I have been highly concerned that the government stats on the economy will be fudged under Trump. He has no concept of truth or fact... information, like everything else, is transactional with him. If the facts would be negative, he just creates "alternative facts"
I believe there are simply too many people/institutions involved in gathering and evaluation of statistical data and a lot of history behind and well-deserved respect for official US statistics. Government may try to fudge with what is published, but insiders would leak such effort leading to its failure.
NOAA is essential for agriculture, marine transport, civil safety, the insurance industry, recreation, etc., but since the factual, scientific data that are reported by NOAA may support concerns about climate change, NOAA is being expressly dismantled by the Trump administration in accord with Project 2025.
"I believe there are simply too many people/institutions involved in gathering and evaluation of statistical data and a lot of history behind and well-deserved respect for official US statistics."
Yeah, I once hoped this about a lot of things that were "too important" for Trump/Musk to be allowed to break. I know better, now.
What you stated is one reason they "might" not pressure agencies to "fudge" numbers.
Although this may be wishful thinking on my part.
Trump is constantly saying that up is down and black is white already, and his faithful followers have no idea (or don't care) that the numbers that exist even now, show that his statements are simply not remotely close to accurate.
He simply lies and people buy into it, so no need to alter reality.
For example, when campaigning, he pointed to his first term as "the best economy ever" when his GDP growth was only barely average at best and he had nearly doubled the deficit with his tax cuts even before the pandemic hit our shores - and then we had a pandemic under his watch, as well.
I found it odd that a lot of journalists did not point this out. They did not counter him with actual proven numbers.
The same was true of Bush, where deficits skyrocketed from tax cuts and we did not experience high growth.
This is because tax cuts at the top do not work and there is no reason why they should since growth related expenses are not taxed in the first place (they are removed before arriving at net profit or income which is then taxed).
This is why no GOP president, since Reagan, has been able to replicate the growth we saw under Reagan. It is because the tax cuts under Reagan were not the main cause of the growth, but instead declining interest rates were, as the Federal Reserve eased after they got inflation down. It was also a unique situation where things had been suppressed for years due to the high cost of borrowing and suddenly the flood gates began to open, but the myth that tax cuts at the top were the cause is just that, a myth, which no one since has been able to replicate.
This means there was mostly a correlational effect under Reagan from other events, rather than cause and effect. Thus, the hypothesis has not been proven by following GOP administrations.
So, what does grow the economy? Those at the bottom and middle with enough to spend and consumer confidence grow the economy through demand, and this demand inspires businesses to expand and grow.
What Trump is doing is the complete opposite of what can grow an economy.
What he is doing will cause GDP to fall and deficits to grow due to a loss of tax revenue (from both tax cuts as well as a smaller economy). This combination will INCREASE the debt to GDP ratio.
In contrast, when the expanded child tax credit and final stimulus went out under Biden, growth was so massive in the 4th quarter as many at the bottom had enough to spend for the first time in perhaps decades as child poverty was cut in 1/2 and because consumer confidence was restored after vaccines went out that the debt/GDP ratio actually FELL!
This was because GDP, the denominator of the ratio, was much larger than spending increases. This is also what happened post WWII and this caused our debt/GDP ratio to fall.
We never actually paid off that old WWII debt!
Instead nominal GDP, the denominator, simply massively outgrew the dollar value of that old debt and that old debt became small by comparison.
An example would be a home your grandparents may have purchased. When they bought it, the mortgage to home value was probably close to 100% (analogous to debt/GDP). However, after decades, even if they only paid the interest on the loan, the increase in the home value (the denominator of the ratio analogous to GDP grew). So decades later, their mortgage to home ratio would shrink as the value to the home rose. GDP is also like a house in that we get revenue from all the economic activity, with taxes being kind of like rent. The larger the GDP the more revenue we have to pay the bills and this can reduce the deficit. If GDP shrinks, revenue falls with it. After the 2008 Financial Crisis, about 1/2 the increase in the deficit was from lost revenue plus emergency tax cuts.
The GOP have everything backwards, so is it any wonder that deficits increase on their watch and fall under Dem administrations?
We simply need to grow GDP and control the deficit - and the GOP are taking us in the opposite direction with this budget and with Trump's tariffs.
Í think your premises are correct but your conclusion is not.
Yes, he has easily abided facts that are inconvenient by denying them. But, he has also used the power of the office to control every source of information whether by firing civil servants, changing the remit of agencies, removing counter-evidence from agency websites and simply ceasing collection of data that offends him.
The control of the information ecosystem through his presidential or litigious power is his favorite tactic. For example:
-Suing 60 Minutes and using the FTC power to disallow their acquisition as a cudgel.
-Removing all climate change information from the EPA website.
-Demanding no funding of NPR or PBS by the Corp. Public Broadcasting.
-Creating a threatening enough environment for Amazon that Bezos has altered the editorial perspective of the Wapo.
-Culling the workforce at NOAA, FEMA and so forth to reduce the amount of data there is about climate change and climate risk (this has the side benefit of reducing visibility of hard-hit disasters).
-Discontinuing Radio Marti and VOA.
In essence, his entire MO is to use any and all tools to control both what information there is at all, and how and whether it is disseminated.
He seems to be in the early stages of trying to remove facts and those in charge of publishing them that counter his narrative, so you are certainly correct.
I personally think others are in charge of doing a lot of this because I rather doubt he even pays much attention to published numbers that are contrary to his ego. He will just blame his predecessor.
Yes, there is good reason to believe this axing and firing may eventually extend to these agencies who are responsible for collecting and publishing this data like BEA and BLS. He even calls for the removal of judges who do not agree with him.
Sorry for my French here but I can only say it one way.. when he sees negative shit thrown his way he’s the first FLY on it. If it’s one thing trump is probably personally involved in is his control and SUPPRESSION of the narrative!
True, but this is more often for what people say or do that may get media attention that he latches onto, especially if they are trying to control him.
Mere objective numbers he seems to pay far less attention to and simply dismisses them since he simply inserts his own reality or perception and his base do not believe in objective stats anyway.
You are correct however, that this is likely just wishful thinking on my part, because others surrounding him in the past have said (Bill Barr) that the winners in history write the history books, implying that the Trump era might be defined some day by intentional distortion (at least that is how I interpreted it) and his team may want to go as far as possible to distort reality, especially to suppress dissent if they move towards an authoritarian regime.
Lying has historically been sufficient for Trump to get what he wants. The problem is they are not at all worried about the midterms, because many of their current policies are quite unpopular with tariffs being one of the least well liked. A second quarter drop in GDP would be a technical recession- Trump can call it “growing pains” or “Biden’s Bad Economy” but the business press with call it the Trump Trade War Recession- and because that is unacceptable next quarters reported GDP will be at least slightly positive.
Well, 2 negative quarters is one criteria for a recession, but it takes more than that. One has to also see things like unemployment rise, etc.
Biden saw 2 negative quarters after Manchin and the GOP axed the expansion of the child tax credit and the stimulus ended in the middle of an Omicron covid surge in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. However this was, according to bea, just from the sudden stop of the stimulus and the covid surge as well as businesses not restocking inventory and so unemployment did not increase and the economy simply picked back up from the slump.
A loss of employment opportunities would show that any negative GDP growth is not just statistical noise or temporary.
However, I agree that we will likely get a real recession under Trump who seems to be loosing what was left of his mind. Kicking foreign students out of Harvard? Harassing foreign tourists in Hawaii? Arresting PhD students for disagreeing with the way the Gaza war is going?
