It's almost as if it's unwise to have the entire global economy dependent on a resource that is extracted from one of the most volatile parts of the world and concentrated in the hands of a corrupt oligarchs, especially when that resource is supplied freely by yhe ever-present sun and wind.
The scientists lost the war vs. the evil oil companies because the oil guys were much more ruthless & deceptive, unethical and strident in their efforts. Scientists are smart, mild mannered & ethical but incapable of matching the $$$ & power the oilers bribed the politicians with.
What we need actually is an independent organisation raising environmental taxes world wide. One representing the earth. The only way it can be independent of special interests.
The scientists lost the war vs. the evil oil companies because the oil guys were much more ruthless & deceptive, unethical and strident in their effort." Not especially. They mainly lost to GOP power and it's oil interests and President Undo-liberalism.
In addition, to help clear away the notion of scientific defeat, recent polling from Gallup, Pew Research, and the Yale Program report that approximately 63% of Americans believe the effects of global warming have already begun—matching record highs. About 62% attribute rising temperatures primarily to human activities.
The fundamental christians think this is God's way of ending the world. They believe they will be raptured before it gets too bad and the rest of us will roast. The ones who feel this way will vote for anyone who makes the warming worse more rapidly.
I've heard this out of some of them before and I saw it in 2015 and it scared the vought out of me. I saw it in multiple places over the years. If mump or vought or miller etc had morals ... (my bad, it's impossible). We have atheist "pres.", a very brainwashed "christian" brought up christian and he who wrote project 2025, and a little Jew turned Nazi which is insane to me (I'm a Jew and if I become a Nazi = I'd hope someone would send me to Bellvue). So all this works with the Manchurian novel which no one would believe.
I wouldn't call them "fundamental christians" since they don't obviously practice anything in the bible.
It’s all a grift…the Arab oil billionaires are gleeful. Trump only cares about Trump and power and money. We will have a lot of work to do to bring green energy back…if it’s possible.
I don't think the Arabs are happy at all. Putin on the other hand, is ecstatic. The Arabs who have been spending massive amounts to purchase Trump have gotten rolled in favor of Bibi and his right wing religious zealots.
I don't think Xi is pleased other than watching Trump destroy his biggest adversary.
China is by far best placed to survive and advance from this war.
They have a humongous Strategic Petroleum Reserve, their huge domestic transportation market (including semis) are shifting away from combustion vehicles, they're building out insane amounts of non-gas power plants (wind, solar, hydro, nuclear...and they have coal as a fallback anyway), and their companies are the major suppliers of renewable energy tech for the rest of the world.
Meanwhile, Trump is wasting the US' arms capability and driving the rest of the world into China's sphere.
China has been building out its Strategic Petroleum Reserve for years now, as much to protect itself from any form of international sanctions as in anticipation of any specific problem in the Persian Gulf.
For a while it has been the 400-lb gorilla setting a floor and ceiling of world oil prices by discretionary purchase, filling its expanding SPR when prices were low and cutting back when the price rose. The same low oil prices* that shut down so many Permian Basin rigs in the US were helping to fill up China's stockpile of oil on the cheap. It got even cheaper oil from Venezuela, Russia and Iran, but gets a lot from the regular, unsanctioned world market as well.
___________
*Trump's negotiations with the Persian Gulf producers screwed over US domestic oil producers that depend on higher oil prices for their wells to be profitable.
I'd be interested in knowing specifics about how this current Epstein-Iran War is drawing down China's SPR, as 85% of all that oil bottled up at the Straits of Hormuz was destined for China & Asia.
Putin is not ecstatic. Iran is one of Russia's best allies. Putin is sending drones, Sukhoi aircraft, and missiles to Iran. He's also telling Iran exactly where every one of our warships is. DonyJon is trying to placate him by removing sanctions.
China is the biggest consumer of oil passing through the strait of Hormuz, but also recognized that was a risk and has made contingency plans... which is say, China is still as nefarious as we thought they were in 2024, but they're a competent, nefarious, government.
Somewhere in the department formerly known as "defense," there are probably experts who also have contingency plans. But they are not in charge.
This deliberate disregard for basic risk management makes me worry about the approach to Cuba: Yes, you can cause a state to fail by starving it of resources. But then you have a failed state NEXT DOOR.
Europe will be torn. Russia's shenanigans in the Baltic Sea (shadow tankers breaking data cables, drone swarm shutting down Copenhagen airport, ships carrying dangerous amounts of ammonia nitrate casually wandering along other countries' coasts) has gotten them more pissed off than ever.
Oil climbs over $100/barrel AND Trump pushes to un-sanction Russia?! For this, Vladimir will be happy to fight to the last Iranian (paraphrasing a post I read yesterday).
It may seem like a relative triviality, but unless things change very dramatically and soon, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are going have their Grand Prix cancelled this year (and if they don't, the drivers and teams really should boycott or they all deserve the disaster that may ensue). This may begin to show the absurdity of Arab sportswashing, which has been a huge priority of the regimes. The Arab leaders can not be pleased about any of this.
Well, Saudi Arabia has a pipeline for *its* oil to reach safe Red Sea export terminals. And $100/barrel...with the likelihood of prices rising much higher?! How do you translate "orgasm" into Arabic?
The cross-SA pipeline ("East-West Crude Oil Pipeline") from the oil fields to the Yanbu refinery center and port on the Red Sea has the capacity for 5m bbl/day (Saudi Arabia's fields produced almost 10m bbl/day before these attacks).
The head of the pipeline is within the war zone and is a potential target of Iran directly. There's also the problem of whether the all-too-capable Houthis (Zaida Shia) attack the Yanbu facilities or the tankers on Iran's behalf, or they just stick to targets they think support Israel in any way.
Tens of thousands of us are working on green energy from wind, sun and water.
Norway is over 99% renewable energy and the 10th largest oil exporter. Canada is the 4th largest oil exporting country. They are going to have a huge windfall from the Iran War.
The biggest winner is…Putin. $100 a barrel oil makes it much easier for him to prop up what would otherwise be an increasingly shaky war economy in Russia.
I also saw a headline yesterday that they're studying putting in a geothermal plant in the UK. Our west coast is volcanically active. Shouldn't that be a possibility there?
No idea on that, but here's an excerpt from a BBC article on it. "The UK's first geothermal power plant has been turned on, providing a completely new type of renewable electricity using hot water from underground.
On Thursday morning, the Cornish plant will be switched on after nearly two decades in development which required Geothermal Engineering Ltd (GEL) to drill the deepest on-shore well in the UK.
The water, super-heated by rocks, will help drive turbines to generate electricity for 10,000 homes, but will also provide the UK's first domestic supply of lithium - a critical mineral used in green technology.
The British Geological Survey said it was a 'major step forward' for geothermal but high drilling costs could make replicating the project difficult."
Hmm... 5000 meters deep, which is deeper than traditional geothermal, and the project probably dates from the early advances in deeper drilling this century. (Compare that to the old plants at the Salton Sea, which got productive power plant heat at 1km, then more at 3km.)
"Again learning" is right. I'm old enough to remember a couple years ago when there was a natural gas panic when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started. Yet somehow, we quickly forget this lesson months after each shock.
I'm old enough to remember the oil embargo in the 70s, which is when we SHOULD have immediately started building a good high speed rail system across the US and worked on transitioning to other forms of energy...but the oil, tire and car companies made sure that didn't happen, just like they bought up and destroyed the tram systems in the major cities in the past, to make sure their industries would reap maximum benefits.
An early indication of the fundamental flaws in the structure of the US government was the complete failure to learn from and respond to the 70s oil shocks. This is continuing with the failure to adequately address the global warming problem. If there are any people around in the distant future, they'll use ExxonMobil, not Nazi, as a general slur.
And keep a careful tally of the all the Oil CEO's and senior management who've been gleefully steering us into this apocalypse. When the time comes, and public anger deep enough, they'll all get fair trials. And then the firing squads can commence.
They'll be long gone when the real damage occurs. And at the rate the dumbing down of the public is going, when catastrophe strikes, it will be blamed on witches.
They'll be long gone when the real damage occurs. And at the rate the dumbing down of the public is going, when catastrophe strikes, it will be blamed on witches.
In the 1990s there was a plausible proposal to build HSR connecting the largest cities in Texas (Dallas, Yewstin, San Antonio and Austin), but airline lobbyists—especially Southwest, which would be hurt the most—defeated it.
