Small business psychology is easy to figure out. They really believe that every transaction is zero-sum. Every penny paid to employees, for instance, is a penny out of the businessman's pockets. Every penny paid on taxes or safety is a loss of a penny. Every competitor is a threat. Etc. And from their point of view, they might even be correct. They live in the here and now. They don't understand that more pay means better workers; that taxes buy good things for business; that competition can increase total trade.
A lot of big business believes this, too. Hence, the success of Costco, which unusually believes that transactions can be positive sum. It understands that it can be more profitable if it pays its employees more than the marginal wage needed to hire a warm body.
You would think journalists would know better but many seem to also believe the evidence-free belief that Republicans are better for the economy. Most are also loathe to point out that Republicans’ tax cuts for for the wealthy have always been budget-busters since that economic genius Reagan promoted the fairy tale that those tax cuts would pay for themselves with increased growth. That is how Republicans have been able to maintain the myth that they are the party of business/a strong economy.
Journalists should know better; Reagan's budget director David Stockman said in 1982 that they knew all along that the tax cuts wouldn't pay for themselves and that the entire point was simply to bring down the top marginal tax rate.
Journalists and news people like to talk about "cutting edge reporting" and so forth. But most of them just repeat what everyone else is saying. They repeat White House talking points or the talking points put out by politicians, I think most of them have turned their brains off.
It is hard to find good news sources which give facts and original thinking.
The Boris Johnson Tories went after the BBC a few years ago because it was reporting inconvenient facts. Now the Trump Republicans are following the same script with US media. The CBC won’t be safe if Canadians also eventually fall for reactionary “populism”. Here’s hoping Canadians have been watching the international political mobsters over the past 10 years and decide to hold the line.
In Canada, the people who want to take down the CBC aren't mobsters, they are just "low information individuals", which translated into simple English is - village idiots.
The conventional "wisdom" is that republicans are good for business. Often times that is not true, but many people continue to say they believe it. Many "journalists" keep repeating it.
I continue to be amazed, but I occasionally meet people who think that republicans are like Henry Cabot Lodge and President Eisenhower.
They are about 75 years behind the times and do not realize that the republican party of today is light years different from that in the 1950's and before.
Or journalists report that people think Republicans are better for the economy. They dare not provide any historical context that might disabuse people of this erroneous belief. Providing context is liberal bias, you see, or even fake news.
Journalists don't want to lose access so they repeat what people them so that they can get continued access. If they report the truth, they get sidelined.
Sadly, most journalists work for companies owned by the uber rich. Their mandate is no longer to expose the truth. It is to convince the masses that policies that only benefit the uber rich (flat taxes like tariffs) will also benefit them. I believe that type of persuasive message is called propaganda.
Exactly! I once ran a small business (11 employees). Early on I came to this conclusion: if you don't pay your people enough, you can't afford to fire them.
So this is the game let Trump burn himself out with dithering yo-yo stupidity. Then the lizards in grey suits slither in an tell Donald 'Time is up idiot yer a liability ya gotta go (we have this shit on you Donny see the videos) and after a lot of shouting and roaring behind closed doors but recorded by the 2025ers Trump falls on his sword and Vance takes over to cheers from Thiel et al and the real shit and dismantling of the remains of democracy quietly gradually gathers momentum til disUSA is back in the middle ages before the cancelled Midterms.
This is SO true! I've seen it so many times where a business, or corporation, will hire a person just to have a warm body. Then the management shakes their head wondering why retention is low and recruitment is high. This happens in the professional and technical services everywhere.
Years ago, I worked in a law firm where the partners referred to their associates as "fungible products." Then, after they'd lose one or two of their best associates, they would talk about being more "associate friendly - better working conditions/pay/hours/bonuses - but would soon fall back into type. They couldn't help themselves.
I left my firm about 10 years ago (retired), they probably had about 20 associates at their height, when I was there. They now have 5, if you don't count the owner's kid. (Who graduated law school, came to work for dad and became a "partner" after 2 years.)
For many small businesses, that's how they have to live. They don't have the resources to take chances, and especially if they are in retail, they see how fickle consumers can be. I don't blame them for thinking that these costs will hit them. Better workers don't mean much to small businesses, unless they are businesses that employ skilled workers.
My mimicry machine says this; and I use one that has links, so I can vet their numbers:
"Approximately 23.2% of new small businesses in the U.S. fail within their first year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analyzed in 2023. The failure rate increases over time, with 48% failing within five years and 65.3% closing within ten years."
I don't know what small businesses you are familiar with, but that was never true in the small businesses my family ran. They paid wages commensurate with the community standards and rewarded people for good work. Ziggy has overgeneralized.
A lot of business people in all sorts of businesses thought that Trump would lower their taxes, free them from bureaucratic burdens and lower the cost of living. Most small businesses don’t enjoy big financial cushions. But like most voters, red or blue, they really do not understand what government actually does, at least when it functions as we want it to, nor how hard it is to get it right. So why wouldn’t small businesses owners,who are especially vulnerable to inflation, go with guy who promised to bring inflation down?
Nonsense. Blanketing small business owners reveals vast ignorance. There is no one “small business psychology,” just as there is no one kind of small business. Many small businesses help each other out and have friendly fair relationships with employees, who are often enough, also their friends outside of work. The links between employee, owner, colleague, and customer are often short and personal. Everyone knows how everyone else is hit by the big stuff, like weather or the economy. Fair competition doesn’t erase cooperation, and long term thinking is just as prevalent among small business people as it is in other professions.
It's good to rebut exaggerated claims. Now, if people would start with "Too [optional adverb] many small businesses..." the world's level of accuracy would be increased considerably.
No doubt Trump havoc is most severe for the small business owner and working class Americans while the wealthy again make out like bandits.
I have, however, learned how to tap into the myth of trickledown:
I sell my portfolio ROI and have cash on hand to value buy in the red/dip. I’ll make pennies on the billions the wealthy make in those same intentional downturns.
