Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman

Home
Podcast
Notes
Korean đŸ‡°đŸ‡·
Archive
About

Ignorance and Ignominy

Our Hormuz humiliation was not an accident

Paul Krugman's avatar
Paul Krugman
Apr 08, 2026
Cross-posted by Paul Krugman
"The Pearl-Harbor-in-reverse surprise attempted decapitation strike against the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran launched a war in which everyone claims tactical success but suffers dire strategic defeat. Iran’s conventional military capacity has been shredded and its senior officials have been assassinated. But the Iranian rĂ©gime has survived, has bloodied U.S. allies, and—most important—has weaponized the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will now tax the oilflow. Plus I would be surprised if part of the price for fertilizer for Indus River valley farms will be charged to Pakistan in assistance in Iran’s going nuclear. Perhaps the only real winners are the IRGC honchos, newly promoted to power and status and with much more secure positions within Iran than their predecessors: "
- Brad DeLong

A sign on a street

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

So the world’s greatest military power went to war with a poor, medievalist theocracy. It was an incredibly uneven match. Here’s are the GDPs of Iran and the United States in 2024:

A blue line on a white background

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Yet Iran won. The Iranian regime has emerged far stronger than it was before, controlling the Strait of Hormuz and having demonstrated its ability to inflict damage on both its neighbors and the world economy. The U.S. has emerged far weaker, having demonstrated the limitations of its military technology, its strategic ineptitude and, when push comes to shove, its cowardice.

We’ve also destroyed our moral credibility: Trump may have TACOed at the last minute, but he threatened to commit gigantic war crimes — and for all practical purposes our political and civil institutions gave him permission to do so.

How did this happen? Naturally, the Iranian Minister of War credited divine intervention, declaring that “God deserves all the glory.” His nation, he said, fought with the “protection of divine providence. A massive effort with miraculous protection.”

Well, theocrats gonna theocrat.

But I lied. That wasn’t a quote from an Iranian official. That’s what Pete Hegseth, our self-proclaimed Secretary of War, said while claiming that one of the worst strategic defeats in American history was a great victory.

There will be many analyses by military and strategic experts of the Iran debacle. But let’s not lose sight of the larger picture: We were led to disaster by the boastful ignorance of men like Trump and Hegseth — boastful ignorance made even worse by claims that God supports whatever they want to do.

With men like that running America, major disasters were just a matter of time. I’d like to think that they have been chastened by this debacle, that they have learned something. But I don’t believe that for a minute.

God help us.

MUSICAL CODA

No posts

© 2026 Paul Krugman · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture