. His target demographic (young white non-college-educated males) have been taking economic right hook after left for decades. Real incomes for them are something like down 50%. The Democratic Party should have been all over this but have been blinkered by pro minority focus — basically everyone except these guys — and have just written them off. “They should go to college!”, as if a society with all chiefs and no Indians has a leg to stand on. There was a time when we fought to get everyone to go to high school too. Even an associates degree has practically no economic benefit, and college is unreasonably expensive for low income Americans. It is the modern equivalent of “Qu'ils mangent de la brioche” (“Let them eat cake!”)
These men are livid, like Canadians who don’t live here have no idea what or whom to blame — non-college educated men are not economics wonks — but they do know that pretty much every time they get screwed it has a multipage contract in tiny font attached to it that “some elite” has written in order to enrich a billionaire. Part of the problem is the elite in this country sold out to predatory interests and spends most of its time figuring out ways to “benefit shareholders” rather than make something useful and benefit society. Mostly what we do is cut instead of investing, rent seeking instead of building, and it makes us all, but most definitely these undereducated builders, far poorer. They are mad, and rightfully want to burn it all down, and that is why we get politicians interested in doing the same.
Ironically, the solution will be more liberal, pro labor economic policy, but the Democrat leadership treats the idea of doing actual liberal things such as doubling the minimum wage or MFA as inconceivable, so decent leftward policies, absent since Carter, don’t ever see legislation. They spend a lot of effort squashing the economically liberal end of the party and making sure they are silent. The passably “good” conservative ideas were all enacted decades ago, and all that is left is the raving right wing lunacy, but since sensible left leaning policy can’t emerge, we can not constructively find a way out.
Canada would be in the same boat, but it doesn’t treat its people like refuse the way we do, so your house isn’t burning down.
Point taken about those left behind. Sadly, they bought the Orange Turd's B.S. about how he was going to help them out. That maniac doesn't give a damn about anyone else but himself and his first weeks in office are just making it even worse for those on the outside looking in. In fact, he just caused that group to grow even larger.
More votes for him!
Good Lord, is it that bad? We have a Maple Maga crew up here who live and breath anger, resentment and grievance. They are probably (maybe, I often get the election prediction thing wrong) going to get their ass handed to them on a platter come the end of the election campaign. If I'm wrong I'll eat a red MAGA hat. But if I'm right, north of the 49th parallel will have seen through the angry white guy charade and will toss them to the curb. South of that border that Trump likes to consider artificial (he'd know all about artificial) it would seem that MAGA just keeps on raging. What is that all about anyway? How can anyone stay that angry all the time? I've said it elsewhere, it is a national psychosis. Does MAGA all go home after work and kick the dog?
Ian references a U.S. population cohort similar to the Canadian truck drivers who blockaded Parliament in Ottawa. To retaliate, the Trudeau government turned off the checking accounts of these truck drivers.
The Canadian truck drivers (most weren't truck drivers) were funded mostly by United States interests, thus the closing off of their accounts. Foreign interference is also now a factor in the current election campaign and I don't doubt that bad actors like the U.S. right, Russia and India will be flooding social media in an effort to turn the tide in the Maple Maga favour. Hope we're smart enough to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Wow. Yes he was( barely ) elected in... yes. BUT the sane Americans are trapped inside their loved country which is falling down around them. Yes we Canadians ARE being undeservedly abused psychologically and economically by this administration 200%. But the people are not doing this ! Keep perspective and the high view. We all must work to get trump OUT. I support all sane Americans, who know better and did not vote for this ! And I have empathy for those who did vote for him... to know that their choices are RESPONSIBLE for all THE PAIN, EVERYWHERE ! That is their's to bare. trump will fall. The question is only when the tipping point will be reached?
We can't have a snap election like Canada. The date of Tump's departure is January 20, 2028, when his term expires. He can't run again per 22nd amendment to the constitution. So, you can mark your calendar for that date for the "tipping point."
Obviously, this president has no patience for the constitution when it doesn't suit him and has some practice at sedition and autogolpe. We can assume the Republican Party will abet him in anything he wants to do. Shame and patriotism are impediments they are rapidly learning to do without. Since he will be once again open to prosecution, I think we are in for an exciting time of it.