Trump has declared Himself as the ultimate authority of everything: the weather, economics, international relations, geography, technology, culture, the arts, health, ... Hell, now he has even declared Himself the ultimate authority on the constitution. It's unconstitutional to disagree with Him. Even the constitution is unconstitutional for banning Him from having a third term!
As for the populace, it comes down to brain function. For instance, I know conservatives who are compassionate and generous but only toward people they know and situations they can have definite control over. Most liberals have more agility while speaking and when making plans for a future that is in a state of flux. I make a game out of guessing the political party of Senators and Representatives when I first see them on TV. In general Republicans are more inclined to read from a piece of paper. The oddest thing is the conservative distrust of data whether it is scientific or economic. You would think that would be right up their alley. I wonder if many conservatives are more susceptible to the manipulative propaganda that comes their way.
Conservatives distrust data whether it's scientific or economic because it usually doesn't tell them what they want to hear, but they also live in a universe where every matter is settled by appealing to authority and just think they need the RIGHT authorities to tell them what to think.
Hence the proliferation of conservative "think tanks" like Cato and Heritage decades ago preceded by a developing hate for academics and collegiate researchers.
I would love to know why thinking and debating ideas is so uncomfortable for conservatives. Is it a deficiency of our public schools ? I am thinking that children of liberal parents need more courses in accounting while children with conservative parents could spend time debating ideas.
The definition of political conservatism is continuing to do the same thing regardless of scientific advancements and increased information. When the fundamental basis of your political philosophy is to continue operating like it’s 1100 CE, debate is irrelevant.
(BTW, your suggestion for accounting classes for liberals would help advance their causes. I’ve witnessed too many instances where they have a core idea that would benefit society but fail to advance it because they can’t explain the accounting.)
I know you are so what am I? Wait, that's not it. I know I am but what are you? Okay closer, maybe. Knock, knock. Who's there? Your sense of self. I don't have one of those. Fine, be that way.
Anybody who voted for the wannabe dictator should have listened to Rick Wilson who correctly stated that everything Traitor Trump touches dies! Now it is your business and the U.S. economy! Nobody wins a trade war!!!
This is a great summary - it hadn't really dawned on me until we got the real world example of "Trump divination" on the Houthi group chat, with Stepehen Miller swooping in to declare he had heard Trump demand bombing, therefore bombing must occur.
As a dane and european I was shocked to know how much Europe is hated by their main Ally. We always saw USA as our friend and protector. We fought, bled and died with you in Iraq and Afghanistan. We saw USA as a guanrantee for democracy and order. But the houthi group chat has made it clear, there is a new world order, and I am truly saddened by that.
That's because we are currently governed by ignoramuses and morons. Sincerest apologies. Most intelligent enlightened Americans don't think like that. Currently, the Dark Ages is governing, sadly.
I know at least half of your country does not think like that, and even Republicans don't all agree with Trump, Vance etc. But I would so wish, they would to speak up. Vance is very aggressive, he just said something like America would protect itself even if it meant taking over Greenland "come hell or high water". There are treaties from 1951 and 2004, that allow America to have bases on Greenland in order to defend itself. Today there are only 200 american soldiers on the Pituffik (Thule) airbase, but earlier there were several thousand soldiers on 17 bases around Greenland. After the Berlin Wall fell however, neither the States nor Denmark thought, it was necessary with a strong defence. Of course things have changed and we are reinvesting in the defence of Greenland, and if the USA wanted to come back to the bases they could, or even build new ones. It is not necessary to take over Greenland to defend the States at all, the greenlandish people are worried and scared, and so are the rest of us in the south of the kingdom. We can't believe we are being threatened like that, and peace even world peace is given as a reason. But thank you so much for the anwser, it is nice to hear from a friendly ally :-)
This is an extremely important point. Trump’s supporters see him as the ultimate authority on everything, which of course is a ridiculous concept for anyone, especially for someone with limited education like Trump. Where do they get this unfounded belief in an almighty and all knowing savior ? This has to be ended or we will have an autocracy forever.
My personal favorite..."Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." - John Kenneth Galbraith
In fact, since Arthur Laffer and his "tax cuts pay for themselves" bulllshit, Galbraith's quip has been and continues to be the holy writ of the US Right.
He was a brilliant man who also said, "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
PS: I'm not sure why he singled out "modern" conservatives. Seems like it's part of their worldview's DNA?
Hence modern conservatives and their love of Ayn Rand. She gave them permission to be selfish and a philosophy to justify it. What I find so hypocritical is the claim to also be Christian. One cannot be Christian and to have a moral compass if one sees others as objects there to serve one's selfish needs. Yet here we are.
It's pretty hard for people who go to church regularly to change their minds - because their whole support system & we-are-the-ones-who-know-God grouping makes them far less likely to think for themselves, that means going against the groupie mentality & risking becoming one of the sidelined & sneered at - because there's nothing quite so nasty as a group of religious bigots targeting one of their 'fallen angels' !
Don't be so quick to paint all church goers with the same ugly brush. I do think fundamentalists are more susceptible to authoritarian thought. But many churches are places of community and a force for good. The most reprehensible are those who don't go to church but wrap themselves in the flag and old testament, then ignore all of the teachings of Jesus.
Anecdotally: my niece's job is creating and teaching 'soft' seminars for corporation employees (bonding, morale, etc.). One of her big clients is Morgan Stanley. Because of the uncertain economic climate, businesses are cutting way back on development loans. Thus Morgan Stanley is not making nearly as many of those. So they too are cutting back where they can, and one of those places includes hiring my niece. Meanwhile, her husband works at Columbia U, which is a kicked hornet's nest right now. I have quite a few other stories like this among my personal acquaintance. The graphs don't give one the details of how the chaotic downward spiral is affecting human beings.
I wish the media would highlight more stories like this. Reporters were so quick to talk to Trump voters ad nauseam after his first election; where now are the interviews with those suddenly losing their jobs through no fault of their own?
Dear Professor, I still do not see what I personally think is the correct closing of these brilliant analysis, which is WHY. Why breaking up an entire economy? I suggest a reading: the poorer, weaker, more enslaved the middle class, the better for the king. This is dismantling liberal democracy by design.
That's because it's obvious. Aside from that, Der Führer Trumpkopf, being a psychopath, gets a kick out of doing as much harm to as many people as possible. It's a characteristic he shares with Der Deputy Führer Skunk Musk.
They both find it most entertaining and amusing when people suffer.
And with Stephen Miller. Don't forget him. The only guy who salivates when speaking out ICE hit squads in black masks abducting people right off the street. I used to think the guy was just a Goebbels but he's more the reincarnation of Himmler
I'm of the belief that trump is doing what his 'boss' putin want him to do - ie remove the US from being the best economy in the world. How trump behaved when meeting putin in Helsinki told me all I needed to know about who was 'boss' of who ! What is happening now with trump actually sounding cocky in his talk regarding putin is something to watch, who knows why he is doing that, and it's just possible putin may 'do something' about it - we shall see if it's time for the long drop out of a window !
Yes. If you look at Greenland, it will help whoever "owns" it control shipping (and warring) through the Arctic Circle, something Putin is gearing up to do as the ice melts faster each spring.
As a dane I am horrorfied with what is going on with Greenland. There are already treaties from the yearly fifties and from 2004 that allows USA all the bases it wants in Greenland. You actually already control Greenland. And the greenlanders would welcome american investment in minerals. But it seems that Trump wants Greenland for his legacy..? . We have been asked to sell Greenland, but how could you sell a country from under the feets of the greenlanders. And they want to belong to themselves and have very close ties to Denmark. They are very afraid of what is going on. Both Greenland and the rest of Denmark used to have very good connections with USA, but I fear for our future relations. I still have Hope, but I worry
Yes, but since Trump is making the USA a vassal state to Russia, warring should be limited between the two nations. Putin might as well own Greenland outright instead of using the USA as a false front.
I keep remembering a book I read that described the poverty and desparation of individuals during the industrial revolution and the the incredible power of the industrialists. It was a time when employees had no protections, limited education, many children, and poor health. They would work themselves to death and simply be replaced by the next person lucky enough to have the job.
When I coalesce all the changes being made by the Trump regime and in states with Republican governors, it looks like they are trying to roll US life back to that era. The majority of the people will exist or even be born to serve in companies owned by the 1%.
Charles Dickens wrote from personal experience. Age 12, his family were all in debtor’s prison, but was sent to work in a boot-blacking factory in London, on his own.
Red states in particular have been changing their child labour laws to be less restrictive. Trusk has been working diligently to remove regulations that protect workers, consumers, and, of course, the environment. They want a completely unregulated capitalist economy. It is truly tragic since the disasterous consequences cannot be undone.
Read about "the Mar-a-Lago Accords", for a hint of what's driving tRump's Tariffman agenda, also the "restructuring of foreign debt, and a de jure devaluation of the US dollar...Google it and have a couple of days of solid reading.
There is a classic quote, attributed at varying times to Mark Twain, Will Rogers, et al, that goes like this: "It ain't what we don't know that gets us into trouble, it's what we know for sure that just ain't so." This explains the preferences small business owners have for Trump: they are absolutely certain that he'll make them all very, very rich.
In my experience, most small business owners conflate their financial success with a fanatic belief it results from whatever set of prejudices they happen to subscribe to.
And most of them would rather see their business fail as long as they can continue to "know" that it was all the fault of the people they're prejudiced against, than make it succeed by changing their minds.
We’re observing one of the downsides of autocracy - policies that are just plain stupid. Fueled by megalomania and a lack of reflection, the leader comes up with crazy ideas that his team of “yes men” advisors go along with. Most sane people realize these ideas are crazy and some of them are shot down by the courts, while others get adopted because our legal/legislative system isn’t up to the task of stopping them. That appears to be the case with Trump’s tariffs, but I’m still hoping that the courts or Congress will somehow strike them down.
When the Republicans talk about business and what good things they are going to do for business, they're talking about huge multinational corporations, but small business owners always preen themselves that they are meant and vote Republican. I saw it with my father when he started his own business--and watching him persuaded me that 1) I NEVER wanted to own my own business and 2) I would NEVER vote GQP.
My sons own a little business with just a few employees, and listening to them bitch & moan about all the stuff they have to deal with is pretty enlightening. They do diving & engineering inspections, and things like the OSHA regulations come into play. One of them votes Republican but the other is a Democrat, but they both agree the regulations discarded by this RW crew have made their life suddenly much easier. Of course we all want clean water etc etc, but while I am definitely a Dem it is very hard on small businesses to suddenly have to fill in numerous forms & put up with inspection people invading their work sites asking lots of questions because those in charge are trying to stop Global warming & keep people safe ! So there is a price to pay for everything & small businesses cannot afford to pay a staff to just fill in forms & take care of the nuisance admin stuff - they are busy trying to do enough actual work to keep the business running at all !
Of course they can pay for staff to fill out the forms for them. They just don’t want to. Because they don’t want to raise their price to their clients to maintain their profit margin, even though filling out forms is a fixed cost of doing business that every competitor has to pay as well.
Just more evidence of the zero-sum thinking of American businessmen. So your sons don’t have to fill out forms, and we all get to enjoy the pollution and global warming. Fair trade, yes?
This is a little confusing. Doesn’t regulation drive demand for this work? Returning to the McKinley era would mean no inspections, which would make many producers happier but would eliminate service jobs like inspectors.
That's a good point. There should be help available to small businesses so they can manage their roles in protecting people and the planet. I agree it shouldn't all fall on them alone.
Yes. I think most of us can agree that regulation needs to be looked at and reformed. Careful pruning needs to be done. Maybe like they did base closings in the 90s, with bi-partisan commissions.
Thanks to Professor Krugman for one of his best articles.
I understand that there are lots of low information voters who think that Donald was a real businessperson on The Apprentice and some voters who are motivated by racial/cultural/religious antagonism who support MAGA. But as the Good Professor mentioned there are many, many businesspeople, farmers, and others who say that they keep up with political and economic affairs and should know better. But they claim to believe that Donald is "good for business." That is just a mystery to me.
