Paul, just a wish you have a great bike trip with your wife. This blog is the best thing on Substack and I look forward to your return and your crystal clear writing and spot on analysis.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, market's up, S&P +2.5%. I know, I know, it means little, but WTF? Retail investors' traps? Tax cuts up ramp? I know a bunch of critters in that neighborhood and they are everything they merit to be called. They are, however, categorically not dim. As Coppi said more then once, booh
Trump backing down when confronted is a well-established pattern. And we all understand that the chaos he creates is bad for business (and for everything else in American life).
But it's the long-term--perhaps permanent--damage Trump has wrought that is most concerning. No business leader can trust anything Trump says. And no foreign leader can trust anything the United States says, offers, signs, or commits to. In his first term, Trump abrogated agreements to which the US was signatory (the Paris Climate Accords, for example. Or NAFTA, as another.). This term, he's tossing treaties over the side.
Any country that deals with the United States now understands that, no matter what any President negotiates and agrees to, the next President may well by a childish imbecile who simply refuses to recognize the agreement. Thus is the United States made both an unreliable correspondent and an object of scorn.
And it is not like there wasn't precedent from trump 1... Yet, for the most part, the investor class went all in for him and they have no one to blame but themselves. The regular person on the streets doesn't have the wherewithall to buy up big blocks of stocks at the (new) low or short-sell them. This level of corruption has turned us into a banana republic in 3 months.
Weren't we were a banana republic when Biden came in and he dug us out? Docs and nurses were "protecting" themselves from covid in plastic garbage bags because orders were literally being stolen/hijacked by our own gov. Routes had to change (by Governors who ordered their own supplies for their constituents because mump sure as heck wasn't giving it out for free). The corruption goes on like an EverReady battery
Someone in Ghiat or Applebaum's substack said the full takeover of this country would be done faster than hitler was able to and it seems to be true.
The level of corruption would fill an encyclopedia. The evil brought to this world is unfathomed to me.
There's polling, cited by Dan Pfieffer on The Message Box today, showing very healthy majority wants Trump to respect court orders...and the courts are not cooperating with Trump.
Hitler got legal sanction for emergency powers after the Reichstag fire. He could thus use the legal system. Trump can't.
His abject climb down on tariffs indicates he doesn't have "the necessary" to foment real chaos. And he would be blamed for it, if he did, polling already makes clear. Suspect he's aware...hence the climb down.
The courts are starting to do their jobs. Also, a recent survey shows that majorities of DEMs, GOPs and Indy voters have no interest in Trump hanging around for an illegal third term. Overall, 75% of Americans ejected the idea. He may eventually get the message…
Ah, I recall from my boyhood the predictable stumble as names were called out. And the poker face I developed through long practice, as certain obvious 'corruptions' were uttered. That worked well. "Oh, I guess you've heard that before" usually resulted. I followed with a slow nod.
No enabling act like Hitler got after the Reichstag fire. And he's run afoul of the Supreme Court, his only hope of getting legal sanction. So he has to ignore, not use, the law. This imposes significant difficulties that Hitler did not have.
It took Hitler nearly four years to complete the subjugation of the army, which was the dominant element in the German system -- equivalent in its way to our view of our court system.
The real distinction was that in Germany, almost no one believed in democracy, while in the United States perhaps 40% do.
Yep. Wild market swings are great opportunities for those who know when and what direction the swings will be. It's just too easy to scam the system for insiders, and I'm guessing there are more than a few.
Yes and tRump’s #1 contributor also has the #1 scam to sell: A multi-trillion $ scheme to colonize Mars. Who but Donald tRump would put a “Department Of Government Efficiency” in the hands of the man with the most preposterous and inefficient way imaginable, to waste taxpayer dollars?!
My friend in Wisconsin had been on Elon’s Starlink because his local cable provider’s Internet was piss-poor. Musk’s toxicity caused him to switch from Starlink to a cell tower-based service from TMobile, and his internet is now twice as fast as Starlink at half the cost.
So there’s another business Elon is ruining, as his space-detritus pollutes low Earth orbit making space travel dangerous.
Elon is yet another toxic billionnaire with a reverse-Midas touch.
Rupert Murdoch, Donald tRump, Elon Musk. I just can’t figure out who’s Moe, who’s Larry and who’s Curly.
I grew up with rats (Irving the 1st was the first one and Bella and Maxine were the last). They'd all be insulted saying musk is one of them - he's not. Rats are smarter and nicer (and cute).
One thread nobody pulled (not sure if I missed the reporting) was trumps early edict (such a delicate way of saying evil) to cease FCPA investigations. Guarantee nobody related to anyone living/working in WH was under investigation for FCPA violations. Definitely nobody.
The Treasury secretary announcing a major policy change isn't even the worst of it. The whole administration is a "huge ethical breach." Threatening American citizens with deportation, cutting funds for cancer research, erasing minorities from government websites, the list of ethical lapses just keeps on going and going like a demented Energizer bunny. With friends like this administration, who needs enemies?