Seems like there intelligent thing for our country to do would be investing in wind, solar, battery powered transportation, and alternative types of fuel. We would be untethered from big oil and dangerous liaisons. Unfortunately politicians on both sides of the isle have lined their pockets with big oil donations and promises of financial opportunities in the future.
And its not only the oil that closing the straight affects, its also LNG, and all sorts of products that pass through there, like fertilizer that US farmers use lots of, all sorts of petrochemical and plastics products, stuff like polyehtene, benzene—as someone pointed out anything with an “ene” on the end. And as Mr. Krugman pointed out in his Satruday piece, recalling the covid global shipping back up that caused tankers to have to circle and get in line at the Port of Los Angeles and others, which lasted months on end, where container shipping came to all but a complete halt. It’s bad and can get very much worse, unless TACO re-emerges?
Not quite true. The US is currently the largest oil producer in the world. But, of course, market prices are set at the margin and can be dramatically affected by smaller producers withholding supply.
But the easy to extract shale oil is about depleted and we're moving into a phase of Tier II shale oil - much more difficult and expensive to extract ... the U.S. oil production has peaked even at $100 a barrel oil... in 20 years, shale oil will be a disappearing resource. Then what?
Spot on! Trump's great weakness is that he's a pathological liar with an absurdly credulous support base. But his great strength is that he's a pathological liar with an absurdly credulous support base.
This morning oil prices are over $100/barrel. Trump posted rising energy prices are "a small price to pay" for his glorious Trump-ed up war based on lies just like the glorious Iraq war.
Some of us have already learned. People around the world watching this unfold in horror must think the rest of us are a bunch of stupid sheeples who can be hoodwinked by a con man.
Indeed, this is one key reason why Iran is so different than VZ: Trump's voters will believe anything he says because it doesn't effect them, but for Israel this is not a game.
As I recall, in the spring of 2022, after the Ukraine war began, gas in my region went north of $5/gal. Not only was that driven by higher oil prices but in the spring the formulation changes from winter to summer blends and that drives the prices per gallon higher every season for about 6 weeks or so. The demented felon may TACO, but Israel won't. That country wants Iran turned into rubble, no matter the consequences. I think higher gas prices are going to be with us for several months.
The problem for Trump is that all this WILL affect his voters unless they are hermits because all manner of prices will be increasing due to the world-wide repercussions on the cost and availability of energy underlying the supply chains which furnish a great deal of what all his voters consume on a daily basis - everything from food, clothing, microchips in all their electronic toys, the list goes on. To the extent this war fuels at least SOME inflation, interest rates will either not decrease or will increase, affecting mortgages, jobs, the US deficit and so on.
IMHO that has always been one of the reasons for this war. Bibi and MBS kept whispering in tRump’s ear “just go ahead and do it”, but Putin also whispered “if Middle East oil is cut off, I’ve got plenty”. Add to that “When the U.S. burns through their Patriot anti-missile system, leaving none for Europe and Ukraine, Iran still has lots of drones. Ukraine will offer their drone technology to the U.S.. You, tRump, will say yes and send the Ukrainian drone technology straight to me.” This war is a win for Putin.
We’ll see how easy it is to get out of Iran once the U.S. forces exhaust their supply of tomahawks and keep getting repeatedly attacked by drones. Also, the U.S. is beholden to the Israelis who are beholden to the christian nationalists who brokered the deal to make the U.S. and Israel as allied as they are. Also, the market rate on crude oil hasn’t come close to cresting. Some areas in the country are in excess of US$4.50/gallon and more will be on the way, possibly in as little as a week’s time.
According to Google AI, the average price of gas in the U.S. is $3.48 per gallon. It must cost more in Portland because the city is controlled by Bolsheviks.
Dunno because before he said he even goes by his own morals, he doesn't care about anyone but himself. On to Cuba anyway with Rubio at the tip of the spear.
This is from March 5th, so all prices are higher and some are reaching your price point.
According to a Reuters report last week, the Trump administration is apparently going to try to manipulate the market to get oil prices down... Huge skepticism that it could "work" when ultimately the price comes down to supply and demand.
Scott Bessent's Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Shorting Oil Tame Iran Shock? Experts Warn It Can Whipsaw Trend-Following Funds
Did you see how violent he got at reporters when they asked about Russia's support of the Iranians with strategic intelligence? He knows there's no way out of that one.
DOOCY: It sounds like the Russians are helping Iran target and attack Americans--
TRUMP: That's an easy problem compared to what we're doing here. What a stupid question that is to be asking at this time. We're talking about something else.
Thank you. And in addition to the transcript, the video shows just how apoplectic he was when the issue came up. He knows there's no way out for him if Russia backs Iran since he has no choice but to back Russia no matter what.
I don't think that was Trump's plan. I don't think he plans. Unfortunately, I think Krugman was right about the "Warrior Ethos" and Kushner was probably the last person to whisper in Trump's ear. Maybe war with Iran is what it takes for the Trumps to get their shining city on the sea in the former Gaza strip full of Trump towers and golf courses.
I mean, for at least as long as I've been alive, the answer has consistently been "yes." I would like to believe that's finally changing, but it'll be a slow turn.
It's not just Iran, though. It's Saudi Arabia. It's a real sign of how comprehensively corrupt and money-obsessed the United States had become that even after an event like 9/11, no one ever seriously considered giving the Saudis a meaningful amount of grief. The entire "war on terror" was structured to carefully ignore the fact that it was Saudi money, Saudi policy, and Saudi ideology that was breeding all of those jihadist movements worldwide, and instead to focus on Saudi enemies with zero connection to 9/11 like Iraq and Iran. (Yes, the Saudis still bitched about what we did, because let's face it, we did some *powerfully* stupid shit. No we didn't inconvenience them nearly as much as they deserved).
When future historians look at the decline and corruption of the United States, the 9/11 response, even before Trump's "Russia, if you're listening" moment, will be held up as an example of how thoroughly penetrated through corruption leading back to foreign regimes the country had become.
The US is not running errands for Israel. There is a confluence of interest between the two privately and publicly in respect of future economic and political developments in the region.
Look at the regio. Iran is surrounded by countries that have atomic weapons. China, India, Pakistan, Isreal, Russia.
So why cannot Iran have it too? Once the big beautiful bomb is finished, they will realize it is a rather useless item to have. These weapons are only good for threatening.
D is a dictator....he cares not a whit what we think. Right? You think like a democrat....how a 'normal' one thinks. This situation is Id, ego all in one.
Agreed and that's most of us ... They will go after other minorities (what else, we're a country made up of them) next. Cabinet, non-cabinet should self deport.
Yer right, cuz if we know anything it’s that this is a man whose word is his bond and when he’s bought he stays bought and … oh wait! Who are we talking about here? Trump? He’s just as likely to turn about, praise Allah, and bomb Tel Aviv
Putin has material on the leader, and with the release of more material some are saying he has video from Epstein of child abuse. The Isrealis probably know what Putin has. Netanyahu didn't have to pay any bitcoin.
Remember donold hosted all those beauty pageants in Russia. Who was feeding who girls? Putin to donold to Epstein. Or donold to putin? or donal and vlad to Epstein? or was it a 3-way? So many options...pick one.
Every visitor to the then-USSR knew about the mikes. The big mirror in the small room could have a camera behind it. Phonecalls all went through an exchange. Elderly ladies on every level kept watch who came and who went. You really think being aware of all that, people still misbehaved in those rooms - producing "kompromat"?
I'm an American and I care more about Iranians dying than gas prices. I hate what Trump is doing to people. I hate that any American didn't know this would happen. I hate that any American was stupid enough to vote for him even the first time. I'm sorry to the whole world that Americans have let this happen.
He's always been a horrible businessman. It's been plainly obvious for decades. How any American could think he was a good businessman is incomprehensible to me.
Savvy - as in war costs money so let's not do that. For years Mr. Trump was propped up by the media, first by newspapers/magazines, later on especially through The Apprentice. Producers loved having him for a walk-on or a cameo. People who could have contradicted his "success" on TV - it was all in the editing - were muzzled by NDAs.
But you are missing the point I was making. Many 2016 Trump-voters thought he would not go to war (and Ms. Clinton would).
Please do not ask me to explain the fuzzy logic. I am not a USAmerican, I only live in the US.
I think it is dumb to call voters "idiots". Most of them had lost a lot thanks to the thinking that was done at the upper levels, by politicians, economists, bankers, investors. It netted us the crisis of 2008. Which was preventable.