Maybe we can relive Benigni's "La Vita é Bella" in 350 million different variations on the joy of sorrow.
Don't assume that we support this "crazy man"! We have people trying to take over our country and kill democracy, etc! WE ARE FIGHTING AGAINST PEOPLE WHO HAVE BOUGHT OUT THIS COUNTRY BECAUSE THE SUPREME COURT IN "'Citzen's United" (2010) allowed unlimited contributions to elections and those of us that are not billinonaires are fighting to reverse this process! MONEY HAS BOUGHT AND SOLD US OUT TO TRUMP AND MUSK! Money has bought many news networks, and loud mouth talk show hosts, and many internet blobs! We are fighting for the survival of our country and our democracy! DON'T TRASH ALL OF US! WE ARE FIGHTING HARD! WE WILL NOT GIVE UP!
It is insulting and defamatory yes ! ALOT like the guy to "teases, that his wife might get a beating tonight ! " Will he or won't he or has he? It is still SO off-putting, and it is a form of their constant bullying and yes a form of psychological abuse they use daily.
The KEY IS TO IGNORE THE IGNORANT...!!!!!! The mindless bully you walk away from !!! Until the day that the numbers come for him and rebalance his toxic verbiage.
See him for what and who he is and IGNORE !!!!!!!!!!!! I see that Lutnick ( he crawled out of a special kind of sewer ) seems to really ENJOY and relish abusive talk ! Such low level individuals and souls. Purely black eyed sharks - stay out of their "mind" territory. :)
Cantor-Fitzgerald (Howard Lutnick's firm) was the main target, I believe, when those Saudis from flight training schools flew into the World Trade Center on 9/11. At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, it would be interesting to know what Cantor-Fitzgerald was invested in before, during, and after that event....maybe something for Ken Klippenstein to investigate? I do know that some of it's employees were in Houston at the time and while one was sobbing about deaths of those close to him during the day reported by a co-worker, others were buying rounds of champagne and blowing celebratory money that night.
Easy for you to say. He doesn't threaten your sovereign country and good neighbour every freaking day. Put yourselves in our shoes. You wouldn't like it much. The Ugly American lives and until you do something about it, you are all complicit. We can't afford to wait for your so-called fair elections to right the wrong. Our very existence is at stake. Wake up!
Believe me, Sir, we are fighting hard! The billionaires are trying to take us over and we will fight to the death! Don't give up on us yet!
Trump is pulling a fast one. It appears he is deliberately aggravating Canada and Mexico so you repel our migration if violence commences here.
Please start a discussion there to be accepting of all of us who resist Trump and his Maga Malcontents. They want to own America. I'm more than willing to leave this nation if they get real power.
Trump is trying to keep we slaves here.
Border security has been expanded due to Trump’s demands. People sneaking from the US to Canada have been found. I think they’re illegal migrants who fear being deported by Trump.
Sorry, Canadians about this stupidity.
And it is hurting American companies and businesses more than they know. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum simply hurt American manufacturers. Boeing has to pay more for aluminum for their planes and I would think Canadian suppliers are switching to supplying Airbus and other manufacturers.
What country would buy an American made weapon system after tRump disabled the systems in Ukraine? Anyone want to buy and F35 fighter when they have a tRump kill switch? How about Australia's deal to buy US submarines? I imagine they are looking into switching back to French made subs.
How stupid are the American people for electing this idiocy. Well, pretty stupid.
And again, Canadians, we apologize for the idiocy and cowardice of our elected officials, citizens and business leaders. As you now know, don't ever trust us again.
Stop apologizing to us and get busy. You've got a lot of work to do. Until you fix your problems we want little to do with you. 'I didn't vote for this' is about the lamest excuse when confronted with an anti-democratic, authoritarian regime that I can think of. At the first incursion by any American with bad intent on my border I'll be out there doing whatever I can to defend my sovereignty and freedom. What are you doing?
It’s a bit of a logical trap though to support democracy and rule of law, rely on it in defense against the tyrant in chief and then turn around engage in violent revolution. “What are you doing?” Well, lawful people everywhere are waiting for the next election. That is the next substantive thing we can do.