A country whereby the parties can be bought and paid for by big donors creates a corrupt and unfair system was just taken to the next level of corruption by none other than Mob boss Donald, the opportunist himself. Roy Cohen taught him well. Lie, cheat, and steal. He doesn't need to do any of his nefarious crimes behind closed doors. He now believes he owns the whole system. Someone must find the avenues quickly to remove him before our country is irreparable.
Arghhhhh ... yep and a judge allowed the felon to keep them all. I think about that daily because national security is talked about daily. Bathroom reading material ... wonder who went in there to take a xxx and read ...
Pull back the curtain hiding the bully, and a coward is nakedly exposed...note to universities, news media, etc., tRump can be had, just call him out and watch him run back to Mar-a-Lago and frantically and maniacally post nonstop on his SM platform.
Very true. I wonder why more people/companies don't try this. Are they worried that Trump will order the DOJ to launch an investigation of them? Worried about some other kind of revenge that Trump will take in the future?
A major source of Trump’s problems stem from the fact that his oversized ego supersedes his very shallow intellect. His actions, driven by ego, fall squarely into the Dunning-Kruger effect. In essence, he’s convinced that he knows more about a subject than he actually does, resulting in ill-advised decisions. That’s why he thinks that tariffs are free money that he can bully/extort from less powerful countries, not a tax on American consumers that will decrease GDP.
gee i think russia got that message when Reagon committed that nato wouldnt move 1 inch east of germany in exchange 4 german reunification. USA under Clinton took only 6 months 2 break that commitment.
as churchill (allegedly) said, " americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted"
i think that ship well and truly sailed a long time ago.
This analysis is right in so many ways. Mobsters will ALWAYS be mobsters. Wise up American voters. Those of you who didn’t vote Democrat in 2024 are getting what you deserve. But the rest of us certainly don’t deserve your absolute ignorance and stupidity.
His base cares more about crushing DEI and other racist . sexist things. They voted about their frustrations and anger. They voted for having judges in their image. Trump and his crew are profiting from the culture divide and the fact that men can’t afford to support a family or buy a home and feel left out. Trump won big time on the anti immigrant sentiment. So even if they have less money, they can still own the libs.
MAGA loves Donald because he hates the same people that they hate. That is immigrants with dark skins, liberals, readers of the NYT, people who love education and knowledge, LGBT, and so forth. They know that he is not doing anything for them economically but as long as he "owns" the liberals, all is well in MAGA land.
You got it. Racism and sexism is far from being eradicated. We were dreamers in the 70s and eighties. You know Hitler almost won the war. Just a few military mistakes like Dunkirk and the Russian invasion where Hitler chose Stalingrad over Moscow. But we had a lot of Nazis here and in America and we wouldn’t let the Jews come here for safety and refuge.
The economic pain of the middle class tracks in a straight line to the tax policies in the past that poured trillions into rich pockets. We have national resources in abundance, but we can’t find the intelligence to use them properly or effectively.
The one thing that amazes me is the attitude of billionaires to the concept of their being taxed in order to improve the lives of other humans ! How does anybody have such an attitude - they appear to never have enough billions$ & always declare any tax increase as unfair. How much better the world is when there are no hungry humans begging on the streets seems to escape their notice ! Yet countries like Denmark are the most highly taxed & also the happiest countries on this planet ! Maybe schooling should include education on the principles of what makes a happy human, because in the US it's always about how much of the precious loot you can accrue to yourself - hence the fierce battle to get a leg up above everybody around you !
Don’t forget that Theil said that when women got the right to vote that was the end of civilization.Peter theil along with Bessant and Grenelle and Tim Scott are all billionaire homosexual men married to other men. They have completely turned their backs on the gay community and joined the MAGA cult. As a feminist I find this repulsive.
The republican/religious right wing excels in PR and propaganda. In recent years, the right has set the agenda in politics and culture with the culture wars. In this past election, right wing and republican PR ran a constant theme of "sky high inflation" "terrible economy" "sleepy Joe was mismanaging the economy, foreign policy, and (you name it)" "immigrant rapists and murderers are running rampant"
and so forth.
The republicans are good at PR and getting elected to office. But once in office the only thing that they know to do is cut taxes on the wealthy and cut back on government regulation and services. Whatever the problem is, the republicans will say that the solution is to cut taxes on the rich.
The Democrats have to come up with a way to get their message out (if they have one). The republican media sets the agenda and Democrats have a hard time breaking through the onslaught.
Rep. Clayburn is a great guy. But if Democratic ideas are perfect; Democratic messaging is perfect; and Democrats are great at governing, why are Democrats not good at winning elections?
As Mitch says, "People who win elections make policy; people who lose elections go home and find other work." In politics it all happens on election day.
Sounds like you are saying that the Democrats should rely on the media to get the message out. But the loudest media is right-wing media and much of the "mainstream" media is busy being "fair and balanced." There was a period last year when all the "mainstream" media talked about was "Biden's mental decline."
The voters have an attention span of about 15 minutes and a memory span of the same. In politics one needs a message that will fit on a bumper sticker and said message has to be repeated often.