Many people lost their savings, their job, their home. So the idea got hold that this time not a another politician beholden to big money should go to the White House, but a businessman. Then things would be done differently.
The foundations are being laid for the 250-foot tall Victory Arch as we speak … The name of who was defeated can be entered later, but strangely there are both menorahs and minarets in the decorations
The irony of it all is that, when this war (ops sorry ... operation) will be over, gas prices will come down. I'm sure someone would use that as an electoral argument, trying to sell to the voters the derivative of the price curve rather than the actual number.
More likely into them do that they change the government in November. Too bad it’s only March, so this will still get a lot worse before it gets better.
If US citizens really cared about gas prices they would push car gas mileage requirements- current numbers could be 400 mpg cars, 180 mpg diesel trucks with tech from 20 years ago
"..it is only those who have never heard a shot, never heard the shriek and groans of the wounded and lacerated (friend or foe), that cry aloud for more blood, more vengeance, more desolation." William Tecumseh Sherman
Them and the thoroughgoing psychopaths for whom those sounds are music to their ears. Hegseth sounds like he's one of these and Miller looks like he is - Nosferatu in pinstripe.
Definitely, and the desensitization we have now. It is sad, shocking, inhumane, cruel, (fill in the blank) how easy it seems to be for many people to absolutely ignore war and war-like hostilities anymore. There is the “excuse” that most Americans have little to no experience, but what is the reason that too many seem to have little to no humanity?
Healthcare’s gone, citizens are shot for protesting, soldiers in caskets, groceries through the roof… but hey, at least gas prices keep climbing. Truly the land of greatness.
“Five of them — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — supply more than a third of the world’s urea, an important nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly a quarter of another one, ammonia. And they all use the Strait of Hormuz to export their products.
“Which is terrible timing for farmers in the Northern Hemisphere, who will soon need fertilizer to boost their spring crops. Where might they get it? China’s the most obvious alternative, Peter writes. But last year the Chinese government imposed restrictions on the export of fertilizer, in part to shield its farmers from just the sort of geopolitical chaos this war brought on.”
I bought two years supply of fertilizer when he first put tariffs on Canada, I haven't looked at prices, but they have been going up for a while anyway. Shell flour that used to cost $60 is now $90, err, $92. Think I better order more soon - it helps with the creepy, crawly things that like droughts.
Shell flour. That’s diatomaceous earth, right? Good stuff. (As in, fossilized sea shells pulverized to powder. I’ve never heard it called shell flour.)
One has to wonder how this ends. Is it possible to change a regime through air power? Is it possible to make peace with a regime after you've slaughtered its leadership? Have we purchased another 25 years of U.S./Iranian hostility?
Great point, but I'm not so sure that the Emperor cared much about Japanese citizens. In any event, conventional bombing alone didn't force Japan to surrender. It was a combination of (a) the shock of atomic bombing, (b) Russian intervention, and (c) the looming U.S. invasion of the home islands. Nice chatting!
My point is that Japan would not have surrendered had it faced only non-atomic air attacks. It would have kept on going forever. It was no secret that the U.S. Army was going to invade Japan (the landings in Honshu were planned for November 1945). The Russians, too, would have joined the fray. The surrender happened because of the three factors I mentioned, not just air power. Richard Overy's recent book on this subject is pretty good. In any event, I think we agree on Iran. Nice chatting.
"Have we purchased another 25 years of U.S./Iranian hostility?"
Most likely yes, and definitely yes if Netanyahu has his way. Short of boots on the ground, the conflict is the Zionist wet dream come true: sucking the US into an Israeli-Iranian conflict. With the US providing the Israeli munitions. Further similes are unprintable even in an adults-only press.
Most likely this war will "settle down" into a phase where Israel and the U.S. let the Iranians reopen the Straight and regroup a little and then throw more bombs and cruise missiles at those "green shoots."
On Saturday, March 7 (or maybe it was Friday, March 6) when White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt attempted to define tRump’s definition of unconditional surrender, she responded:
“What the president means is that when he as commander in chief of the U.S. armed forces determines that Iran no longer poses a threat to the United States of America and the goals of Operation Epic Fury has [sic] been fully realized, then Iran will essentially be in a place of unconditional surrender whether they say it themselves or not.”
This can be looked at in one of two ways - (1) militarily, in which case Iran has never had the military capacity to directly attack U.S. soil unless one is to count the countless and over redundant number of Middle East military bases where we serve as a mercenary force for tRump’s Middle East ruler business associates; or (2) a threat to the oil supply being shipped through the Persian Gulf to the U.S., countries the U.S. likes on any given day, and enemy regimes the U.S. wants to bully on any given day - a problem easily reduced in size if the U.S. took development of wind, solar, and energy storage systems seriously.
Thus, the war should have never been started and once started could have been ended if the U.S. had its priorities straight.
Unfortunately, neither (1) or (2) will be realized because the tRump Malministration, the Republican Party, the military-industrial complex, and Big Oil have their greedy head up their ass.
It wasn't about oil, it was because israel wanted us to go along with them to un-nuke iran but we will be held responsible. bibi and kushner's families have a long relationship and bibi stayed in kushner's home many times. K and witkoff had a deal with iran that gave US what they wanted -per the Omani mediator but bibi wanted to bomb iran. BTW israel has nukes.
THAT has been a problem for decades. We almost moved to Vegas @2006. Had a house but when we went to look at it together, we visited what's left of the Hoover Dam and decided between that and the IT massive focus on gaming (made sense) kept us from moving.
I thought Timothy Snyder's (on Substack) argument was enlightening: This war creates new incentives for terrorism in the US; such an attack could help win favor for Trump in the coming midterm elections. The incompetence/neglectance of the DHS to look for terrorist threats besides immigrants increases chances for terrorism to succeed. Snyder shows history bulks with events such as these followed by authoritarian uprising succeeding. For example, Putin's power increased tremendously after the attacks in Moscow earlier during his presidency (where it is still not clear whether the KGB was behind these attacks) allowing him to consolidate power. Or closer to home, 9/11. Let's hope when this happens people are aware of the differences between then and now.
You don't even need real terrorist attacks. Just make some fraudulent "explosive" devices and scatter them around at a MAGA gathering. Then call the FBI. Pretty much what just happened in NYC.
My thinking was also along those lines: why worry about real terrorists when we can demonize a couple jerks with "ISIS-inspired" radicalization? Pretty much the same as Pogo inspired radicalization.
I'm a lot more concerned with the religious right, and paranoid over the Ivy League and its law schools. I was tempted here to say these schools don't teach shit, but then realized that's exactly what they teach.
This is exactly one of my biggest concerns. DHS has been gutted of expertise by crazy Noem and her boyfriend in their personal brand initiative. The FBI has also been gutting counter terrorism in favor of going after Trump's enemies. I'm sure the same is true in Defense...excuse me Department of War. All of counter terrorist eyes are looking for American dissidents and Trump enemies, not the usual internationalist terrorists.
MAGA would love a terrorist attack in September/October.
Americans see gas prices in very large neon signs as they drive by stations, over and over. When they go up, that repetition starts to make them madder and madder. That's quite different from the effect of other price rises.
It seems this war is achieving one objective that Trump might be interested in: jacking up oil prices to help Putin's war machine. (No idea if the math works out to be significant, though.)
2Witty4Words. Kudos to Paul Krugman and Robin Wells for making economics interesting, entertaining and accessible. And with great soundtracks! Thank you!
Yes, Iran can end this war with the US by praising Trump and paying him off with a few billion in Trump coin. And Israel is bombing as fast as they can in case this happens. But that seems very unlikely at this point. I think more likely this will drag out like Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, and every other war and war in history where a tyrant believes incorrectly they run the world and the world will immediately succumb to their desires and whims.
What motivates frump and his ilk isn't what motivates Iran. We are comparing apples to oranges. (Hahaha, I did a thing there.)
Frump is so completely out of his league it is impossible to see where this ends. Except to say a lot of Americans, all over the world, are going to die from retaliation. Plenty of foreigners are going down with us by collateral damage. Isreal needs to arrest Bibi for crimes against humanity then perhaps we also get a regime change and can try to heal this injustice.
further, how can we be dependent upon foreign oil when we are busy stealing venezuela's oil and have just now launched a bombing raid on ecuador so we can steal their oil supplies too?
The US isn't dependent. Hormuz oil is mostly sold to Asia and Europe. But the prices are global. So a cut in supply with demand the same means prices go up for everybody
This is right. Oil is sold (and thus priced) globally. That multiple ME countries are shutting down production due to lack of storage capacity means longer term shocks even if Trump’s war ended today.
