When some fortune teller tells me they know how to read the signs I will think of this: “and iI thought for a while that the artist was named Vietato Toccare di Pinti, which, pardon my Italian, but it turns out to mean “don't touch the paintings.”
Two out of three of my most favorite interesting people; Paul K and Barry R.
Alas the third, Daniel K is no more and, most interestingly, he applied his own insights to choose his ending. He understood his last ten years were not about to repeat. RIP Daniel, I learned more from you about the human condition than anyone else I've ever read.
As an artist and collector, I hate with a passsion people who think they're making investments and then stash the art in a vault because they don't really like it.
bravo...TERRIBLE things are happening - alot, alot. And it takes a psychological toll. (some day I will never have to HEAR THE NAME TRUMP AGAIN !!!!!! IMO) Regaining ground...my life flow back, laughter, watching a movie - family time, something fun - a night out - THEN BACK TO THE FIGHT WITH OUT THE FULL ON FATIGUE :) Yes Virginia, we are in a WAR now
Please don't put too much stock in Trump as the bogeyman. But rather, in the political party he controls; and the "news" organization that put him in the first place, to be able to control said party.
People voted Trump in, not the "news" organizations. After all, isn't the old saying fool me once, shame on you? Fool me 77,284,118 times, shame on me? Or something like that?
You're entitled to believe that FOX News, Sinclair, and their lesser imitators are actually news organizations, and not fake news propaganda outlets. But you're wrong.
The Ipsos poll of likely Trump voters last Nov. found that 85% get some/most/all of their news from FOX News. And that 80% of these believed that the "Biden economy" was *already in recession,* that crime and unemployment were at *historic highs*--instead of near historic lows. And that's before you get into the weeds with the really wacky stuff FOX promotes, like that Haitians are eating people's pets, and that Dems murder (abort) babies after birth.
This must be my day to be straw manned! How, in the name of all the Gods, could you possibly come to the conclusion that I thought Fox News, Sinclair and the rest of the right wing propaganda outlets are real news organizations from my original post?
But I stand by what I wrote. Ultimately, in a democracy, the voters determine who wins. Not the “news” agencies. Not even the real news agencies. If you object to that, that’s fine. But don’t pretend that rather anodyne observation is somehow a vote of support for things like Fox and Sinclair.
That was so much fun. You ended with ‘you can’t buy back your twenties’. When I was young I had the time but no money. Now I have the money but no time. Looking forward to my imminent retirement and hoping the imagination of my twenties returns.
More time on earth for me is not only but also. Since first reading this discussion what stands out is a comment near the end about doing what you love and doing well as a result. I think what I heard is doing what you love will allow you to do well too. Measured not in material beyond what is required for security but in humility and thankfulness.
KRUGMAN ON ECONOMIC AMBIGUITY, LUCK, AND BEING LESS STUPID THAN OTHERS
What a fascinating conversation about financial ambiguity, how luck can affect financial ‘brilliance,’ and the folly of following almost anyone who boldly predicts recession, high inflation, or major stock market gyrations.
I liked Charlie Munger’s comment that he was not more brilliant than others—just ‘less stupid.’
In hindsight, we all make mistakes in investing. One mistake is to assume that, because we got something right, that we have a hot hand. Some of the biggest winners have often also been among the biggest losers.
I have found Paul Krugman pretty darned good in his economic and fiscal analysis. On occasion, he will point out, in retrospect, when he was mistaken. He also points out the many times where he was more astute than some big name investors.
At 91 I have ignore professional investor advice for nearly 70 years. Though ‘luck and lethargy,’ I have done quite well. I never tried to time the market. I also have not purchased a bond since 1981.
My gut tells me that we are entering a rocky financial/economic period, in part because Trump is acting like a ‘crazy uncle.’ I have no idea to what extent or how long this disturbance will last. I’m simply tightening my financial belt, accumulating cash, and reading Krugman for guidance.
Best and most interesting column I've read all year. Thanks so very very much. Much of it is commentary and lessons I got from my perfect, wonderful, classy husband who was a field geologist professor for 30 years and interested in everything. He doubled and tripled his investments by doing the least stupid thing he could imagine.