I mean, you do not have to be antisemitic to not like the level of destruction in Gaza, etc. Even the Israeli people are protesting Netanyahu. If Israelis who protest him in Israel come here to study, will they get their student visa's revoked and be called antisemitic even if they are Jewish?
I get the feeling this may actually happen because that is how nonsensical this all is.
This all seems insane to me, and tourism will keep tanking along with small businesses ability to do business, as well as large retail taking a hit, as well.
Reagan increased taxes 'some' after he cut them a lot. The result of his tax cuts and defense spending increases was that he tripled the deficit. Bush far more than doubled or even tripled it since he took us from Clinton's 236 billion surplus to a 1.186 trillion deficit before Obama was ever even sworn in. Obama then cut the deficit in half by the time he left to 559 billion which Trump nearly doubled with more tax cuts before the pandemic even hit our shores (Jan 2020 CBO report).
All of Bush's and Trump's tax cuts and massive deficit increases did not even result in large GDP growth. Growth was below average in Trump's first term at 2.8% pre-pandemic and only average under Bush. Why? Because tax cuts at the top don't do squat. Reagan saw large growth because the Federal Reserve finally began lowering interest rates and because of increased spending, but the GOP have held onto the false myth that it was tax cuts and trickle down - and as a result of all of this nonsense we have massive deficits and debt and rising inequality and now our credit rating is at risk as well as our ability to finance all of that debt.
The GOP are irresponsible nincompoops who refuse to look at the numbers and evidence or to protect our constitution and the people they represent.
First of all, Reagan is the one who cut taxes in 1981.
Second, how the GOP fool their base and others about tax cuts and revenue is they say "look revenues increased from the prior year - record revenues!"
What they fail to tell people is that every single year in the USA is a record revenue year, unless we have a recession, as population and GDP grow and even due to some inflation.
After Trump's tax cuts, as is often the case, revenues increased a small amount (but if adjusted for inflation, they actually decreased).
In fact we brought in 300 billion less than had been projected prior to the tax cut so, deficits increased due to less revenue than had been projected.
This is because every year as a record year, also tends to be true for spending as well, where every year spending will tend to increase even if congress does not change spending policies in their yearly budget. This is also because of things like population and inflation.
Thus, when one cuts taxes, the gap between revenue and spending increases in the following years. This gap, the deficit, then has to be financed and this adds to debt. This is because even if we bring in more revenue than the prior year, we bring in far less than we would have otherwise without the tax cut and revenue is less able to keep up with even normal spending increases from a growing population, inflation, etc.
So, pointing out that "more revenue" was collected in later years under Reagan is meaningless, this is typically the case.
What matters is what revenue (and deficits) would have been had he not cut taxes.
Thus, even if all is assumed to remain the same for the government (no changes) both spending and revenues are typically shown as upward sloping graphs over time. With tax cuts, even if the graph continues to slope upwards, the gap between revenue and spending, the deficit, grows and financing this adds to debt.
Under GOP administrations these yearly deficits massively grow causing a need for more and more borrowing.
Anyway, to get a clearer picture if revenue and spending are keeping up or increasing or decreasing based on policy changes, one needs to look at revenue and spending as a percentage of the size of the economy, or GDP.
The reason this is a better metric is that it takes into account things like population, inflation, and the size of the economy so that one is comparing "apples to apples"
For example, in Clinton's later years when we had a surplus and were bringing in enough to pay the bills, revenue to GDP reached 19.5-20% and spending (including Medicare and SS ect) was less than this, so we had a surplus and did not have to borrow from the public. The excess from payroll taxes was held as intragovernmental transfers which is the part of the debt we owe to ourselves.
After even more tax cuts from Bush and Trump our revenue to GDP is somewhere around 17.2% and since GDP is around 30 trillion, this 2.5-3% loss is about 750 billion + dollars - this is money we now have to borrow and almost 1/2 our deficit! Much of the rest is a combination of interest, now approaching 1 trillion and increases in Mandatory spending (things that congress does not even vote on on a yearly basis like SS, Medicare, Medicaid that require overcoming a filibuster to change).
The part of spending that congress does vote on yearly, discretionary spending, is only 1/4 of all spending and the same size as the deficit at about 6.3% of GDP.
It is also the same % of GDP that it was under Clinton when we did not have a deficit but had a surplus instead, so it is not the cause of our deficit.
Discretionary spending also includes defense spending which makes up 1/2 of the total. Thus, congress would have to cut all of it, including all of defense to balance the budget.
We always knew that Mandatory spending for things like SS and Medicare and Medicaid would increase with an aging population, and this is where most all of the spending increases are coming from. Most of these programs have their own source of funding though payroll taxes (which the gov used to borrow the excess from).
So clearly, the main cause of our deficits are tax cuts and the inability to resolve what we always knew was looming on the horizon and that was our aging population.
I just read Orwell's 1984 again. The rewriting of history, obliteration of events and people, etc. all sound like something Trump may try, as he gets more and more desperate.
The rot set in to the US Right-wing when, in the 1980's the Reagan administration adopted the Laffer Curve as "scientific evidence", that lowering income taxes "always" result in increased tax revenue. And so, since that time, this is the fig leaf they've used to justify shifting the tax burden away from the wealthy and onto the lower income quintiles. Because rebuffing this quackery involves some economic literacy, they've been able to get away with it with low information voters to the extent it's become axiomatic among an election deciding cohort of voters.
Yes, it's a lie, and worse, its enduring success emboldened the Right-wing to peddle other lies (the Iraq war etc.) the better to scoop up credulous voters.
And so now, we have a Populist administration regime comprised of actors notable for acting with zero regard to facts at all.
There are two types: Those who love being in on the lie because it "owns the libs" and the True Believers who will accept that Trump has finally destroyed the Deep State (spoken in a spooky voice) and therefore their plan to post bad numbers that are fake were fake was foiled by their criminal orange Dear Leader.
Dealing with either type is pointless (by design).
Me too. No one seems to care that he's firing people every day from important positions from National Security to Justice. I fear this will start happening quite quickly
Right. I would be interested, if we get to the point that we can no longer trust the government numbers, in a way to identify as best we can what those numbers should be using crowdsourcing or whatever. I don’t know what would work, but I bet some of you smart folks might have some ideas. This is a corollary to my other goal of figuring out how to protect our assets in a possible kleptocracy. How do we invest if the our system gets corrupted.
It's the last part that has always worried me about Trumpism, that the data gathering and statistical agencies will be politicized and actual facts will disappear.
Still, when people are in Walmart and look at the prices on the shelves (assuming that there is anything there) they can't help but notice the increase in prices. And that is why tRump is so desperate for Walmart to hold the line.
Prices are lowered a little bit first in "special sales" so people forget how much an item cost, then prices are upped. Or packaging is changed, smaller quantities or smaller volume/weight, while it looks the same.
These guys will look you in the eye and lie straight to your face repeatedly before admitting Trump is a delusional idiot whose obsession with tarriffs will hurt most Americans.
Trump is an idiot in obvious cognitive decline who has surrounded himself with out of touch billionaires who crave the undeserved power he has granted them more than they care about their own integrity or reputations. He, and then by proxy they, will lie about every negative impact of his stupid tariffs while simultaneously blaming Biden and trying to bully big retailers into eating the price increases. They will fail and prices will go up, way up, especially when the effects of the cruel Trump Tax Scam are also felt. But Fox News and apparently the whole corporate media, will continue to be focused on Biden's health so they don't have to tell the American people the truth about that is happening and who caused it.