The US is a net exporter of oil, but it still imports a lot. Oil comes in different types and different refinaeries have different capabilities. It can be cheaper for certain regions of the US to import oil rather than transport it across the country.
Having the exclusive use of the USA's oil and gas resources would require nationalizing that industry. That would truly be an America First policy. That will never(?) happen but think about how it would neuter the power of the industry in national and local politics -- which would be a blessing in many ways. To be successful there would need to be legislative guardrails put in place to tamp down the inevitable corruption.
It would certainly be ironic if the geopolitical mess that started when Iran decided to nationalize oil in the early 50's resulted in Trump nationalizing US oil.
Wouldn't it though! Here is an overlook version of that history:
In 1949, Mohammad Mossadeq formed the National Front Party, with the aim of upholding the 1906 Constitution. One of the main goals of the National Front was to nationalize Iran’s oil industry; the British continued to control most of Iran’s oil revenue through the Anglo-Persian Oil Company. In 1951, the Shah appointed Mossadeq as prime minister. Mossadeq followed through on his plans to nationalize the oil industry, and the National Iranian Oil Company was formed. For many Iranians, Mossadeq became a nationalist leader. To some Western leaders with economic interests in the Middle East, his actions set an unwelcome precedent. In 1952 Mossadeq was named Time magazine’s Man of the Year. In 1953 the British MI-6 and the CIA undertook Operation Ajax, which toppled Mossadeq from power. To many Iranians, Mossadeq became a symbol of yet another moment in history when foreign intervention played a pivotal role in thwarting a democratic movement in Iran. Meanwhile, as Iran emerged from the political unrest of the 1950s, its economy was in tatters.
Physical dependency on oil is one thing but it's the price-dependency that's important. Oil is a fungible commodity - meaning that oil extracted in the U.S. is equivalent to similar oil extracted anywhere else in the world - and thus has a "world price" as opposed to a local price. In the absence of a physical shortage, which isn't the current case but what is worrying the experts, even releasing oil from the U.S. strategic reserves really won't lower the price at the pump as no company executive would last a DAY if that company's gasoline wasn't priced at what the market would bear.
The U.S. oil is "light Texas Crude", which is used by other countries. The refineries are in those countries. Almost all of the refineries here work with heavier oils, which must be imported. So, you will see articles that talk about the U.S. being a "net exporter", meaning that we export more oil than we import. But what we use here is imported oil. Paul covered this a few days ago.
The U.S. can NOT process Venezuelan oil cause its a different type, is my understanding. And another thing I had difficulty in understanding is why prices aren't 99. ends a gallon when we are the world's biggest exporter. But prices are set not by us but by world market.?
The U.S. is also the second largest oil importer (China is first). And yes, prices are set at auctions held in a few major cities, one of which is in the U.S. Sellers tend to be local to the country, but buyers are from all over.
It's almost as if it's unwise to have the entire global economy dependent on a resource that is extracted from one of the most volatile parts of the world and concentrated in the hands of a corrupt oligarchs, especially when that resource is supplied freely by yhe ever-present sun and wind.
The scientists lost the war vs. the evil oil companies because the oil guys were much more ruthless & deceptive, unethical and strident in their efforts. Scientists are smart, mild mannered & ethical but incapable of matching the $$$ & power the oilers bribed the politicians with.
What we need actually is an independent organisation raising environmental taxes world wide. One representing the earth. The only way it can be independent of special interests.
Read “Ministry of The Future” by Kim Stanley Robinson.
I can't help reposting this classic:
Plot idea: 97% of the world's scientists contrive an environmental crisis, but are exposed by a plucky band of billionaires & oil companies.
—Scott Westerfeld
Definitely has possibilities. The Ellisons might be interested. Or Murdoch family.
What I've learned over the last ten years is there are a helluvalot of very very rich-manipulative people in this country. Do any have morals?
I guess musk is beyond this. He should just be deported from when he came - the sun. It's a pleasant thought at least.
The scientists lost the war vs. the evil oil companies because the oil guys were much more ruthless & deceptive, unethical and strident in their effort." Not especially. They mainly lost to GOP power and it's oil interests and President Undo-liberalism.
In addition, to help clear away the notion of scientific defeat, recent polling from Gallup, Pew Research, and the Yale Program report that approximately 63% of Americans believe the effects of global warming have already begun—matching record highs. About 62% attribute rising temperatures primarily to human activities.
That should translate to Repubs being unable to pull more than 37% approval ratings nationwide.
The fundamental christians think this is God's way of ending the world. They believe they will be raptured before it gets too bad and the rest of us will roast. The ones who feel this way will vote for anyone who makes the warming worse more rapidly.
I've heard this out of some of them before and I saw it in 2015 and it scared the vought out of me. I saw it in multiple places over the years. If mump or vought or miller etc had morals ... (my bad, it's impossible). We have atheist "pres.", a very brainwashed "christian" brought up christian and he who wrote project 2025, and a little Jew turned Nazi which is insane to me (I'm a Jew and if I become a Nazi = I'd hope someone would send me to Bellvue). So all this works with the Manchurian novel which no one would believe.
I wouldn't call them "fundamental christians" since they don't obviously practice anything in the bible.
(Updated due to typo.)
Hell on Earth. The Fire Next Time.
Not at all. We don't have a one issue electorate.
Key word is "should"
"...of matching the $$$ & power the oilers bribe REPUBLICAN politicians with."
Fossil fuels--oil, gas. coal--are an almost exclusively GOP Red State gig.
That's true, the public is remarkably susceptible to artfully presented B S .
Does AI know how to bs more convincingly than people I wonder?
From what I see on Facebook - yes.
It’s all a grift…the Arab oil billionaires are gleeful. Trump only cares about Trump and power and money. We will have a lot of work to do to bring green energy back…if it’s possible.
I don't think the Arabs are happy at all. Putin on the other hand, is ecstatic. The Arabs who have been spending massive amounts to purchase Trump have gotten rolled in favor of Bibi and his right wing religious zealots.
I don't think Xi is pleased other than watching Trump destroy his biggest adversary.
China is by far best placed to survive and advance from this war.
They have a humongous Strategic Petroleum Reserve, their huge domestic transportation market (including semis) are shifting away from combustion vehicles, they're building out insane amounts of non-gas power plants (wind, solar, hydro, nuclear...and they have coal as a fallback anyway), and their companies are the major suppliers of renewable energy tech for the rest of the world.
Meanwhile, Trump is wasting the US' arms capability and driving the rest of the world into China's sphere.
To rephrase your comment: China knew their dependence on Persian Gulf oil was risk and prepared a contingency plan.
China has been building out its Strategic Petroleum Reserve for years now, as much to protect itself from any form of international sanctions as in anticipation of any specific problem in the Persian Gulf.
For a while it has been the 400-lb gorilla setting a floor and ceiling of world oil prices by discretionary purchase, filling its expanding SPR when prices were low and cutting back when the price rose. The same low oil prices* that shut down so many Permian Basin rigs in the US were helping to fill up China's stockpile of oil on the cheap. It got even cheaper oil from Venezuela, Russia and Iran, but gets a lot from the regular, unsanctioned world market as well.
___________
*Trump's negotiations with the Persian Gulf producers screwed over US domestic oil producers that depend on higher oil prices for their wells to be profitable.
I'd be interested in knowing specifics about how this current Epstein-Iran War is drawing down China's SPR, as 85% of all that oil bottled up at the Straits of Hormuz was destined for China & Asia.
Putin is not ecstatic. Iran is one of Russia's best allies. Putin is sending drones, Sukhoi aircraft, and missiles to Iran. He's also telling Iran exactly where every one of our warships is. DonyJon is trying to placate him by removing sanctions.
I don't see a scenario where anybody wins.
China is the biggest consumer of oil passing through the strait of Hormuz, but also recognized that was a risk and has made contingency plans... which is say, China is still as nefarious as we thought they were in 2024, but they're a competent, nefarious, government.
Somewhere in the department formerly known as "defense," there are probably experts who also have contingency plans. But they are not in charge.
This deliberate disregard for basic risk management makes me worry about the approach to Cuba: Yes, you can cause a state to fail by starving it of resources. But then you have a failed state NEXT DOOR.
You have a new batch of refugees which it will be hard to pin on President Biden.
As long as Marco Rubio and his fellow Cuban RW aristo's can reclaim the mansions and casinos seized by Castro, that's all that matters.