The Democrats cannot rely on the media. They have to tell the voters why they should be elected.
At the national level the Democrats are getting close to being a permanent minority party. They probably will not control the Senate in the next twenty years. The federal courts are stacked against the Democrats.
The trump administration is looking for more judges they can charge with immigration crimes. What the judge did is plain dumb . The right loves it. She knew ICE was there. And plus he was charged with domestic violence. Not a great situation to risk a good judges career.
True. The insider trading activities after Bessent disclosed the material policy U-turn damaged the credibility of the US securities market, adding to the chaos already made by Trump, I will not surprise if cost of capital becomes more expesive and investors try to get out of USA.
No called me about any of this! Hide the ball is dirty pool. A hedge fund manager gets together with other hedge fund managers and shares secrets. Why didn't he just use Signal like the defense people do? At least we could intercept that.
Aren't they already? I'd move my money out if I could but I'm too small of a fish to make use of the Big Boy Tricks. I'm stuck watching my IRA drop and probably my SS and Medicare as well.
He can’t run a casino, he can’t run a country, he can only run his mouth. But give him respect, he may be the most successful con-man in modern history.
They run the country like a privately held company. No board of directors. No accountability. No rules. Just keep the boss happy. Don’t worry about the customers (suckers and losers) - a good marketing department (fox news) can handle that. And remember: never let the truth get in the way of good BS/propaganda.
We humans are driven to try to make sense of what comes out of other people’s mouths. It has to make some kind of sense. We puzzle over poems or the works of James Joyce. The more we ponder the better we understand.
Ponder Trump at your peril. There are no depths just a chaotic bundle of horrid instincts: thrill of bullying, joy in belittling, delight in doing stupid things because it demonstrates more power and control than doing sensible things…
I’m just a small potato who worked hard, lived below my means, invested steadily and believed in the upward-trending regression to the mean of the stock market. I ended up with enough funds to last my life in a comfortable retirement. That these clowns and thieves currently running the country would mess with the finances of the millions of people like me is maddening. They are turning our pockets inside out and tossing us in the unregulated spin cycle of a giant, corrupt machine designed to wash out our assets. I thank god for people like Paul Krugman (wish there were more of him) who tell the unvarnished truth about what’s going on.
Yes, there's a fair disclosure problem when the Secretary of the Treasury disseminates information that will impact the market to a select audience of institutional and high end investors and traders at an investment bank client conference. This information should have made been in a public statement available to everyone at the same time.
Yes, Trump surrendered because he's seen the data that is coming down the pike and has heard the complaints.
But he's still clinging to the idea that China and Japan need him more than he needs them. He just proved that canard false with his surrender.
Notice neither Japan nor China have said anything about "making a deal." They won't because, to use his phrase, they now hold "the cards."
Meanwhile Trump is trying to end the UN prohibition against large states stealing small states by urging Ukraine to give up Crimea and occupied parts of Eastern Ukraine.
This time the toothpaste will NOT go back in the tube AND Trump will be blamed for the disaster.
ps just as Trump caved on the Trade War (the costs of which will be far higher than his equally stupid renegotiation of NAFTA) he will cave on cuts to SS and Medicaid.
And that means the disastrous fiscal outlook obtained from CBO by Senator Merkley comes into play (which likely assumes far more voluntary tax paying compliance than will manifest) .
In that scenario, deficits and debt are larger than they are in CBO’s extended baseline (see Figure 1):
• Primary deficits over the first decade of the projection period (fiscal years 2026 to 2035) are about $6 trillion larger. By 2055, the primary deficit equals 3.8 percent of GDP, 1.9 percentage points higher than in CBO’s extended baseline.
• The total deficit in 2055 equals 12.0 percent of GDP, 4.7 percentage points higher than in CBO’s extended baseline. • Debt held by the public in 2055 equals 220 percent of GDP, 63 percentage points higher than in CBO’s extended baseline.
• The average interest rate on federal debt in 2055 equals 4.0 percent, 0.3 percentage points higher than in CBO’s extended baseline.
• Real GNP per person is 3.3 percent lower in 2055 than in CBO’s extended baseline (or $4,375 lower, in 2025 dollars).
With trade to China currently embargoed, the US Defense Department in disarray, and Trump being OK with invasions, the window for China to invade Taiwan is wide open.
The marketing campaign needed to make taxes palatable will require psychological research behind it, and yet, many of the things Americans say they want require we (and that means the wealthy as well) pay more. We will, too, whether it’s federally or locally since the feds are trying to force the states to pick up the slack with red states finally missing the contributions of CA and NY that have kept them afloat. Until we change our tunes, we will continue to pay more for healthcare, education, and transportation than the rest of the world.
The people of the red States won't miss those contributions, because they don't even know they're getting them. For example, Medicaid isn't called "Medicaid" at the State level. In Tennessee, it's called "Tenncare", and the citizenry isn't aware that much of the money comes from the Federal government.
