On another subject, the Republican’s budget bill provides, “No court of the United States may use appropriated funds to enforce a contempt citation for failure to comply with an injunction or temporary restraining order….” That makes Trump dictator. It repeals the Bill of Rights. If Trump locks me up for posting this comment, no court could order him to free me. (The language I quoted is discussed in this morning's Substacks of Robert Reich and Heather Cox Richardson.)
This is, unfortunately, what roughly 60% of white voters (including 70% of white working class voters and 80% of white evangelical voters) voted for. They did it on purpose with malice aforethought.
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Yes. The top political priority of 60% of white voters is the preservation of systemic white advantages, and that’s an improvement compared to, say, 1965, when it was more like 80%.
>They did it on purpose with malice aforethought.<
No way this is true. The vast bulk of the WWC voters who pulled the lever for Trump are substantially ignorant on all matters related to public policy. They couldn't tell you the difference between a filibuster and Philadelphia.
Which is a big part of the reason we need virtuous elites. For me the biggest and most sobering shock of the last ten years or so has been the realization that there is no inherent "wisdom of the people" —equipped with a sense of decency and armed with common sense—that will save our democracy. No, our Republic must have guardrails, the most important of these in my view being political leaders—those who should know better—who exhibit at least a modicum of concern for the national interest.
One of our two parties still maintains such leaders (no, Democrats are far from perfect, nobody's arguing otherwise!). But the other party doesn't. Hence nominees and top officials like M.T. Greene, Herschel Walker, Peter Navarro, RFK Jr, Jeanine Pirro, Michael Flynn, Kash Patel, Donald Trump, and many, many others. The GOP has devolved into complete and utter lunacy and crankdom. But they win about 50% of our elections. Which is why we're phuccked.
Yes, I think you’re right on all counts. The malice aforethought that I referred to was the desire of most white voters to install a government that will persecute people they don’t like and preserve systemic legal, economic, and political advantages that white Americans hold over the rest of the population. They understand just enough to know that Republicans will help them in that project and Democrats won’t.
Mmm. No. These are low information voters—and i’m being nice. They voted for every sort of bigotry. I guarantee they know nothing of stagflation, the $ as world reserve currency, trade deficits —any of this. Ask them.
It wouldn't matter if the Court unanimously declares the provision unconstitutional. They'd be spitting in the wind. As Andrew Jackson didn't say (it's a myth), "John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it."
If he goes that far what's to stop the Democrats, Military or Courts from refusing to comply with his Decisions? They can say the same thing back make us comply. With courts unable to take decisions the state governments could oppose the Union and do whatever they wanted. This provision will cause chaos. Is it still in the budget?
Which, honestly, is a decent assumption. The Dems have been bringing a water pistol to a gunfight for so long... They don't realize that we are now in a fight against fascism, and that means that you have to use force to put down the toxic ideology.
Absurd. Not only are they constantly TELLING us that this is fascism, they're also doing what lawmakers in the opposition HAVE to do to fight back as effectively as possible.
And no, as the history of fascism shows, violence is NOT the best way to restore democracy. Just read Gene Sharp's books, if you're serious about fighting fascism, rather than doing what is easiest: cynically criticizing those who ARE standing in the mud fighting back right now...
Seriously? Huh. Lets see…Do you mean besides impeaching Trump, TWICE? While republicans sat on their hands and did NOTHING? If McConnell and republicans had honored their oaths to up uphold and defend the constitution and obeyed the rule of law, then removed Trump from office and declared him ineligible to run for office again, would we be in this mess?
They don't, obviously. They may be lying all the time, but they do know the facts: Democrats have been fighting Trump in the courts ALL the time, ever since he started his illegal presidency.
That is what Stephen Miller, etc. are currently doing. They make it look like incompetence and ignorance. But it is deliberate. They are giving the Federal Courts the finger.
Yet he probably knows nothing about Jackson, unless he's heard that Jackson killed many Native Americans (through the Indian Removal Act, which led to the Trail of Tears), and that's why he admires him.
He does know that Jackson was a bigot who defied the judicial branch of government that drumpf wants to abolish. drumpf's tiny mind does hold on to hatred with greater tenacity than to anything else.
"Bigot" is an understatement. Google states, "Andrew Jackson was a slave owner and slave trader. He owned enslaved people for a significant portion of his life, including during his presidency. He actively bought and sold enslaved individuals, not only for labor on his plantations but also for financial gain."
He's got Jackson's portrait in the oval office. Jackson is his "favorite" president.
At any rate, Jackson is much admired by Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, and no doubt the Project 2025 men. If nothing else, that pack of balding old white guys probably love Jackson't wild pompadour! ;-).
Congressional Republicans have always been more blameworthy than Trump, because they refuse to impeach and convict him. But that refusal is passive. Now they are taking an active role in making him a dictator.
Exactly. Headlines should be about the GOP, not Trump, because it's the neofascist GOP that is ACTIVELY installing fascism today - as their ideologues told us they WANTED to do, and for years.
Everybody is watching a clown-puppet-show, gasping and hissing at the puppets, even throwing rotten fruit at them. The golden jumbo jet! The memecoin! Attacking Zelensky! Profaning the Oval Office!
Meanwhile, the puppeteers behind the curtain are taking complete control of the Fed Gov't. And they are deliberately crashing the US and World economy.
Yep. Republicans have refused to take any responsibility for their own role in creating this mess even when democrats tossed them two soft balls, when they impeached Trump, TWICE! Instead, republicans sat on their hands and did NOTHING. If McConnell and republicans had honored their oaths to up uphold and defend the constitution and obeyed the rule of law, then removed Trump from office and declared him ineligible to run for office again, would we be in this mess? I dare say NOT! But instead they bowed, genuflected and kissed the ring! They are fully and forever complicit.
McConnell didn’t have to remove him from office…once McConnell had the articles of impeachment he could have used them as leverage to get things everyone wanted in a compromise bill for Trump to sign along with an agreement from Trump that he would declare “mission accomplished” and drop out of the 2020 race. Politics is the art of the possible and McConnell should have been thinking big instead of small.
It was a crime not to vote to convict. Shameful. Esp. the second time. And McConnell knew it - given his little spiel about letting the courts decide any criminality re Jan. 6.
Exactly. Republicans have refused to take any responsibility for their own role in creating this mess even when democrats tossed them two soft balls, when they impeached Trump, TWICE! Instead, republicans sat on their hands and did NOTHING. If McConnell and republicans had honored their oaths to up uphold and defend the constitution and obeyed the rule of law, then removed Trump from office and declared him ineligible to run for office again, would we be in this mess? I dare say NOT! But instead they bowed, genuflected and kissed the ring! They are fully and forever complicit.
I wasn't referring to the two impeachments during his first term. I was referring to the fact that he has committed uncountable impeachable offenses this term, and the congressional Republicans are responsible for every one of them after the first, which is when they should have impeached and convicted him.
The Senate can't have anything in Reconciliation that doesn't relate to the budget, the Byrne rule. The fact they are putting this fascist idea in the bill is terrible nonetheless
There is already talk amongst the Republicans that they will ignore any of the Parliamentarian's rulings that they find inconvenient for their purposes.
Below is the full text of a letter to Speaker Johnson by over 20 Democrats citing the despotic overreach buried in the GOP tax proposal in Section 70302. This provision "would significantly undermine the judiciary’s longstanding and constitutionally grounded authority to enforce contempt citations — a move that would weaken the separation of powers and pose serious risks to the rule of law in the United States."
"This is not merely a procedural concern, and this language has nothing to do with the federal budget. It strikes at the very core of judicial authority that is granted in our Constitution."
It sounds like what Democrats say -- formal, legalistic, polite. They should be SCREAMING!
I like this sentence: "Currently, more than 130 school desegregation orders, ongoing civil rights cases, and critical regulatory cases could become unenforceable under this provision." That's the point of the provision, apart from letting Trump kidnap and deport anyone he wants, citizen or otherwise. without due process. Do the Democrats really think that Johnson will get upset over desegregation orders not being enforced?
No, this is an open letter, almost as formal as a court filing. The SCREAMING needs to be more informal, meaning "everything else they ever say to the public".
There are voters you know; cf. my preceding comment. And many of them are not idiot fascists, including some who voted for the fascist last year, and more who equally stupidly refrrained from voting.
It will. What lawmakers are doing is CRUCIAL, whenever a democracy is turned into a fascist regime - as all studies show. We cannot want to reject fascism and then cynically reject basic facts too!
and this is general language, not just applying to contempt citations against the federal government. So that ANYBODY who was ordered to do something by a court - repair a tumbledown building, stop cutting down trees in a state park, pay alimony to an abandoned spouse - could simply refuse to comply, and the court could not order its enforcement.
In short, complete anarchy ... just to protect Trump/Miller/Noem's lawlessness.
The concern is broad and the dangers of a descent into fascism are very real. BUT the existence and relative independence (from the federal government) of state courts are still important positive aspects.
I'm sure you are right, but it did seem to me that the proximity of the educational tutorial to a statement like, 'It is still a(nother) body blow to the rule of law was unfortunate. Cries of the heart ought not to be punctuated, IMO.
Good to know. Sometime you ought to post about it, within, perhaps, some context where the distinctions between Federal and State powers are clearly important. Or contextualize them for us non legal scholars?
They are in a state of perpetual refocus and interpretation as in "On the other hand she wore a glove". If there is anything we have learned over the last 10 years it is that the law is in the eye of the beholder. Him what be holding the power maketh the law.
What, Katy? Did you think I was Barb Orze, or like her? I don't see the connection. I don't do reposts, btw, and I'm not a posting professional. Maybe your comment was misdirected.
Fair point - I was wondering about that - though given the 'budget' bill's inclination to mess with state law (e.g. prohibiting any state laws regulating AI), who knows if such a limit is intended. But - choose some other shocking examples, then, such as orders about logging in national parks (before Trump provides a permit), or blocking access to navigable waters, or interfering with diplomatic immunity of some countries.
It is still a(nother) body blow to the rule of law.
The GOP lawlessness. Let's finally get real! This isn't the work of a few (rather ignorant) individuals, it's the work of neofascist ideologues who have taken over the Grand Old Party.
Exactly. Republicans sold their souls and the Grand Old Party to the devil. As I recall, the democrats lobbed republicans two soft balls, when they impeached Trump, TWICE! Instead, republicans sat on their hands and did NOTHING. If McConnell and republicans had honored their oaths to up uphold and defend the constitution and obeyed the rule of law, then removed Trump from office and declared him ineligible to run for office again, would we be in this mess? I dare say NOT! But instead they bowed, genuflected and kissed the ring! They are fully and forever complicit.
It requires a constitutional amendment to formally change the Constitution, but judicial and legislative actions can have the effect of changing the Constitution. Any Supreme Court interpretation of a provision of the Constitution may have the effect of changing it, because the Court's decision may result in a provision meaning something that it did not mean before.
But it can do more than that. The Supreme Court's decision on section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which prohibits insurrectionists from holding any federal or state office, virtually repealed that provision by interpreting it to require Congress to invoke it. That's why we now have a president in office whom the Constitution prohibits from being in office.
If the House bill becomes law and federal courts cannot hold federal officials in contempt, that will also have the effect of amending the Constitution. It will in effect repeal the Bill of Rights -- no more freedom of speech or religion, no more due process of law, no right to trial by jury, etc., etc.
A serious SC should point that out and then nullify this provision in the bill.
That being said, when the Nazis grabbed power, they just ignored the Constitution and created their own legal system, in parallel. So sometimes fascists do change the Constitution (Orban did, in Hungary) but that's only possible AFTER you control Congress entirely (two thirds majority), so as long as that's not the case, fascists can just... ignore it.
Declaring that the US President is above the law, as SCOTUS recently did, is unconstitutional. The Constitution IS the Law, and no man or woman can contravene it without a Constitutional Amendment.
But somehow the Judicial Branch and the other two Branches accepted this unlawful ruling. I don't understand that at all.
SCOTUS did get a bit sneaky, saying that everybody else must follow the Constitution, meaning (I guess) Stephen Miller, the DOJ, etc. But then they backtracked and said the President had amazing, almost magical Pardon powers! Oh, and the President can accept payment for pardons. And once the dust settled, everyone seemed to forget the whole thing.