Some of Donald's supporters claim that he is playing "three-way chess" when everyone else is playing checkers. But don't believe it. As the Good Professor, John Bolton, and others say, Donald makes decisions based on whom he likes or dislikes, his grievances, his score settling, personal aggrandizement, whim, and so forth. Donald is not doing a lot of deep thinking about economics, politics, law, or anything else.
Donald is a con man and serial grifter who only thinks about himself. And make no mistake, he is good at the con and grift and running The Apprentice Presidency. The American electorate put him in the WH once and then came back for more in 2024.
He’s Mad King George, the one our founders fought against to gain their liberty. We’ve come full circle. This needs to be repeated multiple times per day across all platforms.
I for one, believe Trump has reached the apex of his imperialist fever dream. Over the next 60 days, we will see more and more clearly the catastrophic results of Trump's efforts to return all political and economic power to himself and to America's wealthiest. And these results are entirely owned by his cheerleaders, the slavishly compliant GOP.
Here's my short list of some catastrophes we're looking at:
1. 10-20% (7-15 million) Social Security recipients may miss their monthly withdrawal.
2. Medicaid & Medicare cuts based on fake "fraud" assessments will gut healthcare and food support to millions of Americans.
3. Inflation will shoot back up to +/- 10% based on "Liberation Day" tariffs and America's shrinking, terrorized immigrant workforce.
4. Stock markets will tank waiting for America's Golden Age of Liberation from foreign grifter governments. (Lunacy)
5. Terminating 500,000 to 1 million federal workers will cause system wide, chaotic failures across government services.
6. Dismantling our democratic alliances and
demeaning our allies will erode America's global influence and prestige. This includes ludicrous fantasies about Greenland, Canada, Panama, Gaza and probably other entities unmentioned to date.
7.Personal attacks on large law firms will diminish the rule of law in America.
8. $1.5 trillion tax cut for the wealthy.
I do not believe this is what Americans voted for in 2024. As a nation, we are approaching a reckoning of historic proportions. We will stop the Trump/Musk/MAGA insanity and take our country back.
The only item missing from your list is the number of people who will die as a result of all the other items on the list, both directly and indirectly.
I don't think it's calculable, but I expect the number to be "Yuuuuuuuuuge!"
Personally I can't wait for the DOGE revision of the Social Security/Medicare system which they are supposedly rolling out in several months. Looking forward to people being dropped from the roles or just not getting their money on time.
Also, a note on "Liberation Day", there are reports of B2 Spirits being deployed to Diego Garcia along with their in air refueling support. What is the goal here? Hanging out to threaten the Houthis? Iranians? Actually attack somewhere? Possibly serious stuff here.
Trump was a Television actor on NBC Television. Everyone was trained to believe TV since they were babies that trusted everyone and anything. Trump was likely taught how to hold an audience captive. And the rest is history.
Deja Reagan, all over again, failed show biz Democrat divorcee schills become GOP to exploit evangelicals "values" voters without actually having any themselves.
Yes, it was in the same category as “The Housewives of……” and has continued with this successful theme, interwoven with “America’s Funniest Home Videos oops ..Funniest Home Injuries”.
Great column, and spot on. We had dinner on election night last year at a popular local restaurant. All the TVs were tuned in to incoming election results, and the owner stopped by our table to chat. She saw us watching the results and told us: "I HAD to vote for Trump because I have a business!" Needless to say, we haven't gone back to that restaurant since that night -- and we continue to boycott other businesses that are known Trump supporters. I doubt they miss our business, but have often wondered how other aspects of this erratic roller-coaster economy are impacting them now.
Small business psychology is easy to figure out. They really believe that every transaction is zero-sum. Every penny paid to employees, for instance, is a penny out of the businessman's pockets. Every penny paid on taxes or safety is a loss of a penny. Every competitor is a threat. Etc. And from their point of view, they might even be correct. They live in the here and now. They don't understand that more pay means better workers; that taxes buy good things for business; that competition can increase total trade.
A lot of big business believes this, too. Hence, the success of Costco, which unusually believes that transactions can be positive sum. It understands that it can be more profitable if it pays its employees more than the marginal wage needed to hire a warm body.
You would think journalists would know better but many seem to also believe the evidence-free belief that Republicans are better for the economy. Most are also loathe to point out that Republicans’ tax cuts for for the wealthy have always been budget-busters since that economic genius Reagan promoted the fairy tale that those tax cuts would pay for themselves with increased growth. That is how Republicans have been able to maintain the myth that they are the party of business/a strong economy.
Journalists should know better; Reagan's budget director David Stockman said in 1982 that they knew all along that the tax cuts wouldn't pay for themselves and that the entire point was simply to bring down the top marginal tax rate.
Apparently, few journalists made note of that.
"You would think journalists would know better"
Journalists and news people like to talk about "cutting edge reporting" and so forth. But most of them just repeat what everyone else is saying. They repeat White House talking points or the talking points put out by politicians, I think most of them have turned their brains off.
It is hard to find good news sources which give facts and original thinking.
What happens when the Media is owned by the Oligarchy.
Try the Canadian Broadcasting Company, AlJezera, the BBC for starters.
The Boris Johnson Tories went after the BBC a few years ago because it was reporting inconvenient facts. Now the Trump Republicans are following the same script with US media. The CBC won’t be safe if Canadians also eventually fall for reactionary “populism”. Here’s hoping Canadians have been watching the international political mobsters over the past 10 years and decide to hold the line.
In Canada, the people who want to take down the CBC aren't mobsters, they are just "low information individuals", which translated into simple English is - village idiots.
The conventional "wisdom" is that republicans are good for business. Often times that is not true, but many people continue to say they believe it. Many "journalists" keep repeating it.
I continue to be amazed, but I occasionally meet people who think that republicans are like Henry Cabot Lodge and President Eisenhower.
They are about 75 years behind the times and do not realize that the republican party of today is light years different from that in the 1950's and before.
Today's Republicans wouldn't like Ike.
Or journalists report that people think Republicans are better for the economy. They dare not provide any historical context that might disabuse people of this erroneous belief. Providing context is liberal bias, you see, or even fake news.