Putin will be especially ecstatic if Trump carries through on reducing sanctions on Russia. News item 3/9 mid-afternoon PST.
Europe will be torn. Russia's shenanigans in the Baltic Sea (shadow tankers breaking data cables, drone swarm shutting down Copenhagen airport, ships carrying dangerous amounts of ammonia nitrate casually wandering along other countries' coasts) has gotten them more pissed off than ever.
This.
Oil climbs over $100/barrel AND Trump pushes to un-sanction Russia?! For this, Vladimir will be happy to fight to the last Iranian (paraphrasing a post I read yesterday).
It may seem like a relative triviality, but unless things change very dramatically and soon, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are going have their Grand Prix cancelled this year (and if they don't, the drivers and teams really should boycott or they all deserve the disaster that may ensue). This may begin to show the absurdity of Arab sportswashing, which has been a huge priority of the regimes. The Arab leaders can not be pleased about any of this.
Well, Saudi Arabia has a pipeline for *its* oil to reach safe Red Sea export terminals. And $100/barrel...with the likelihood of prices rising much higher?! How do you translate "orgasm" into Arabic?
The cross-SA pipeline ("East-West Crude Oil Pipeline") from the oil fields to the Yanbu refinery center and port on the Red Sea has the capacity for 5m bbl/day (Saudi Arabia's fields produced almost 10m bbl/day before these attacks).
The head of the pipeline is within the war zone and is a potential target of Iran directly. There's also the problem of whether the all-too-capable Houthis (Zaida Shia) attack the Yanbu facilities or the tankers on Iran's behalf, or they just stick to targets they think support Israel in any way.
For Nubby: alnashwat aljinsia - النشوة الجنسية
Tens of thousands of us are working on green energy from wind, sun and water.
Norway is over 99% renewable energy and the 10th largest oil exporter. Canada is the 4th largest oil exporting country. They are going to have a huge windfall from the Iran War.
The biggest winner is…Putin. $100 a barrel oil makes it much easier for him to prop up what would otherwise be an increasingly shaky war economy in Russia.
You think the trumpcophant regime foresaw that as a possible outcome in the beginning?
Nah, neither do I.
His orders from KGB Headquarters were actually quite explicit on the subject.
Yes - it does seem daft, doesn't it?
And don't forget water and the battery storage. Check out run-of-the-river hydroelectric power.
I also saw a headline yesterday that they're studying putting in a geothermal plant in the UK. Our west coast is volcanically active. Shouldn't that be a possibility there?
It must be that new-generation build-anywhere, deep, fracked geothermal, since the UK doesn't have the geology for old-school shallow geothermal.
https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/global-map-to-identify-areas-suitable-for-geothermal-power-plants/
No idea on that, but here's an excerpt from a BBC article on it. "The UK's first geothermal power plant has been turned on, providing a completely new type of renewable electricity using hot water from underground.
On Thursday morning, the Cornish plant will be switched on after nearly two decades in development which required Geothermal Engineering Ltd (GEL) to drill the deepest on-shore well in the UK.
The water, super-heated by rocks, will help drive turbines to generate electricity for 10,000 homes, but will also provide the UK's first domestic supply of lithium - a critical mineral used in green technology.
The British Geological Survey said it was a 'major step forward' for geothermal but high drilling costs could make replicating the project difficult."
If you have an account, here's a link to the article - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cewzg77k721o
Hmm... 5000 meters deep, which is deeper than traditional geothermal, and the project probably dates from the early advances in deeper drilling this century. (Compare that to the old plants at the Salton Sea, which got productive power plant heat at 1km, then more at 3km.)
The upside is that the world is again learning the lesson of the dangers of relying on oil for energy. It's a win for renewables and conservation.
I bet the Arabs are pissed at Trump. He's taken their plans and scrambled them.
"Again learning" is right. I'm old enough to remember a couple years ago when there was a natural gas panic when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started. Yet somehow, we quickly forget this lesson months after each shock.
I'm old enough to remember the oil embargo in the 70s, which is when we SHOULD have immediately started building a good high speed rail system across the US and worked on transitioning to other forms of energy...but the oil, tire and car companies made sure that didn't happen, just like they bought up and destroyed the tram systems in the major cities in the past, to make sure their industries would reap maximum benefits.
An early indication of the fundamental flaws in the structure of the US government was the complete failure to learn from and respond to the 70s oil shocks. This is continuing with the failure to adequately address the global warming problem. If there are any people around in the distant future, they'll use ExxonMobil, not Nazi, as a general slur.
And keep a careful tally of the all the Oil CEO's and senior management who've been gleefully steering us into this apocalypse. When the time comes, and public anger deep enough, they'll all get fair trials. And then the firing squads can commence.
They'll be long gone when the real damage occurs. And at the rate the dumbing down of the public is going, when catastrophe strikes, it will be blamed on witches.
They'll be long gone when the real damage occurs. And at the rate the dumbing down of the public is going, when catastrophe strikes, it will be blamed on witches.
In the 1990s there was a plausible proposal to build HSR connecting the largest cities in Texas (Dallas, Yewstin, San Antonio and Austin), but airline lobbyists—especially Southwest, which would be hurt the most—defeated it.
Ya’ think?
Almost? We’ve been warned about that for decades. Apparently nobody was, or is, listening.
He was being sarcastic.
Seems like there intelligent thing for our country to do would be investing in wind, solar, battery powered transportation, and alternative types of fuel. We would be untethered from big oil and dangerous liaisons. Unfortunately politicians on both sides of the isle have lined their pockets with big oil donations and promises of financial opportunities in the future.
Far more from one side than the other.
Yup. Something like 10:1 GOP:Dem. Fossil fuels are an almost entirely Republican constituency.
And its not only the oil that closing the straight affects, its also LNG, and all sorts of products that pass through there, like fertilizer that US farmers use lots of, all sorts of petrochemical and plastics products, stuff like polyehtene, benzene—as someone pointed out anything with an “ene” on the end. And as Mr. Krugman pointed out in his Satruday piece, recalling the covid global shipping back up that caused tankers to have to circle and get in line at the Port of Los Angeles and others, which lasted months on end, where container shipping came to all but a complete halt. It’s bad and can get very much worse, unless TACO re-emerges?
U.S. farmers used to get the majority of their fertilizer from Canada, but that was before DonnyJon declared economic war on Canada.
Yes
I know, right?
And *locally* to boot.
Finally the world is realizing what we’re known since forever 😎
Not quite true. The US is currently the largest oil producer in the world. But, of course, market prices are set at the margin and can be dramatically affected by smaller producers withholding supply.
But the easy to extract shale oil is about depleted and we're moving into a phase of Tier II shale oil - much more difficult and expensive to extract ... the U.S. oil production has peaked even at $100 a barrel oil... in 20 years, shale oil will be a disappearing resource. Then what?
I didn't mean to imply that it exclusively comes from the middle east, but your point is well-taken.
Americans may not care about Iranian dying but they do care about gas prices. Here's hoping sanity will leak into their government.
If gas prices go to $4.50 per gallon, the war will end within days. Trump will simply declare victory. On to Cuba!
Spot on! Trump's great weakness is that he's a pathological liar with an absurdly credulous support base. But his great strength is that he's a pathological liar with an absurdly credulous support base.
This morning oil prices are over $100/barrel. Trump posted rising energy prices are "a small price to pay" for his glorious Trump-ed up war based on lies just like the glorious Iraq war.
Coda: "When will they ever learn?"--Pete Seeger
This is going to go down as the stupidest military action of the modern era, perhaps even worse than W's Iraq War...
There are very good reasons why nobody has done this kind of thing in the past, but unfortunately Dear Leader is beyond reason.
Bottom line: Trump scored an "own goal." We all will pay for this in many ways.
If the U.S. & Israel managed to install a puppet govt. in Iran, which I doubt, the insurgency will make the one in Iraq look like a garden party.
Yes. But now everybody is talking about the Epstein-Iran War! The embarrassing coverup of the Trump-Epstein files has been completely forgotten!
Nice, Mark, but Pete S concluded that song by changing the ‘they’ to ‘we’ … A lesson to learn?
Some of us have already learned. People around the world watching this unfold in horror must think the rest of us are a bunch of stupid sheeples who can be hoodwinked by a con man.
We knew already when you voted Reagan in office - twice over. Sadly, I am old enough to remember that.
Every 20 dollars the price goes up a barrel. Is an additional 50 cents a gallon at the pump.