In NC it’s called Medicaid. I think we will know. We aren’t that stupid. We know when they tell us nobody is paying. We know when we have to pay the whole chemo bill. We know when we have to pay for dialysis ourselves. We know when the assisted living shuts down and mama gets sent home. Three largest retirement states: FL, TX, NC. Nursing homes gonna take a hit. People going to have to quit jobs to take care of the old daddy who doesn’t know who you are. Euthanasia will be in committee soon. Pro-life my 🫏!
TRUMP'S TERRIBLE TARIFF TANTRUM keeps getting worse. The only things that get through to Trump are when he either isn't being paid attention to, or when public opinion turns strongly against him, because first, foremost, and forever, whatever Trump does, is all about the world's leading narcissist and how it affects him.
A hallmark sign of narcissism is having difficulty admitting you are wrong. Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing a major change in China tariff policy is a great way to keep Trump from admitting that he was wrong in trying to bully China into calling him and begging for a meeting to swear fealty and kiss his ring. Turns out it worked. Seems like later Trump said final tariffs on China will be way lower and now China has announced that the door is wide open for tariff negotiations.
Standing up to bullies works every time when you hold a stronger position. As Dean Baker writes, in purchasing power parity, China's economy has been larger than America's for awhile and the gap is growing in China's favor:
"China is projected to add almost $5.1 trillion to its GDP between 2024 and 2026. The United States is projected to add just over $2.5 trillion. China’s GDP first passed US GDP in 2016, but it has added to the gap rapidly in the intervening years so that its economy is now more than 30 percent larger. It looks like Donald Trump’s trade policies will increase the gap even more rapidly."
I was being sarcastic about buying a Chinese EV, but glad to hear I could get a Nissan Leaf EV for $22K! Since it wasn't that funny on reflection, I deleted that bit. Don't think Chinese EVs will be allowed to be shipped to America anytime soon even with a 100% or more tariff.
Actually, the Who's the Biggest can depend on how you convert the currencies. A few years ago the #1 was debatable because one quite reasonable approach (values in the generally pretty much free market of international trading) conflicted with another quite reasonable method (purchasing power parity or PPP), and the pundits logically treated it as a tie. Then China hit a wall when their super housing builder went broke, so the USA was again considered on top. China is now coming back strong, and the pundits perhaps are conceding the #1 to China; and certainly on present trends that's right.
Trump desperately seeks money. Shaking down trade partners was a bad plan, so he now goes after student loans (about $1.76 trillion). Place your bets of what may be next! (just make sure it hits a $1 trillion target or else Trump is not interested).
Trump will cycle through EVERY crypto scam on Earth, always moving to the newest one.
One presumes the reason Trump pardoned some very bad "Ponzi scheme" originators is to learn from them about untraceable money. (When "Ponzi scheme" is considered bad by Musk, then MUMP must, yet again, be projecting what they consider "very GOOD things".)
Well, if the sector doesn't do as it is prompted to do, the gang in the WH won't reap the benefits.
They'll term it 'floating an idea' or 'making observations about possible futures' but it's clearly the actions of a team more comfortable with pursuing criminal activity than progressing upon their merits.
Paul, just a wish you have a great bike trip with your wife. This blog is the best thing on Substack and I look forward to your return and your crystal clear writing and spot on analysis.
Paul and Heather Cox Richardson are keeping me sane.
Both great reading !
plus timothy snyder…thank God for these thinkers. But the bad news just keeps coming
It’s discouraging all right.
Yes, and Paul stay healthy and get some rest...your wit and erudition are treasured. We'll all be here when you get back.
Hey other John, as my mom used to say, it's the thought that counts.
But yes, who truly knows, my guess is he scans them from time to time
Channel Fausto Coppi...
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, market's up, S&P +2.5%. I know, I know, it means little, but WTF? Retail investors' traps? Tax cuts up ramp? I know a bunch of critters in that neighborhood and they are everything they merit to be called. They are, however, categorically not dim. As Coppi said more then once, booh
Yeah, and hopefully they'll let him come back in the US :)
agree!
Trump backing down when confronted is a well-established pattern. And we all understand that the chaos he creates is bad for business (and for everything else in American life).
But it's the long-term--perhaps permanent--damage Trump has wrought that is most concerning. No business leader can trust anything Trump says. And no foreign leader can trust anything the United States says, offers, signs, or commits to. In his first term, Trump abrogated agreements to which the US was signatory (the Paris Climate Accords, for example. Or NAFTA, as another.). This term, he's tossing treaties over the side.
Any country that deals with the United States now understands that, no matter what any President negotiates and agrees to, the next President may well by a childish imbecile who simply refuses to recognize the agreement. Thus is the United States made both an unreliable correspondent and an object of scorn.
And it is not like there wasn't precedent from trump 1... Yet, for the most part, the investor class went all in for him and they have no one to blame but themselves. The regular person on the streets doesn't have the wherewithall to buy up big blocks of stocks at the (new) low or short-sell them. This level of corruption has turned us into a banana republic in 3 months.