And when SCOTUS naively and unwittingly gave Trump immunity, they did so at their own peril. He’s proving he’s above the law by ignoring court orders and openly criticizing the Court
Yes, of course it does. It repeals the Bill of Rights, as I noted in my initial comment. (By the way, when I posted it, I did not intend to hijack Paul Krugman's post, which was about economics, if I recall.) But the question is whether a court declaring a statute unconstitutional will any longer have any effect.
What in the world does such a blatantly unconstitutional violation of separation of powers have to do with budget reconciliation, which is the narrow purpose of a bill that can't be filibustered? I suspect that there are countless other absurd policy dictates having nothing to do with the budget buried in their 1000-page midnight special.
Noone in Trump inner coven gives a damn about the courts and they are right as no judgements against the 2025ers are being properly implemented /adhered to by Government at disUSA federal. Options left seem to me to be States take full charge (disUSA is really 3-5 separate entities) or a carnation coup by the armed forces (as per Portugal 1970s)
My worry—expectation—is that Trump doesn’t do enough damage to reap his just reward, and his responsibility for what damage he does is lost in a haze of zone flooding, propaganda, and scapegoating. Too many people are deeply corrupted. Epistemologically corrupted. Willfully corrupted.
Trump accepts a $400,000,000 bribe from Qatar and his approval rating goes UP 2%! That proves we are not longer a serious country and that we collectively deserve some serious consequences.
Or it might be a kind of window into how the MAGA base thinks: it's 'manly' to use your power to grab stuff and 'manly' to do what you want, when you want to whoever you want. Ergh.
I suggested on my own Substack that it may have been a shakedown of the Qataris to keep shipping lanes for their oil open. I have no proof one way or another: bribe or shakedown.
And when Trump asked Putin to hack into Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2016, instead of his approval numbers going down, Putin's approval numbers (among Republicans) went up.
The billionaires behind this destruction claim they will have completed projevt 2025 by July 4? 3026? Total dictatorship, destruction of the “ administrative state, rule of law, Evengelical rule( which we have mot yet seem much of unless you have read about that. Not prettier. There is celebration planned for that day, probably with the military hosting . They are plugging along , seemingly with no problem or deterrence. I can assure anyone this all has shortened my life!
I just got back from a trip to Amsterdam and Amiens. Not long before I left, I read two books, Good Reasonable People by Keith Payne and The Violent Take It by Force by Matthew D. Taylor. Mr. Payne, a psychology professor at UNC Chapel Hill, discusses how people think about the world and says that most of us want to believe that we and our groups are "good reasonable people" and goes on to discuss the psychology behind that. Early in the book he states that most people go through life trying to make sense of the world as best they can. When I read that, my first thought was yeah, but if you are viewing the world through the lens of ignorance, your conclusions are going to leave a lot to be desired.
Mr. Taylor is a religious studies scholar and expert in independent charismatic Christianity and Christian nationalism (description on the dust cover). His book is deeply disturbing to me. He describes how people like C. Peter Wagner, Paula White, Cindy Jacobs and others managed to convince independent, charismatic evangelicals to support Trump, and how they were deeply involved in the events of January 6th.
At the beginning of TVTIBF, Taylor explains that what we call the evangelical community is not one homogenous group. He divides them into four groups based on whether they are denominational or independent and non-charismatic or charismatic. Evangelicals that are "charismatic" believe in things like speaking in tongues and the laying on of hands and faith healing. The people that Taylor writes about also believe in a hierarchy of demons and that Christians are required to battle these demons. It was a lot for me to get my head around. To be blunt, these people scare the hell out of me. They are batshit crazy, but they know how to organize and motivate their followers to action. They also have a world-wide presence and believe that God wants them to dominate the world.
Both books offer some insight into how some people have managed to turn Christianity on its head and some of the ways in which our democracy is threatened from within by people that think God is on their side.
The reason I mentioned I just got back from a trip is that while I was in Amsterdam, I did not see one homeless person, nor did I see anyone panhandling on the streets. I did see a few people panhandling in Amiens, but not many. It has always puzzled me how so many people in America can claim to be Christian while eschewing the basic values of Christianity itself. Christian nationalists have very little to do with Christianity; they want to maintain the historically privileged status of white Christians in our society at the expense of everyone else, and that is why they support Trump and believe he is their King Cyrus.
Thank you for this insightful information. One of my best friends has been visiting Copenhagen, Scotland, Sweden and Croatia for the past six weeks and she has also remarked about the visible difference between our country and others regarding the absence of homelessness. Additionally, they have cleaner streets, great transportation systems and a greater sense of security and community while Americans are seeing the increasingly dangerous rise of poverty and loss of medical assistances. It’s heartbreaking to watch Trump’s pundits repeatedly refuse to answer questions in front of Congress while they are passing bills to promote his agenda.💔
There are about 17,000 homeless people in Amsterdam. Panhandling and begging are forbidden in the city (per APV) and these regulations are enforced. There is a lot of pick-pocketing.
About the same number of people in Amsterdam are addicted to hard drugs.
There is something perversely appropriate about completing the destruction of American democracy by the nation’s 250th anniversary. What an accomplishment.
If our resistance is effective, and each of us is trying in our own ways, there will be something glorious in saving American democracy by our 250th anniversary. I have no easy answers, for there are none. However, when our nation was founded, estimates say that a third of colonists opposed independence from England, a third favored independence, and a third did not care one way or the other.
The media environment is as bad as it's ever been - possibly worse, because even in the Gilded Age people usually weren't kidding themselves that media sources were reactionary rags owned by and working for the rich, whereas today the consensus reality remains that the media is "liberally biased." I have no idea *how* the fuck to snap people out of it, and I can't see how it doesn't continue to wreak havoc on the political system.
“Losing any significant part of that money would force interest rates higher. You have to think that fears of a sudden stop are helping to drive up long-term rates, which keep hitting new highs:”
We’ve been losing a lot of foreign investment since Trump was reelected. Capital outflows have exceeded inflows since Trump was reelected. His saber rattling of invasions of our allies, and his mystical tariff math has led foreign investors and governments to realize our president has a few bats flying around the attic; and that’s my diplomatic response.
Not to mention, his weaponization of the DOJ and FBI have led to our loss of the rule of law, which is a big problem for foreign governments and companies. Japan has said they won’t support any Trump agenda that harms China, and they aren’t renewing their matured treasury’s anymore; a sign of bad things to come.
And as far as US companies bringing investment back to the US. Let’s look at Apple. For example, in 2017 they were investing $400 billion in the US. It became $350 in 2022, and just a few months ago it mushroomed to $500 billion. And in the end, they haven’t invested ONE DOLLAR so far.
That said, given the economic climate and the uncertainty of the Trump agenda, I wouldn’t expect any companies to actually start digging foundations for their new plants and infrastructure; at all.
Additionally, when you consider that tourism is expected to decrease by approximately 30-35% this year, we will be running much higher deficits with less tax revenue to cover the debt, so expect interest rates on Treasury’s to rise significantly.
Bottom line, I don’t see market conditions getting better any time soon. In fact, every time Trump opens his mouth, he makes the situation even more uncertain, and worse! IMHO…:)
Paul mentions the housing market. My recent observations are that we are already feeling the shift to a buyers market. For the 11 years I have lived in our MA neighborhood, homes have sold within four days, with multiple offers and always at or above the asking price.
The last two condos to sell took 4 months. And now, for the first time in that 11 years a unit that was "priced right" just had a significant price drop. The Open Houses are not attracting viewers. The condo is beautifully staged, very well priced and in a "much desired" neighborhood. The market is stalling out here.
You mentioned tourism as suffering. I think those numbers will start rolling in as we see the results of Canadian "snowbirds" staying away. And the "high season" in Maine and Cape Cod may not be so high. Travel to the U.S. is being viewed as unsafe and expensive! And then there is the political perception...
I have relatives in Florida with properties on the market. Nothing is moving for them. A deal which was headed for a closing was cancelled by the buyer - worried about the chaos of the economy. A snapshot of the change is on Zillow. Select a town, look at the number of properties for sale and look at how long they have been listed.
The economic ripple effect of the MAGA moves - fascistic and financially stupid - will become a Tsunami of Suffering. We ain't seen nothin' yet.
Agreed, and well said. I live in Miami, and the market is grinding to standstill. Like you opined, the average sale cycle is four months or more, with significant price reductions. And it’s about the get worse…:)
Construction, rebuilds, and additions are plummeting, too. We held off on necessary work on our house after the election because of the uncertainty. We're afraid to spend that kind of money given the current mess.
And when the crisis hits, you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be nary an adult to be found in the room of the tRump regime. tRump will be listening to the likes of Peter Navarro or whatever his secret identity is at that time.
He makes the situation more uncertain to reasonable people who hear what he says. I saw in the news today that the government is no longer putting what Trump says on their web site. They're putting up selected video clips instead.
It is not clear, "And as far as US companies bringing investment back to the US. Let’s look at Apple. For example, in 2017 they were investing $400 billion in the US. It became $350 in 2022, and just a few months ago it mushroomed to $500 billion. And in the end, they haven’t invested ONE DOLLAR so far." Could you please elaborate?
Apple has been saying for the last five to seven years, that they would make hundreds of billions in investments in the US. Yet, they make the announcement to please Trump, but have not even broken ground for any of the manufacturing plants they agreed to build, nor have they hired thousands of additional workers.
“But in any case, the important point here is that “when a country has a vibrant economy” is key. And this is all the more true when it comes to a country at the top of the global economic system.”—EZ
Agreed! Yet, isn’t that exactly what Biden handed Trump in January? We had a booming economy, and inflation was getting under control at 2.3% year over year, after he inherited a nightmare from Trump’s first administration.
Furthermore, our economy was the envy of the world, including China. And regardless of the initial 20% increase from the initial inflation; which had to do with supply chain issues after Covid ended. And look at our economy now?
Secondly, Trump inherited a robust economy in his first term, and ignored COVID. He knew it was a respiratory virus, and refused to alert the public because he didn’t want to shock the markets. He stated as much to Bob Woodward in an interview in January 2021, before the markets tanked in March.
Not to mention, how despicably he handed the plague. He refused to take responsibility, and when it got out of control, blamed the scientists like Fauci, China (kung flu), or a democratic hoax. Instead, he peddled snake oil cures, and undermined his own experts, even suggesting that masks didn’t work!
Additionally, he also refused to release the National Reserve of PPE’s, respirators and ventilators to the states, causing them to compete for limited supplies at ten times the cost. Not to mention, in 2018, he disbanded the National Security Global Health Unit, saying it was unnecessary, and two years later we had COVID. Im not suggesting COVID was the end result, but I am suggesting we could have been better prepared had he kept it in place.
Is this what you call leadership? Is this the guy you want next to you in a Fox hole when your life is on the line? Moreover, government estimates establish that Trump’s ineptitude caused an additional 500,000 to a million US deaths, and made the virus last longer than necessary, especially after he refused to allow the government to ship test g kits to the states, his belief that if no one is tested, then the disease will just disappear on its own.
“You know what the funny thing is? That I was arguing in parallel with you with another person in another post. And he argues just the opposite - that trade deficits don't turn into debt.”—EZ
I’m not saying that foreign investment causes debt, it doesn’t! Our deficits and surplus’s determine our debt. Foreign investments in the treasury markets allow us to service our debt at a lower interest rate. When foreigners invest in the US, it means we are at the top of the global economic system; however, this is coming undone; the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world is ending as a result of Trump’s grand master plan; whatever the hell it is! Great strategy so far!
“But in any case, the important point here is that “when a country has a vibrant economy” is key. And this is all the more true when it comes to a country at the top of the global economic system. It is therefore very important for a country to maintain its position as close to the top of the global system as possible. That's why the struggle to be as high as possible is worth the bankruptcies and rising prices of consumer goods. All of these are just collateral factors in the struggle. But the goal is to maintain dominance. If the US wins, it continues to enjoy all the benefits of its position. If it loses… there will be many more bankruptcies, price hikes, etc.”—EZ
Yes, the goal is to maintain dominance, but we aren’t holding and of the cards. We could have had Trump united all our allies against China; instead he alienated them and sent them straight into China’s hands. Both Japan and S. Korea have been recently been meeting with the Chinese. For decades, China has been trying to make better trade deals, but island territorial disputes made it impossible. Yet, recently Japan told Trump they wouldn’t agree to any trade deals that hurts China, and they are no longer renewing their $1 trillion in treasuries; instead, they are just letting them mature, and moving the money back overseas? Tell me, is this your idea of winning against China, because to me, it suggests the opposite?