Once again makes me glad I have a Prius @~40mpg, and makes me think about more trips with my Ebike.
Apparently there are 3 hour lines at airports because TSA isn't getting paid and is sicking out. MAGA is upset.
Every cloud has a silver lining. Higher oil prices make alternative energy even more attractive. Geothermal provides 24/7 base power at less than half the cost of nuclear, and is available everywhere at the cost of drilling a bit deeper. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/geothermal/oil-company-dug-four-mile-deep-well
Makes me glad I rely on the bus and don't own a car.
I think diesel climbs even higher. And what we lump together as "diesel" includes heating oil and aviation jet fuel.
That doesn’t mean Israel will back off.
Indeed, this is one key reason why Iran is so different than VZ: Trump's voters will believe anything he says because it doesn't effect them, but for Israel this is not a game.
We will just keep giving Israel weaponry.
Iran has a vote too. They will keep the straight of Hormuz close.
Israel doesn’t have to back off, since they’re using American weaponry anyway. It’s basically free for Netanyahu, and we know very well who he is.
One Israeli military expert said a few days ago that Israel will not be able to continue the war without the U.S. actively fighting.
Let’s hope it’s true.
As I recall, in the spring of 2022, after the Ukraine war began, gas in my region went north of $5/gal. Not only was that driven by higher oil prices but in the spring the formulation changes from winter to summer blends and that drives the prices per gallon higher every season for about 6 weeks or so. The demented felon may TACO, but Israel won't. That country wants Iran turned into rubble, no matter the consequences. I think higher gas prices are going to be with us for several months.
The problem for Trump is that all this WILL affect his voters unless they are hermits because all manner of prices will be increasing due to the world-wide repercussions on the cost and availability of energy underlying the supply chains which furnish a great deal of what all his voters consume on a daily basis - everything from food, clothing, microchips in all their electronic toys, the list goes on. To the extent this war fuels at least SOME inflation, interest rates will either not decrease or will increase, affecting mortgages, jobs, the US deficit and so on.
One of the great ancient civilizations, far ahead of most of Europe at a time when colonizing North America had barely begun...
Another thing Trump might do is lift sanctions on Russia.
IMHO that has always been one of the reasons for this war. Bibi and MBS kept whispering in tRump’s ear “just go ahead and do it”, but Putin also whispered “if Middle East oil is cut off, I’ve got plenty”. Add to that “When the U.S. burns through their Patriot anti-missile system, leaving none for Europe and Ukraine, Iran still has lots of drones. Ukraine will offer their drone technology to the U.S.. You, tRump, will say yes and send the Ukrainian drone technology straight to me.” This war is a win for Putin.
Ukraine has already offered to help.
Agree, the whole thing is a huge win for Russia.
Try the following proposition:
DJT has ALWAYS been the Kremlin's golem, primed to wreck the US.
Gas prices where I live in the mountains of California have been above $4.50/gallon for years. Literally. I have a PHEV and a Tesla.
And you are exactly who I've been looking for. CA where prices are always high here. Good luck over there.
We’ll see how easy it is to get out of Iran once the U.S. forces exhaust their supply of tomahawks and keep getting repeatedly attacked by drones. Also, the U.S. is beholden to the Israelis who are beholden to the christian nationalists who brokered the deal to make the U.S. and Israel as allied as they are. Also, the market rate on crude oil hasn’t come close to cresting. Some areas in the country are in excess of US$4.50/gallon and more will be on the way, possibly in as little as a week’s time.
Regular gas is at $4.50 or more in Portland, OR. Trump and his toadies are doubling down.
According to Google AI, the average price of gas in the U.S. is $3.48 per gallon. It must cost more in Portland because the city is controlled by Bolsheviks.
Cheap gas is a policy decison in favor of urban sprawl, air pollution, billionaires, and unsustainability.
It always bites you in the end.
As a supporter of conservation (not a "conservative"), I'd like to ask everyone to make do with fewer billionaires in government service.
Dunno because before he said he even goes by his own morals, he doesn't care about anyone but himself. On to Cuba anyway with Rubio at the tip of the spear.
This is from March 5th, so all prices are higher and some are reaching your price point.
https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/
Google AI says that the average price of gas as of March 9 is $3.48 per gallon.
Which is a 15% increase from a week ago.
According to a Reuters report last week, the Trump administration is apparently going to try to manipulate the market to get oil prices down... Huge skepticism that it could "work" when ultimately the price comes down to supply and demand.
Scott Bessent's Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Shorting Oil Tame Iran Shock? Experts Warn It Can Whipsaw Trend-Following Funds
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/futures/26/03/51090037/scott-bessents-billion-dollar-bet-can-shorting-oil-tame-iran-shock-experts-warn-it-can-whipsaw-trend-following-funds
diesel is $4.66 (up 86 cents adding to transportation costs
We're already paying more than that in San Francisco. But Trump does not take advice from liberals.
They’re already at $4.59 here in WA. It’s been that high for months. When they hit $5.00 or higher, the shit will hit the fan.
High prices helps Ds buddy Putin. And that is what he wants...the $$$ funds the failed war effort of Russia v. Ukr
That's the squeeze for him, and he knows it.
Did you see how violent he got at reporters when they asked about Russia's support of the Iranians with strategic intelligence? He knows there's no way out of that one.
No, what did he say?
DOOCY: It sounds like the Russians are helping Iran target and attack Americans--
TRUMP: That's an easy problem compared to what we're doing here. What a stupid question that is to be asking at this time. We're talking about something else.
Thank you. And in addition to the transcript, the video shows just how apoplectic he was when the issue came up. He knows there's no way out for him if Russia backs Iran since he has no choice but to back Russia no matter what.
Thank you!
I don't think that was Trump's plan. I don't think he plans. Unfortunately, I think Krugman was right about the "Warrior Ethos" and Kushner was probably the last person to whisper in Trump's ear. Maybe war with Iran is what it takes for the Trumps to get their shining city on the sea in the former Gaza strip full of Trump towers and golf courses.
It is completey impossible to understand how America could benefit from this å war. Is running errands for Israel really what Americans want?
I mean, for at least as long as I've been alive, the answer has consistently been "yes." I would like to believe that's finally changing, but it'll be a slow turn.
It's not just Iran, though. It's Saudi Arabia. It's a real sign of how comprehensively corrupt and money-obsessed the United States had become that even after an event like 9/11, no one ever seriously considered giving the Saudis a meaningful amount of grief. The entire "war on terror" was structured to carefully ignore the fact that it was Saudi money, Saudi policy, and Saudi ideology that was breeding all of those jihadist movements worldwide, and instead to focus on Saudi enemies with zero connection to 9/11 like Iraq and Iran. (Yes, the Saudis still bitched about what we did, because let's face it, we did some *powerfully* stupid shit. No we didn't inconvenience them nearly as much as they deserved).
When future historians look at the decline and corruption of the United States, the 9/11 response, even before Trump's "Russia, if you're listening" moment, will be held up as an example of how thoroughly penetrated through corruption leading back to foreign regimes the country had become.
No. But what Americans want isn't the point anymore. It hasn't been the point for over a year. Kings don't have to consult the peasants.
The US is not running errands for Israel. There is a confluence of interest between the two privately and publicly in respect of future economic and political developments in the region.
Except for the Palestinians who are being forced out of their own country.
BTW isreal has nukes - why is this allowed?
Letting that be common knowledge would blow the Israel is in danger of being erased. The US gave the Israelis nukes decades ago.
Actually France was the source of the nuclear capability.
Of course the US was certainly aware.
Look at the regio. Iran is surrounded by countries that have atomic weapons. China, India, Pakistan, Isreal, Russia.
So why cannot Iran have it too? Once the big beautiful bomb is finished, they will realize it is a rather useless item to have. These weapons are only good for threatening.
D is a dictator....he cares not a whit what we think. Right? You think like a democrat....how a 'normal' one thinks. This situation is Id, ego all in one.
He cares what the people who bribed and blackmailed him think. That's who has the power to change his mind, not us.
Agreed and that's most of us ... They will go after other minorities (what else, we're a country made up of them) next. Cabinet, non-cabinet should self deport.
Yer right, cuz if we know anything it’s that this is a man whose word is his bond and when he’s bought he stays bought and … oh wait! Who are we talking about here? Trump? He’s just as likely to turn about, praise Allah, and bomb Tel Aviv
Putin has material on the leader, and with the release of more material some are saying he has video from Epstein of child abuse. The Isrealis probably know what Putin has. Netanyahu didn't have to pay any bitcoin.