Journalists don't want to lose access so they repeat what people them so that they can get continued access. If they report the truth, they get sidelined.
Sadly, most journalists work for companies owned by the uber rich. Their mandate is no longer to expose the truth. It is to convince the masses that policies that only benefit the uber rich (flat taxes like tariffs) will also benefit them. I believe that type of persuasive message is called propaganda.
They believe what they're paid to believe.
“ Trust in Trump “ is their slogan -
Trusting in Trump in reality means paying lawyers to file for bankruptcy protection.
Simply put - trust in Trump and kiss your
ass goodbye.
Was that what George H.W. Bush called "voodoo economics"? Then, when he was nominated to run as VP, he quickly (and silently) fell in line.
Loath! No e.
The way that I remember which is which is by noting that "e" is in "verb".
Exactly! I once ran a small business (11 employees). Early on I came to this conclusion: if you don't pay your people enough, you can't afford to fire them.
Yes, John slaves are a hot commodity.
What's a "john slave"? Like in the bathroom at the airport?
Unlike WalMart where the employees look like they are on work release and I've never seen employees seem so unhappy- but the Walton's got their cash!
Go to a Dollar General. The people there look poorer than those at Wal-Mart.
But the Costco employees where I shop seem really perky.
If humans don't stop living only 'in the here and now', we will soon be back to living like our pre-historic ancestors!
Thanks to global warming, if only that.
So this is the game let Trump burn himself out with dithering yo-yo stupidity. Then the lizards in grey suits slither in an tell Donald 'Time is up idiot yer a liability ya gotta go (we have this shit on you Donny see the videos) and after a lot of shouting and roaring behind closed doors but recorded by the 2025ers Trump falls on his sword and Vance takes over to cheers from Thiel et al and the real shit and dismantling of the remains of democracy quietly gradually gathers momentum til disUSA is back in the middle ages before the cancelled Midterms.
What do you think?
This is SO true! I've seen it so many times where a business, or corporation, will hire a person just to have a warm body. Then the management shakes their head wondering why retention is low and recruitment is high. This happens in the professional and technical services everywhere.
Years ago, I worked in a law firm where the partners referred to their associates as "fungible products." Then, after they'd lose one or two of their best associates, they would talk about being more "associate friendly - better working conditions/pay/hours/bonuses - but would soon fall back into type. They couldn't help themselves.
I worked for a law firm like that once. They no longer exist.
I left my firm about 10 years ago (retired), they probably had about 20 associates at their height, when I was there. They now have 5, if you don't count the owner's kid. (Who graduated law school, came to work for dad and became a "partner" after 2 years.)
"They live in the here and now."
For many small businesses, that's how they have to live. They don't have the resources to take chances, and especially if they are in retail, they see how fickle consumers can be. I don't blame them for thinking that these costs will hit them. Better workers don't mean much to small businesses, unless they are businesses that employ skilled workers.
My mimicry machine says this; and I use one that has links, so I can vet their numbers:
"Approximately 23.2% of new small businesses in the U.S. fail within their first year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analyzed in 2023. The failure rate increases over time, with 48% failing within five years and 65.3% closing within ten years."
I don't know what small businesses you are familiar with, but that was never true in the small businesses my family ran. They paid wages commensurate with the community standards and rewarded people for good work. Ziggy has overgeneralized.
A lot of business people in all sorts of businesses thought that Trump would lower their taxes, free them from bureaucratic burdens and lower the cost of living. Most small businesses don’t enjoy big financial cushions. But like most voters, red or blue, they really do not understand what government actually does, at least when it functions as we want it to, nor how hard it is to get it right. So why wouldn’t small businesses owners,who are especially vulnerable to inflation, go with guy who promised to bring inflation down?
I don't have a lot of tolerance for people too stupid to see that when Trump's lips are moving, he's lying.
Nonsense. Blanketing small business owners reveals vast ignorance. There is no one “small business psychology,” just as there is no one kind of small business. Many small businesses help each other out and have friendly fair relationships with employees, who are often enough, also their friends outside of work. The links between employee, owner, colleague, and customer are often short and personal. Everyone knows how everyone else is hit by the big stuff, like weather or the economy. Fair competition doesn’t erase cooperation, and long term thinking is just as prevalent among small business people as it is in other professions.
It's good to rebut exaggerated claims. Now, if people would start with "Too [optional adverb] many small businesses..." the world's level of accuracy would be increased considerably.
IOW, they've got their heads jammed far up "where the sun don't shine".
No doubt Trump havoc is most severe for the small business owner and working class Americans while the wealthy again make out like bandits.
I have, however, learned how to tap into the myth of trickledown:
I sell my portfolio ROI and have cash on hand to value buy in the red/dip. I’ll make pennies on the billions the wealthy make in those same intentional downturns.
May I share your comment on Facebook? Copy & paste, not attributed?
Sure.
simplistic nonsense.
Trump has declared Himself as the ultimate authority of everything: the weather, economics, international relations, geography, technology, culture, the arts, health, ... Hell, now he has even declared Himself the ultimate authority on the constitution. It's unconstitutional to disagree with Him. Even the constitution is unconstitutional for banning Him from having a third term!
As for the populace, it comes down to brain function. For instance, I know conservatives who are compassionate and generous but only toward people they know and situations they can have definite control over. Most liberals have more agility while speaking and when making plans for a future that is in a state of flux. I make a game out of guessing the political party of Senators and Representatives when I first see them on TV. In general Republicans are more inclined to read from a piece of paper. The oddest thing is the conservative distrust of data whether it is scientific or economic. You would think that would be right up their alley. I wonder if many conservatives are more susceptible to the manipulative propaganda that comes their way.
Conservatives distrust data whether it's scientific or economic because it usually doesn't tell them what they want to hear, but they also live in a universe where every matter is settled by appealing to authority and just think they need the RIGHT authorities to tell them what to think.
Hence the proliferation of conservative "think tanks" like Cato and Heritage decades ago preceded by a developing hate for academics and collegiate researchers.
I would love to know why thinking and debating ideas is so uncomfortable for conservatives. Is it a deficiency of our public schools ? I am thinking that children of liberal parents need more courses in accounting while children with conservative parents could spend time debating ideas.
The definition of political conservatism is continuing to do the same thing regardless of scientific advancements and increased information. When the fundamental basis of your political philosophy is to continue operating like it’s 1100 CE, debate is irrelevant.
(BTW, your suggestion for accounting classes for liberals would help advance their causes. I’ve witnessed too many instances where they have a core idea that would benefit society but fail to advance it because they can’t explain the accounting.)
Society can take liberals and make them angry in their old age. Here’s how you do it:
Force them to change their online passwords every few months (never admitting there has been a data breach.)
With regard to written instructions reduce the length of sentences by using initials and making lots of assumptions about what people know.
https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the-smart-are-more-biased-to-think-they-are-less-biasedhtml
I know you are so what am I? Wait, that's not it. I know I am but what are you? Okay closer, maybe. Knock, knock. Who's there? Your sense of self. I don't have one of those. Fine, be that way.
https://media.tenor.com/BSUMXquyHocAAAAM/laughing-cute-girl.gif
The UN will never be the same:-)
Anybody who voted for the wannabe dictator should have listened to Rick Wilson who correctly stated that everything Traitor Trump touches dies! Now it is your business and the U.S. economy! Nobody wins a trade war!!!
This is a great summary - it hadn't really dawned on me until we got the real world example of "Trump divination" on the Houthi group chat, with Stepehen Miller swooping in to declare he had heard Trump demand bombing, therefore bombing must occur.
As a dane and european I was shocked to know how much Europe is hated by their main Ally. We always saw USA as our friend and protector. We fought, bled and died with you in Iraq and Afghanistan. We saw USA as a guanrantee for democracy and order. But the houthi group chat has made it clear, there is a new world order, and I am truly saddened by that.
That's because we are currently governed by ignoramuses and morons. Sincerest apologies. Most intelligent enlightened Americans don't think like that. Currently, the Dark Ages is governing, sadly.
I know at least half of your country does not think like that, and even Republicans don't all agree with Trump, Vance etc. But I would so wish, they would to speak up. Vance is very aggressive, he just said something like America would protect itself even if it meant taking over Greenland "come hell or high water". There are treaties from 1951 and 2004, that allow America to have bases on Greenland in order to defend itself. Today there are only 200 american soldiers on the Pituffik (Thule) airbase, but earlier there were several thousand soldiers on 17 bases around Greenland. After the Berlin Wall fell however, neither the States nor Denmark thought, it was necessary with a strong defence. Of course things have changed and we are reinvesting in the defence of Greenland, and if the USA wanted to come back to the bases they could, or even build new ones. It is not necessary to take over Greenland to defend the States at all, the greenlandish people are worried and scared, and so are the rest of us in the south of the kingdom. We can't believe we are being threatened like that, and peace even world peace is given as a reason. But thank you so much for the anwser, it is nice to hear from a friendly ally :-)
The 🍊💩 has us in deep 💩.
This is an extremely important point. Trump’s supporters see him as the ultimate authority on everything, which of course is a ridiculous concept for anyone, especially for someone with limited education like Trump. Where do they get this unfounded belief in an almighty and all knowing savior ? This has to be ended or we will have an autocracy forever.
It's the perpetual doctrine. Trump without end, amen. Sort of a second law interpretation of the constitution.
“Never underestimate the power of the human mind to believe what it wants to believe, no matter how strong the conflicting evidence.” - Brian Herbert
PS: Ergo…… "religion"
My personal favorite..."Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." - John Kenneth Galbraith
In fact, since Arthur Laffer and his "tax cuts pay for themselves" bulllshit, Galbraith's quip has been and continues to be the holy writ of the US Right.
Nice. That'll go in my "Musings" file.
He was a brilliant man who also said, "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
PS: I'm not sure why he singled out "modern" conservatives. Seems like it's part of their worldview's DNA?
Hence modern conservatives and their love of Ayn Rand. She gave them permission to be selfish and a philosophy to justify it. What I find so hypocritical is the claim to also be Christian. One cannot be Christian and to have a moral compass if one sees others as objects there to serve one's selfish needs. Yet here we are.
And my favorite, from John Maynard Keynes: “When facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”
That's one of my favorites. When I had a signature block, that quote was in it.
The sedimentary theory of intellect. An igneous bit of insight.
US Wrong.
Ergo evangelicals supporting convict adulterer lifetime fraudster.
He's promised to bring about Armageddon for them. Isn't that what "the beast" in Revelations does?
Oh, and nothing is more important than saving the life of an embryo - even if it means taking the life of an actual living human being.
It's interesting when people who call themselves "Christians" vote for the antichrist.
It's pretty hard for people who go to church regularly to change their minds - because their whole support system & we-are-the-ones-who-know-God grouping makes them far less likely to think for themselves, that means going against the groupie mentality & risking becoming one of the sidelined & sneered at - because there's nothing quite so nasty as a group of religious bigots targeting one of their 'fallen angels' !
Don't be so quick to paint all church goers with the same ugly brush. I do think fundamentalists are more susceptible to authoritarian thought. But many churches are places of community and a force for good. The most reprehensible are those who don't go to church but wrap themselves in the flag and old testament, then ignore all of the teachings of Jesus.
You forgot rapist.
Trying.
Searching...
“ that economic policy changes from day to day with Trump’s moods”
Thank god we didn’t elect an “emotional” woman!
The irony is thick enough to cut with a...chainsaw.
Anecdotally: my niece's job is creating and teaching 'soft' seminars for corporation employees (bonding, morale, etc.). One of her big clients is Morgan Stanley. Because of the uncertain economic climate, businesses are cutting way back on development loans. Thus Morgan Stanley is not making nearly as many of those. So they too are cutting back where they can, and one of those places includes hiring my niece. Meanwhile, her husband works at Columbia U, which is a kicked hornet's nest right now. I have quite a few other stories like this among my personal acquaintance. The graphs don't give one the details of how the chaotic downward spiral is affecting human beings.