And as far as farm and corporate bankruptcies being worth it, as well as food prices increasing if we ultimately win the trade war is a ridiculous argument. This isn’t a ZERO SUM GAME. We don’t need to cause pain in order to win. What we need is a strategy and allies.
In fact, Biden’s CHIP ACT and his infrastructure bill were doing that for America; bringing manufacturing in key industries back to America, with high paying jobs. Instead, Trump is ending both, and replacing it with a “concept” of a plan to defeat China in a trade war; details to come, while our economy is teetering on the brink!
Additionally, have you noticed recently that treasury bond yields have increased substantially? The 30 year bond yield is at 5%. The 20 year yield is 4.8%! We haven’t seen these high yields since the 70’s. And this is all o Trump for his tariffs and the uncertainty and instability he is causing daily.
Bottom line, we agree that we need a strategy to defeat China’s long-term plans of global domination, yet everything Trump is doing is producing the opposite results.
He took the reins of the government and a great economy twice; and destroyed them in a NY minute! And if the goal is dominance, don’t believe manufacturing higher interest rates to service the debt, helps this goal or helps it. Debt destroys super powers, and with his new budget for 2026, he will be adding $3 trillion a year to an already bloated ($1.8 trillion deficit), meaning we will increase the deficit by 150%, and pay much higher interest to service it; undermining our ability to keep our military readiness, and be in the drivers seat for future economic trade deals.
I get your point, but apple iPhones and computers require a certain technical skill set that we don’t have here. Migrants aren’t building your IPhone. In fact, most of the migrant type manufacturing has been outsourced by China to places like Vietnam for the last 20 years. And China is the industrial hub of the world right now.
And even if we could assemble the phones and computers in America, we would still have to import all the raw materials and components which have been saddled with high tariffs for everything.
Therefore, the cost to build factories and produce the product are going to go up as much as 30-40%. And this doesn’t include the higher salaries that American unions and workers require.
Additionally, we import most of our steel and aluminum, and we couldn’t scale up production in America to meet that demand even if we tried. We don’t have the industrial base to do so, and it would be five to ten years just to double our capacity.
Bottom line: bringing manufacturing back home will not solve our short-term economic issues, it will only cause a major recession; increase consumer pricing (inflation), while reducing demand, jobs and overall tax revenue. In fact, we are on the road to stagflation should these tariffs continue at this rate indefinitely.
And in the end, the cost to move production to the US is also risky; not just because of the tariffs on everything (building and manufacturing costs), but because of the uncertainty and instability Trump is unleashing on America and the world. IMHO…:)
You are falling for Republican lies. We’ve been adding manufacturing jobs since 2010. And we produce most of the steel we use and the majority of the rest comes from Canada and Mexico and not China. And the majority of the aluminum we consume comes from Canada.
And the jobs we want are value added manufacturing jobs which is what we have been adding. Biden did a great job of implementing the America First agenda and I would say you can check out on Google Maps satellite the semiconductor factory in Taylor, TX…except it is so new it’s not even showing up yet!?! And it’s HUGE!!!! Billions of dollars invested in a semiconductor plant in a very short period of time!!
Gene, I didn’t say we didn’t add manufacturing jobs under Biden, but most manufacturing isn’t coming back, regardless of who is in the office. And I certainly would never regurgitate Republican talking points, you must have me confused with someone else.
My point, we are in a globalized society, and many aspects of manufacturing will not be coming back because even if we wanted to, many of the new domestic manufacturing jobs will be automated. New manufacturing jobs do not require as much human capital as part of the manufacturing process.
And I never said that we import most of our steel from China. That said, we do not produce nearly enough of our steel and aluminum output. We import almost 40% of our steel from Mexico and Canada, as well as 50% of our aluminum needs. US steel production accounts for about 4% of global production.
And China's manufacturing value-added is significantly larger than the US, with a total of $4.66 trillion of total global output in 2023, compared to the US's $1.867 trillion; or 29% of global share, versus 15% for the US. Not to mention, China leads in basic and fabricated metals.
"most of the migrant type manufacturing has been outsourced by China to places like Vietnam for the last 20 years. And China is the industrial hub of the world right now". Okay, so you understand that this is a consequence of US policy over the past 40 years. And you propose to do nothing about it?
"we would still have to import all the raw materials and components which have been saddled with high tariffs for everything" - yes, those tariffs have to be cancelled.
"We don’t have the industrial base to do so, and it would be five to ten years just to double our capacity." - So, based on this, is it better to give up? Who said this is a short-term skirmish designed to please voters? This is an existential struggle.
"it will only cause a major recession; increase consumer pricing..." - Is this too high a price to pay to avoid ultimate stagnation and transition to the role of a second-tier country?
"uncertainty and instability Trump is unleashing on America" - Of course. If the US does nothing, then there is a clear certainty – the US is sinking. China is rising. If the US does something, then there is obviously uncertainty – will we succeed? Will we lose?
“So, based on this, is it better to give up? Who said this is a short-term skirmish designed to please voters? This is an existential struggle.” —EZ
“- Is this too high a price to pay to avoid ultimate stagnation and transition to the role of a second-tier country?”—EZ
“Of course. If the US does nothing, then there is a clear certainty – the US is sinking. China is rising. If the US does something, then there is obviously uncertainty – will we succeed? Will we lose?”—EZ
Stagflation and insurmountable debt and deficits are exactly where we are headed, and not short-term, and there is no long term gain here. He doesn’t have a plan to combat China. You certainly don’t accomplish that feat by taxing and alienating all of our allies needed to accomplish that task. With our allies in the East and West, we account for 70% of the world’s GDP.
And these are all self inflicted wounds. We were the economic envy of the world, expected to grow by 2.4%. Instead, we are teetering on the brink of recession. Food and all items are about to see increases we haven’t experienced since COVID.
Our ports are empty and the supply chain is shattered, while all of our allies and best trade partners are making back room trade deals (reconfiguring their supply chains), while trying not to engage Trump; just humoring him, so they don’t get on his bad side before they can decouple from our economy, as much as possible. No one Trusts Trump or even thinks he’s sane.
Trump also says that gas prices are coming down. Thats true, what he fails to mention, is that when crude prices drop below $60 a barrel, so does production; which is now the lowest it’s been domestically in a decade. And the reason for the drop in price isn’t anything Trump did that’s beneficial; it’s because his tariffs have cause global growth which was already stagnant, to fall further. Global demand fell, so supply follows suit!
So if you want to support Trump’s policies that fine, but please explain to me what they are, except causing chaos, and what the end game is?
What exactly do you think he is accomplishing, except to destroy our Treasury markets (Crown Jewels), and our place as the reserve currency of the world. He’s also destroying our tourism; bookings to states, (for the second and third quarter) that rely heavily on tourism is down 35-40%.
Not to mention, the incalculable damage he’s done to our scientific community NIH, CDC, etc…as well as our Universities and Colleges; both gold standards and envies of the world. Do you think with Trump’s meddling it will be this way in a decade? And don’t get me started on due process and the rule of law.
So please, in all your infinite wisdom, explain to me how Trump is making anyone’s life better, except his own, his family, and his compadre’s? And perhaps, everyone in the top 5% that will reap a windfall with his tax cuts.
Please, for your readers, describe what happens personally to everyone when this sudden stop occurs, because it will. We are no longer a country that others want to carry our debt.
Japan, I believe holds $1T of our debt and European countries with Canada hold billions.
This Canadian will never buy another American product (short of dire necessity. I confess to buying once since Feb; it was a bag of walnuts - EU; send walnuts!). I will never, ever travel to or in the USA again, and will never invest there in future. I put my money, fwiw, in Canadians and Europeans.
Incidentally, some Americans might want to check out the nice things that other countries - democracies - have
We've done that. We love Holland and Portugal. Challenges - 1) It's very difficult to acquire foreign citizenship when you're elderly. 2) When your sources of income (IRA and Social Security) are in the US, you can't reach a point where you are unaffected by what the US does (if that's not true, please expound on this). 3) It's hard to move that far from your children.
But…it seems most Americans are just blindly voting for cruel GOP austerity OR deliberately choosing autocracy - or both! It does look self-destructive, and maybe they just haven't noticed that it's possible to treat everyone decently while making a good living -?
In the US it is already difficult to acquire citizenship when you are young. Unless you marry a US citizen or are related to one. The emphasis of US immigration is family reunion. No US Immediate Relative or Family Member? Too bad - no welcome mat.
Several European countries issue long term residency visas to elderly persons: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Malta. The US has nothing comparable (yet is always talking about "reciprocity" when it comes to visas).
If you like The Netherlands*, look into DAFT, the Dutch-American Friendship Treaty visa. It allows U.S. citizens to move to the Netherlands to establish a business, work as a freelancer, or operate as a self-employed individual.
Warning. Emigrating is hard, in every regard.
* Since 2020 the Dutch Government prefers you call it The Netherlands, as "Holland" only pertains to part of the country.
My favorite quote about the Netherlands was written by a British MTB commander in WWII who stated that "the low countries are not idly named, and sighting the coast was usually synonymous with running aground."
I saw a post/article of several about Nazi Germany in The Jacobin that is difficult to find now. The German companies that did business with the Nazis faced a market drop of 60% immediately after WW II. However, most are still in business & rather successful today (that's the "eventually" that PK is referring to?). However, the holders of German government securities were completely wiped out. Sophisticated foreign investors who know the serial bankrupt's history can see the writing on the wall. Babylon Berlin in a Hipster Historian trailer video looks eerily reminiscent.
The reason the rest of the world would cease to trust the full faith and credit of the US is not Trump -- it's the people who vote for him. They are both irresponsible and reckless and therefore undeserving of the world's trust, because they refuse to learn from history
Agreed. Biden was able to re-earn the trust of other nations by saying that Trump was an anomaly. His re-election has shattered that work. Now the USA is a nation that can elect fascists even after knowing that they are fascist. And THAT is not a good business partner, or a good ally, or a good place to vacation.
And the problem is that even Trump 1.0 wasn't really an anomaly. He was building on trends that were already there under the previous Republican.
As a foreign blogger I was following at the time said, electing Obama after eight years of Dubya made America look like it was finally checking itself into rehab. Electing Trump after eight years of Obama made it look like the perpetual fuckup who might sometimes try to clean up, but would always fall off the wagon sooner or later.
That was the *first* Trump administration. Now we've brought him back *again,* and look where we are.
There's a trend of America spiraling downwards and refusing to do the work to straighten itself out that goes back... heck, arguably as far as Watergate, maybe even McCarthy, but that just became impossible not to see in the 21st century.
Who knew that Diaper Don could destroy a vibrant economy and great nation in less than six months. If we weather this crisis I can say that I will never vote for a republican for the rest of my life. They are complete cowards and sell outs!
This may be no bad thing, as it could destroy public support for Trump and lead to his downfall. OTOH, it may cause him to go more extreme and do something as a distraction from domestic crisis. Rather like Argentina invading the Falklands in 1982, a last desperate attempt by the junta to stay in power.
Downfall? How? We don't have a parliamentary system where resignations/a no confidence vote can force snap elections or something like that.
Trump and the Republicans *know* none of this is popular with a majority of Americans. Republicans, and most their policies, haven't enjoyed the support of a majority of Americans nationwide for decades. They don't care, because they don't actually need the support of a majority of Americans because of things like the Electoral College and partisan gerrymandering of Congressional districts. Not to mention the fact that a majority of their voters have been inside the Republican media echochamber for so long they wouldn't know how to "get out" even if they wanted to. When things start to *really* economically go badly for Republican voters (especially seniors) Faux Noise will simply "ramp up" the scapegoating of others, and Republican voters will believe it. This isn't unique to Trump. Many of their voters have believed all the scapegoating and lies since Reagan's "welfare queens."
Lastly, if you're talking about impeachment and removal, sorry, it's just not mathmatically likely at all I have no doubt the GOP loses the House in 2026, and Trump's impeached in late January/early February 2027. However, conviction and removal by the Senate is a *very* high bar. Democrats could take control of the Senate too, and still not have the 3/4 majority votes for conviction and removal.
When the economic destruction hits home, I suspect even a lot of the MAGAnuts will start to rethink their position. We're well past the 100 day mark, so at this point, Trumpkopf and Faux Noise (good one BTW 👍) won't be able to blame "the libs".