Remember donold hosted all those beauty pageants in Russia. Who was feeding who girls? Putin to donold to Epstein. Or donold to putin? or donal and vlad to Epstein? or was it a 3-way? So many options...pick one.
the hotels in Moscow are famously bugged and likely when trump visited in the '80s his golden shower was videoed
Every visitor to the then-USSR knew about the mikes. The big mirror in the small room could have a camera behind it. Phonecalls all went through an exchange. Elderly ladies on every level kept watch who came and who went. You really think being aware of all that, people still misbehaved in those rooms - producing "kompromat"?
Wow! You are indeed well-informed. Does Q know what you know?
I'm an American and I care more about Iranians dying than gas prices. I hate what Trump is doing to people. I hate that any American didn't know this would happen. I hate that any American was stupid enough to vote for him even the first time. I'm sorry to the whole world that Americans have let this happen.
Many people who voted for Trump believed he - savvy businessman - would never get the US in yet another war.
He's always been a horrible businessman. It's been plainly obvious for decades. How any American could think he was a good businessman is incomprehensible to me.
Savvy - as in war costs money so let's not do that. For years Mr. Trump was propped up by the media, first by newspapers/magazines, later on especially through The Apprentice. Producers loved having him for a walk-on or a cameo. People who could have contradicted his "success" on TV - it was all in the editing - were muzzled by NDAs.
But you are missing the point I was making. Many 2016 Trump-voters thought he would not go to war (and Ms. Clinton would).
Please do not ask me to explain the fuzzy logic. I am not a USAmerican, I only live in the US.
They thought without thinking. They were idiots. Idiots.
I think it is dumb to call voters "idiots". Most of them had lost a lot thanks to the thinking that was done at the upper levels, by politicians, economists, bankers, investors. It netted us the crisis of 2008. Which was preventable.
Many people lost their savings, their job, their home. So the idea got hold that this time not a another politician beholden to big money should go to the White House, but a businessman. Then things would be done differently.
This American cares about Iranians dying. We have a mad king
Forget sanity. I’d be satisfied with some outrage.
For real
I can see the headlines now from certain media: IRANIANS RAISE OIL PRICES (Trump Derangement Syndrome cited as cause).
Pete Hegseth and his christian warrior ethos meeds to go, too.
The foundations are being laid for the 250-foot tall Victory Arch as we speak … The name of who was defeated can be entered later, but strangely there are both menorahs and minarets in the decorations
What about sanity leaking into your own government.........They dropped the first bomb......
The irony of it all is that, when this war (ops sorry ... operation) will be over, gas prices will come down. I'm sure someone would use that as an electoral argument, trying to sell to the voters the derivative of the price curve rather than the actual number.
More likely into them do that they change the government in November. Too bad it’s only March, so this will still get a lot worse before it gets better.
Paul this is strait up your best column 😂
If US citizens really cared about gas prices they would push car gas mileage requirements- current numbers could be 400 mpg cars, 180 mpg diesel trucks with tech from 20 years ago
"..it is only those who have never heard a shot, never heard the shriek and groans of the wounded and lacerated (friend or foe), that cry aloud for more blood, more vengeance, more desolation." William Tecumseh Sherman
Them and the thoroughgoing psychopaths for whom those sounds are music to their ears. Hegseth sounds like he's one of these and Miller looks like he is - Nosferatu in pinstripe.
Definitely, and the desensitization we have now. It is sad, shocking, inhumane, cruel, (fill in the blank) how easy it seems to be for many people to absolutely ignore war and war-like hostilities anymore. There is the “excuse” that most Americans have little to no experience, but what is the reason that too many seem to have little to no humanity?
Certainly not Cadet Bone Spurs, who actually couldn't give a good G-ddamn about our servicemen & women; they're just props for his agenda.
Sherman never conceived of video game weekend warriors running the military.
And they, in turn, are incapable of comprehending what he witnessed on battlefields.
Healthcare’s gone, citizens are shot for protesting, soldiers in caskets, groceries through the roof… but hey, at least gas prices keep climbing. Truly the land of greatness.
Looks like trump is going to make Hassett’s prediction of ‘Dow 36,000’ come true
So trumps Golden Age has begun?? MAGA! Just in time for spring planting, may all the MAGA farmers enjoy 5 to 6 dollar diesel
This, from NYTimes newsletter this morning:
“Five of them — Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — supply more than a third of the world’s urea, an important nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly a quarter of another one, ammonia. And they all use the Strait of Hormuz to export their products.
“Which is terrible timing for farmers in the Northern Hemisphere, who will soon need fertilizer to boost their spring crops. Where might they get it? China’s the most obvious alternative, Peter writes. But last year the Chinese government imposed restrictions on the export of fertilizer, in part to shield its farmers from just the sort of geopolitical chaos this war brought on.”
It’s sure lucky we’ve nurtured our ancient and golden relationship w Canada …
I bought two years supply of fertilizer when he first put tariffs on Canada, I haven't looked at prices, but they have been going up for a while anyway. Shell flour that used to cost $60 is now $90, err, $92. Think I better order more soon - it helps with the creepy, crawly things that like droughts.
I usually buy a bunch of stuff when I shop to keep our supply cost lower. So, my focus was on paper supplies.
Shell flour. That’s diatomaceous earth, right? Good stuff. (As in, fossilized sea shells pulverized to powder. I’ve never heard it called shell flour.)
Fossilized shell flour; it can be addded to livestock feed or other food. It's the shell of fossilized diatoms, I think.
So check the stock prices and futures of companies providing urea, fertilizers in the US
And no fertilizer!
We have lunatic demented clown and sadistic underlings in charge. What to do about that???
Call your reps everyday, 1 billionof taxpayer money is flying out the window, people are dying and donny is playing golf.
NO KINGS 3 MARCH 28 Be there and be loud.
Good column. Great subtitle!
One has to wonder how this ends. Is it possible to change a regime through air power? Is it possible to make peace with a regime after you've slaughtered its leadership? Have we purchased another 25 years of U.S./Iranian hostility?
"Is it possible to change a regime through air power?"
I'm pretty sure that's a definite "no".
It's been consistently tried before and has failed. Let's hope the mad king doesn't decide to nuke em and be done with it.
Most experts suggest not, you would either need troops on the ground or a successful uprising, neither which are likely.
Regime change through air power has exactly one data point.
Japan in WWII.
But the Japanese Emperor actually cared about the citizens.
Religious fanatics are in charge in Iran, Israel, and the US.
Great point, but I'm not so sure that the Emperor cared much about Japanese citizens. In any event, conventional bombing alone didn't force Japan to surrender. It was a combination of (a) the shock of atomic bombing, (b) Russian intervention, and (c) the looming U.S. invasion of the home islands. Nice chatting!
Suuuure, but the fact is that the country was not invaded.
The Kuril Islands advance happened after Japan announced their surrender.
Iwo Jima was part of Japan. So was Okinawa. I'm pretty sure we invaded both of those.
Iwo Jima is over 700 miles from Japan's main island. It was an strategic location, but a difficult march for the army to get to Tokyo.
Okinawa is closer to 1000 miles. Only about 500 miles to Honshu, so easier for the army to swim I suppose.
But you win the award for missing the point.
My point is that Japan would not have surrendered had it faced only non-atomic air attacks. It would have kept on going forever. It was no secret that the U.S. Army was going to invade Japan (the landings in Honshu were planned for November 1945). The Russians, too, would have joined the fray. The surrender happened because of the three factors I mentioned, not just air power. Richard Overy's recent book on this subject is pretty good. In any event, I think we agree on Iran. Nice chatting.
I agree with that.
The bluff that an endless supply of A bombs was available made the difference.
"Have we purchased another 25 years of U.S./Iranian hostility?"
Most likely yes, and definitely yes if Netanyahu has his way. Short of boots on the ground, the conflict is the Zionist wet dream come true: sucking the US into an Israeli-Iranian conflict. With the US providing the Israeli munitions. Further similes are unprintable even in an adults-only press.
Most likely this war will "settle down" into a phase where Israel and the U.S. let the Iranians reopen the Straight and regroup a little and then throw more bombs and cruise missiles at those "green shoots."
Conclusion: Solar and wind power are more secure sources of power.
On Saturday, March 7 (or maybe it was Friday, March 6) when White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt attempted to define tRump’s definition of unconditional surrender, she responded:
“What the president means is that when he as commander in chief of the U.S. armed forces determines that Iran no longer poses a threat to the United States of America and the goals of Operation Epic Fury has [sic] been fully realized, then Iran will essentially be in a place of unconditional surrender whether they say it themselves or not.”
This can be looked at in one of two ways - (1) militarily, in which case Iran has never had the military capacity to directly attack U.S. soil unless one is to count the countless and over redundant number of Middle East military bases where we serve as a mercenary force for tRump’s Middle East ruler business associates; or (2) a threat to the oil supply being shipped through the Persian Gulf to the U.S., countries the U.S. likes on any given day, and enemy regimes the U.S. wants to bully on any given day - a problem easily reduced in size if the U.S. took development of wind, solar, and energy storage systems seriously.
Thus, the war should have never been started and once started could have been ended if the U.S. had its priorities straight.
Unfortunately, neither (1) or (2) will be realized because the tRump Malministration, the Republican Party, the military-industrial complex, and Big Oil have their greedy head up their ass.
It wasn't about oil, it was because israel wanted us to go along with them to un-nuke iran but we will be held responsible. bibi and kushner's families have a long relationship and bibi stayed in kushner's home many times. K and witkoff had a deal with iran that gave US what they wanted -per the Omani mediator but bibi wanted to bomb iran. BTW israel has nukes.
Jim, agree on all. Somewhere I recently posted a similar comment
People have been wondering when things are going to get worse due to the insanity of the current regime. Now seems to be the answer to that question.
And let's remember that frakking uses lots of water. This from the US.gov shows aquifer depletion across much of the US. So after oil, where will we get water? https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/groundwater-declines-across-us-south-over-past-decade
THAT has been a problem for decades. We almost moved to Vegas @2006. Had a house but when we went to look at it together, we visited what's left of the Hoover Dam and decided between that and the IT massive focus on gaming (made sense) kept us from moving.
I thought Timothy Snyder's (on Substack) argument was enlightening: This war creates new incentives for terrorism in the US; such an attack could help win favor for Trump in the coming midterm elections. The incompetence/neglectance of the DHS to look for terrorist threats besides immigrants increases chances for terrorism to succeed. Snyder shows history bulks with events such as these followed by authoritarian uprising succeeding. For example, Putin's power increased tremendously after the attacks in Moscow earlier during his presidency (where it is still not clear whether the KGB was behind these attacks) allowing him to consolidate power. Or closer to home, 9/11. Let's hope when this happens people are aware of the differences between then and now.
You don't even need real terrorist attacks. Just make some fraudulent "explosive" devices and scatter them around at a MAGA gathering. Then call the FBI. Pretty much what just happened in NYC.
My thinking was also along those lines: why worry about real terrorists when we can demonize a couple jerks with "ISIS-inspired" radicalization? Pretty much the same as Pogo inspired radicalization.
I'm a lot more concerned with the religious right, and paranoid over the Ivy League and its law schools. I was tempted here to say these schools don't teach shit, but then realized that's exactly what they teach.
This is exactly one of my biggest concerns. DHS has been gutted of expertise by crazy Noem and her boyfriend in their personal brand initiative. The FBI has also been gutting counter terrorism in favor of going after Trump's enemies. I'm sure the same is true in Defense...excuse me Department of War. All of counter terrorist eyes are looking for American dissidents and Trump enemies, not the usual internationalist terrorists.
MAGA would love a terrorist attack in September/October.
Americans see gas prices in very large neon signs as they drive by stations, over and over. When they go up, that repetition starts to make them madder and madder. That's quite different from the effect of other price rises.
Yeah, gas prices are basically how the average American measures cost of living.
It seems this war is achieving one objective that Trump might be interested in: jacking up oil prices to help Putin's war machine. (No idea if the math works out to be significant, though.)
2Witty4Words. Kudos to Paul Krugman and Robin Wells for making economics interesting, entertaining and accessible. And with great soundtracks! Thank you!
Yes, Iran can end this war with the US by praising Trump and paying him off with a few billion in Trump coin. And Israel is bombing as fast as they can in case this happens. But that seems very unlikely at this point. I think more likely this will drag out like Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, and every other war and war in history where a tyrant believes incorrectly they run the world and the world will immediately succumb to their desires and whims.
What motivates frump and his ilk isn't what motivates Iran. We are comparing apples to oranges. (Hahaha, I did a thing there.)
Frump is so completely out of his league it is impossible to see where this ends. Except to say a lot of Americans, all over the world, are going to die from retaliation. Plenty of foreigners are going down with us by collateral damage. Isreal needs to arrest Bibi for crimes against humanity then perhaps we also get a regime change and can try to heal this injustice.
professor krugman: i'm confused. how can the USA be so dependent upon foreign oil when we were (supposedly) the leader in local oil extraction?
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from.php
further, how can we be dependent upon foreign oil when we are busy stealing venezuela's oil and have just now launched a bombing raid on ecuador so we can steal their oil supplies too?
The US isn't dependent. Hormuz oil is mostly sold to Asia and Europe. But the prices are global. So a cut in supply with demand the same means prices go up for everybody
This is right. Oil is sold (and thus priced) globally. That multiple ME countries are shutting down production due to lack of storage capacity means longer term shocks even if Trump’s war ended today.
The US is a net exporter of oil, but it still imports a lot. Oil comes in different types and different refinaeries have different capabilities. It can be cheaper for certain regions of the US to import oil rather than transport it across the country.
Saudis own the largest refinery in the US
Having the exclusive use of the USA's oil and gas resources would require nationalizing that industry. That would truly be an America First policy. That will never(?) happen but think about how it would neuter the power of the industry in national and local politics -- which would be a blessing in many ways. To be successful there would need to be legislative guardrails put in place to tamp down the inevitable corruption.
It would certainly be ironic if the geopolitical mess that started when Iran decided to nationalize oil in the early 50's resulted in Trump nationalizing US oil.
Wouldn't it though! Here is an overlook version of that history:
In 1949, Mohammad Mossadeq formed the National Front Party, with the aim of upholding the 1906 Constitution. One of the main goals of the National Front was to nationalize Iran’s oil industry; the British continued to control most of Iran’s oil revenue through the Anglo-Persian Oil Company. In 1951, the Shah appointed Mossadeq as prime minister. Mossadeq followed through on his plans to nationalize the oil industry, and the National Iranian Oil Company was formed. For many Iranians, Mossadeq became a nationalist leader. To some Western leaders with economic interests in the Middle East, his actions set an unwelcome precedent. In 1952 Mossadeq was named Time magazine’s Man of the Year. In 1953 the British MI-6 and the CIA undertook Operation Ajax, which toppled Mossadeq from power. To many Iranians, Mossadeq became a symbol of yet another moment in history when foreign intervention played a pivotal role in thwarting a democratic movement in Iran. Meanwhile, as Iran emerged from the political unrest of the 1950s, its economy was in tatters.
https://greyartmuseum.nyu.edu/2015/12/a-brief-history-of-20th-century-iran/
Even if the industry were to be nationalized, there would have to be many expensive changes to U.S. refineries to allow them to process U.S. oil.
Physical dependency on oil is one thing but it's the price-dependency that's important. Oil is a fungible commodity - meaning that oil extracted in the U.S. is equivalent to similar oil extracted anywhere else in the world - and thus has a "world price" as opposed to a local price. In the absence of a physical shortage, which isn't the current case but what is worrying the experts, even releasing oil from the U.S. strategic reserves really won't lower the price at the pump as no company executive would last a DAY if that company's gasoline wasn't priced at what the market would bear.
The U.S. oil is "light Texas Crude", which is used by other countries. The refineries are in those countries. Almost all of the refineries here work with heavier oils, which must be imported. So, you will see articles that talk about the U.S. being a "net exporter", meaning that we export more oil than we import. But what we use here is imported oil. Paul covered this a few days ago.
The U.S. can NOT process Venezuelan oil cause its a different type, is my understanding. And another thing I had difficulty in understanding is why prices aren't 99. ends a gallon when we are the world's biggest exporter. But prices are set not by us but by world market.?
That's not correct. Yes, Venezuelan oil is different, but there are refineries along the Texas Gulf Coast that are licking their chops waiting for it to be delivered. See, e.g., https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/012126-us-gulf-coast-refiners-seen-benefiting-from-increased-use-of-heavy-venezuelan-crude
The U.S. is also the second largest oil importer (China is first). And yes, prices are set at auctions held in a few major cities, one of which is in the U.S. Sellers tend to be local to the country, but buyers are from all over.