Weren't we were a banana republic when Biden came in and he dug us out? Docs and nurses were "protecting" themselves from covid in plastic garbage bags because orders were literally being stolen/hijacked by our own gov. Routes had to change (by Governors who ordered their own supplies for their constituents because mump sure as heck wasn't giving it out for free). The corruption goes on like an EverReady battery
Someone in Ghiat or Applebaum's substack said the full takeover of this country would be done faster than hitler was able to and it seems to be true.
The level of corruption would fill an encyclopedia. The evil brought to this world is unfathomed to me.
There's polling, cited by Dan Pfieffer on The Message Box today, showing very healthy majority wants Trump to respect court orders...and the courts are not cooperating with Trump.
Hitler got legal sanction for emergency powers after the Reichstag fire. He could thus use the legal system. Trump can't.
He can't ? If he creates enough chaos he could.
"One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship." ...Orwell
Millions of people are already out in the streets with peaceful protests, and it will continue to grow. There's only one of him. We can take him.
His abject climb down on tariffs indicates he doesn't have "the necessary" to foment real chaos. And he would be blamed for it, if he did, polling already makes clear. Suspect he's aware...hence the climb down.
RC,
The courts are starting to do their jobs. Also, a recent survey shows that majorities of DEMs, GOPs and Indy voters have no interest in Trump hanging around for an illegal third term. Overall, 75% of Americans ejected the idea. He may eventually get the message…
BTW, I like your unusual surname.
Ah, I recall from my boyhood the predictable stumble as names were called out. And the poker face I developed through long practice, as certain obvious 'corruptions' were uttered. That worked well. "Oh, I guess you've heard that before" usually resulted. I followed with a slow nod.
Trump, in his first 52 days, achieved a greater takeover than did Hitler in the same time span.
No enabling act like Hitler got after the Reichstag fire. And he's run afoul of the Supreme Court, his only hope of getting legal sanction. So he has to ignore, not use, the law. This imposes significant difficulties that Hitler did not have.
Yes. This was spelled out in The Atlantic’s daily notes by a German scholar (Robert? You can look up his name). He titled it first 52 days.
It took Hitler nearly four years to complete the subjugation of the army, which was the dominant element in the German system -- equivalent in its way to our view of our court system.
The real distinction was that in Germany, almost no one believed in democracy, while in the United States perhaps 40% do.
I suspect the chaos is cover for the scams.
Yep. Wild market swings are great opportunities for those who know when and what direction the swings will be. It's just too easy to scam the system for insiders, and I'm guessing there are more than a few.
I agree.
Yes and tRump’s #1 contributor also has the #1 scam to sell: A multi-trillion $ scheme to colonize Mars. Who but Donald tRump would put a “Department Of Government Efficiency” in the hands of the man with the most preposterous and inefficient way imaginable, to waste taxpayer dollars?!
My friend in Wisconsin had been on Elon’s Starlink because his local cable provider’s Internet was piss-poor. Musk’s toxicity caused him to switch from Starlink to a cell tower-based service from TMobile, and his internet is now twice as fast as Starlink at half the cost.
So there’s another business Elon is ruining, as his space-detritus pollutes low Earth orbit making space travel dangerous.
Elon is yet another toxic billionnaire with a reverse-Midas touch.
Rupert Murdoch, Donald tRump, Elon Musk. I just can’t figure out who’s Moe, who’s Larry and who’s Curly.
Musk always ends in rat he he he
I grew up with rats (Irving the 1st was the first one and Bella and Maxine were the last). They'd all be insulted saying musk is one of them - he's not. Rats are smarter and nicer (and cute).
True
Even from that perch on the other side of the rainbow you have seen right through the fog.
One thread nobody pulled (not sure if I missed the reporting) was trumps early edict (such a delicate way of saying evil) to cease FCPA investigations. Guarantee nobody related to anyone living/working in WH was under investigation for FCPA violations. Definitely nobody.
The Treasury secretary announcing a major policy change isn't even the worst of it. The whole administration is a "huge ethical breach." Threatening American citizens with deportation, cutting funds for cancer research, erasing minorities from government websites, the list of ethical lapses just keeps on going and going like a demented Energizer bunny. With friends like this administration, who needs enemies?
According to conservatives, the most patriotic thing you can do is to wish for the destruction of the government of the United States.
Which makes Trump the Truest Patriot EVAR!
A country whereby the parties can be bought and paid for by big donors creates a corrupt and unfair system was just taken to the next level of corruption by none other than Mob boss Donald, the opportunist himself. Roy Cohen taught him well. Lie, cheat, and steal. He doesn't need to do any of his nefarious crimes behind closed doors. He now believes he owns the whole system. Someone must find the avenues quickly to remove him before our country is irreparable.
Much is already irreparable. The Roberts Court can take a bow.
C-22 ,
So right- and it’s not even a
“ bribe” if those big donors that
get private meetings with government officials pay up after they receive their “ gift” - -
it’s called a gratuity !
Started with boxes of secret documents
Arghhhhh ... yep and a judge allowed the felon to keep them all. I think about that daily because national security is talked about daily. Bathroom reading material ... wonder who went in there to take a xxx and read ...