Thus, I believe we'll see a blue tsunami in 2026. Then maybe we can start to see some accountability.
I think we'll take the House. I'm not sure there are enough Republican senators up for re-election, and it looks like we're losing Fetterman, whether he stays a Democrat or not.
It's only a 2/3 majority in the Senate, not 3/4, but this doesn't change the main thrust of your argument: it's still completely impossible. The Senate was always designed as a bulwark against democracy, and it works.
Pure speculation: the oligarchs spread their political support among multiple officeholders. As they see their bets on Trump and MAGA congresspeople going sour, they will issue the Impeach order, and within a week or ten days, new leadership will be in place: Pres, VP, Speaker. These guys didn’t get rich by waiting and watching; they will actively seize the moment to save their fortunes, and that will benefit the general economy as well. What do you think?
I fear you give said oligarchs too much credit. What you outline would be the smart play, but they're mostly an example of the Dunning Kruger effect. Excess power corrupts the capacity to reason. That said, no less than Leonard Leo is behind one of the lawsuits seeking to invalidate Trump's tariffs.
'Republicans' HAVE enjoyed full-throated voting support of a plurality of Americans for decades. MORE ppl deliberately chose this path in the recent elxn, apparently b/c they chose not to believe the bald racist rhetoric, but the obvious lies about grocery prices.
Sadly, democracy and patriotism are completely dead letters; a plurality of Americans is just as corrupt as the president they deserve.
The crazy thing is you still see otherwise rational-seeming people say things like, "Yeah, Trump's terrible, but Kamala would have had us in WWIII by now." And they really believe it. Based on what, I can't imagine. The right-wing media fever dream, I can only assume.
“Dornbusch’s Law” has, in the case of Trump, accelerants not normally encountered in a “regular order” economic system.
The depth and magnitude of corruption displayed by the current administration makes it increasingly vulnerable to the whims of enablers. The recent Middle East Shakedown Jaunt is just one example. The Qataris are already enraged by the Witkoff sellout associated with the US “hostage” release, as are the Israelis, etc.
Who thinks the Qataris are so unsophisticated as to not have hard evidence of the demands by the Trump clan as to what Dear Leader requires in Tribute (in this case, that plane)?
Who feels the UAE shoveling cash into the Trump crypto scheme via Witkoff’s snot nosed kid has no hard evidence being maintained by any number of foreign players, up to (and especially including) China?
Who is confident that the Signalgate crowd has outplayed all these powers that have developed compromising evidence into an artful cudgel to be employed when a tool (Trump and Co.) fail to provide a sufficient return on investment?
Paul’s analysis focuses on collapse of investor faith. I feel it ti be just as likely that a coordinated action by players tired of the Trump follies (ala’ Carney) get together to strategically inspire capital flight. It worked before regarding inspiration of “yippy”ness in the bond market. Imagine what can be done with a little more planning and increased weariness with US dysfunction.
Either way… no one I know in my circle is taking a hard/fast collapse anywhere near as serious as I feel to be warranted.
The Edward Jones types keep on with their “Well, historically…” chin stroking BS.
Man I can see the logic of your statements. What do you think is a reasonably safe bet given the scenarios described? Buy euros, Swiss francs? Short term treasury money market?
I sold all my stocks, bought short term treasury money market and am discombobulated given the heretofore unseen US political landscape.
What if there was a Treasury auction and no one came to buy?
The downgrading of US debt has implications which can ripple through investment policies ... pension funds have clear guidelines related to debt instruments and their ratings ... as do collateral accounts used to fund business lines of credit.
Worse yet, what if many had to SELL what's in their portfolios?
With no buyers the FED will always buy ("lender of last resort"), who puts it in their books as asset, and finance it by creating money. In the long run this is a money printing machine which drives up inflation. Ask Zimbabwe, Turkey, Argentina, ...
None of the cases of those countries are comparable. While it is true that that mechanism of potential hyperinflation is relevant in the long run, there are other mechanisms that can easily prove disastrous much more quickly.
“What if there was a Treasury auction and no one came to buy?”
The financial system in the US would collapse well before that point!
Even while there are still market participants with an interest in buying, increasing overall reluctance in the market to buy US treasuries means that a higher effective interest rate will have to be offered in order to sell them all.
That implies a decrease of the resale value and (correspondingly) the book value of all the old treasuries and other fixed-rates assets that banks and and other financial institutions already own.
If that were to happen quickly and in a big way and with no intervention by the FED (i.e. the assumption in this scenario is: the FED is not making use of its power to create dollars out of thin air in order to buy treasuries with them), it would create doubts about the continued viability of banks (and other financial institutions) that have significant exposure, resulting in bank runs. Again assuming no market intervention, there would be too many banks at the same time with this kind of problems, so that the last-ditch efforts of trying to stabilize things would fail, the county’s financial system would essentially collapse, and much of the economy would come to a sudden stop until bankruptcy proceedings have sorted through the worst of the messes.
Therefore, clearly, the FED would have to intervene to TRY to stabilise things. I emphasise “try” because I have severe doubts about how well that particular kind of intervention can possibly work in a scenario where the driver of the crisis is a sharply increased reluctance on the part of international investors to invest in the the US or even to remain invested:
Going back to first principles of arithmetic, the total sum of dollars that are sold for foreign currencies (for example by international investors who want to reduce their exposure to the future of the US) is always equal to the total sum of dollars that are bought with foreign currencies (for example by importers who buy goods abroad, and by international investors who increase their total investments in the US).
Now the overall trade balance of the US is negative, and there is no way for it to quickly reach a positive value that is big enough to be relevant in relation to investment-related financial flows. (There is a way though for it to become zero quickly: That is if the financial system in the US collapses completely.) That implies that the international financial flows would need to be balanced out in some way that is not primarily about changes to the balance of trade. One way in which that can happen is that rising interest rates in the US could make the country more attractive for foreign investments. However we are assuming in this scenario that the FED is intervening in the market to prevent that from happening to the extent that market forces would (if allowed to act freely without intervention) increase the interest rates. Another theoretical possibility is a concerted action of central banks. The FED certainly couldn’t do it alone, not for any significant length of time, given that the foreign currency reserves of the US are only somewhere around 35 billion USD. Therefore my conclusion is that a market intervention by the FED to prevent the US financial system from collapsing can succeed only if supported very significantly by central banks of countries that the US government is currently angering with their tariffs policy. Would those international central banks take such significant action to save the US financial system because in doing so, they’ll be averting a financial crisis that would also adversely affect their own countries? Maybe. But I wouldn’t want to bet on that in a significant way. Especially considering that those international central banks would need to justify to their stakeholders why they’re essentially funding a toxic foreign government’s fiscal irresponsibility!
So what would happen in the absence of a concerted action of international central banks e.g. vowing to do whatever it takes to prevent the dollar from falling more than 20% below its value on 23 May 2025?
The value of the dollar would not fall to zero of course. But it would fall until dollars are so cheap that financial flows balance out, because enough international investors start buying US assets “because they are currently so cheap in terms of international currencies” (believing —possibly mistakenly— that the dollar isn’t going to fall much further, or making long-term investments e.g. in US real estate that will retain significant value even if the US goes through a period of hyperinflation) and enough international investors stop pulling their investments out of the dollar area since exchanging dollars for “real money” doesn’t yield much “real money” anyway. I would expect that at that point, the value of the dollar would have fallen enough to make most imported goods so expensive from the US perspective that many companies go bankrupt because their supply chains depend on imported goods, then the banks with significant exposure in the form of loans to those businesses and/or their employees go bankrupt, then much of the US financial system collapses due to contagion, then comes hyperinflation.
Oh, great. Not only is my Social Security at risk, my Medicare at risk, my retirement account losing value, but the sweet little cottage I bought with retirement in mind and have been fixing up ever since is going to lose value. At least I still have eyes to see, and what I see ain't pretty.
We are witnessing the fall of the American empire. Trump is the living avatar of a persistent streak of greed and racism in US society. His selfish instincts are a cancer that is dismantling the United States' world leadership, destroying our economy, and turning this into a fascist state.
Well said. I have this recurring idea that we "manifested" Trump to destroy our capitalist empire because, deep down, we are all sick to death of it. As an agent of sickness and destruction, he is just so complete, his justice so darkly poetic, that it can't just be bad luck.
Other empires have met similar fates. At its peak in the 12th and 13th centuries, the Islamic empire was thriving, prosperous and relatively tolerant. Internal strife, corruption and religious bigotry led to its downfall. Like Trump and MAGA, their yearning for orthodoxy contributed to its collapse.
On another subject, the Republican’s budget bill provides, “No court of the United States may use appropriated funds to enforce a contempt citation for failure to comply with an injunction or temporary restraining order….” That makes Trump dictator. It repeals the Bill of Rights. If Trump locks me up for posting this comment, no court could order him to free me. (The language I quoted is discussed in this morning's Substacks of Robert Reich and Heather Cox Richardson.)
This is dictatorship
This is, unfortunately, what roughly 60% of white voters (including 70% of white working class voters and 80% of white evangelical voters) voted for. They did it on purpose with malice aforethought.
Although "on purpose" may be a bit of an exaggeration, in light of their profound ignorance and stupidity.
You forgot spiteful.
Repubs have pulled a bait and switch, and the MAGAts that I know are 100% on board. As long as it owns the libs…
Reported as spam (this comment on multiple threads in the last few minutes) and blocked. [Click on the name then the three dots at the top of the page to report, block, etc.]
But their malice was pretty much racism-based, along with misogyny and hatred of gays/trans, etc. They didn't want to give up their own rights.
Remember the day after Trump was re-elected how Goggle experienced a surge of people asking what Tariffs are?
Yes. The top political priority of 60% of white voters is the preservation of systemic white advantages, and that’s an improvement compared to, say, 1965, when it was more like 80%.
Maybe malice aforestupidity
You know how to connect the dots. Way beyond my pay grade but much appreciated.
>They did it on purpose with malice aforethought.<
No way this is true. The vast bulk of the WWC voters who pulled the lever for Trump are substantially ignorant on all matters related to public policy. They couldn't tell you the difference between a filibuster and Philadelphia.
Which is a big part of the reason we need virtuous elites. For me the biggest and most sobering shock of the last ten years or so has been the realization that there is no inherent "wisdom of the people" —equipped with a sense of decency and armed with common sense—that will save our democracy. No, our Republic must have guardrails, the most important of these in my view being political leaders—those who should know better—who exhibit at least a modicum of concern for the national interest.
One of our two parties still maintains such leaders (no, Democrats are far from perfect, nobody's arguing otherwise!). But the other party doesn't. Hence nominees and top officials like M.T. Greene, Herschel Walker, Peter Navarro, RFK Jr, Jeanine Pirro, Michael Flynn, Kash Patel, Donald Trump, and many, many others. The GOP has devolved into complete and utter lunacy and crankdom. But they win about 50% of our elections. Which is why we're phuccked.
Yes, I think you’re right on all counts. The malice aforethought that I referred to was the desire of most white voters to install a government that will persecute people they don’t like and preserve systemic legal, economic, and political advantages that white Americans hold over the rest of the population. They understand just enough to know that Republicans will help them in that project and Democrats won’t.
Mmm. No. These are low information voters—and i’m being nice. They voted for every sort of bigotry. I guarantee they know nothing of stagflation, the $ as world reserve currency, trade deficits —any of this. Ask them.
It's obviously anti-constitutional, yet we already know that two quislings on the court are in Trump's pocket.
It wouldn't matter if the Court unanimously declares the provision unconstitutional. They'd be spitting in the wind. As Andrew Jackson didn't say (it's a myth), "John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it."
If he goes that far what's to stop the Democrats, Military or Courts from refusing to comply with his Decisions? They can say the same thing back make us comply. With courts unable to take decisions the state governments could oppose the Union and do whatever they wanted. This provision will cause chaos. Is it still in the budget?
The assume that Democratic politicians wont't play hardball and that they'll obey the courts.
Which, honestly, is a decent assumption. The Dems have been bringing a water pistol to a gunfight for so long... They don't realize that we are now in a fight against fascism, and that means that you have to use force to put down the toxic ideology.
Absurd. Not only are they constantly TELLING us that this is fascism, they're also doing what lawmakers in the opposition HAVE to do to fight back as effectively as possible.
And no, as the history of fascism shows, violence is NOT the best way to restore democracy. Just read Gene Sharp's books, if you're serious about fighting fascism, rather than doing what is easiest: cynically criticizing those who ARE standing in the mud fighting back right now...
Seriously? Huh. Lets see…Do you mean besides impeaching Trump, TWICE? While republicans sat on their hands and did NOTHING? If McConnell and republicans had honored their oaths to up uphold and defend the constitution and obeyed the rule of law, then removed Trump from office and declared him ineligible to run for office again, would we be in this mess?
They don't, obviously. They may be lying all the time, but they do know the facts: Democrats have been fighting Trump in the courts ALL the time, ever since he started his illegal presidency.
The courts are the only entity that is standing up to Trump right now. Too slowly IMO, but that is who they are.
That is what Stephen Miller, etc. are currently doing. They make it look like incompetence and ignorance. But it is deliberate. They are giving the Federal Courts the finger.
Jackson is one of the would-be fuhrer's heroes.
Yet he probably knows nothing about Jackson, unless he's heard that Jackson killed many Native Americans (through the Indian Removal Act, which led to the Trail of Tears), and that's why he admires him.
He does know that Jackson was a bigot who defied the judicial branch of government that drumpf wants to abolish. drumpf's tiny mind does hold on to hatred with greater tenacity than to anything else.
"Bigot" is an understatement. Google states, "Andrew Jackson was a slave owner and slave trader. He owned enslaved people for a significant portion of his life, including during his presidency. He actively bought and sold enslaved individuals, not only for labor on his plantations but also for financial gain."
He's got Jackson's portrait in the oval office. Jackson is his "favorite" president.
At any rate, Jackson is much admired by Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, and no doubt the Project 2025 men. If nothing else, that pack of balding old white guys probably love Jackson't wild pompadour! ;-).
We'd be lucky if there were only two. There are, alas, six.
Yet another reason for them to try to sneak it past us at 1am.
I gather the intent is to pass the bill, but it won't be enacted until after the mid-terms.
This sounds horrifying.
Congressional Republicans have always been more blameworthy than Trump, because they refuse to impeach and convict him. But that refusal is passive. Now they are taking an active role in making him a dictator.
Exactly. Headlines should be about the GOP, not Trump, because it's the neofascist GOP that is ACTIVELY installing fascism today - as their ideologues told us they WANTED to do, and for years.
Everybody is watching a clown-puppet-show, gasping and hissing at the puppets, even throwing rotten fruit at them. The golden jumbo jet! The memecoin! Attacking Zelensky! Profaning the Oval Office!
Meanwhile, the puppeteers behind the curtain are taking complete control of the Fed Gov't. And they are deliberately crashing the US and World economy.
Yep. Republicans have refused to take any responsibility for their own role in creating this mess even when democrats tossed them two soft balls, when they impeached Trump, TWICE! Instead, republicans sat on their hands and did NOTHING. If McConnell and republicans had honored their oaths to up uphold and defend the constitution and obeyed the rule of law, then removed Trump from office and declared him ineligible to run for office again, would we be in this mess? I dare say NOT! But instead they bowed, genuflected and kissed the ring! They are fully and forever complicit.
McConnell didn’t have to remove him from office…once McConnell had the articles of impeachment he could have used them as leverage to get things everyone wanted in a compromise bill for Trump to sign along with an agreement from Trump that he would declare “mission accomplished” and drop out of the 2020 race. Politics is the art of the possible and McConnell should have been thinking big instead of small.
It was a crime not to vote to convict. Shameful. Esp. the second time. And McConnell knew it - given his little spiel about letting the courts decide any criminality re Jan. 6.
Exactly. Republicans have refused to take any responsibility for their own role in creating this mess even when democrats tossed them two soft balls, when they impeached Trump, TWICE! Instead, republicans sat on their hands and did NOTHING. If McConnell and republicans had honored their oaths to up uphold and defend the constitution and obeyed the rule of law, then removed Trump from office and declared him ineligible to run for office again, would we be in this mess? I dare say NOT! But instead they bowed, genuflected and kissed the ring! They are fully and forever complicit.
I wasn't referring to the two impeachments during his first term. I was referring to the fact that he has committed uncountable impeachable offenses this term, and the congressional Republicans are responsible for every one of them after the first, which is when they should have impeached and convicted him.
Thanks for clarifying. In any case we agree that republicans have exacerbated the current “trump as dictator on day one” dilemma
Because it is.
The Senate can't have anything in Reconciliation that doesn't relate to the budget, the Byrne rule. The fact they are putting this fascist idea in the bill is terrible nonetheless
This does relate to the budget. Note the wording, "No court of the United States may use appropriated funds...".
There is already talk amongst the Republicans that they will ignore any of the Parliamentarian's rulings that they find inconvenient for their purposes.
Below is the full text of a letter to Speaker Johnson by over 20 Democrats citing the despotic overreach buried in the GOP tax proposal in Section 70302. This provision "would significantly undermine the judiciary’s longstanding and constitutionally grounded authority to enforce contempt citations — a move that would weaken the separation of powers and pose serious risks to the rule of law in the United States."
"This is not merely a procedural concern, and this language has nothing to do with the federal budget. It strikes at the very core of judicial authority that is granted in our Constitution."
https://friedman.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/friedman.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/friedman-letter-opposing-reconciliation-changes-to-court-contempt-powers-21-moc.pdf
It sounds like what Democrats say -- formal, legalistic, polite. They should be SCREAMING!
I like this sentence: "Currently, more than 130 school desegregation orders, ongoing civil rights cases, and critical regulatory cases could become unenforceable under this provision." That's the point of the provision, apart from letting Trump kidnap and deport anyone he wants, citizen or otherwise. without due process. Do the Democrats really think that Johnson will get upset over desegregation orders not being enforced?
No, this is an open letter, almost as formal as a court filing. The SCREAMING needs to be more informal, meaning "everything else they ever say to the public".
Screaming? How will that help?
There are voters you know; cf. my preceding comment. And many of them are not idiot fascists, including some who voted for the fascist last year, and more who equally stupidly refrrained from voting.
AND more importantly IMO, the senate republicans who refused to indict trump after the house impeached him TWICE. The fix was in.
Ooh! A letter! That oughta do it.
It will. What lawmakers are doing is CRUCIAL, whenever a democracy is turned into a fascist regime - as all studies show. We cannot want to reject fascism and then cynically reject basic facts too!
and this is general language, not just applying to contempt citations against the federal government. So that ANYBODY who was ordered to do something by a court - repair a tumbledown building, stop cutting down trees in a state park, pay alimony to an abandoned spouse - could simply refuse to comply, and the court could not order its enforcement.
In short, complete anarchy ... just to protect Trump/Miller/Noem's lawlessness.
No. "Court of the United States" means federal court. The matters you list fall under state law.
Please don't quibble. The concern is broader than that.
The concern is broad and the dangers of a descent into fascism are very real. BUT the existence and relative independence (from the federal government) of state courts are still important positive aspects.
Well, it depends on the state.
I'm sure you are right, but it did seem to me that the proximity of the educational tutorial to a statement like, 'It is still a(nother) body blow to the rule of law was unfortunate. Cries of the heart ought not to be punctuated, IMO.
It's not unfortunate, it's a FACT. If you want a democracy, you have to develop an interest in facts. And when it comes to the law, details matter.
The 10th amendment dance.
Good to know. Sometime you ought to post about it, within, perhaps, some context where the distinctions between Federal and State powers are clearly important. Or contextualize them for us non legal scholars?
They are in a state of perpetual refocus and interpretation as in "On the other hand she wore a glove". If there is anything we have learned over the last 10 years it is that the law is in the eye of the beholder. Him what be holding the power maketh the law.
@Barb Orze follow your own reposts advice
What, Katy? Did you think I was Barb Orze, or like her? I don't see the connection. I don't do reposts, btw, and I'm not a posting professional. Maybe your comment was misdirected.
It literally says “@barb orze” it wasn’t misdirected.
It was to Barb orze.
Fair point - I was wondering about that - though given the 'budget' bill's inclination to mess with state law (e.g. prohibiting any state laws regulating AI), who knows if such a limit is intended. But - choose some other shocking examples, then, such as orders about logging in national parks (before Trump provides a permit), or blocking access to navigable waters, or interfering with diplomatic immunity of some countries.
It is still a(nother) body blow to the rule of law.
As if the minions would care which court was affected. They won't.
The GOP lawlessness. Let's finally get real! This isn't the work of a few (rather ignorant) individuals, it's the work of neofascist ideologues who have taken over the Grand Old Party.
Exactly. Republicans sold their souls and the Grand Old Party to the devil. As I recall, the democrats lobbed republicans two soft balls, when they impeached Trump, TWICE! Instead, republicans sat on their hands and did NOTHING. If McConnell and republicans had honored their oaths to up uphold and defend the constitution and obeyed the rule of law, then removed Trump from office and declared him ineligible to run for office again, would we be in this mess? I dare say NOT! But instead they bowed, genuflected and kissed the ring! They are fully and forever complicit.
Since their efforts to corrupt the Judicial Branch (semi) failed, they are going to destroy it instead.
Evil!
It's even worse. The provision is retroactive! "whether issued prior to, on, or subsequent to the date of enactment of this section." https://www.justsecurity.org/113529/terrible-idea-contempt-court/
What!? Does that mean that ALL the state court rulings are now by definition annihilated... ?
We're looking squarely at the economic impact of our institutions failing utterly and enabling dictatorship. Capital flight has just begun.
Does it not require a Constitutional Amendment to change the Constitution?
It requires a constitutional amendment to formally change the Constitution, but judicial and legislative actions can have the effect of changing the Constitution. Any Supreme Court interpretation of a provision of the Constitution may have the effect of changing it, because the Court's decision may result in a provision meaning something that it did not mean before.
But it can do more than that. The Supreme Court's decision on section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which prohibits insurrectionists from holding any federal or state office, virtually repealed that provision by interpreting it to require Congress to invoke it. That's why we now have a president in office whom the Constitution prohibits from being in office.
If the House bill becomes law and federal courts cannot hold federal officials in contempt, that will also have the effect of amending the Constitution. It will in effect repeal the Bill of Rights -- no more freedom of speech or religion, no more due process of law, no right to trial by jury, etc., etc.
Damn. We are in trouble.
You're just now figuring that out?
I figured it out a long time ago. I was reacting to yet another scenario that makes the struggle for democracy harder although still not impossible.
A serious SC should point that out and then nullify this provision in the bill.
That being said, when the Nazis grabbed power, they just ignored the Constitution and created their own legal system, in parallel. So sometimes fascists do change the Constitution (Orban did, in Hungary) but that's only possible AFTER you control Congress entirely (two thirds majority), so as long as that's not the case, fascists can just... ignore it.
Declaring that the US President is above the law, as SCOTUS recently did, is unconstitutional. The Constitution IS the Law, and no man or woman can contravene it without a Constitutional Amendment.
But somehow the Judicial Branch and the other two Branches accepted this unlawful ruling. I don't understand that at all.
SCOTUS did get a bit sneaky, saying that everybody else must follow the Constitution, meaning (I guess) Stephen Miller, the DOJ, etc. But then they backtracked and said the President had amazing, almost magical Pardon powers! Oh, and the President can accept payment for pardons. And once the dust settled, everyone seemed to forget the whole thing.
And when SCOTUS naively and unwittingly gave Trump immunity, they did so at their own peril. He’s proving he’s above the law by ignoring court orders and openly criticizing the Court
Can SCOTUS declare the entire BBB unconstitutional, or only this paragraph?
Courts can declare parts of statutes unconstitutional. But see my comment above.
Prohibiting the enforcement of court orders has got to have constitutional problems, even if the statute applies only to federal courts.
Yes, of course it does. It repeals the Bill of Rights, as I noted in my initial comment. (By the way, when I posted it, I did not intend to hijack Paul Krugman's post, which was about economics, if I recall.) But the question is whether a court declaring a statute unconstitutional will any longer have any effect.
What in the world does such a blatantly unconstitutional violation of separation of powers have to do with budget reconciliation, which is the narrow purpose of a bill that can't be filibustered? I suspect that there are countless other absurd policy dictates having nothing to do with the budget buried in their 1000-page midnight special.
Noone in Trump inner coven gives a damn about the courts and they are right as no judgements against the 2025ers are being properly implemented /adhered to by Government at disUSA federal. Options left seem to me to be States take full charge (disUSA is really 3-5 separate entities) or a carnation coup by the armed forces (as per Portugal 1970s)
Read Gene Sharp's books. MUCH better options are available for "we the people" to fight back. And no violence needed.
If I was a senator I would be asking the Congressional Parliamentarian regarding this clause in a reconciliation bill. I expect it won’t last.
In the words of a wiser entity than I - Bender of Futurama - "Yep; we're boned."
My worry—expectation—is that Trump doesn’t do enough damage to reap his just reward, and his responsibility for what damage he does is lost in a haze of zone flooding, propaganda, and scapegoating. Too many people are deeply corrupted. Epistemologically corrupted. Willfully corrupted.
Trump accepts a $400,000,000 bribe from Qatar and his approval rating goes UP 2%! That proves we are not longer a serious country and that we collectively deserve some serious consequences.
Or it might be a kind of window into how the MAGA base thinks: it's 'manly' to use your power to grab stuff and 'manly' to do what you want, when you want to whoever you want. Ergh.
Or it means the pollsters are playing games.
it means Republicans control the media
I keep coming back to this quote:
"People don't want to *be* informed, they want to *feel* informed."
—Roger Ailes, designer of Fox News
👆🎯
"Trump accepts a $400,000,000 bribe from Qatar"
FWIW, if you're talking about that 747, it turns out it wasn't a gift, but perhaps someone taking advantage of President Dotard:
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/05/very-confused-old-man-given-test-ride-by-dealership-thinks-car-is-actually-a-gift
I suggested on my own Substack that it may have been a shakedown of the Qataris to keep shipping lanes for their oil open. I have no proof one way or another: bribe or shakedown.
The plane is a gift to the US people. Which means that with 340 Million people, you were bought for just over One Dollar a head.
And when Trump asked Putin to hack into Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2016, instead of his approval numbers going down, Putin's approval numbers (among Republicans) went up.
Yeah.
My worry is that the Republicans in Congress are so infected with MAGA that they allow this travesty to continue.
That's less a "worry" than a certainty. I think that ship has sailed
I'd really hoped they had some sense that they were about to shoot themselves and the country in the foot
They also think you can fix the budget with a chain-saw.
I have been thinking along the same lines. All the BS distracts us and obscures the real goals of this administration.
The billionaires behind this destruction claim they will have completed projevt 2025 by July 4? 3026? Total dictatorship, destruction of the “ administrative state, rule of law, Evengelical rule( which we have mot yet seem much of unless you have read about that. Not prettier. There is celebration planned for that day, probably with the military hosting . They are plugging along , seemingly with no problem or deterrence. I can assure anyone this all has shortened my life!
I just got back from a trip to Amsterdam and Amiens. Not long before I left, I read two books, Good Reasonable People by Keith Payne and The Violent Take It by Force by Matthew D. Taylor. Mr. Payne, a psychology professor at UNC Chapel Hill, discusses how people think about the world and says that most of us want to believe that we and our groups are "good reasonable people" and goes on to discuss the psychology behind that. Early in the book he states that most people go through life trying to make sense of the world as best they can. When I read that, my first thought was yeah, but if you are viewing the world through the lens of ignorance, your conclusions are going to leave a lot to be desired.
Mr. Taylor is a religious studies scholar and expert in independent charismatic Christianity and Christian nationalism (description on the dust cover). His book is deeply disturbing to me. He describes how people like C. Peter Wagner, Paula White, Cindy Jacobs and others managed to convince independent, charismatic evangelicals to support Trump, and how they were deeply involved in the events of January 6th.
At the beginning of TVTIBF, Taylor explains that what we call the evangelical community is not one homogenous group. He divides them into four groups based on whether they are denominational or independent and non-charismatic or charismatic. Evangelicals that are "charismatic" believe in things like speaking in tongues and the laying on of hands and faith healing. The people that Taylor writes about also believe in a hierarchy of demons and that Christians are required to battle these demons. It was a lot for me to get my head around. To be blunt, these people scare the hell out of me. They are batshit crazy, but they know how to organize and motivate their followers to action. They also have a world-wide presence and believe that God wants them to dominate the world.
Both books offer some insight into how some people have managed to turn Christianity on its head and some of the ways in which our democracy is threatened from within by people that think God is on their side.
The reason I mentioned I just got back from a trip is that while I was in Amsterdam, I did not see one homeless person, nor did I see anyone panhandling on the streets. I did see a few people panhandling in Amiens, but not many. It has always puzzled me how so many people in America can claim to be Christian while eschewing the basic values of Christianity itself. Christian nationalists have very little to do with Christianity; they want to maintain the historically privileged status of white Christians in our society at the expense of everyone else, and that is why they support Trump and believe he is their King Cyrus.
Thank you for this insightful information. One of my best friends has been visiting Copenhagen, Scotland, Sweden and Croatia for the past six weeks and she has also remarked about the visible difference between our country and others regarding the absence of homelessness. Additionally, they have cleaner streets, great transportation systems and a greater sense of security and community while Americans are seeing the increasingly dangerous rise of poverty and loss of medical assistances. It’s heartbreaking to watch Trump’s pundits repeatedly refuse to answer questions in front of Congress while they are passing bills to promote his agenda.💔
There are about 17,000 homeless people in Amsterdam. Panhandling and begging are forbidden in the city (per APV) and these regulations are enforced. There is a lot of pick-pocketing.
About the same number of people in Amsterdam are addicted to hard drugs.
Thank you for the information..
There is something perversely appropriate about completing the destruction of American democracy by the nation’s 250th anniversary. What an accomplishment.
If our resistance is effective, and each of us is trying in our own ways, there will be something glorious in saving American democracy by our 250th anniversary. I have no easy answers, for there are none. However, when our nation was founded, estimates say that a third of colonists opposed independence from England, a third favored independence, and a third did not care one way or the other.
Like that TV show 2 & 1/2 men.
Hasn't done my longevity any favors, either.
Yeah.
The media environment is as bad as it's ever been - possibly worse, because even in the Gilded Age people usually weren't kidding themselves that media sources were reactionary rags owned by and working for the rich, whereas today the consensus reality remains that the media is "liberally biased." I have no idea *how* the fuck to snap people out of it, and I can't see how it doesn't continue to wreak havoc on the political system.
Speaking with Hayek, the USA are on the Road to Serfdom! Right-wing collectivism is as anti-liberal as left-wing.
Trump may have to use command-economic tools to limit the damage of his decisions.
Those won't help much per history.
None of that stuff will drag disUSA put of the pit Dump Dumb Donny is creating for y'all
“Losing any significant part of that money would force interest rates higher. You have to think that fears of a sudden stop are helping to drive up long-term rates, which keep hitting new highs:”
We’ve been losing a lot of foreign investment since Trump was reelected. Capital outflows have exceeded inflows since Trump was reelected. His saber rattling of invasions of our allies, and his mystical tariff math has led foreign investors and governments to realize our president has a few bats flying around the attic; and that’s my diplomatic response.
Not to mention, his weaponization of the DOJ and FBI have led to our loss of the rule of law, which is a big problem for foreign governments and companies. Japan has said they won’t support any Trump agenda that harms China, and they aren’t renewing their matured treasury’s anymore; a sign of bad things to come.
And as far as US companies bringing investment back to the US. Let’s look at Apple. For example, in 2017 they were investing $400 billion in the US. It became $350 in 2022, and just a few months ago it mushroomed to $500 billion. And in the end, they haven’t invested ONE DOLLAR so far.
That said, given the economic climate and the uncertainty of the Trump agenda, I wouldn’t expect any companies to actually start digging foundations for their new plants and infrastructure; at all.
Additionally, when you consider that tourism is expected to decrease by approximately 30-35% this year, we will be running much higher deficits with less tax revenue to cover the debt, so expect interest rates on Treasury’s to rise significantly.
Bottom line, I don’t see market conditions getting better any time soon. In fact, every time Trump opens his mouth, he makes the situation even more uncertain, and worse! IMHO…:)
Paul mentions the housing market. My recent observations are that we are already feeling the shift to a buyers market. For the 11 years I have lived in our MA neighborhood, homes have sold within four days, with multiple offers and always at or above the asking price.
The last two condos to sell took 4 months. And now, for the first time in that 11 years a unit that was "priced right" just had a significant price drop. The Open Houses are not attracting viewers. The condo is beautifully staged, very well priced and in a "much desired" neighborhood. The market is stalling out here.
You mentioned tourism as suffering. I think those numbers will start rolling in as we see the results of Canadian "snowbirds" staying away. And the "high season" in Maine and Cape Cod may not be so high. Travel to the U.S. is being viewed as unsafe and expensive! And then there is the political perception...
I have relatives in Florida with properties on the market. Nothing is moving for them. A deal which was headed for a closing was cancelled by the buyer - worried about the chaos of the economy. A snapshot of the change is on Zillow. Select a town, look at the number of properties for sale and look at how long they have been listed.
The economic ripple effect of the MAGA moves - fascistic and financially stupid - will become a Tsunami of Suffering. We ain't seen nothin' yet.
Agreed, and well said. I live in Miami, and the market is grinding to standstill. Like you opined, the average sale cycle is four months or more, with significant price reductions. And it’s about the get worse…:)
Construction, rebuilds, and additions are plummeting, too. We held off on necessary work on our house after the election because of the uncertainty. We're afraid to spend that kind of money given the current mess.
And when the crisis hits, you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be nary an adult to be found in the room of the tRump regime. tRump will be listening to the likes of Peter Navarro or whatever his secret identity is at that time.
Agreed! His alter ego is Ron Vara…:)
who would you identify as the adults currently in the room?
There are none and there will be none. It is the only lesson the Orange Imbecile came out of his first term with.
He makes the situation more uncertain to reasonable people who hear what he says. I saw in the news today that the government is no longer putting what Trump says on their web site. They're putting up selected video clips instead.
Unbelievable!
Ah, video clips ! Like he showed the South-African president.
It is not clear, "And as far as US companies bringing investment back to the US. Let’s look at Apple. For example, in 2017 they were investing $400 billion in the US. It became $350 in 2022, and just a few months ago it mushroomed to $500 billion. And in the end, they haven’t invested ONE DOLLAR so far." Could you please elaborate?
Apple has been saying for the last five to seven years, that they would make hundreds of billions in investments in the US. Yet, they make the announcement to please Trump, but have not even broken ground for any of the manufacturing plants they agreed to build, nor have they hired thousands of additional workers.
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/04/apple-commits-430-billion-in-us-investments-over-five-years/
https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/apple-to-invest-500-billion-in-us-facilities-and-teams
There’s a lot to unpack here!
“But in any case, the important point here is that “when a country has a vibrant economy” is key. And this is all the more true when it comes to a country at the top of the global economic system.”—EZ
Agreed! Yet, isn’t that exactly what Biden handed Trump in January? We had a booming economy, and inflation was getting under control at 2.3% year over year, after he inherited a nightmare from Trump’s first administration.
Furthermore, our economy was the envy of the world, including China. And regardless of the initial 20% increase from the initial inflation; which had to do with supply chain issues after Covid ended. And look at our economy now?
Secondly, Trump inherited a robust economy in his first term, and ignored COVID. He knew it was a respiratory virus, and refused to alert the public because he didn’t want to shock the markets. He stated as much to Bob Woodward in an interview in January 2021, before the markets tanked in March.
Not to mention, how despicably he handed the plague. He refused to take responsibility, and when it got out of control, blamed the scientists like Fauci, China (kung flu), or a democratic hoax. Instead, he peddled snake oil cures, and undermined his own experts, even suggesting that masks didn’t work!
Additionally, he also refused to release the National Reserve of PPE’s, respirators and ventilators to the states, causing them to compete for limited supplies at ten times the cost. Not to mention, in 2018, he disbanded the National Security Global Health Unit, saying it was unnecessary, and two years later we had COVID. Im not suggesting COVID was the end result, but I am suggesting we could have been better prepared had he kept it in place.
Is this what you call leadership? Is this the guy you want next to you in a Fox hole when your life is on the line? Moreover, government estimates establish that Trump’s ineptitude caused an additional 500,000 to a million US deaths, and made the virus last longer than necessary, especially after he refused to allow the government to ship test g kits to the states, his belief that if no one is tested, then the disease will just disappear on its own.