The rest is screaming at the wind. I sincerely doubt that protest marches are going to influence Trump (or Musk). These men are quite plainly not listeners. They don’t even listen to what they say themselves. They would not say such things otherwise! The only remaining legal check on power is congress, slightly controlled by Republicans. There is no possibility that an impeachment conviction to remove him can proceed given the predominant elected sycophancy, and given current numbers we can’t even get an ineffectual impeachment vote out of the house. Given the fawning Supreme Court, I doubt we will see much support from them except when the man (frequently) wants something plainly unconstitutional such as an end to birthright citizenship. They can’t remove him, anyway. There is no further legal recourse.
You are demanding civil war.
Yep, and a civil war that would likely spill over the borders.
Despite having leaned Republican my entire voting career, I and everyone in my household have voted against Trump each time, and haven’t voted for a Republican for the House or Senate in that time either. (State and local races are a different kettle of fish - we need a functioning opposition party in CA.) and, in fact, my state went for Harris, and with the Electoral College, that’s the extent of my influence here.
I voted for Harris, despite thinking she is corrupt, too, just less. What am I supposed to do? I canvassed for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and look at what a waste of time that was? Protest?...worthless. Refuse to pay taxes?...will probably seize assets, with penalties + interest added. Until these dumbf@ck supporters of republicans suffer GOOD & HARD--or MORE & HARDER....we are living in times similar to 1933 Germany despite most of us in nowhere near those dire economic circumstances that an increasing majority of us are about to face shortly.
I get the frustration and appreciate the lack of apparent options. But you can't just throw in the towel. Tyrants get away with things because everyone waits for someone else to do something about it, and by then it is too late. I think your voting and canvassing for whoever you support is very important but now you've got two whole years before that next opportunity. In two years you won't recognize your country. I'd say mass protests do have an impact and let them know that this will be a fight with no rolling over. Fight like hell if you believe your country is worth fighting for. The alternative is beyond frightening.
On another note, I wanted to visit Montreal & Quebec last fall, but was denied entry after my rented RV was searched for illegal contraband and was turned down for one dui too many over 20 years old. Dejected, I asked an upstate New Yorker while eating at a local restaurant near the border there why this might be, and her response to my telling her Canada wants $1500 just to apply for future entry (no guarantee) after expunging one of those duis: "They just want you to pay for their f@cking free healthcare." Rabid Trumpers all through-out the upper midwest, not quite as bad once one hits NYS.
We don't like DUIs. Those idiots kill innocent people.
Will note that the US has its own border entry rules and it also costs money if you have run afoul of them.
Comical that you think the administrative fee will make its way to provincial medicare
I apologise to you for the ugliness of the leaders of this country that think they can steal somebody's country! Everybody in my circle disagrees with this nonsence. There are many of us! Hang in there, we will eventually take over and stop this insanity!
Yeah. I live in a country that is across a narrow strait from a huge, belligerent neighbor that has been overtly threatening to invade us and calls us a province. I don’t think I’d appreciate a joke about that, even from someone who supports our sovereignty.
Perfectly understandable, but believe me, there's no way in hell the Orange Scourge will attempt any such illegal action. The vast majority of Americans would rise up and wage civil war with a fury you can't begin to imagine. We won't stand for it.
Well, apparently you're standing for quite a bit of illegal and unconstitutional activity as we speak. Why should we believe you?
It might look that way to an outsider, but that's because you don't understand us. We're right at the breaking point, and ready to explode at any moment.
And have you not seen some of the protests at TE卐LA dealerships? Someone shot up one of them. Others just tossed some Molotov cocktails and rocks. The sea usually draws back before the tsunami comes in.
Because those of us that are fighting this insanity care about you and our allies and do not support this craziness! We are fighting hard to reclaim our country and democracy from the oligarchs that have succeded in taking over America! It is all about money! and they have lots of it and are throwing it at Trump et al!
As in Sam Peckinpah's film "Straw Dogs"
Read Timothy Snyders post this w/e to this topic on Substack...and WHY TRUMP IS DOING IT !!!!!!! So INSIGHTFUL
Gaslighting and insanity. CRAZY talk is to be ignored ....for what it is. Quit the discussion. It is IMPOSSIBLE, therefore below response.