Pull back the curtain hiding the bully, and a coward is nakedly exposed...note to universities, news media, etc., tRump can be had, just call him out and watch him run back to Mar-a-Lago and frantically and maniacally post nonstop on his SM platform.
Very true. I wonder why more people/companies don't try this. Are they worried that Trump will order the DOJ to launch an investigation of them? Worried about some other kind of revenge that Trump will take in the future?
A major source of Trump’s problems stem from the fact that his oversized ego supersedes his very shallow intellect. His actions, driven by ego, fall squarely into the Dunning-Kruger effect. In essence, he’s convinced that he knows more about a subject than he actually does, resulting in ill-advised decisions. That’s why he thinks that tariffs are free money that he can bully/extort from less powerful countries, not a tax on American consumers that will decrease GDP.
The Clash song “should I stay or should
I go” is an appropriate song now. To
gee i think russia got that message when Reagon committed that nato wouldnt move 1 inch east of germany in exchange 4 german reunification. USA under Clinton took only 6 months 2 break that commitment.
as churchill (allegedly) said, " americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted"
i think that ship well and truly sailed a long time ago.
This analysis is right in so many ways. Mobsters will ALWAYS be mobsters. Wise up American voters. Those of you who didn’t vote Democrat in 2024 are getting what you deserve. But the rest of us certainly don’t deserve your absolute ignorance and stupidity.
Trump has been engaging in insider trading and market manipulation since day one of his tariff nonsense.
He started long, long before that. He practiced pump and dump more than 50 years ago, with his daddy...
This is just stock Roy Cohn training kicking in again. Roy taught Trump to "Never EVER admit defeat".
Trump has always pretended his most desperate failures were successes. I wonder whether Trump's followers will ever figure this out.
His base cares more about crushing DEI and other racist . sexist things. They voted about their frustrations and anger. They voted for having judges in their image. Trump and his crew are profiting from the culture divide and the fact that men can’t afford to support a family or buy a home and feel left out. Trump won big time on the anti immigrant sentiment. So even if they have less money, they can still own the libs.
MAGA loves Donald because he hates the same people that they hate. That is immigrants with dark skins, liberals, readers of the NYT, people who love education and knowledge, LGBT, and so forth. They know that he is not doing anything for them economically but as long as he "owns" the liberals, all is well in MAGA land.
You got it. Racism and sexism is far from being eradicated. We were dreamers in the 70s and eighties. You know Hitler almost won the war. Just a few military mistakes like Dunkirk and the Russian invasion where Hitler chose Stalingrad over Moscow. But we had a lot of Nazis here and in America and we wouldn’t let the Jews come here for safety and refuge.
The economic pain of the middle class tracks in a straight line to the tax policies in the past that poured trillions into rich pockets. We have national resources in abundance, but we can’t find the intelligence to use them properly or effectively.
The one thing that amazes me is the attitude of billionaires to the concept of their being taxed in order to improve the lives of other humans ! How does anybody have such an attitude - they appear to never have enough billions$ & always declare any tax increase as unfair. How much better the world is when there are no hungry humans begging on the streets seems to escape their notice ! Yet countries like Denmark are the most highly taxed & also the happiest countries on this planet ! Maybe schooling should include education on the principles of what makes a happy human, because in the US it's always about how much of the precious loot you can accrue to yourself - hence the fierce battle to get a leg up above everybody around you !
It is almost a belief in immortality and that wealth can be taken with you. Maybe I should start a pyramid company.
Don’t forget that Theil said that when women got the right to vote that was the end of civilization.Peter theil along with Bessant and Grenelle and Tim Scott are all billionaire homosexual men married to other men. They have completely turned their backs on the gay community and joined the MAGA cult. As a feminist I find this repulsive.
I find it hard to believe that Milton Friedman said that. Where and when did he say that.
A cultural divide created and amplified by the GOP and the legacy media which carries its water.
Fools
Don’t look at my right hand…
The republican/religious right wing excels in PR and propaganda. In recent years, the right has set the agenda in politics and culture with the culture wars. In this past election, right wing and republican PR ran a constant theme of "sky high inflation" "terrible economy" "sleepy Joe was mismanaging the economy, foreign policy, and (you name it)" "immigrant rapists and murderers are running rampant"
and so forth.
The republicans are good at PR and getting elected to office. But once in office the only thing that they know to do is cut taxes on the wealthy and cut back on government regulation and services. Whatever the problem is, the republicans will say that the solution is to cut taxes on the rich.
The Democrats have to come up with a way to get their message out (if they have one). The republican media sets the agenda and Democrats have a hard time breaking through the onslaught.
Rep. Clayburn is a great guy. But if Democratic ideas are perfect; Democratic messaging is perfect; and Democrats are great at governing, why are Democrats not good at winning elections?
As Mitch says, "People who win elections make policy; people who lose elections go home and find other work." In politics it all happens on election day.
Sounds like you are saying that the Democrats should rely on the media to get the message out. But the loudest media is right-wing media and much of the "mainstream" media is busy being "fair and balanced." There was a period last year when all the "mainstream" media talked about was "Biden's mental decline."