You are right, the tariffs, irresponsible tax bill, the uncertainty of their rash actions, their attacks on illegal immigrants, and slashing of basic research funding will all damage our economy. Browbeating retailers, if it works, will only delay reality by making it worse, like putting a lid on a boiling pot prevents the steam from escaping for only a little making the eventual reconning worse.
Speaking of "surrounding himself with billionaires," I think Trump is surrounding himself with a connection to the wealthy and powerful in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, because Putin and Kim abandoned him and I don't think King Charles has been welcoming either and certainly not the NY elite. Trump often name drops "Putin" saying he has known him for a long time as if he is name dropping a celebrity.
Trump is all about image and wealth this means he thinks he needs to surround himself with some variety of what he considers the upper class. It blows my mind that the same middle America who pride themselves as "average Joes" in song and culture are so attracted to all of this surface level Hollywood style glitter, but they are. There is a big disconnect between self-image and what they seem to admire, in my view.
In an old episode of "Frontline: The Choice 2016," it talks about how the Trump family, or rather Trump could never break into the old money circles of the NY elite and that he really wanted to do this and this was a sore subject. It seems, or I simply wonder, if he is still looking for that type of validation from the rich and powerful. He seems to think it is important for some reason. Maybe he was raised that way. That is rather sad.
I do not know why anyone would have wealth and status as a main goal in life like Trump seems to, as the pursuit and maintenance of wealth if you are not simply born with it, is really - really boring, in my eyes. Also, it does not make one any happier. I have known and lived among the haves and have nots. If you simply are, or happen to get rich for some other reason, well, it is simply nice, I suppose, but pursuing wealth for its own sake is really dull and dull is a simply waste of living.
Neither Trump nor Ivanka have ever figured it out. Not only was he a boor from Queens, he was too cheap to donate to any of the causes the NY social elite favors. She and Jared are also too cheap to make the right donations, but she never understood that her frenemies in NYC used to tolerate her because she is a Trump, and now they will not abide her because she's a Trump. That's why she and Jared moved to the second tackiest city in the country after Las Vegas.
Honestly, (for old money circles) I do not think there is real a way in unless you are in the arts. Yes, donating can show patronage which can open a door. However, one never gets all the way in. Old money is like the aristocracy. Successful artists are an exception and are allowed in, but they are almost like fancy accessories, but pursuits like arts and music have long been of value to the old money class. It goes back to the old money days of patronage, which still exists. As a patron, the artist’s talent is seen as a reflection of that wealthy person in those circles, like a fancy handbag, but if the artist also becomes wealthy and successful, well I think that is actually one way in to those circles. They become name droppable and their kids can then be the sons and daughters of "so and so" and if they then attend the right prep-schools...there you go.
The odious David Koch bought himself a ticket to the NYC elite with massive donations to the Metropolitan Museum of Art and other high profile charities. Everyone in NYC knew that the only charity the Trump Foundation gave money to was the Trump family.
Putin was supposed to get DonnyJon the Nobel Peace prize with a settlement in Ukraine. That didn't happen, so DJ is not so warm to Putin new. King Charles has granted DJ a second audience, which is unprecedented for the British royal family. I have no idea how much more DJ expects over there, but British royalty have been forbidden by law from messing around with politics for over a century. Things are likely to stay friendly distance with the King.
It is at those functions, fetes, galas, dinners, etc. where alliances are forged, deals are made, knowledge is shared, business comes to fruition. It is more than just a "rags, bags, and stones" parade. It is where power works hard to stay in power and where possible sock it to the common man.
I think there is a difference in what we are referring to. I was referring to the "old money" class, not just the rich. There are different sets of rules for fitting in. You may be able to buy your way into certain circles and make connections, but that is an outer ring. As far as the rich go, most actually have no interest in harming the "common man." Many are even philanthropists.
However some, as is true in all groups, are not of a good character and simply do not care if others are harmed so long as they benefit and wealth gives them more power.
Sadly, it is this ilk who are in power in politics right now and who are catering to wealthy donors who are also of a lesser moral character and rather greedy.
There are also plenty of good wealthy people who say that their taxes should be raised to help with the deficit and the poor. People like Buffett and Gates come to mind. There are a lot of wealthy people who are also Democrats and believe in things like universal healthcare, etc.
If we lump the rich into a category of "evil" then we are no better than the GOP who lump the poor into a category of "lazy" (most poor people are the hardest working of all).
Certainly neither is true, people are just people - some good and some bad and right now some bad selfish very wealthy people are in charge, in my view.
BTW - I would not call FDR a poor man, or Teddy Roosevelt or President Kennedy either and they all did some good for the common man, though with some serious faults, as well.
How do you think money is made - and more importantly, kept in the bank accounts. I never said these people are "evil". I just said they do what they think they need to do, and help one another doing it. While having a ball - or a dinner.
"It is where power works hard to stay in power and sock it to the common man."
I got my impression of your comment from that.
I simply assumed that the notion that if the intent was to sock it to the common man, that it was a bit like some "ACME Evil" membership club.
Sorry, if I took more out of what you wrote than what you intended. I too often hear people saying "the rich are all bad" and use them as a scape goat for our nation's ills, just like the GOP blame the poor. I even read a guest article in the NYT trashing Buffett and saying there are no "good rich people" and the readers and commenters loved it and all seemed to agree.
So that is where I am coming from. I am reacting to a lot of posts not just yours.
The evil rich thing is often a too often used as a generalization in some left-wing circles, so sorry about that.
Peter, I don’t think he’s an idiot. A shallow narcissist yes, and a grifter who loves revenge on enemies real or imagined, and maybe as you say in mental decline (which will be denied and hidden as it was with Biden, along with his adult nappies). What’s alarming for me is that he is a PUPPET for some evil people: Vought; Miller; Bannon…and the implicit bargain seems to be: “We’ll let you grift to your heart’s content, and block any investigations or lawsuits, while WE re-do the Republic on our Project 2025 agenda”.
“So is Bessent just lying? Or has he joined Trump in his epistemic bubble, where reality is what he wants it to be? I’m not sure which is worse.”
Excellent newsletter professor, as I think we all can agree that the above is a rhetorical question.
Of course Bessent is lying. The fish rots from the head down, and one thing we all know is that in the MAGAverse, there are facts, and alternative facts; with no room for dissent!
Bessent is doing what all good sycophants and good soldiers do, follow orders, even if it means leading your men and women on a suicide mission. And make no mistake, America is in the process of committing Seppuku, or Harakiri!
These are unforced errors that are meant to create a Shock Doctrine, and it’s been quite effective because most people are suffering from “normalcy bias” or syndrome. People want to believe that a rational person or businessman will always act rationally, or that things will continue as they have been in the past, even though all evidence points to the contrary! Remember, there is always self interest which can make people act irrationally, when it serves their purpose.
That said, instead of trying to rationalize or justify Trump’s behavior, we need to know what his objectives are, and from my vantage point; it’s all about Trump and his minions desire to reshape America into a theocratic authoritarian kakistocracy. IMHO…:)
I remember how Bessent stood there with poker face as press secretary Blondie was responding to the question regarding Amazon's plan to show tariff as a cost item on invoices..
Exactly, it’s economic jujitsu, as Bessent twists himself into knots trying to justify Trump’s actions.
At least we know one thing about Biden, that we can’t say the same for Trump. Biden’s team never had to spend 70% of their time putting out fires manufactured by his own stupidity!…:)
I don't think he is stupid, he walked into a trap. Now he finds himself defending the absurd, hoping this buys him time to prevent something worse. The irony is that when the British pound collapsed he was on the other side, betting against people like him today hopelessly trying to prevent market forces from asserting themselves.