I love how Paul mixes it up on his substack. This one was particularly entertaining and enlightening. I especially liked Barry Ritholtz's recalling what Graham said, "All experts are experts on the way the world used to be." It reminds me of a quote from Napoleon, which dovetails into Paul's comments on Summers : "To Understand a Person You Have To Know What Was Happening in the World When That Person Was Twenty."
One more apropros quote from Napoleon that summarizes much of the discussion, (as I remember it), it was something to the effect that the successful General was not the one with the best plan, but one who could best seize opportunities that chance threw up.
In otherwise smart and eloquent discussion I read this: 'Nobody had the Gaza-Israeli war or the Russian invasion of Ukraine.'. Please pay attention - Russia invaded Ukraine, they say rightly. Keep in mind that Ukraine has an army and the invasion could even be called war today, especially since the US and Europe supported Ukraine from the very first moment.
But Gaza-Israeli war?! The 77 years occupation of Palestine after Nakba - the biblical expulsion of some 750000 people, the land annexation (prior to 1948 Jews possessed some 7% of land in Palestine, now Israel possesses some 85%), and around 19 months of genocide with more than 60000 killed in Gaza, good many children and women, and as many wounded and mutilated, with Gaza being reduced to dust and rubble, is a war? One of the mightiest armies on the planet decimating population that possess basically just hand grenades, with more than 100 Palestinians killed for every Israeli, is a war? With the US completely supporting, or better enabling the genocide, is a war? I am shocked and heartbroken to see such biased outlook, such language that directly helps Israel go on with this total destruction of land and people.
Jews were deprived of their land and possessions in how many Arab countries? The number of displaced Jews almost exactly equals the number of displaced Arabs. But that’s not the point. Think back to the Minorities Treaties and the displacement of Armenians, Greeks, Turks, Slavs and more. In the 1940s and before it was normal. Don’t like it? Give America and Canada back to the Indigenous People before you complain.
Well, we are not witnessing the genocide of Jews, Slavs (me), Arabs, Turks, Armenians, indigenous people of America and Canada ... - we are witnessing the genocide in Gaza Strip - a well defined small territory that has been a concentration camp for decades. Every day people are being killed mutilated maimed burned, so many of them children, their land now turning into dust and rubble. I understand that you have no heart for them, no solidarity, no empathy - but you actually justify it because there are genocides before. Mind boggling and heartbreaking.
One of your best interviews. Barry Ritholtz is a fantastic guest as he has great stories, is very knowledgable and has a fantastic sense of humor. Beyond that he constantly cuts through the bovine scatology. Thanks very much!
The most striking thing about this colloquy is the reference to the financial crash. Pundits on CNBC and Fox News tried to blame the crash on the Community Reinvestment Act and Barney Frank. They were saying that no loans should ever be made to minorities. I was shocked but not surprised after working in commercial lending. The bigots reigned supreme.
Like so many others here, I thoroughly enjoyed this conversation. Maybe unlike many others here, economics & finance are not my bailiwick (I’m learning), but have long been my husband’s. We both follow you, so I was tickled to beat him to this post this morning, took the (later enthusiastically approved) liberty of adding both of Mr. Ritholtz’s books to his library list (especially since there are already holds on, “How Not to Invest”), and read him bits of it over coffee, from which our own enjoyable conversation ensued.
Several topics and themes in your interview/discussion very much reminded me of three other books I read recently and really enjoyed, so thought I’d mention them here since I have the distinct impression that they and “How Not to Invest” all complement each other nicely:
“The Psychology of Money” and “Same As Ever” by Morgan Housel, and “Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and why Everything we do Matters” by Brian Klaas (https://open.substack.com/pub/brianklaas)
As a collector of quotations since I was 14, quotes *are* my bailiwick, and in case no one else has pointed it out while I laboriously composed this, the quote Barry was trying to remember, originally written, “Don’t say things. What you are stands over you the while, and thunders so that I cannot hear what you say to the contrary”, wasn’t Wadsworth’s but Ralph Waldo Emerson’s. Quote Investigator, a great resource for both the correct attribution and evolution of quotes, includes it in their collection here: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/01/27/what-you-do-speaks/
I won’t ask what circumstances inspired your dad’s frequent quoting of Emerson’s line to you, but images of hands caught in cookie jars amid futile protests of innocence sprang immediately to mind. 😉
Congratulations! It’s not easy to make Q.I.’s quote question cut! I’m not surprised that you know and make use of Q.I., but the timing of your quote question being published there and my mentioning Q.I. here is a bit uncanny!
I hear you. It’s not easy, especially on the fly, keeping them straight. I mean, really — Ralph Waldo, William Wordsworth, Henry Wadsworth, Walt Whitman… mercy. 😵💫
People are buying at record rates because they fear prices will double with tariffs and, if they think they are going to be needing a new washing machine, a new car, a new dishwasher, soon, they go ahead and buy it before the price shoots up. It's what I'm doing: stocking up on clothes, getting a new car to replace my 13-year-old one, stuffing the freezer with bags of coffee, etc. It doesn't mean that I don't think the economy is going to tank. I do. I'm over $40,000 poorer than I was in early January, and I invest conservatively. There are a lot of people like me.
When some fortune teller tells me they know how to read the signs I will think of this: “and iI thought for a while that the artist was named Vietato Toccare di Pinti, which, pardon my Italian, but it turns out to mean “don't touch the paintings.”
Thanks for the laugh.
Two out of three of my most favorite interesting people; Paul K and Barry R.
Alas the third, Daniel K is no more and, most interestingly, he applied his own insights to choose his ending. He understood his last ten years were not about to repeat. RIP Daniel, I learned more from you about the human condition than anyone else I've ever read.
...or perhaps Vietato Comprare di Pinti, "don't buy the paintings"
Go ahead and buy them, but buy what you like. Don't pretend that they're an investment.
As an artist and collector, I hate with a passsion people who think they're making investments and then stash the art in a vault because they don't really like it.
bravo...TERRIBLE things are happening - alot, alot. And it takes a psychological toll. (some day I will never have to HEAR THE NAME TRUMP AGAIN !!!!!! IMO) Regaining ground...my life flow back, laughter, watching a movie - family time, something fun - a night out - THEN BACK TO THE FIGHT WITH OUT THE FULL ON FATIGUE :) Yes Virginia, we are in a WAR now
Please don't put too much stock in Trump as the bogeyman. But rather, in the political party he controls; and the "news" organization that put him in the first place, to be able to control said party.
People voted Trump in, not the "news" organizations. After all, isn't the old saying fool me once, shame on you? Fool me 77,284,118 times, shame on me? Or something like that?
You're entitled to believe that FOX News, Sinclair, and their lesser imitators are actually news organizations, and not fake news propaganda outlets. But you're wrong.
The Ipsos poll of likely Trump voters last Nov. found that 85% get some/most/all of their news from FOX News. And that 80% of these believed that the "Biden economy" was *already in recession,* that crime and unemployment were at *historic highs*--instead of near historic lows. And that's before you get into the weeds with the really wacky stuff FOX promotes, like that Haitians are eating people's pets, and that Dems murder (abort) babies after birth.
This must be my day to be straw manned! How, in the name of all the Gods, could you possibly come to the conclusion that I thought Fox News, Sinclair and the rest of the right wing propaganda outlets are real news organizations from my original post?
But I stand by what I wrote. Ultimately, in a democracy, the voters determine who wins. Not the “news” agencies. Not even the real news agencies. If you object to that, that’s fine. But don’t pretend that rather anodyne observation is somehow a vote of support for things like Fox and Sinclair.
My apologies!
and there IS a Santa Claus.
Yes, there is. But as a child I could not help wondering why rich kids got the most and the best presents.
Wonderful dialog. Krugman’s ability to both add to the context and sit back and let the story be told is appreciated. Going to look for the book now.
That was so much fun. You ended with ‘you can’t buy back your twenties’. When I was young I had the time but no money. Now I have the money but no time. Looking forward to my imminent retirement and hoping the imagination of my twenties returns.
A.E. Housman said it best:
“When first my way to fair I took,
Few pence in purse had I.
And long I used to stand and look,
At things I could not buy.
Now times are altered;
If I care to buy a thing I can.
The pence are here and here’s the fair,
But where’s the lost young man?
To think that two and two are four,
And neither five nor three,
The heart of man has long been sore,
And long ‘tis like to be.”
That's the part where you get to do what you like and it's probably different than what you liked in your 20's but that's ok.
There's several things that I liked in my 20's that I still like now!!
More time on earth for me is not only but also. Since first reading this discussion what stands out is a comment near the end about doing what you love and doing well as a result. I think what I heard is doing what you love will allow you to do well too. Measured not in material beyond what is required for security but in humility and thankfulness.
Keep in mind that without your health, you've got nothing. Billions will not matter if you are cronically ill with a number of debilitating diseases.
KRUGMAN ON ECONOMIC AMBIGUITY, LUCK, AND BEING LESS STUPID THAN OTHERS
What a fascinating conversation about financial ambiguity, how luck can affect financial ‘brilliance,’ and the folly of following almost anyone who boldly predicts recession, high inflation, or major stock market gyrations.
I liked Charlie Munger’s comment that he was not more brilliant than others—just ‘less stupid.’
In hindsight, we all make mistakes in investing. One mistake is to assume that, because we got something right, that we have a hot hand. Some of the biggest winners have often also been among the biggest losers.
I have found Paul Krugman pretty darned good in his economic and fiscal analysis. On occasion, he will point out, in retrospect, when he was mistaken. He also points out the many times where he was more astute than some big name investors.
At 91 I have ignore professional investor advice for nearly 70 years. Though ‘luck and lethargy,’ I have done quite well. I never tried to time the market. I also have not purchased a bond since 1981.
My gut tells me that we are entering a rocky financial/economic period, in part because Trump is acting like a ‘crazy uncle.’ I have no idea to what extent or how long this disturbance will last. I’m simply tightening my financial belt, accumulating cash, and reading Krugman for guidance.
Best and most interesting column I've read all year. Thanks so very very much. Much of it is commentary and lessons I got from my perfect, wonderful, classy husband who was a field geologist professor for 30 years and interested in everything. He doubled and tripled his investments by doing the least stupid thing he could imagine.
A joke about survivor bias. Years ago the software company SAP had a commercial that said:
"The world's best companies use SAP"
We in IT joked that you indeed need to be a very successful company to survive an SAP implementation.
I love how Paul mixes it up on his substack. This one was particularly entertaining and enlightening. I especially liked Barry Ritholtz's recalling what Graham said, "All experts are experts on the way the world used to be." It reminds me of a quote from Napoleon, which dovetails into Paul's comments on Summers : "To Understand a Person You Have To Know What Was Happening in the World When That Person Was Twenty."
One more apropros quote from Napoleon that summarizes much of the discussion, (as I remember it), it was something to the effect that the successful General was not the one with the best plan, but one who could best seize opportunities that chance threw up.
It reminds me of a general saying that every army fights the previous war.
If you look back at military history, it's true.
"Bad decisions lead to good stories" :-D Thx for brightening our day!
My favorite artist is Vietato Fumare.
In otherwise smart and eloquent discussion I read this: 'Nobody had the Gaza-Israeli war or the Russian invasion of Ukraine.'. Please pay attention - Russia invaded Ukraine, they say rightly. Keep in mind that Ukraine has an army and the invasion could even be called war today, especially since the US and Europe supported Ukraine from the very first moment.
But Gaza-Israeli war?! The 77 years occupation of Palestine after Nakba - the biblical expulsion of some 750000 people, the land annexation (prior to 1948 Jews possessed some 7% of land in Palestine, now Israel possesses some 85%), and around 19 months of genocide with more than 60000 killed in Gaza, good many children and women, and as many wounded and mutilated, with Gaza being reduced to dust and rubble, is a war? One of the mightiest armies on the planet decimating population that possess basically just hand grenades, with more than 100 Palestinians killed for every Israeli, is a war? With the US completely supporting, or better enabling the genocide, is a war? I am shocked and heartbroken to see such biased outlook, such language that directly helps Israel go on with this total destruction of land and people.