The voters have an attention span of about 15 minutes and a memory span of the same. In politics one needs a message that will fit on a bumper sticker and said message has to be repeated often.
The Democrats cannot rely on the media. They have to tell the voters why they should be elected.
At the national level the Democrats are getting close to being a permanent minority party. They probably will not control the Senate in the next twenty years. The federal courts are stacked against the Democrats.
If messaging is not the problem, then what is?
The trump administration is looking for more judges they can charge with immigration crimes. What the judge did is plain dumb . The right loves it. She knew ICE was there. And plus he was charged with domestic violence. Not a great situation to risk a good judges career.
The followers don’t want to really think for themselves. They want segregated schools and a segregated society.
True. The insider trading activities after Bessent disclosed the material policy U-turn damaged the credibility of the US securities market, adding to the chaos already made by Trump, I will not surprise if cost of capital becomes more expesive and investors try to get out of USA.
Very good point on the trustworthyness of markets.
This statement will also lead supply chains to freeze, as participants elect to wait until the dust settles. This is hugely disruptive.
They are improvising as they go along with the global economy at stake.
No called me about any of this! Hide the ball is dirty pool. A hedge fund manager gets together with other hedge fund managers and shares secrets. Why didn't he just use Signal like the defense people do? At least we could intercept that.
Aren't they already? I'd move my money out if I could but I'm too small of a fish to make use of the Big Boy Tricks. I'm stuck watching my IRA drop and probably my SS and Medicare as well.
He can’t run a casino, he can’t run a country, he can only run his mouth. But give him respect, he may be the most successful con-man in modern history.
Since weeks it smells like insider trading schemes in unimaginable heights. 😤
Trump and his cronies even bragged about it in the Oval Office caught on camera.
These people make me so damn angry, I have no words for it. 😤
What did Bessent think?
Did he tell Trump that the big WallStreet guys and other billionaires need their "fair" share, so they stop complaining about tariffs and stuff?
😑😤
They run the country like a privately held company. No board of directors. No accountability. No rules. Just keep the boss happy. Don’t worry about the customers (suckers and losers) - a good marketing department (fox news) can handle that. And remember: never let the truth get in the way of good BS/propaganda.
We humans are driven to try to make sense of what comes out of other people’s mouths. It has to make some kind of sense. We puzzle over poems or the works of James Joyce. The more we ponder the better we understand.
Ponder Trump at your peril. There are no depths just a chaotic bundle of horrid instincts: thrill of bullying, joy in belittling, delight in doing stupid things because it demonstrates more power and control than doing sensible things…
As Twain put it, "Of course truth is stranger than fiction. Good fiction must make sense."
I’m just a small potato who worked hard, lived below my means, invested steadily and believed in the upward-trending regression to the mean of the stock market. I ended up with enough funds to last my life in a comfortable retirement. That these clowns and thieves currently running the country would mess with the finances of the millions of people like me is maddening. They are turning our pockets inside out and tossing us in the unregulated spin cycle of a giant, corrupt machine designed to wash out our assets. I thank god for people like Paul Krugman (wish there were more of him) who tell the unvarnished truth about what’s going on.
I am in exactly the same boat. Played by the rules, lived below my means. Now stuck because it's too late to start over.
PK
“ Turning our pockets inside out “
We called them “ Hoover Pockets “
in the past Great Depression- a dubious award to the presiding President whose philosophy was to
essentially do nothing.
This time around our “ Trump Pockets “ will be the result of his self inflicted injuries.
Yes, there's a fair disclosure problem when the Secretary of the Treasury disseminates information that will impact the market to a select audience of institutional and high end investors and traders at an investment bank client conference. This information should have made been in a public statement available to everyone at the same time.
Agreed all around.
Yes, Trump surrendered because he's seen the data that is coming down the pike and has heard the complaints.
But he's still clinging to the idea that China and Japan need him more than he needs them. He just proved that canard false with his surrender.
Notice neither Japan nor China have said anything about "making a deal." They won't because, to use his phrase, they now hold "the cards."
Meanwhile Trump is trying to end the UN prohibition against large states stealing small states by urging Ukraine to give up Crimea and occupied parts of Eastern Ukraine.
This time the toothpaste will NOT go back in the tube AND Trump will be blamed for the disaster.
ps just as Trump caved on the Trade War (the costs of which will be far higher than his equally stupid renegotiation of NAFTA) he will cave on cuts to SS and Medicaid.
And that means the disastrous fiscal outlook obtained from CBO by Senator Merkley comes into play (which likely assumes far more voluntary tax paying compliance than will manifest) .
In that scenario, deficits and debt are larger than they are in CBO’s extended baseline (see Figure 1):
• Primary deficits over the first decade of the projection period (fiscal years 2026 to 2035) are about $6 trillion larger. By 2055, the primary deficit equals 3.8 percent of GDP, 1.9 percentage points higher than in CBO’s extended baseline.
• The total deficit in 2055 equals 12.0 percent of GDP, 4.7 percentage points higher than in CBO’s extended baseline. • Debt held by the public in 2055 equals 220 percent of GDP, 63 percentage points higher than in CBO’s extended baseline.