I wish the media would highlight more stories like this. Reporters were so quick to talk to Trump voters ad nauseam after his first election; where now are the interviews with those suddenly losing their jobs through no fault of their own?
Well, they probably can't find them hanging out in diners now...
Soon to be found picking through the dumpsters out behind the diners.
I am tempted to blame the media for about 1/4 or this mess.
and they know two people, and they know two people..ripple on down...
grrrrrrrr
Six degrees of separation.
Dear Professor, I still do not see what I personally think is the correct closing of these brilliant analysis, which is WHY. Why breaking up an entire economy? I suggest a reading: the poorer, weaker, more enslaved the middle class, the better for the king. This is dismantling liberal democracy by design.
That's because it's obvious. Aside from that, Der Führer Trumpkopf, being a psychopath, gets a kick out of doing as much harm to as many people as possible. It's a characteristic he shares with Der Deputy Führer Skunk Musk.
They both find it most entertaining and amusing when people suffer.
And with Stephen Miller. Don't forget him. The only guy who salivates when speaking out ICE hit squads in black masks abducting people right off the street. I used to think the guy was just a Goebbels but he's more the reincarnation of Himmler
Oh yeah, he's another Pennywise clone for sure.
And part time serial killer, with his wife as a partner in crime.
In his present position it's full time. He gets to slaughter thousands, if not millions.
An excellent, if gruesome point.
There is no why. All is impulse and reaction. This is what you get for putting a spoiled, ignorant child on a throne and expecting him to rule wisely.
I'm of the belief that trump is doing what his 'boss' putin want him to do - ie remove the US from being the best economy in the world. How trump behaved when meeting putin in Helsinki told me all I needed to know about who was 'boss' of who ! What is happening now with trump actually sounding cocky in his talk regarding putin is something to watch, who knows why he is doing that, and it's just possible putin may 'do something' about it - we shall see if it's time for the long drop out of a window !
Trump looked like a "whipped dog" being led around on a chain.
Yes. He looked like Reek from Game of Thrones.
Yes. If you look at Greenland, it will help whoever "owns" it control shipping (and warring) through the Arctic Circle, something Putin is gearing up to do as the ice melts faster each spring.
As a dane I am horrorfied with what is going on with Greenland. There are already treaties from the yearly fifties and from 2004 that allows USA all the bases it wants in Greenland. You actually already control Greenland. And the greenlanders would welcome american investment in minerals. But it seems that Trump wants Greenland for his legacy..? . We have been asked to sell Greenland, but how could you sell a country from under the feets of the greenlanders. And they want to belong to themselves and have very close ties to Denmark. They are very afraid of what is going on. Both Greenland and the rest of Denmark used to have very good connections with USA, but I fear for our future relations. I still have Hope, but I worry
Yes, but since Trump is making the USA a vassal state to Russia, warring should be limited between the two nations. Putin might as well own Greenland outright instead of using the USA as a false front.
He's punishing America for voting for Biden.
Whose design? Cui bono? As Timothy Snyder points out, Putin benefits.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/31/trump-greenland-us-morally-wrong-strategy-disastrous?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
I keep remembering a book I read that described the poverty and desparation of individuals during the industrial revolution and the the incredible power of the industrialists. It was a time when employees had no protections, limited education, many children, and poor health. They would work themselves to death and simply be replaced by the next person lucky enough to have the job.
When I coalesce all the changes being made by the Trump regime and in states with Republican governors, it looks like they are trying to roll US life back to that era. The majority of the people will exist or even be born to serve in companies owned by the 1%.
Charles Dickens wrote from personal experience. Age 12, his family were all in debtor’s prison, but was sent to work in a boot-blacking factory in London, on his own.
Red states in particular have been changing their child labour laws to be less restrictive. Trusk has been working diligently to remove regulations that protect workers, consumers, and, of course, the environment. They want a completely unregulated capitalist economy. It is truly tragic since the disasterous consequences cannot be undone.
Read about "the Mar-a-Lago Accords", for a hint of what's driving tRump's Tariffman agenda, also the "restructuring of foreign debt, and a de jure devaluation of the US dollar...Google it and have a couple of days of solid reading.
Better for the king maybe, but definitely not better for 'capitalism'.
There is a classic quote, attributed at varying times to Mark Twain, Will Rogers, et al, that goes like this: "It ain't what we don't know that gets us into trouble, it's what we know for sure that just ain't so." This explains the preferences small business owners have for Trump: they are absolutely certain that he'll make them all very, very rich.
In my experience, most small business owners conflate their financial success with a fanatic belief it results from whatever set of prejudices they happen to subscribe to.
And most of them would rather see their business fail as long as they can continue to "know" that it was all the fault of the people they're prejudiced against, than make it succeed by changing their minds.
Hummm - like with Trump University?
Trump Casino? Trump Charity?
Trump followers that went to prison ?
Think it was H.L. Mencken.
I'm thinking Twain. Mencken wasn't an "ain't" kind of guy. ;)
We’re observing one of the downsides of autocracy - policies that are just plain stupid. Fueled by megalomania and a lack of reflection, the leader comes up with crazy ideas that his team of “yes men” advisors go along with. Most sane people realize these ideas are crazy and some of them are shot down by the courts, while others get adopted because our legal/legislative system isn’t up to the task of stopping them. That appears to be the case with Trump’s tariffs, but I’m still hoping that the courts or Congress will somehow strike them down.
When the Republicans talk about business and what good things they are going to do for business, they're talking about huge multinational corporations, but small business owners always preen themselves that they are meant and vote Republican. I saw it with my father when he started his own business--and watching him persuaded me that 1) I NEVER wanted to own my own business and 2) I would NEVER vote GQP.
Except Trump's craziness ain't gonna be good for those multi-nationals either.
My sons own a little business with just a few employees, and listening to them bitch & moan about all the stuff they have to deal with is pretty enlightening. They do diving & engineering inspections, and things like the OSHA regulations come into play. One of them votes Republican but the other is a Democrat, but they both agree the regulations discarded by this RW crew have made their life suddenly much easier. Of course we all want clean water etc etc, but while I am definitely a Dem it is very hard on small businesses to suddenly have to fill in numerous forms & put up with inspection people invading their work sites asking lots of questions because those in charge are trying to stop Global warming & keep people safe ! So there is a price to pay for everything & small businesses cannot afford to pay a staff to just fill in forms & take care of the nuisance admin stuff - they are busy trying to do enough actual work to keep the business running at all !