Jews were deprived of their land and possessions in how many Arab countries? The number of displaced Jews almost exactly equals the number of displaced Arabs. But that’s not the point. Think back to the Minorities Treaties and the displacement of Armenians, Greeks, Turks, Slavs and more. In the 1940s and before it was normal. Don’t like it? Give America and Canada back to the Indigenous People before you complain.
Well, we are not witnessing the genocide of Jews, Slavs (me), Arabs, Turks, Armenians, indigenous people of America and Canada ... - we are witnessing the genocide in Gaza Strip - a well defined small territory that has been a concentration camp for decades. Every day people are being killed mutilated maimed burned, so many of them children, their land now turning into dust and rubble. I understand that you have no heart for them, no solidarity, no empathy - but you actually justify it because there are genocides before. Mind boggling and heartbreaking.
One of your best interviews. Barry Ritholtz is a fantastic guest as he has great stories, is very knowledgable and has a fantastic sense of humor. Beyond that he constantly cuts through the bovine scatology. Thanks very much!
The most striking thing about this colloquy is the reference to the financial crash. Pundits on CNBC and Fox News tried to blame the crash on the Community Reinvestment Act and Barney Frank. They were saying that no loans should ever be made to minorities. I was shocked but not surprised after working in commercial lending. The bigots reigned supreme.
Like so many others here, I thoroughly enjoyed this conversation. Maybe unlike many others here, economics & finance are not my bailiwick (I’m learning), but have long been my husband’s. We both follow you, so I was tickled to beat him to this post this morning, took the (later enthusiastically approved) liberty of adding both of Mr. Ritholtz’s books to his library list (especially since there are already holds on, “How Not to Invest”), and read him bits of it over coffee, from which our own enjoyable conversation ensued.
Several topics and themes in your interview/discussion very much reminded me of three other books I read recently and really enjoyed, so thought I’d mention them here since I have the distinct impression that they and “How Not to Invest” all complement each other nicely:
“The Psychology of Money” and “Same As Ever” by Morgan Housel, and “Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and why Everything we do Matters” by Brian Klaas (https://open.substack.com/pub/brianklaas)
As a collector of quotations since I was 14, quotes *are* my bailiwick, and in case no one else has pointed it out while I laboriously composed this, the quote Barry was trying to remember, originally written, “Don’t say things. What you are stands over you the while, and thunders so that I cannot hear what you say to the contrary”, wasn’t Wadsworth’s but Ralph Waldo Emerson’s. Quote Investigator, a great resource for both the correct attribution and evolution of quotes, includes it in their collection here: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/01/27/what-you-do-speaks/
My dad quoted Ralph Waldo Emerson’s line to me constantly
Walds, Words, I confused the two on the fly !
And my recent suggestion ended up in QI this week!
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2025/05/23/vague-exact/
I won’t ask what circumstances inspired your dad’s frequent quoting of Emerson’s line to you, but images of hands caught in cookie jars amid futile protests of innocence sprang immediately to mind. 😉
Congratulations! It’s not easy to make Q.I.’s quote question cut! I’m not surprised that you know and make use of Q.I., but the timing of your quote question being published there and my mentioning Q.I. here is a bit uncanny!
I hear you. It’s not easy, especially on the fly, keeping them straight. I mean, really — Ralph Waldo, William Wordsworth, Henry Wadsworth, Walt Whitman… mercy. 😵💫
https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/longfellow-and-emerson.htm
That was a truly entertaining conversation. Thanks to both of you.
People are buying at record rates because they fear prices will double with tariffs and, if they think they are going to be needing a new washing machine, a new car, a new dishwasher, soon, they go ahead and buy it before the price shoots up. It's what I'm doing: stocking up on clothes, getting a new car to replace my 13-year-old one, stuffing the freezer with bags of coffee, etc. It doesn't mean that I don't think the economy is going to tank. I do. I'm over $40,000 poorer than I was in early January, and I invest conservatively. There are a lot of people like me.