I try to keep up to date with all the nonsense being spewed by the Mango Mussolini. Unfortunately, citizens of the United States (I don't call them Americans, because American refers to the Americas, and in this case specifically, North America) are unbelievably uniformed (see the milk tariff nonsense which is one of the Orange Turd's endless lies). Thus they find the references to the 51st state amusing. As a Canadian I can tell you, I don't find it amusing in the slightest. Frankly, you can all fuck off with that shit.
The way the United States has been behaving is appalling and the world is waking up to the fact that the U.S. is sinking to the 'failed state' category and even if that doesn't happen by some miracle, the U.S. will be for the foreseeable future a pariah state. You have squandered a position of trust and respect at the bidding of a rapist, misogynist, felon, fool and bully. Canadians detest what the U.S. is doing to our free and sovereign country and finds the some United States citizens whining that 'well I didn't vote for this' to be a cheap and pathetic response. Your concept of yourself as 'exceptional' now only applies to exceptionally disgusting. Your much vaunted 'democracy' is turning into an authoritarian nightmare and you seem to be powerless to stop this madman and his stooges. You all carry the shame and until you do something about it, you will be the enemy of Canada.
Take care of your business at home and the last thing you should be doing is insulting Canadians. You have much to be ashamed about. I have a long list, but perhaps the most disturbing one is, why did you do nothing about Sandy Hook? Shame, shame, shame. What a gutless response to the gun lobby. Your babies in school and you let that complete degenerate Alex Jones get away with his nonsense and do nothing to correct the problem. And I have a list as long as my arm about your many failures. Regardless, with this latest foolishness, none of you are worthy of our respect. And you can take the 'oh we defend you' bullshit and put it where the sun don't shine. You like the relationship because in the past is was in your self interest to have us there against the threat of the 'commies.' You were late to WW1 and you were late to WW2. We supported you in Afghanistan and gave lives and that weasel you call a vice president dares to attack our contribution. Now you are best friends with that war criminal Putin, it is convenient to criticize our military. Well, I'm an old man, but I'll go to my grave defending my country against the ugly Americans we now have to call neighbours. That is just a geographic coincidence. What isn't a coincidence is the trust you've frittered away. Enjoy your role as most despicable nation. You've earned it.
We will suffer from the tariffs that the ignorant moron you elected twice (are you fucking nuts?) is imposing but I will do everything I can to not spend one cent on anything American: travel, products, services etc. Not much of an impact on a personal level, but already I hear average Americans finally waking up to the impact this will have on their small businesses.
I didn't lose a friend; I just realized I never had one. You've revealed who you really are. We are witnessing the ultimate betrayal.
I AGREE WITH YOU AND WE ARE FIGHTING HARD TO RECLAIM DEMOCRACY AND RESPECT! THE OLIGARCHS HAVE TAKE OVER OUR COUNTRY BECAUSE OF A BILL PASSED BY THE SUPREME COURT IN 2010 CALLED CITIZENS UNITED. NOW BILLIONAIRES CAN BUY CANDIDATES! NO LIMIT ON WHAT THEY CAN CONTRUBUTE!
“I try to keep up to date with all the nonsense being spewed by the Mango Mussolini.” — Well that’s the problem right there. They’re flooding the zone. I wait for longform pieces here and from outlets like The Atlantic to summarize it for me. How does anyone keep up?
This is a deliberate action. Musk, Thiel and Trump want to remake the federal government in their image, using the Heritage Foundation, which already has more than 10,000 prospective candidates for hire, who have been fully vetted (American Taliban), and are ready to implement Trump’s agenda, and their own.
Bottom line: Trump is hiring, but only loyalists, who will do his bidding, and that of the Conservative, or White Nationalist Conservative movement.
Trump sold his soul for his second term, and owes corporations, The Heritage Foundation, The Federalist Society, and many billionaires his freedom.
Furthermore, Trump has a large investment in Gold, which hit a high of over $3,000 last week, and let’s face it, after the 2008 Great Recession, we saw the richest 1% increase their wealth threefold in a decade, with Quantitative Easing (Fed Funds Rate at 0-25% basis points). All while, the middle class and working poor saw their savings either depleted, or gone; millions lost homes, while government services were reduced, and veterans were left out in the cold.
Bottom line: the rich do much better in recessions than they do during bull markets. When there is blood on the streets, cash is king!
Additionally, since Trump is now adding Bitcoin to the Strategic Currency Reserve (Digital Asset Stockpile), he’s expecting crypto currencies to take off. Of course, this viewpoint is shortsighted, since we are the reserve currency of the world; however, since Trump could time the market, he could become the richest man in the world in no time, while the dollar America experiences hyper-inflation, and our economy enters a period of stagflation. Just some thoughts!…:)
I don't think Trump believes crypto will grow all that much. He's just setting up another con. And besides, he now has his own matched set: $KingMAGAcoin and $QueenMAGAcoin - so that he can get laundered bribes.
True, but he also owns a percentage of several exchanges, including a Chinese exchange, in which he is set to pardon the owner who committed fraud in the US. Thus, he makes money on every transaction. He has achieved vertical market status in crypto…:)
I guess you gotta hand it to him, he knows how to cover all bases, doesn't he?
Like you so elegantly stated, “it’s a grift!” So it’s always best to cover every angle, or bases, when running an international con…:)
This is a coup. Can PK please just say it?
He already has. Search “autogolpe”.
This is amazing and I would love to basically hear every word this person writes in plain English for the rest of my life. Oh my God Advanced macroeconomics but in language I can follow.
I'm pretty economics challenged it myself, but I think Professor Krugman does a pretty good job of taking a step back to translate when discussion gets into esoteric jargon.
Translating english to english is journalism bread and butter. Better yet PK keeps graphs, the pictures worth a thousand words. :-) Carry on!
Yes, Babbel needs to offer that as a language category or Google Translate. Maybe this is something AI can be used for, to insert common phrases for industry specific jargon.
Yes, I found the language a bit opaque.
GDP = Gross Domestic Product.
It's an aggregate statistic of the total capital that's exchanged hands nationally. It includes the salaries of Americans working overseas, and foreigners working here.
I don’t think Trump is really interested in the “economy” save his and his family’s accumulated wealth. Even if he blows up the economy he will leave the White House as he entered: arrogant, insulated, devoid of conscience and immune from prosecution.
At least we HOPE he will actually "leave" the White House ....
Oh, he will. By force if necessary.
I can picture him being dragged out by the scrawny hairs on his orange head, kicking, snorting, and burbling incoherent sentences all the way out.
I volunteer. I'd like to drag him out by that red "power" tie. And watch his orange mug turn red to match the tie. And then dark blue, to match our flag.
I would GUESS that the oligarchs are out of the market for the moment in ... maybe bitcoin ?? And will jump back in AFTER the crash for the WIN. While the masses the become more and more compliant ( ie Germany financial crisis and Hitler take over ! ) and must feed their family. When Ann Applebaum interviewed a WWII expert from Germany and asked " who resisted the take over ? The answer was STUNNING - no one really !!!!!! It happened JUST AS FAST and the masses were impoverished = no resistance. Not at all obscure to see their plans .... but wealth of disproportionate amounts will be theirs like Russia and Hungary. And they are soulless, so they do not care - what so ever. People are a commodity or a means to an end($) only
Putin and Russia did the exact same thing. They broke their government to privatize to their friends who yes got very very rich. Im sure for Hungary but I think it was exactly the same and why Orban are Oligarch's now too. This is the plan ....... "trump..we will be sooooo rich"...means the very very few
When Trumpkopf says "we", he always means "me" or "I", as in "we're winning!". He meant >he< was winning.
It was interesting to hear the comparisons to expectations from the post-pandemic global inflationary period compared to today's tariff inflation expectations.
It made me think about how back then, after covid, we had so much pent up demand for things like travel due to people being shut in and a desire to reconnect with family for the holidays and that holiday shopping was massive in late 2021 (due in part to the expanded CTC going into effect as the extended unemployment ended).
This combination caused a very large increase in real GDP growth for Q4 annualized at 7% - huge - as well as large corporate earnings and the stock market soared.
Nominal GDP growth was so massive (over 10%) that the debt/GDP ratio actually fell.
Cool!
Yes, the CTC expansion seemed to be too big, but it just shows the impact that helping those who consume the most (especially the poor) can have on the entire economy as well as our debt/GDP ratio issue. We could grow our way out, if we focus on building the middle class instead of tax cuts at the top, and even the rich would get richer as the whole economy became larger, so win-win, even if they paid a bit more on the dollar in taxes. You also get the positive of doing the morally right thing of helping millions of children out of poverty.