“You know what the funny thing is? That I was arguing in parallel with you with another person in another post. And he argues just the opposite - that trade deficits don't turn into debt.”—EZ
I’m not saying that foreign investment causes debt, it doesn’t! Our deficits and surplus’s determine our debt. Foreign investments in the treasury markets allow us to service our debt at a lower interest rate. When foreigners invest in the US, it means we are at the top of the global economic system; however, this is coming undone; the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world is ending as a result of Trump’s grand master plan; whatever the hell it is! Great strategy so far!
“But in any case, the important point here is that “when a country has a vibrant economy” is key. And this is all the more true when it comes to a country at the top of the global economic system. It is therefore very important for a country to maintain its position as close to the top of the global system as possible. That's why the struggle to be as high as possible is worth the bankruptcies and rising prices of consumer goods. All of these are just collateral factors in the struggle. But the goal is to maintain dominance. If the US wins, it continues to enjoy all the benefits of its position. If it loses… there will be many more bankruptcies, price hikes, etc.”—EZ
Yes, the goal is to maintain dominance, but we aren’t holding and of the cards. We could have had Trump united all our allies against China; instead he alienated them and sent them straight into China’s hands. Both Japan and S. Korea have been recently been meeting with the Chinese. For decades, China has been trying to make better trade deals, but island territorial disputes made it impossible. Yet, recently Japan told Trump they wouldn’t agree to any trade deals that hurts China, and they are no longer renewing their $1 trillion in treasuries; instead, they are just letting them mature, and moving the money back overseas? Tell me, is this your idea of winning against China, because to me, it suggests the opposite?
And as far as farm and corporate bankruptcies being worth it, as well as food prices increasing if we ultimately win the trade war is a ridiculous argument. This isn’t a ZERO SUM GAME. We don’t need to cause pain in order to win. What we need is a strategy and allies.
In fact, Biden’s CHIP ACT and his infrastructure bill were doing that for America; bringing manufacturing in key industries back to America, with high paying jobs. Instead, Trump is ending both, and replacing it with a “concept” of a plan to defeat China in a trade war; details to come, while our economy is teetering on the brink!
Additionally, have you noticed recently that treasury bond yields have increased substantially? The 30 year bond yield is at 5%. The 20 year yield is 4.8%! We haven’t seen these high yields since the 70’s. And this is all o Trump for his tariffs and the uncertainty and instability he is causing daily.
Bottom line, we agree that we need a strategy to defeat China’s long-term plans of global domination, yet everything Trump is doing is producing the opposite results.
He took the reins of the government and a great economy twice; and destroyed them in a NY minute! And if the goal is dominance, don’t believe manufacturing higher interest rates to service the debt, helps this goal or helps it. Debt destroys super powers, and with his new budget for 2026, he will be adding $3 trillion a year to an already bloated ($1.8 trillion deficit), meaning we will increase the deficit by 150%, and pay much higher interest to service it; undermining our ability to keep our military readiness, and be in the drivers seat for future economic trade deals.
I hope this helps!…:)
But why? It is clear that they didn’t see reason so far. The tariffs can be such a reason.
I get your point, but apple iPhones and computers require a certain technical skill set that we don’t have here. Migrants aren’t building your IPhone. In fact, most of the migrant type manufacturing has been outsourced by China to places like Vietnam for the last 20 years. And China is the industrial hub of the world right now.
And even if we could assemble the phones and computers in America, we would still have to import all the raw materials and components which have been saddled with high tariffs for everything.
Therefore, the cost to build factories and produce the product are going to go up as much as 30-40%. And this doesn’t include the higher salaries that American unions and workers require.
Additionally, we import most of our steel and aluminum, and we couldn’t scale up production in America to meet that demand even if we tried. We don’t have the industrial base to do so, and it would be five to ten years just to double our capacity.
Bottom line: bringing manufacturing back home will not solve our short-term economic issues, it will only cause a major recession; increase consumer pricing (inflation), while reducing demand, jobs and overall tax revenue. In fact, we are on the road to stagflation should these tariffs continue at this rate indefinitely.
And in the end, the cost to move production to the US is also risky; not just because of the tariffs on everything (building and manufacturing costs), but because of the uncertainty and instability Trump is unleashing on America and the world. IMHO…:)
You are falling for Republican lies. We’ve been adding manufacturing jobs since 2010. And we produce most of the steel we use and the majority of the rest comes from Canada and Mexico and not China. And the majority of the aluminum we consume comes from Canada.
And the jobs we want are value added manufacturing jobs which is what we have been adding. Biden did a great job of implementing the America First agenda and I would say you can check out on Google Maps satellite the semiconductor factory in Taylor, TX…except it is so new it’s not even showing up yet!?! And it’s HUGE!!!! Billions of dollars invested in a semiconductor plant in a very short period of time!!
Gene, I didn’t say we didn’t add manufacturing jobs under Biden, but most manufacturing isn’t coming back, regardless of who is in the office. And I certainly would never regurgitate Republican talking points, you must have me confused with someone else.
My point, we are in a globalized society, and many aspects of manufacturing will not be coming back because even if we wanted to, many of the new domestic manufacturing jobs will be automated. New manufacturing jobs do not require as much human capital as part of the manufacturing process.
And I never said that we import most of our steel from China. That said, we do not produce nearly enough of our steel and aluminum output. We import almost 40% of our steel from Mexico and Canada, as well as 50% of our aluminum needs. US steel production accounts for about 4% of global production.
And China's manufacturing value-added is significantly larger than the US, with a total of $4.66 trillion of total global output in 2023, compared to the US's $1.867 trillion; or 29% of global share, versus 15% for the US. Not to mention, China leads in basic and fabricated metals.
"most of the migrant type manufacturing has been outsourced by China to places like Vietnam for the last 20 years. And China is the industrial hub of the world right now". Okay, so you understand that this is a consequence of US policy over the past 40 years. And you propose to do nothing about it?
"we would still have to import all the raw materials and components which have been saddled with high tariffs for everything" - yes, those tariffs have to be cancelled.
"We don’t have the industrial base to do so, and it would be five to ten years just to double our capacity." - So, based on this, is it better to give up? Who said this is a short-term skirmish designed to please voters? This is an existential struggle.
"it will only cause a major recession; increase consumer pricing..." - Is this too high a price to pay to avoid ultimate stagnation and transition to the role of a second-tier country?
"uncertainty and instability Trump is unleashing on America" - Of course. If the US does nothing, then there is a clear certainty – the US is sinking. China is rising. If the US does something, then there is obviously uncertainty – will we succeed? Will we lose?
To be or not to be?
“So, based on this, is it better to give up? Who said this is a short-term skirmish designed to please voters? This is an existential struggle.” —EZ
“- Is this too high a price to pay to avoid ultimate stagnation and transition to the role of a second-tier country?”—EZ
“Of course. If the US does nothing, then there is a clear certainty – the US is sinking. China is rising. If the US does something, then there is obviously uncertainty – will we succeed? Will we lose?”—EZ
Stagflation and insurmountable debt and deficits are exactly where we are headed, and not short-term, and there is no long term gain here. He doesn’t have a plan to combat China. You certainly don’t accomplish that feat by taxing and alienating all of our allies needed to accomplish that task. With our allies in the East and West, we account for 70% of the world’s GDP.
And these are all self inflicted wounds. We were the economic envy of the world, expected to grow by 2.4%. Instead, we are teetering on the brink of recession. Food and all items are about to see increases we haven’t experienced since COVID.
Our ports are empty and the supply chain is shattered, while all of our allies and best trade partners are making back room trade deals (reconfiguring their supply chains), while trying not to engage Trump; just humoring him, so they don’t get on his bad side before they can decouple from our economy, as much as possible. No one Trusts Trump or even thinks he’s sane.
Trump also says that gas prices are coming down. Thats true, what he fails to mention, is that when crude prices drop below $60 a barrel, so does production; which is now the lowest it’s been domestically in a decade. And the reason for the drop in price isn’t anything Trump did that’s beneficial; it’s because his tariffs have cause global growth which was already stagnant, to fall further. Global demand fell, so supply follows suit!
So if you want to support Trump’s policies that fine, but please explain to me what they are, except causing chaos, and what the end game is?
What exactly do you think he is accomplishing, except to destroy our Treasury markets (Crown Jewels), and our place as the reserve currency of the world. He’s also destroying our tourism; bookings to states, (for the second and third quarter) that rely heavily on tourism is down 35-40%.
Not to mention, the incalculable damage he’s done to our scientific community NIH, CDC, etc…as well as our Universities and Colleges; both gold standards and envies of the world. Do you think with Trump’s meddling it will be this way in a decade? And don’t get me started on due process and the rule of law.
So please, in all your infinite wisdom, explain to me how Trump is making anyone’s life better, except his own, his family, and his compadre’s? And perhaps, everyone in the top 5% that will reap a windfall with his tax cuts.
Wasn't the fall that killed 'em, it was the fast stop.
Jenn said, gravely.
My father's favorite! His term was "the sudden stop" RIP, Dad your children love you.
Deceleration trauma
Unplanned high g deceleration.
Terminal velocity of a human body at 32'/sec squared = 180 mph
I'm not sure I want to know how you knew that... 🤔 😉
It was after the water temperature survivability experiments.
Perfectly described.
Paul
Your description is terrifying.
Please, for your readers, describe what happens personally to everyone when this sudden stop occurs, because it will. We are no longer a country that others want to carry our debt.
Japan, I believe holds $1T of our debt and European countries with Canada hold billions.
This Canadian will never buy another American product (short of dire necessity. I confess to buying once since Feb; it was a bag of walnuts - EU; send walnuts!). I will never, ever travel to or in the USA again, and will never invest there in future. I put my money, fwiw, in Canadians and Europeans.
Incidentally, some Americans might want to check out the nice things that other countries - democracies - have
We've done that. We love Holland and Portugal. Challenges - 1) It's very difficult to acquire foreign citizenship when you're elderly. 2) When your sources of income (IRA and Social Security) are in the US, you can't reach a point where you are unaffected by what the US does (if that's not true, please expound on this). 3) It's hard to move that far from your children.
Of course! And we are in sympathy, truly.
But…it seems most Americans are just blindly voting for cruel GOP austerity OR deliberately choosing autocracy - or both! It does look self-destructive, and maybe they just haven't noticed that it's possible to treat everyone decently while making a good living -?
Exactly our take on things, plus we think they're going to need our help.
In the US it is already difficult to acquire citizenship when you are young. Unless you marry a US citizen or are related to one. The emphasis of US immigration is family reunion. No US Immediate Relative or Family Member? Too bad - no welcome mat.
Several European countries issue long term residency visas to elderly persons: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Malta. The US has nothing comparable (yet is always talking about "reciprocity" when it comes to visas).
If you like The Netherlands*, look into DAFT, the Dutch-American Friendship Treaty visa. It allows U.S. citizens to move to the Netherlands to establish a business, work as a freelancer, or operate as a self-employed individual.
Warning. Emigrating is hard, in every regard.
* Since 2020 the Dutch Government prefers you call it The Netherlands, as "Holland" only pertains to part of the country.
My favorite quote about the Netherlands was written by a British MTB commander in WWII who stated that "the low countries are not idly named, and sighting the coast was usually synonymous with running aground."
Yes, most of the country is below sea-level.
Portugal! OK!
I'm aware of the situation as far as The Netherlands is concerned. Just lazy typing on my part.
I sometimes read a blog written by Dutch people who relocated to Portugal. They love it there.
Well, my wife just bought a raffle ticket for a house on the southern coast. We'll see what happens.
I understand and salute your courage
How might this nightmare affect current Social Security beneficiaries, and the future of Social Security?
I saw a post/article of several about Nazi Germany in The Jacobin that is difficult to find now. The German companies that did business with the Nazis faced a market drop of 60% immediately after WW II. However, most are still in business & rather successful today (that's the "eventually" that PK is referring to?). However, the holders of German government securities were completely wiped out. Sophisticated foreign investors who know the serial bankrupt's history can see the writing on the wall. Babylon Berlin in a Hipster Historian trailer video looks eerily reminiscent.
Don't forget China. They're up there with Japan in holding our debt.
The reason the rest of the world would cease to trust the full faith and credit of the US is not Trump -- it's the people who vote for him. They are both irresponsible and reckless and therefore undeserving of the world's trust, because they refuse to learn from history
Agreed. Biden was able to re-earn the trust of other nations by saying that Trump was an anomaly. His re-election has shattered that work. Now the USA is a nation that can elect fascists even after knowing that they are fascist. And THAT is not a good business partner, or a good ally, or a good place to vacation.