Everyone in his cabinet of cranks volunteered to worship at the orange felon's feet. The one who sold his soul is Rubio. The look of pain on his face while the orange felon and jd torn Zelenskyy a new one in the Oval Office was obvious.
Bessent absolutely understands that Trump is watching, and will know what he says. He has to adhere to the party line or he will be on rhe outside looking in. He has to sacrifice credibility for influence over Trump. Disagreements cannot be public.
I don’t believe Trump has a theocratic bone in his body. Never did, never will. His waning energy is focused on making money. The closest he comes to religion is the joy he feels whenever powerful people kneel to him and kiss the ring. No wonder he posted that image of himself as Pope Trump.
Agreed, but he outsourced that responsibility to the Heritage Foundation, which vetted over 10,000 people to replace all the fired workers in key positions, based on their loyalty to Trump, and its own twisted vision of America by creating an authoritarian theocracy.
And let not forget, he already had a theocratic fascist court, which he outsourced to the Federalist Society in his last term.
Trump has no ideology, except making money, seeking vengeance, and consolidating power.
It's also an ILLUMINATING moment, because Trump dropped the pretense that foreign countries would pay his tariffs. In other words, he basically admitted that he was lying.
Paul Krugman wrote that already in a parenthesis ("(Weren’t the Chinese supposed to [eat the tariffs]?)"), but IMO that remark as a mere aside comes close to burying the lede.
He also dropped the pretenses that tariffs would bring back American manufacturing AND bring in so much money that we would no longer have to pay income taxes.
This is an important point that needs clarity. What they didn’t believe was that the numbers reflected the reality of their daily lives. Perhaps voters have been taking issue with that since the numbers showed recovery from the Great Recession.
No, the public believed what they actually saw and experienced: price shocks at the gas pump and the checkout counter in 2022-23 before inflation started to decline in mid-2024. The Prof. and other economists would insist on the Fed’s definition of inflation which excluded “volatile” food and energy prices, but these were the very prices that affected peoples’ everyday lives.
He actually expects Walmart to sell at a loss? Under threat? Does he think he's a god? He's out of his mind. The baldness of his narcissism is sickening.
Home Depot, Lowes, Ace Hardware, True Value are staring at the tRump tariffs. They all can't eat the tariffs any more than Walmart can. I am boycotting Amazon, but I imagine they are passing along the tariffs and I imagine it will depress sales.
Home Depot announced that they will, in fact, "eat the tariffs." Not sure about the others, but I was in Lowes buying trim on Sunday and two things were in evidence - 1) much of the stock was old, warped, and picked over, and 2) prices were up.
Trump obviously doesn’t do his own shopping and certainly doesn’t use Amazon. When he threatened Amazon over reporting tariffs in its price points, he didn’t realize consumers can look up their past purchases and compare the price paid previously with the price now. I’ve looked at purchases made in December 2024 and the price of those items now, and some of them have increased almost 40 percent in 5 months. Obviously I won’t be repurchasing at that much higher price point.
And he is stupid (literally) enough to believe his own fabulism and to think he is ever so much smarter than his MAGAts and the rest of us, that we won't notice.
So the overweening pride comes from a lack of self esteem? I suppose that is possible via a lack of discipline and supervision both administered in the best interest of the child and of course with the gentle hand of love.
Don’t Walmart stock holders get a say in what Walmart does if it hurts profits?
My concern is that during the post Covid inflation, there was a complaint that stores were price gouging under the cover of that understandable inflation. I expect more price gouging that will be blamed on the tariffs.
Here’s an idea. Back in the day, the Bronx had paintings in the windows of vacant buildings to disguise the desolation. How about mock product paintings to disguise the empty shelves. Perhaps paintings of high end gold items. More likely the empty shelves will be covered with colorful drapes.
I’m baffled by Bessent, wasn’t he trained by Soros, I was hoping he was a ‘plant’ but alas no he’s just another greedy heartless person. We are watching from Australia and we are all so sad for our American friends, hopefully you will come out of this again one day. Good luck 🙏
I recall during the 45 part of COVID how private people and orgs rose to the challenge of accurately reporting deaths, hospitalization and illness. Can the same thing happen with economic data?
Of course deception will be attempted. Marco Rubio just denied the Intelligence Agencies assessment that the Venezuelan government is NOT directing Tren de Agua to “invade” the U.S.. that assessment was sent back to the agencies to “find” that they are. So far the reassessment deeper dive has more than confirmed the original conclusion. The Trump
Administration is attempting to force the opposite so they can justify the use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport immigrants.
If Venezuela is attacking the USA via gangs, then the Administration should present the evidence to Congress. Then if Congress finds the evidence credible, they may choose to declare war on Venezuela. Of course if the evidence is not there this will expose The Felon Guy for yet another lie.
Congress hasn't declared war since 1941 (Japan). Congress turned over responsibility for initiating hostilities to the office of the President after WW II and people have seriously argued that every US "war" since then wasn't actually a war. All DonnyJon has to do is declare that Venezuela is in the wrong and send in the Marines.
I have been highly concerned that the government stats on the economy will be fudged under Trump. He has no concept of truth or fact... information, like everything else, is transactional with him. If the facts would be negative, he just creates "alternative facts"
I believe there are simply too many people/institutions involved in gathering and evaluation of statistical data and a lot of history behind and well-deserved respect for official US statistics. Government may try to fudge with what is published, but insiders would leak such effort leading to its failure.
The optimistic view...let's hope this maladministration is as leaky as his first one..
Immediately report all spam, please.
The menu (three dots) attached to the evil comment has a "Report" option.
Specifically, report to the general Substack rather than to PK, and select the SPAM option.
Consider what has happened to NOAA.
NOAA is essential for agriculture, marine transport, civil safety, the insurance industry, recreation, etc., but since the factual, scientific data that are reported by NOAA may support concerns about climate change, NOAA is being expressly dismantled by the Trump administration in accord with Project 2025.
We can save a lot of money by simply giving NOAA a supply of Sharpies.
I worry for that reason they're less likely to get fudged so much as not gathered and evaluated in the first place.
That may call for another round of Elon :)
We won't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows after all.
The pump don’t work cause the vandals took the handle
"I believe there are simply too many people/institutions involved in gathering and evaluation of statistical data and a lot of history behind and well-deserved respect for official US statistics."
Yeah, I once hoped this about a lot of things that were "too important" for Trump/Musk to be allowed to break. I know better, now.
I hope you are right
Fingers crossed
What you stated is one reason they "might" not pressure agencies to "fudge" numbers.
Although this may be wishful thinking on my part.
Trump is constantly saying that up is down and black is white already, and his faithful followers have no idea (or don't care) that the numbers that exist even now, show that his statements are simply not remotely close to accurate.
He simply lies and people buy into it, so no need to alter reality.
For example, when campaigning, he pointed to his first term as "the best economy ever" when his GDP growth was only barely average at best and he had nearly doubled the deficit with his tax cuts even before the pandemic hit our shores - and then we had a pandemic under his watch, as well.
I found it odd that a lot of journalists did not point this out. They did not counter him with actual proven numbers.
The same was true of Bush, where deficits skyrocketed from tax cuts and we did not experience high growth.
This is because tax cuts at the top do not work and there is no reason why they should since growth related expenses are not taxed in the first place (they are removed before arriving at net profit or income which is then taxed).