I remember a survey of some business executives in a WSJ article in late 2021 where one mentioned a lack of any consumer resistance to the need to raise prices due to the supply chain bottlenecks. Consumers were still all-in.
After the CTC expansion was axed by Manchin and the GOP, and due to a steep decline in business purchases for inventories that followed, GDP went negative for the first 2 quarters in 2022 and people suspected a recession was coming.
However, employment remained strong so it seemed like it was simply a bit of a pendulum swing if that is the right term (it was simply relative).
Today, any negative news will be swinging from where?
Just down, it seems.
It seems we will need to take it at face value although I suspect that many businesses (like many of us individuals) will have spent the pre-tariff months stocking up on inventory and this may cloud Q1 data a bit, due to 'some' stockpiling. Others may be more cautious. If so, Q2 will be a nightmare number.
To say that any possible pent up demand from 2020 is in the rearview mirror is a bit of an understatement and any savings from stimulus is long gone, and we are and were, relying on continued forward momentum from an innovative stable economy with low unemployment and lots of new investment and R&D. We were doing very well before Trump came along.
Trump has thrown a wrench in the works at far too many levels for that to still be the case in my view.
Not only will we have rising prices, but even if inflation is simply moderated due to rising unemployment and a possible recession (in my view with our consumption based economy it seems inevitable), the slowdown in sales will cause layoffs and production reductions. If imports decline, what is to cause businesses to even want to invest here to fill that gap if demand is shrinking and there is so much uncertainty from this administration, as well? Likely exports will shrink, as well...and certainly tourism will take a hit due to both angry and fearful would-be travelers.
Yes, there are many moving parts to an economy, but this time, it is hard to see anything but shrinking and shrinking means less revenue and higher deficits and a further increase in the debt to GDP ratio.
If this administration then doubles down on cuts based on the rising deficit from a shrinking economy (and current behavior suggests they might be clueless enough to do so) we will be in a race to the bottom as this would continue to make things far worse.
Yes, there are always unknowns, but it is simply hard to conceptualize what that might be.
It was nice to hear from someone immersed in the data. Thanks!
It is hard to see any drivers in the future economy, other than defense spending. But even that tRump has thrown a wrench into by interfering with the operations of US supplied equipment to Ukraine. Now US manufactures will have to overcome suspicion as well as higher material costs for aluminum and steel. Anyone want to buy an F 35 fighter with a tRump kill switch? How about a submarine?
The AI boomlet is losing steam. Consumers are pulling back, and the stock market is down. Business can't invest because they don't know what will happen to their supply chains.
DoD spending will be increased for Palantir and other surveillance technologies to spy on us and keep us in line.
" Please sir, could I have some more"
Thanks, spot on. :-) Carry on!
Sorry, but how come no one mentions the Rosevelt recession in the late 1930s when the recovering ecconomy took a huge hit as government spending/employment was cut?
WE do know how that worked out, it delayed further recovery until government spending increased for WW II.
I feel it's a good time to save my money -- and not spend carelessly. It's not just about boycotting the Trump-Musk economy, it's about saving for my family's future. No wonder "consumer confidence" is sinking. Frugality seems like a wise lifestyle now.
Don't read too much into Bessent's trading acumen because of the Soros connection.
I worked at Moore Capital (another multi billion $ hedge fund that bet on the ERM breakup). Scott wasn't deciding on trades back then, he was an order implementer, as I was at Moore.
After Bessent quit Soros he tried to trade himself and failed.
I am rather immune to labels, titles, and status, but thanks for the tip.
I grew up surrounded by all of that and sometimes it is veneer, sometimes not, so you have to dig deeper and not assume, and even then, no one is smart about everything or may be smart in different sorts of ways, or simply not, etc.
Some people are good at details but may not be able to grasp things in context and how they work or interact, or the opposite may be true. There are endless shades of grey and underneath is just somebody, a person, who is as imperfect as we all are.
"Neil Dutta
Well, I mean, Scott Besson probably has a fairly good, or, he's got a good reputation. Obviously he's someone that got his chops breaking the bank of England with George Soros.
Paul Krugman
At least he’s not an idiot."
