Trump Is a Virus
Chaos is about to take its toll
Hammering out a few words before getting on the bike.
It has been amazing to watch the stock market gyrating in response to things that aren’t even policy changes — they’re hints and rumors of policy changes. Today’s Washington Post has an article with the headline “White House eases tone on tariffs on China but won’t be cutting them soon.” OK, how much does the change in “tone” tell you about what will actually happen?
Why, then, did stocks rise on this non-news? I’d say that the market is like someone caught in an abusive relationship — still in denial, seizing on every hint of decency as evidence that their partner is really changing their ways.
Apparently investors and the news media still haven’t learned that you can’t read supposed insider reports on administration thinking the way you could in a normal administration — as indications of where the policy process is headed. There is no policy process. Trump will zigzag based on who talked to him last. Maybe his next move will be determined by what guests say at the dinner he’s throwing for those who gave him the biggest bribes — which is the literal description of major purchasers of the $Trump coin.
I’d say never mind the stock market. Focus on the real economy, where everything says that policy chaos will soon take a real toll. The Fed’s Beige Book, which looks what businesses are saying, says that “uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports.” And this uncertainty will have dire effects on the real economy.
Many forecasters now expect a recession. But the impact of erratic tariffs and tariff threats may occur even before the economy has time to slump.
Preliminary data suggest that imports from Asia, after surging as importers tried to front-run tariffs, are now collapsing. See the chart at the top of this post.
The CEOs of Target and Walmart reportedly warned Trump that we may be seeing empty shelves within weeks. And foreign trade won’t be revived by hints dropped at closed-door financial conferences. Companies need some certainty about policy, which they won’t get.
In other words, we may soon see a disruption of supply chains reminiscent of what happened during and after the Covid pandemic. But this time a virus won’t be responsible. It will all be about Donald Trump. And this time there won’t be a vaccine coming to our rescue. We’re stuck with this chaos agent for three years and three months.
He doesn’t have policies; he has whims
Trump and Trumpism are cancerous, and like many cancers, have grown quite awhile in the dark, before rising to a sufferer's awareness. And we are suffering. Sometimes I think a too-large portion of my life, my liberty and my happiness has been eaten away throughout this past decade. But perhaps 'suffering' is the operative word. At some point suffering will force greater awareness and consequent efforts to rid ourselves of the tumors. Hopefully, we'll also learn a thing or two about the changes we're going to have to make to avoid a relapse.