This is why no GOP president, since Reagan, has been able to replicate the growth we saw under Reagan. It is because the tax cuts under Reagan were not the main cause of the growth, but instead declining interest rates were, as the Federal Reserve eased after they got inflation down. It was also a unique situation where things had been suppressed for years due to the high cost of borrowing and suddenly the flood gates began to open, but the myth that tax cuts at the top were the cause is just that, a myth, which no one since has been able to replicate.
This means there was mostly a correlational effect under Reagan from other events, rather than cause and effect. Thus, the hypothesis has not been proven by following GOP administrations.
So, what does grow the economy? Those at the bottom and middle with enough to spend and consumer confidence grow the economy through demand, and this demand inspires businesses to expand and grow.
What Trump is doing is the complete opposite of what can grow an economy.
What he is doing will cause GDP to fall and deficits to grow due to a loss of tax revenue (from both tax cuts as well as a smaller economy). This combination will INCREASE the debt to GDP ratio.
In contrast, when the expanded child tax credit and final stimulus went out under Biden, growth was so massive in the 4th quarter as many at the bottom had enough to spend for the first time in perhaps decades as child poverty was cut in 1/2 and because consumer confidence was restored after vaccines went out that the debt/GDP ratio actually FELL!
This was because GDP, the denominator of the ratio, was much larger than spending increases. This is also what happened post WWII and this caused our debt/GDP ratio to fall.
We never actually paid off that old WWII debt!
Instead nominal GDP, the denominator, simply massively outgrew the dollar value of that old debt and that old debt became small by comparison.
An example would be a home your grandparents may have purchased. When they bought it, the mortgage to home value was probably close to 100% (analogous to debt/GDP). However, after decades, even if they only paid the interest on the loan, the increase in the home value (the denominator of the ratio analogous to GDP grew). So decades later, their mortgage to home ratio would shrink as the value to the home rose. GDP is also like a house in that we get revenue from all the economic activity, with taxes being kind of like rent. The larger the GDP the more revenue we have to pay the bills and this can reduce the deficit. If GDP shrinks, revenue falls with it. After the 2008 Financial Crisis, about 1/2 the increase in the deficit was from lost revenue plus emergency tax cuts.
The GOP have everything backwards, so is it any wonder that deficits increase on their watch and fall under Dem administrations?
We simply need to grow GDP and control the deficit - and the GOP are taking us in the opposite direction with this budget and with Trump's tariffs.
Í think your premises are correct but your conclusion is not.
Yes, he has easily abided facts that are inconvenient by denying them. But, he has also used the power of the office to control every source of information whether by firing civil servants, changing the remit of agencies, removing counter-evidence from agency websites and simply ceasing collection of data that offends him.
The control of the information ecosystem through his presidential or litigious power is his favorite tactic. For example:
-Suing 60 Minutes and using the FTC power to disallow their acquisition as a cudgel.
-Removing all climate change information from the EPA website.
-Demanding no funding of NPR or PBS by the Corp. Public Broadcasting.
-Creating a threatening enough environment for Amazon that Bezos has altered the editorial perspective of the Wapo.
-Culling the workforce at NOAA, FEMA and so forth to reduce the amount of data there is about climate change and climate risk (this has the side benefit of reducing visibility of hard-hit disasters).
-Discontinuing Radio Marti and VOA.
In essence, his entire MO is to use any and all tools to control both what information there is at all, and how and whether it is disseminated.
Yes, I think you are correct.
He seems to be in the early stages of trying to remove facts and those in charge of publishing them that counter his narrative, so you are certainly correct.
I personally think others are in charge of doing a lot of this because I rather doubt he even pays much attention to published numbers that are contrary to his ego. He will just blame his predecessor.
Yes, there is good reason to believe this axing and firing may eventually extend to these agencies who are responsible for collecting and publishing this data like BEA and BLS. He even calls for the removal of judges who do not agree with him.
I was simply being hopeful, I suppose.
Sorry for my French here but I can only say it one way.. when he sees negative shit thrown his way he’s the first FLY on it. If it’s one thing trump is probably personally involved in is his control and SUPPRESSION of the narrative!
True, but this is more often for what people say or do that may get media attention that he latches onto, especially if they are trying to control him.
Mere objective numbers he seems to pay far less attention to and simply dismisses them since he simply inserts his own reality or perception and his base do not believe in objective stats anyway.
You are correct however, that this is likely just wishful thinking on my part, because others surrounding him in the past have said (Bill Barr) that the winners in history write the history books, implying that the Trump era might be defined some day by intentional distortion (at least that is how I interpreted it) and his team may want to go as far as possible to distort reality, especially to suppress dissent if they move towards an authoritarian regime.
Impressive post!
Thank you!
Lying has historically been sufficient for Trump to get what he wants. The problem is they are not at all worried about the midterms, because many of their current policies are quite unpopular with tariffs being one of the least well liked. A second quarter drop in GDP would be a technical recession- Trump can call it “growing pains” or “Biden’s Bad Economy” but the business press with call it the Trump Trade War Recession- and because that is unacceptable next quarters reported GDP will be at least slightly positive.
Well, 2 negative quarters is one criteria for a recession, but it takes more than that. One has to also see things like unemployment rise, etc.
Biden saw 2 negative quarters after Manchin and the GOP axed the expansion of the child tax credit and the stimulus ended in the middle of an Omicron covid surge in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. However this was, according to bea, just from the sudden stop of the stimulus and the covid surge as well as businesses not restocking inventory and so unemployment did not increase and the economy simply picked back up from the slump.
A loss of employment opportunities would show that any negative GDP growth is not just statistical noise or temporary.
However, I agree that we will likely get a real recession under Trump who seems to be loosing what was left of his mind. Kicking foreign students out of Harvard? Harassing foreign tourists in Hawaii? Arresting PhD students for disagreeing with the way the Gaza war is going?
I mean, you do not have to be antisemitic to not like the level of destruction in Gaza, etc. Even the Israeli people are protesting Netanyahu. If Israelis who protest him in Israel come here to study, will they get their student visa's revoked and be called antisemitic even if they are Jewish?
I get the feeling this may actually happen because that is how nonsensical this all is.
This all seems insane to me, and tourism will keep tanking along with small businesses ability to do business, as well as large retail taking a hit, as well.
And people (supposedly on our side) who didn't want Biden will help by posting the propaganda, in a lame "I told you so."
Reagan increased taxes 'some' after he cut them a lot. The result of his tax cuts and defense spending increases was that he tripled the deficit. Bush far more than doubled or even tripled it since he took us from Clinton's 236 billion surplus to a 1.186 trillion deficit before Obama was ever even sworn in. Obama then cut the deficit in half by the time he left to 559 billion which Trump nearly doubled with more tax cuts before the pandemic even hit our shores (Jan 2020 CBO report).
All of Bush's and Trump's tax cuts and massive deficit increases did not even result in large GDP growth. Growth was below average in Trump's first term at 2.8% pre-pandemic and only average under Bush. Why? Because tax cuts at the top don't do squat. Reagan saw large growth because the Federal Reserve finally began lowering interest rates and because of increased spending, but the GOP have held onto the false myth that it was tax cuts and trickle down - and as a result of all of this nonsense we have massive deficits and debt and rising inequality and now our credit rating is at risk as well as our ability to finance all of that debt.
The GOP are irresponsible nincompoops who refuse to look at the numbers and evidence or to protect our constitution and the people they represent.
First of all, Reagan is the one who cut taxes in 1981.
Second, how the GOP fool their base and others about tax cuts and revenue is they say "look revenues increased from the prior year - record revenues!"