To be more precise: at a time when US relations with the G7 are at their lowest ebb since Bretton Woods, during what appears to be a takeover of the Federal Payment system by people of limited competence, while the good faith and credit of the US is being maligned BY THE GOV'T itself, we have a Treasury Sec. with NO experience in any gov't position.
One need not have liked the policies followed by Rubin, Greenspan, Geithner and Bernanke to appreciate their skill in coordinating necessary (if at times very belated) macro adjustments.
Bessent is no Geithner.
The President's Working Group on Financial Markets is in need of repair.
I'd say Bessent--like Great Depression scholar Ben Bernanke before him and before the greatest financial crisis in 2008 since 1929--is a feature--not a bug when The Cryptocurrency Plot Against America's Gold Reserves (from Prospect.org 11/26/24) goes down.
that Bernanke is/was part of some "crash the US$" cabal is risible
in the extreme
Bernanke may not have been aware that he was appointed for his position specifically for the reason that he was an expert on the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression until after the fact. I would say that Phil Gramm (initiation of repeal of Glass-Steagall) and some of the 25 other people on Time's list of people responsible for the crash of 2008 aren't so naive.
We’re long retired. A little more than half our income is social security. The rest is pension and investments. We have no debt. We’re not wealthy but we’re comfortable. We’ve definitely cut back. Same for many people we know. We were planning some upgrades on the exterior of our house. Nothing huge or extravagant but we’ll delay another year. We’re eating out much less and being more cautious about all purchases.
We hate what’s happening in the country. Full on fascism. We’re building up our cash reserves both for our own security if Trusk cuts social security and medicare, and to help our 2 very close Venezuelans, who have become family. They’re doing fine now, but it appears that T may invoke the infamous Enemy Aliens Act and identify Venezuelans. That would allow ICE to round up and deport all Venezuelans with no right to due process of law, including those with legal status and green cards, based solely on the country of their birth. Horrific and shameful.
Just now: Trump Invokes Wartime Law to Deport Venezuelan Gang Members
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/03/15/us/trump-news
Let’s hope he can tell gang members from ordinary people.
Good for you.
I love reading about people who approach finances like my wife and I do. We paid off our house years ago.
Our cars are paid for.
We have a large cash reserve.
We never carry any CC debt.
This conversation was informative. Uncertaincy is a good honest answer. The USA has never been in a coup before. What are the economic indicators of an autocracy?
LOL SO TRUE... no HARD data on that yet ....
but coming to an economic and history book in the near future
You guys make it too complicated. Our country is in the hands of people who do not like the restraints of a government. The oligarchs are international, they will control our economic activity, they will control prices, they will shut down competition, they will keep labor costs low, and profit margins high. Wages will not keep pace with costs but a poor job is better than no job. Will the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that? Will that agency be run by political appointees? How are we to pay for the consequences of ignoring climate change? How are we to cope with growing homelessness? How are we to cope with uncontrolled disease and too expensive drugs? A country is a terrible thing to waste.
Excellent interview and insights. We have been trying to understand the dynamics since December and have been having trouble connecting the dots. The interview helped a lot.
I think this is why Krugman is so popular. His nature is to anticipate what we need more info on and provide it.
As a retiree depending in large part on how my 401K investments do, I confess I failed to understand much of the dialogue between you and Mr. Dutta. Unfortunately, the public university where I taught for 39 years didn't have a pension plan--it pushed faculty into the 401K mode of savings. In March, 2020, our savings experienced a loss from which they have not yet recovered. I imagine I merely have to wait and see, and if the market tanks again and I lose more money, I can look forward to a more impoverished old age because the future recovery will take place after my demise.
you are supposed to have access to a financial advisor. I am a broke old man, but it is law that you have material and people to show you how you should handle your money. Part of it is long term, if you have years ahead. It is wrong to get investment advice here specifically. We are discussing economics and politics (mild recession coming) not investment advice.
I am beginning to believe that financial advisers for non-economic professionals and their pension funds (primary/secondary/collegiate academics, other public workers, etc.) do not have the best interests of those whom they are advising in mind. And who has time to research this all on their own unless they're in the well-connected, carried-interest tax rate club? What if this administration takes people like Warren Buffet with huge reserves of cash sitting in t-bills for a ride when he bankrupts this nation intentionally and abolishes the FDIC, like CFPB temporarily?