And the problem is that even Trump 1.0 wasn't really an anomaly. He was building on trends that were already there under the previous Republican.
As a foreign blogger I was following at the time said, electing Obama after eight years of Dubya made America look like it was finally checking itself into rehab. Electing Trump after eight years of Obama made it look like the perpetual fuckup who might sometimes try to clean up, but would always fall off the wagon sooner or later.
That was the *first* Trump administration. Now we've brought him back *again,* and look where we are.
There's a trend of America spiraling downwards and refusing to do the work to straighten itself out that goes back... heck, arguably as far as Watergate, maybe even McCarthy, but that just became impossible not to see in the 21st century.
Yes.
Who knew that Diaper Don could destroy a vibrant economy and great nation in less than six months. If we weather this crisis I can say that I will never vote for a republican for the rest of my life. They are complete cowards and sell outs!
I never have—except for a very few local officials a long time ago
Asset destruction and bankruptcy are Trump's stock in trade. It's who he is.
It's an even bet Don is all in on red.
As a non US human, you guys are well into FAFO territory- good luck with that !
Something about micro biomes may become of assistance (?)
This may be no bad thing, as it could destroy public support for Trump and lead to his downfall. OTOH, it may cause him to go more extreme and do something as a distraction from domestic crisis. Rather like Argentina invading the Falklands in 1982, a last desperate attempt by the junta to stay in power.
Downfall? How? We don't have a parliamentary system where resignations/a no confidence vote can force snap elections or something like that.
Trump and the Republicans *know* none of this is popular with a majority of Americans. Republicans, and most their policies, haven't enjoyed the support of a majority of Americans nationwide for decades. They don't care, because they don't actually need the support of a majority of Americans because of things like the Electoral College and partisan gerrymandering of Congressional districts. Not to mention the fact that a majority of their voters have been inside the Republican media echochamber for so long they wouldn't know how to "get out" even if they wanted to. When things start to *really* economically go badly for Republican voters (especially seniors) Faux Noise will simply "ramp up" the scapegoating of others, and Republican voters will believe it. This isn't unique to Trump. Many of their voters have believed all the scapegoating and lies since Reagan's "welfare queens."
Lastly, if you're talking about impeachment and removal, sorry, it's just not mathmatically likely at all I have no doubt the GOP loses the House in 2026, and Trump's impeached in late January/early February 2027. However, conviction and removal by the Senate is a *very* high bar. Democrats could take control of the Senate too, and still not have the 3/4 majority votes for conviction and removal.
When the economic destruction hits home, I suspect even a lot of the MAGAnuts will start to rethink their position. We're well past the 100 day mark, so at this point, Trumpkopf and Faux Noise (good one BTW 👍) won't be able to blame "the libs".
Thus, I believe we'll see a blue tsunami in 2026. Then maybe we can start to see some accountability.
If we even have midterms and if they are not severely compromised by all the known republican dirty tricks
If we don't have midterms, that will likely trigger a significant uprising. As for being compromised, the question will of course be to what extent.
I think we'll take the House. I'm not sure there are enough Republican senators up for re-election, and it looks like we're losing Fetterman, whether he stays a Democrat or not.
That's what I was thinking. There comes a point when the lies get hard to sell.
It's only a 2/3 majority in the Senate, not 3/4, but this doesn't change the main thrust of your argument: it's still completely impossible. The Senate was always designed as a bulwark against democracy, and it works.
My hope is that he takes that brand new Air Force 1 out for spin without getting the defense electronics installed and someone shoots it down.
Minor point to the force of the argument, but it's a 2/3 vote to convict and/or remove.
Pure speculation: the oligarchs spread their political support among multiple officeholders. As they see their bets on Trump and MAGA congresspeople going sour, they will issue the Impeach order, and within a week or ten days, new leadership will be in place: Pres, VP, Speaker. These guys didn’t get rich by waiting and watching; they will actively seize the moment to save their fortunes, and that will benefit the general economy as well. What do you think?
I fear you give said oligarchs too much credit. What you outline would be the smart play, but they're mostly an example of the Dunning Kruger effect. Excess power corrupts the capacity to reason. That said, no less than Leonard Leo is behind one of the lawsuits seeking to invalidate Trump's tariffs.
'Republicans' HAVE enjoyed full-throated voting support of a plurality of Americans for decades. MORE ppl deliberately chose this path in the recent elxn, apparently b/c they chose not to believe the bald racist rhetoric, but the obvious lies about grocery prices.
Sadly, democracy and patriotism are completely dead letters; a plurality of Americans is just as corrupt as the president they deserve.
Could Americans - possibly - just consider NOT VOTING for authoritarians? Or - is that too big a lift for "we, the people"?
The crazy thing is you still see otherwise rational-seeming people say things like, "Yeah, Trump's terrible, but Kamala would have had us in WWIII by now." And they really believe it. Based on what, I can't imagine. The right-wing media fever dream, I can only assume.
Greenland's in the bag.
Grenada's been done.
Belize, maybe?
Chillingly apt music choice. “Step out of line, the men come and take you away” (without due process).
“Dornbusch’s Law” has, in the case of Trump, accelerants not normally encountered in a “regular order” economic system.
The depth and magnitude of corruption displayed by the current administration makes it increasingly vulnerable to the whims of enablers. The recent Middle East Shakedown Jaunt is just one example. The Qataris are already enraged by the Witkoff sellout associated with the US “hostage” release, as are the Israelis, etc.
Who thinks the Qataris are so unsophisticated as to not have hard evidence of the demands by the Trump clan as to what Dear Leader requires in Tribute (in this case, that plane)?
Who feels the UAE shoveling cash into the Trump crypto scheme via Witkoff’s snot nosed kid has no hard evidence being maintained by any number of foreign players, up to (and especially including) China?
Who is confident that the Signalgate crowd has outplayed all these powers that have developed compromising evidence into an artful cudgel to be employed when a tool (Trump and Co.) fail to provide a sufficient return on investment?
Paul’s analysis focuses on collapse of investor faith. I feel it ti be just as likely that a coordinated action by players tired of the Trump follies (ala’ Carney) get together to strategically inspire capital flight. It worked before regarding inspiration of “yippy”ness in the bond market. Imagine what can be done with a little more planning and increased weariness with US dysfunction.
Either way… no one I know in my circle is taking a hard/fast collapse anywhere near as serious as I feel to be warranted.
The Edward Jones types keep on with their “Well, historically…” chin stroking BS.
Nothing good will come of this.
Thanks for your efforts, PK.
Man I can see the logic of your statements. What do you think is a reasonably safe bet given the scenarios described? Buy euros, Swiss francs? Short term treasury money market?
I sold all my stocks, bought short term treasury money market and am discombobulated given the heretofore unseen US political landscape.
Can you write about Trump stealing money itself? It appears he's strangling the dollar to death in a bathtub and replacing it with his own memecoin.
Don jr was on You Tube hawking gold, citing the uncertainty of the dollar, because of course he was.
Mentions of Grover's bathtub always welcome!
What if there was a Treasury auction and no one came to buy?
The downgrading of US debt has implications which can ripple through investment policies ... pension funds have clear guidelines related to debt instruments and their ratings ... as do collateral accounts used to fund business lines of credit.
Worse yet, what if many had to SELL what's in their portfolios?
Sinister thoughts for a Thursday.
With no buyers the FED will always buy ("lender of last resort"), who puts it in their books as asset, and finance it by creating money. In the long run this is a money printing machine which drives up inflation. Ask Zimbabwe, Turkey, Argentina, ...
Qatar?
None of the cases of those countries are comparable. While it is true that that mechanism of potential hyperinflation is relevant in the long run, there are other mechanisms that can easily prove disastrous much more quickly.
“What if there was a Treasury auction and no one came to buy?”
The financial system in the US would collapse well before that point!
Even while there are still market participants with an interest in buying, increasing overall reluctance in the market to buy US treasuries means that a higher effective interest rate will have to be offered in order to sell them all.
That implies a decrease of the resale value and (correspondingly) the book value of all the old treasuries and other fixed-rates assets that banks and and other financial institutions already own.
If that were to happen quickly and in a big way and with no intervention by the FED (i.e. the assumption in this scenario is: the FED is not making use of its power to create dollars out of thin air in order to buy treasuries with them), it would create doubts about the continued viability of banks (and other financial institutions) that have significant exposure, resulting in bank runs. Again assuming no market intervention, there would be too many banks at the same time with this kind of problems, so that the last-ditch efforts of trying to stabilize things would fail, the county’s financial system would essentially collapse, and much of the economy would come to a sudden stop until bankruptcy proceedings have sorted through the worst of the messes.
Therefore, clearly, the FED would have to intervene to TRY to stabilise things. I emphasise “try” because I have severe doubts about how well that particular kind of intervention can possibly work in a scenario where the driver of the crisis is a sharply increased reluctance on the part of international investors to invest in the the US or even to remain invested:
Going back to first principles of arithmetic, the total sum of dollars that are sold for foreign currencies (for example by international investors who want to reduce their exposure to the future of the US) is always equal to the total sum of dollars that are bought with foreign currencies (for example by importers who buy goods abroad, and by international investors who increase their total investments in the US).
Now the overall trade balance of the US is negative, and there is no way for it to quickly reach a positive value that is big enough to be relevant in relation to investment-related financial flows. (There is a way though for it to become zero quickly: That is if the financial system in the US collapses completely.) That implies that the international financial flows would need to be balanced out in some way that is not primarily about changes to the balance of trade. One way in which that can happen is that rising interest rates in the US could make the country more attractive for foreign investments. However we are assuming in this scenario that the FED is intervening in the market to prevent that from happening to the extent that market forces would (if allowed to act freely without intervention) increase the interest rates. Another theoretical possibility is a concerted action of central banks. The FED certainly couldn’t do it alone, not for any significant length of time, given that the foreign currency reserves of the US are only somewhere around 35 billion USD. Therefore my conclusion is that a market intervention by the FED to prevent the US financial system from collapsing can succeed only if supported very significantly by central banks of countries that the US government is currently angering with their tariffs policy. Would those international central banks take such significant action to save the US financial system because in doing so, they’ll be averting a financial crisis that would also adversely affect their own countries? Maybe. But I wouldn’t want to bet on that in a significant way. Especially considering that those international central banks would need to justify to their stakeholders why they’re essentially funding a toxic foreign government’s fiscal irresponsibility!
So what would happen in the absence of a concerted action of international central banks e.g. vowing to do whatever it takes to prevent the dollar from falling more than 20% below its value on 23 May 2025?
The value of the dollar would not fall to zero of course. But it would fall until dollars are so cheap that financial flows balance out, because enough international investors start buying US assets “because they are currently so cheap in terms of international currencies” (believing —possibly mistakenly— that the dollar isn’t going to fall much further, or making long-term investments e.g. in US real estate that will retain significant value even if the US goes through a period of hyperinflation) and enough international investors stop pulling their investments out of the dollar area since exchanging dollars for “real money” doesn’t yield much “real money” anyway. I would expect that at that point, the value of the dollar would have fallen enough to make most imported goods so expensive from the US perspective that many companies go bankrupt because their supply chains depend on imported goods, then the banks with significant exposure in the form of loans to those businesses and/or their employees go bankrupt, then much of the US financial system collapses due to contagion, then comes hyperinflation.
Personally, I have the feeling that the world economy hasn't fully recovered from the 2008 crash.
Oh, great. Not only is my Social Security at risk, my Medicare at risk, my retirement account losing value, but the sweet little cottage I bought with retirement in mind and have been fixing up ever since is going to lose value. At least I still have eyes to see, and what I see ain't pretty.
We are witnessing the fall of the American empire. Trump is the living avatar of a persistent streak of greed and racism in US society. His selfish instincts are a cancer that is dismantling the United States' world leadership, destroying our economy, and turning this into a fascist state.
Well said. I have this recurring idea that we "manifested" Trump to destroy our capitalist empire because, deep down, we are all sick to death of it. As an agent of sickness and destruction, he is just so complete, his justice so darkly poetic, that it can't just be bad luck.
Other empires have met similar fates. At its peak in the 12th and 13th centuries, the Islamic empire was thriving, prosperous and relatively tolerant. Internal strife, corruption and religious bigotry led to its downfall. Like Trump and MAGA, their yearning for orthodoxy contributed to its collapse.