Of course they can pay for staff to fill out the forms for them. They just don’t want to. Because they don’t want to raise their price to their clients to maintain their profit margin, even though filling out forms is a fixed cost of doing business that every competitor has to pay as well.
Just more evidence of the zero-sum thinking of American businessmen. So your sons don’t have to fill out forms, and we all get to enjoy the pollution and global warming. Fair trade, yes?
“They do diving & engineering inspections”
This is a little confusing. Doesn’t regulation drive demand for this work? Returning to the McKinley era would mean no inspections, which would make many producers happier but would eliminate service jobs like inspectors.
I hope their employees have their vaccinations up to date. Divers not using closed systems can be exposed to typhus, cholera, coliforms, and more.
I would like to be safer and my grandchildren to be safe by filling in a few forms and respecting our world that allows humans survive.
That's a good point. There should be help available to small businesses so they can manage their roles in protecting people and the planet. I agree it shouldn't all fall on them alone.
Yes. I think most of us can agree that regulation needs to be looked at and reformed. Careful pruning needs to be done. Maybe like they did base closings in the 90s, with bi-partisan commissions.
Thanks to Professor Krugman for one of his best articles.
I understand that there are lots of low information voters who think that Donald was a real businessperson on The Apprentice and some voters who are motivated by racial/cultural/religious antagonism who support MAGA. But as the Good Professor mentioned there are many, many businesspeople, farmers, and others who say that they keep up with political and economic affairs and should know better. But they claim to believe that Donald is "good for business." That is just a mystery to me.
Some of Donald's supporters claim that he is playing "three-way chess" when everyone else is playing checkers. But don't believe it. As the Good Professor, John Bolton, and others say, Donald makes decisions based on whom he likes or dislikes, his grievances, his score settling, personal aggrandizement, whim, and so forth. Donald is not doing a lot of deep thinking about economics, politics, law, or anything else.
Donald is a con man and serial grifter who only thinks about himself. And make no mistake, he is good at the con and grift and running The Apprentice Presidency. The American electorate put him in the WH once and then came back for more in 2024.
He’s Mad King George, the one our founders fought against to gain their liberty. We’ve come full circle. This needs to be repeated multiple times per day across all platforms.
When has Trumpf ever been good for business? Musk just buys other people's.
Or, more accurately, steals them.
touche !
Close, they're actually douche.
I for one, believe Trump has reached the apex of his imperialist fever dream. Over the next 60 days, we will see more and more clearly the catastrophic results of Trump's efforts to return all political and economic power to himself and to America's wealthiest. And these results are entirely owned by his cheerleaders, the slavishly compliant GOP.
Here's my short list of some catastrophes we're looking at:
1. 10-20% (7-15 million) Social Security recipients may miss their monthly withdrawal.
2. Medicaid & Medicare cuts based on fake "fraud" assessments will gut healthcare and food support to millions of Americans.
3. Inflation will shoot back up to +/- 10% based on "Liberation Day" tariffs and America's shrinking, terrorized immigrant workforce.
4. Stock markets will tank waiting for America's Golden Age of Liberation from foreign grifter governments. (Lunacy)
5. Terminating 500,000 to 1 million federal workers will cause system wide, chaotic failures across government services.
6. Dismantling our democratic alliances and
demeaning our allies will erode America's global influence and prestige. This includes ludicrous fantasies about Greenland, Canada, Panama, Gaza and probably other entities unmentioned to date.
7.Personal attacks on large law firms will diminish the rule of law in America.
8. $1.5 trillion tax cut for the wealthy.
I do not believe this is what Americans voted for in 2024. As a nation, we are approaching a reckoning of historic proportions. We will stop the Trump/Musk/MAGA insanity and take our country back.
In other words...a Tuesday in Russia
The only item missing from your list is the number of people who will die as a result of all the other items on the list, both directly and indirectly.
I don't think it's calculable, but I expect the number to be "Yuuuuuuuuuge!"
Personally I can't wait for the DOGE revision of the Social Security/Medicare system which they are supposedly rolling out in several months. Looking forward to people being dropped from the roles or just not getting their money on time.
Also, a note on "Liberation Day", there are reports of B2 Spirits being deployed to Diego Garcia along with their in air refueling support. What is the goal here? Hanging out to threaten the Houthis? Iranians? Actually attack somewhere? Possibly serious stuff here.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/b-2-bombers-diego-garcia/
This tariff nonsense is keeping me up at night. We are going to see some bad layoffs back in the Midwest and it makes me sad.
There is little joy in seeing your most pessimistic predictions realized, or unfortunately at this moment, in seeing them exceeded.
Pessimistic, or realistic?
Trump was a Television actor on NBC Television. Everyone was trained to believe TV since they were babies that trusted everyone and anything. Trump was likely taught how to hold an audience captive. And the rest is history.
Deja Reagan, all over again, failed show biz Democrat divorcee schills become GOP to exploit evangelicals "values" voters without actually having any themselves.
It's a role he's play acted his entire life.
Yes, it was in the same category as “The Housewives of……” and has continued with this successful theme, interwoven with “America’s Funniest Home Videos oops ..Funniest Home Injuries”.
(Low)Class Act!
So maybe we’ll finally see a female president when an alumn of the Housewives franchise runs. That’s what the Democratic did wrong in 2016 and 2024. 🤭
Great column, and spot on. We had dinner on election night last year at a popular local restaurant. All the TVs were tuned in to incoming election results, and the owner stopped by our table to chat. She saw us watching the results and told us: "I HAD to vote for Trump because I have a business!" Needless to say, we haven't gone back to that restaurant since that night -- and we continue to boycott other businesses that are known Trump supporters. I doubt they miss our business, but have often wondered how other aspects of this erratic roller-coaster economy are impacting them now.