• The average interest rate on federal debt in 2055 equals 4.0 percent, 0.3 percentage points higher than in CBO’s extended baseline.
• Real GNP per person is 3.3 percent lower in 2055 than in CBO’s extended baseline (or $4,375 lower, in 2025 dollars).
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-04/Merkley-Letter.pdf
With trade to China currently embargoed, the US Defense Department in disarray, and Trump being OK with invasions, the window for China to invade Taiwan is wide open.
That isn’t the only country they have the jump on…
The marketing campaign needed to make taxes palatable will require psychological research behind it, and yet, many of the things Americans say they want require we (and that means the wealthy as well) pay more. We will, too, whether it’s federally or locally since the feds are trying to force the states to pick up the slack with red states finally missing the contributions of CA and NY that have kept them afloat. Until we change our tunes, we will continue to pay more for healthcare, education, and transportation than the rest of the world.
The people of the red States won't miss those contributions, because they don't even know they're getting them. For example, Medicaid isn't called "Medicaid" at the State level. In Tennessee, it's called "Tenncare", and the citizenry isn't aware that much of the money comes from the Federal government.
In NC it’s called Medicaid. I think we will know. We aren’t that stupid. We know when they tell us nobody is paying. We know when we have to pay the whole chemo bill. We know when we have to pay for dialysis ourselves. We know when the assisted living shuts down and mama gets sent home. Three largest retirement states: FL, TX, NC. Nursing homes gonna take a hit. People going to have to quit jobs to take care of the old daddy who doesn’t know who you are. Euthanasia will be in committee soon. Pro-life my 🫏!
a reminder of Trump's handicap in renegotiating Trade deals
nobody allowed "who thinks they know more than my father" - a claim that ensures the people who could solve this problem will NOT be hired
https://fox59.com/news/national-world/trump-jr-i-want-people-who-dont-think-they-know-better-than-father-in-cabinet/
TRUMP'S TERRIBLE TARIFF TANTRUM keeps getting worse. The only things that get through to Trump are when he either isn't being paid attention to, or when public opinion turns strongly against him, because first, foremost, and forever, whatever Trump does, is all about the world's leading narcissist and how it affects him.
A hallmark sign of narcissism is having difficulty admitting you are wrong. Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing a major change in China tariff policy is a great way to keep Trump from admitting that he was wrong in trying to bully China into calling him and begging for a meeting to swear fealty and kiss his ring. Turns out it worked. Seems like later Trump said final tariffs on China will be way lower and now China has announced that the door is wide open for tariff negotiations.
Standing up to bullies works every time when you hold a stronger position. As Dean Baker writes, in purchasing power parity, China's economy has been larger than America's for awhile and the gap is growing in China's favor:
"China is projected to add almost $5.1 trillion to its GDP between 2024 and 2026. The United States is projected to add just over $2.5 trillion. China’s GDP first passed US GDP in 2016, but it has added to the gap rapidly in the intervening years so that its economy is now more than 30 percent larger. It looks like Donald Trump’s trade policies will increase the gap even more rapidly."
https://cepr.net/publications/chinas-growth-leaves-usa-in-the-dust/
We bought a Nissan Leaf EV in Feb. for $22k. Better to buy Japanese than Chinese, imo.
Trump + GOP may be Brownshirts; but in the evil cruelty department, the Chinese CCP makes US conservatives look like rank amateurs.
I was being sarcastic about buying a Chinese EV, but glad to hear I could get a Nissan Leaf EV for $22K! Since it wasn't that funny on reflection, I deleted that bit. Don't think Chinese EVs will be allowed to be shipped to America anytime soon even with a 100% or more tariff.
Soon the tariffs will push that price up by 25% (?).
From what I’m reading, fewer ships are headed into ports. That should lower prices ya think?
Actually, the Who's the Biggest can depend on how you convert the currencies. A few years ago the #1 was debatable because one quite reasonable approach (values in the generally pretty much free market of international trading) conflicted with another quite reasonable method (purchasing power parity or PPP), and the pundits logically treated it as a tie. Then China hit a wall when their super housing builder went broke, so the USA was again considered on top. China is now coming back strong, and the pundits perhaps are conceding the #1 to China; and certainly on present trends that's right.
Trump desperately seeks money. Shaking down trade partners was a bad plan, so he now goes after student loans (about $1.76 trillion). Place your bets of what may be next! (just make sure it hits a $1 trillion target or else Trump is not interested).
Trump will cycle through EVERY crypto scam on Earth, always moving to the newest one.
One presumes the reason Trump pardoned some very bad "Ponzi scheme" originators is to learn from them about untraceable money. (When "Ponzi scheme" is considered bad by Musk, then MUMP must, yet again, be projecting what they consider "very GOOD things".)
Well, if the sector doesn't do as it is prompted to do, the gang in the WH won't reap the benefits.
They'll term it 'floating an idea' or 'making observations about possible futures' but it's clearly the actions of a team more comfortable with pursuing criminal activity than progressing upon their merits.