What they fail to tell people is that every single year in the USA is a record revenue year, unless we have a recession, as population and GDP grow and even due to some inflation.
After Trump's tax cuts, as is often the case, revenues increased a small amount (but if adjusted for inflation, they actually decreased).
In fact we brought in 300 billion less than had been projected prior to the tax cut so, deficits increased due to less revenue than had been projected.
This is because every year as a record year, also tends to be true for spending as well, where every year spending will tend to increase even if congress does not change spending policies in their yearly budget. This is also because of things like population and inflation.
Thus, when one cuts taxes, the gap between revenue and spending increases in the following years. This gap, the deficit, then has to be financed and this adds to debt. This is because even if we bring in more revenue than the prior year, we bring in far less than we would have otherwise without the tax cut and revenue is less able to keep up with even normal spending increases from a growing population, inflation, etc.
So, pointing out that "more revenue" was collected in later years under Reagan is meaningless, this is typically the case.
What matters is what revenue (and deficits) would have been had he not cut taxes.
Thus, even if all is assumed to remain the same for the government (no changes) both spending and revenues are typically shown as upward sloping graphs over time. With tax cuts, even if the graph continues to slope upwards, the gap between revenue and spending, the deficit, grows and financing this adds to debt.
Under GOP administrations these yearly deficits massively grow causing a need for more and more borrowing.
Anyway, to get a clearer picture if revenue and spending are keeping up or increasing or decreasing based on policy changes, one needs to look at revenue and spending as a percentage of the size of the economy, or GDP.
The reason this is a better metric is that it takes into account things like population, inflation, and the size of the economy so that one is comparing "apples to apples"
For example, in Clinton's later years when we had a surplus and were bringing in enough to pay the bills, revenue to GDP reached 19.5-20% and spending (including Medicare and SS ect) was less than this, so we had a surplus and did not have to borrow from the public. The excess from payroll taxes was held as intragovernmental transfers which is the part of the debt we owe to ourselves.
After even more tax cuts from Bush and Trump our revenue to GDP is somewhere around 17.2% and since GDP is around 30 trillion, this 2.5-3% loss is about 750 billion + dollars - this is money we now have to borrow and almost 1/2 our deficit! Much of the rest is a combination of interest, now approaching 1 trillion and increases in Mandatory spending (things that congress does not even vote on on a yearly basis like SS, Medicare, Medicaid that require overcoming a filibuster to change).
The part of spending that congress does vote on yearly, discretionary spending, is only 1/4 of all spending and the same size as the deficit at about 6.3% of GDP.
It is also the same % of GDP that it was under Clinton when we did not have a deficit but had a surplus instead, so it is not the cause of our deficit.
Discretionary spending also includes defense spending which makes up 1/2 of the total. Thus, congress would have to cut all of it, including all of defense to balance the budget.
We always knew that Mandatory spending for things like SS and Medicare and Medicaid would increase with an aging population, and this is where most all of the spending increases are coming from. Most of these programs have their own source of funding though payroll taxes (which the gov used to borrow the excess from).
So clearly, the main cause of our deficits are tax cuts and the inability to resolve what we always knew was looming on the horizon and that was our aging population.
“Alternative Facts” is the Republican Party in a nutshell.
"Alternative facts" = lies.
Wasn't it old what's her name who first brought those facts to the fore?
Kelly Anne Conway😖
Kellyanne Conway
The hell you say!
It's all about the $$$$ with the republicans.
I just read Orwell's 1984 again. The rewriting of history, obliteration of events and people, etc. all sound like something Trump may try, as he gets more and more desperate.
The rot set in to the US Right-wing when, in the 1980's the Reagan administration adopted the Laffer Curve as "scientific evidence", that lowering income taxes "always" result in increased tax revenue. And so, since that time, this is the fig leaf they've used to justify shifting the tax burden away from the wealthy and onto the lower income quintiles. Because rebuffing this quackery involves some economic literacy, they've been able to get away with it with low information voters to the extent it's become axiomatic among an election deciding cohort of voters.
Yes, it's a lie, and worse, its enduring success emboldened the Right-wing to peddle other lies (the Iraq war etc.) the better to scoop up credulous voters.
And so now, we have a Populist administration regime comprised of actors notable for acting with zero regard to facts at all.
God help us.
God helps those who help themselves. In other words, God fights on the side of those with the heaviest artillery.
Shadow stats are available (shadowstats.com, for example). I became interested in John Williams' stats when the government discontinued M-3 reporting.
Unfortunately, it appears the link you shared hasn't been updated for several years.
And his cult worshippers will believe anything. Anything.
There are two types: Those who love being in on the lie because it "owns the libs" and the True Believers who will accept that Trump has finally destroyed the Deep State (spoken in a spooky voice) and therefore their plan to post bad numbers that are fake were fake was foiled by their criminal orange Dear Leader.
Dealing with either type is pointless (by design).
Me too. No one seems to care that he's firing people every day from important positions from National Security to Justice. I fear this will start happening quite quickly
The Ministry of Truthiness, as it were.
A cascading vortex of suppressed economic news can only cause one thing!!.. and I’m saying this as a serial procrastinator, (absolute kaos)
However, we have many independent NGO's who keep track of a lot of this. And as long as the Federal Reserve stays independent we have FRED.
Right. I would be interested, if we get to the point that we can no longer trust the government numbers, in a way to identify as best we can what those numbers should be using crowdsourcing or whatever. I don’t know what would work, but I bet some of you smart folks might have some ideas. This is a corollary to my other goal of figuring out how to protect our assets in a possible kleptocracy. How do we invest if the our system gets corrupted.
Then why not get out in front of Paul's parade and act like you're leading it?
It's the last part that has always worried me about Trumpism, that the data gathering and statistical agencies will be politicized and actual facts will disappear.
Didn't they just fire National Security analysts for producing a report Dear Leader didn't like?
Still, when people are in Walmart and look at the prices on the shelves (assuming that there is anything there) they can't help but notice the increase in prices. And that is why tRump is so desperate for Walmart to hold the line.
Prices are lowered a little bit first in "special sales" so people forget how much an item cost, then prices are upped. Or packaging is changed, smaller quantities or smaller volume/weight, while it looks the same.
Except the Walmart shoppers I know will blame the Democrats, not their dear leader.
These guys will look you in the eye and lie straight to your face repeatedly before admitting Trump is a delusional idiot whose obsession with tarriffs will hurt most Americans.
Be assured that Trump and the GOP will do everything in their power to hide inflation and job losses.
BE disapearED, you mean.
You read Krugman too? Huh.
Trump is an idiot in obvious cognitive decline who has surrounded himself with out of touch billionaires who crave the undeserved power he has granted them more than they care about their own integrity or reputations. He, and then by proxy they, will lie about every negative impact of his stupid tariffs while simultaneously blaming Biden and trying to bully big retailers into eating the price increases. They will fail and prices will go up, way up, especially when the effects of the cruel Trump Tax Scam are also felt. But Fox News and apparently the whole corporate media, will continue to be focused on Biden's health so they don't have to tell the American people the truth about that is happening and who caused it.
So disgusted over that, let the poor man and his family be.
Borowitz had a great (satirical) take on Biden and the economy:
"Biden Covered Up Health Woes with Four Years of Booming Economy"
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/biden-covered-up-health-woes-with
My husband and I got a great laugh out of that post. Thank you!
Thank you for the link!
You are right, the tariffs, irresponsible tax bill, the uncertainty of their rash actions, their attacks on illegal immigrants, and slashing of basic research funding will all damage our economy. Browbeating retailers, if it works, will only delay reality by making it worse, like putting a lid on a boiling pot prevents the steam from escaping for only a little making the eventual reconning worse.
Speaking of "surrounding himself with billionaires," I think Trump is surrounding himself with a connection to the wealthy and powerful in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, because Putin and Kim abandoned him and I don't think King Charles has been welcoming either and certainly not the NY elite. Trump often name drops "Putin" saying he has known him for a long time as if he is name dropping a celebrity.
Trump is all about image and wealth this means he thinks he needs to surround himself with some variety of what he considers the upper class. It blows my mind that the same middle America who pride themselves as "average Joes" in song and culture are so attracted to all of this surface level Hollywood style glitter, but they are. There is a big disconnect between self-image and what they seem to admire, in my view.
In an old episode of "Frontline: The Choice 2016," it talks about how the Trump family, or rather Trump could never break into the old money circles of the NY elite and that he really wanted to do this and this was a sore subject. It seems, or I simply wonder, if he is still looking for that type of validation from the rich and powerful. He seems to think it is important for some reason. Maybe he was raised that way. That is rather sad.
I do not know why anyone would have wealth and status as a main goal in life like Trump seems to, as the pursuit and maintenance of wealth if you are not simply born with it, is really - really boring, in my eyes. Also, it does not make one any happier. I have known and lived among the haves and have nots. If you simply are, or happen to get rich for some other reason, well, it is simply nice, I suppose, but pursuing wealth for its own sake is really dull and dull is a simply waste of living.
Neither Trump nor Ivanka have ever figured it out. Not only was he a boor from Queens, he was too cheap to donate to any of the causes the NY social elite favors. She and Jared are also too cheap to make the right donations, but she never understood that her frenemies in NYC used to tolerate her because she is a Trump, and now they will not abide her because she's a Trump. That's why she and Jared moved to the second tackiest city in the country after Las Vegas.
Honestly, (for old money circles) I do not think there is real a way in unless you are in the arts. Yes, donating can show patronage which can open a door. However, one never gets all the way in. Old money is like the aristocracy. Successful artists are an exception and are allowed in, but they are almost like fancy accessories, but pursuits like arts and music have long been of value to the old money class. It goes back to the old money days of patronage, which still exists. As a patron, the artist’s talent is seen as a reflection of that wealthy person in those circles, like a fancy handbag, but if the artist also becomes wealthy and successful, well I think that is actually one way in to those circles. They become name droppable and their kids can then be the sons and daughters of "so and so" and if they then attend the right prep-schools...there you go.
The odious David Koch bought himself a ticket to the NYC elite with massive donations to the Metropolitan Museum of Art and other high profile charities. Everyone in NYC knew that the only charity the Trump Foundation gave money to was the Trump family.
The fact that one would know there was a "buy-in" seems to suggest he is not really "in."
Putin was supposed to get DonnyJon the Nobel Peace prize with a settlement in Ukraine. That didn't happen, so DJ is not so warm to Putin new. King Charles has granted DJ a second audience, which is unprecedented for the British royal family. I have no idea how much more DJ expects over there, but British royalty have been forbidden by law from messing around with politics for over a century. Things are likely to stay friendly distance with the King.
It is at those functions, fetes, galas, dinners, etc. where alliances are forged, deals are made, knowledge is shared, business comes to fruition. It is more than just a "rags, bags, and stones" parade. It is where power works hard to stay in power and where possible sock it to the common man.
I think there is a difference in what we are referring to. I was referring to the "old money" class, not just the rich. There are different sets of rules for fitting in. You may be able to buy your way into certain circles and make connections, but that is an outer ring. As far as the rich go, most actually have no interest in harming the "common man." Many are even philanthropists.
However some, as is true in all groups, are not of a good character and simply do not care if others are harmed so long as they benefit and wealth gives them more power.
Sadly, it is this ilk who are in power in politics right now and who are catering to wealthy donors who are also of a lesser moral character and rather greedy.
There are also plenty of good wealthy people who say that their taxes should be raised to help with the deficit and the poor. People like Buffett and Gates come to mind. There are a lot of wealthy people who are also Democrats and believe in things like universal healthcare, etc.
If we lump the rich into a category of "evil" then we are no better than the GOP who lump the poor into a category of "lazy" (most poor people are the hardest working of all).
Certainly neither is true, people are just people - some good and some bad and right now some bad selfish very wealthy people are in charge, in my view.
BTW - I would not call FDR a poor man, or Teddy Roosevelt or President Kennedy either and they all did some good for the common man, though with some serious faults, as well.
How do you think money is made - and more importantly, kept in the bank accounts. I never said these people are "evil". I just said they do what they think they need to do, and help one another doing it. While having a ball - or a dinner.
From your post:
"It is where power works hard to stay in power and sock it to the common man."
I got my impression of your comment from that.
I simply assumed that the notion that if the intent was to sock it to the common man, that it was a bit like some "ACME Evil" membership club.
Sorry, if I took more out of what you wrote than what you intended. I too often hear people saying "the rich are all bad" and use them as a scape goat for our nation's ills, just like the GOP blame the poor. I even read a guest article in the NYT trashing Buffett and saying there are no "good rich people" and the readers and commenters loved it and all seemed to agree.
So that is where I am coming from. I am reacting to a lot of posts not just yours.
The evil rich thing is often a too often used as a generalization in some left-wing circles, so sorry about that.
Thank you for adding this.
Peter, I don’t think he’s an idiot. A shallow narcissist yes, and a grifter who loves revenge on enemies real or imagined, and maybe as you say in mental decline (which will be denied and hidden as it was with Biden, along with his adult nappies). What’s alarming for me is that he is a PUPPET for some evil people: Vought; Miller; Bannon…and the implicit bargain seems to be: “We’ll let you grift to your heart’s content, and block any investigations or lawsuits, while WE re-do the Republic on our Project 2025 agenda”.
“So is Bessent just lying? Or has he joined Trump in his epistemic bubble, where reality is what he wants it to be? I’m not sure which is worse.”
Excellent newsletter professor, as I think we all can agree that the above is a rhetorical question.
Of course Bessent is lying. The fish rots from the head down, and one thing we all know is that in the MAGAverse, there are facts, and alternative facts; with no room for dissent!
Bessent is doing what all good sycophants and good soldiers do, follow orders, even if it means leading your men and women on a suicide mission. And make no mistake, America is in the process of committing Seppuku, or Harakiri!
These are unforced errors that are meant to create a Shock Doctrine, and it’s been quite effective because most people are suffering from “normalcy bias” or syndrome. People want to believe that a rational person or businessman will always act rationally, or that things will continue as they have been in the past, even though all evidence points to the contrary! Remember, there is always self interest which can make people act irrationally, when it serves their purpose.
That said, instead of trying to rationalize or justify Trump’s behavior, we need to know what his objectives are, and from my vantage point; it’s all about Trump and his minions desire to reshape America into a theocratic authoritarian kakistocracy. IMHO…:)
It is possible that Bessent is too stupid, or too entranced, to know he's lying.
He’s not stupid, just pleasing the boss. That said, the alternative is he gets booted because Laura Loomer says he’s not loyal enough…:)
It's also possible that Bessent, a man worth a half a billion dollars, hasn't purchased a tank of gas or visited a gas station in years.
Excellent point…:)
I remember how Bessent stood there with poker face as press secretary Blondie was responding to the question regarding Amazon's plan to show tariff as a cost item on invoices..
Exactly, it’s economic jujitsu, as Bessent twists himself into knots trying to justify Trump’s actions.
At least we know one thing about Biden, that we can’t say the same for Trump. Biden’s team never had to spend 70% of their time putting out fires manufactured by his own stupidity!…:)
I don't think he is stupid, he walked into a trap. Now he finds himself defending the absurd, hoping this buys him time to prevent something worse. The irony is that when the British pound collapsed he was on the other side, betting against people like him today hopelessly trying to prevent market forces from asserting themselves.
Agreed, and well said…:)
Well, Bessent made up an economist to quote in his book so why would he have a problem with lying for Trump?
Everyone in his cabinet of cranks volunteered to worship at the orange felon's feet. The one who sold his soul is Rubio. The look of pain on his face while the orange felon and jd torn Zelenskyy a new one in the Oval Office was obvious.
Agreed!..:)
Bessent absolutely understands that Trump is watching, and will know what he says. He has to adhere to the party line or he will be on rhe outside looking in. He has to sacrifice credibility for influence over Trump. Disagreements cannot be public.
He won't only be on the outside - he'll be under fire.
Exactly…:)
I don’t believe Trump has a theocratic bone in his body. Never did, never will. His waning energy is focused on making money. The closest he comes to religion is the joy he feels whenever powerful people kneel to him and kiss the ring. No wonder he posted that image of himself as Pope Trump.
Agreed, but he outsourced that responsibility to the Heritage Foundation, which vetted over 10,000 people to replace all the fired workers in key positions, based on their loyalty to Trump, and its own twisted vision of America by creating an authoritarian theocracy.
And let not forget, he already had a theocratic fascist court, which he outsourced to the Federalist Society in his last term.
Trump has no ideology, except making money, seeking vengeance, and consolidating power.
I can't believe he actually told Walmart to EAT THE TARIFFS. A terrifying moment. He really is out of control.
It's also an ILLUMINATING moment, because Trump dropped the pretense that foreign countries would pay his tariffs. In other words, he basically admitted that he was lying.
Paul Krugman wrote that already in a parenthesis ("(Weren’t the Chinese supposed to [eat the tariffs]?)"), but IMO that remark as a mere aside comes close to burying the lede.
He also dropped the pretenses that tariffs would bring back American manufacturing AND bring in so much money that we would no longer have to pay income taxes.
I'll bet the Waltons privately told him what he could eat when he said that. 😉
The public didn’t believe the actual data under Biden, with low unemployment, improved manufacturing etc.
This is an important point that needs clarity. What they didn’t believe was that the numbers reflected the reality of their daily lives. Perhaps voters have been taking issue with that since the numbers showed recovery from the Great Recession.
No, the public believed what they actually saw and experienced: price shocks at the gas pump and the checkout counter in 2022-23 before inflation started to decline in mid-2024. The Prof. and other economists would insist on the Fed’s definition of inflation which excluded “volatile” food and energy prices, but these were the very prices that affected peoples’ everyday lives.
He actually expects Walmart to sell at a loss? Under threat? Does he think he's a god? He's out of his mind. The baldness of his narcissism is sickening.
Home Depot, Lowes, Ace Hardware, True Value are staring at the tRump tariffs. They all can't eat the tariffs any more than Walmart can. I am boycotting Amazon, but I imagine they are passing along the tariffs and I imagine it will depress sales.
Home Depot announced that they will, in fact, "eat the tariffs." Not sure about the others, but I was in Lowes buying trim on Sunday and two things were in evidence - 1) much of the stock was old, warped, and picked over, and 2) prices were up.
Trump obviously doesn’t do his own shopping and certainly doesn’t use Amazon. When he threatened Amazon over reporting tariffs in its price points, he didn’t realize consumers can look up their past purchases and compare the price paid previously with the price now. I’ve looked at purchases made in December 2024 and the price of those items now, and some of them have increased almost 40 percent in 5 months. Obviously I won’t be repurchasing at that much higher price point.
And he is stupid (literally) enough to believe his own fabulism and to think he is ever so much smarter than his MAGAts and the rest of us, that we won't notice.
He is demonstrating the delusions and grandiosity of his dementia.
I AM TOO WEARING CLOTHES!! THE VERY BEST CLOTHES!!!!
https://imgur.com/gallery/emperor-has-no-clothes-XKVJs6v#sY68sQI
...like nobody's ever seen before.
This may serve as a cautionary tale to parents, you can love your children too much.
He wasn’t loved too much but too little.
So the overweening pride comes from a lack of self esteem? I suppose that is possible via a lack of discipline and supervision both administered in the best interest of the child and of course with the gentle hand of love.
Not just the pride. Think about his endless supply of RAGE.
The part about tweeting in all caps at 0200 seems weird. I enjoy my sleep too much for that. So where does the rage come from?
Don’t Walmart stock holders get a say in what Walmart does if it hurts profits?
My concern is that during the post Covid inflation, there was a complaint that stores were price gouging under the cover of that understandable inflation. I expect more price gouging that will be blamed on the tariffs.
Here’s an idea. Back in the day, the Bronx had paintings in the windows of vacant buildings to disguise the desolation. How about mock product paintings to disguise the empty shelves. Perhaps paintings of high end gold items. More likely the empty shelves will be covered with colorful drapes.
I'm wondering WMT announced price increases in the first place.
Tactical move?
I thought price controls were a commie plot.
I’m baffled by Bessent, wasn’t he trained by Soros, I was hoping he was a ‘plant’ but alas no he’s just another greedy heartless person. We are watching from Australia and we are all so sad for our American friends, hopefully you will come out of this again one day. Good luck 🙏
I recall during the 45 part of COVID how private people and orgs rose to the challenge of accurately reporting deaths, hospitalization and illness. Can the same thing happen with economic data?
AND health data. RFK2 will be killing millions via his deadly anti-vax, anti-research idiocy.
Yes but let me suggest a better name... RFK the Lesser.
Of course deception will be attempted. Marco Rubio just denied the Intelligence Agencies assessment that the Venezuelan government is NOT directing Tren de Agua to “invade” the U.S.. that assessment was sent back to the agencies to “find” that they are. So far the reassessment deeper dive has more than confirmed the original conclusion. The Trump
Administration is attempting to force the opposite so they can justify the use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport immigrants.
If Venezuela is attacking the USA via gangs, then the Administration should present the evidence to Congress. Then if Congress finds the evidence credible, they may choose to declare war on Venezuela. Of course if the evidence is not there this will expose The Felon Guy for yet another lie.
Congress hasn't declared war since 1941 (Japan). Congress turned over responsibility for initiating hostilities to the office of the President after WW II and people have seriously argued that every US "war" since then wasn't actually a war. All DonnyJon has to do is declare that Venezuela is in the wrong and send in the Marines.
Who wants to bet TRUMP has ever heard much less used the fabulous word dirigisme or has a clue what it means.
Thanks Paul for upping my economic and crossword vocabulary.
Dirigisme — it’s even fun to say.
I didn't know what it meant but just knew it had something to do with France.
Another fun one: orangism (like in Netherlands)
Which gave carrots their color (or so I was told).
However in Northern Ireland it was the cause of conflict causing much misery.
I saw something the other day that said while Walmart’s total profit is in the billions, as you’d expect, their margin is about 4.4%.
The idea that you become the nation's largest retailer by inflating prices can only be held by the casino bankrupter.
Would like to see a few private groups tracking the US numbers
Yes. Much like independent media has burgeoned.
Hoping leaders will leak to those who can retain reality.