Trump’s parade flopped. No Kings Day was a hit.

Right now, images largely determine the outcome

America is no longer a full-fledged democracy. We are currently living under a version of competitive authoritarianism — a system that (like Orban’s Hungary or Erdogan’s Turkey) is still democratic on paper but in which a ruling party no longer takes democracy’s rules seriously. As a result those in power

violate those rules so often and to such an extent … that the regime fails to meet conventional minimum standards for democracy.

Trumpists, however, haven’t yet fully consolidated their hold. America still has a chance of reclaiming itself from the grip of brazen corruption, mindless destruction, and contempt both for the rule of law and for our erstwhile allies. We don’t have to become a country bullied into submission.

But we’re teetering on the edge, and one of the most important ways we can step back from that edge is for ordinary Americans to engage in mass protests.

On Saturday I, along with friends, joined the No Kings Day protest in New York. The protest was huge despite the rain, but I don’t know how to estimate crowd sizes. Others do, however. And the poll analyst G. Elliott Morris has worked with a number of independent journalists to produce rough estimates of how many people participated in the protests nationwide, and comes up with a number between 4 and 6 million. That’s a huge number. Remarkably, these massive protests were almost entirely peaceful.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump got the military parade he wanted for his birthday. And it was a box-office bust, probably attracting far fewer people than the 250,000 the White House claimed. In fact, the optics were simply embarrassing. As the Washington Post noted,

Some in the crowd filed out as the parade continued, the number of onlookers thinning before the president gave his remarks. Even bleacher seating for VIP guests, positioned directly across from a riser for news cameras, remained half-empty throughout the program.

Why does this matter? Is counting attendance in rival rallies just an exercise in one-upmanship?

No. Right now crowd sizes matter a lot because competitive authoritarianism rests largely on self-fulfilling expectations.

What do I mean by this? While there is a cadre of Trumpist true believers who will obey the Leader under any circumstances, most of those doing the dirty work of undermining democracy and the rule of law are cowards and opportunists. They’re willing to participate in the destruction of America as we know it because they believe that many others will do the same. As a result, they believe that they are unlikely to face any personal consequences for their actions and may even be rewarded for their lawbreaking.

And what of those who oppose Trumpism? While there are heroes willing to take a stand against tyranny whatever the personal cost, most anti-Trumpists are reluctant to stick their necks out unless they believe that they are part of a widespread resistance that will grant them some measure of safety in numbers.

In other words, the victory or defeat of competitive authoritarianism will depend to a large extent on which side ordinary people believe will win. If Trump looks unstoppable, resistance will wither away and democracy will be lost. On the other hand, if he appears weak and stymied, resistance will grow and — just maybe — American democracy will survive.

So what we saw on Saturday was more than just the juxtaposition of a poorly attended parade that was supposed to glorify the Leader against massive, enthusiastic protests. We also saw a body blow to Trump’s image of invincibility and a demonstration that millions of Americans are willing to stand up for democracy.

Furthermore, other developments are also suggesting a serious pushback against Trumpism. One is the remarkable comeuppance of law firms that capitulated to Trump’s threats and signed deals agreeing to do pro bono work on behalf of Trump’s causes. Now they see their top talent and major clients walking out the door, moving to firms that had the courage to stand up to Trump.

Another encouraging sign is the blowback against the administration’s aggressive, lawless roundups of immigrants, with hardly any effort to determine whether they are legally here. Many pundits assumed that the spectacle of arrests and deportations, would work to Trump’s political advantage. But the polling is clear: ICE’s actions have caused Trump’s approval on immigration to plunge, while there is strong opposition to his attempts to militarize immigration policy.

This isn’t the end of the assault on American democracy. It isn’t even the beginning of the end. But it may well be the end of the beginning. Trump spent his first 6 months in office trying to steamroller over all opposition, creating the impression that resistance is futile. Clearly, he hasn’t succeeded. On the contrary, resistance is stiffening, and those who preemptively capitulated seem to be paying a higher price than those who showed some backbone.

Although the tide may be turning, MAGA isn’t simply going to roll over and slink away. On the contrary, the administration’s power grabs will become even more aggressive and desperate, with growing efforts to intimidate, prosecute and even physically harm political opponents, as well as widespread efforts to suppress dissent with force.

Nonetheless, despite the difficult times ahead, America has just passed an important test. May freedom ring.

MUSICAL CODA