What Happens When There Are No Deals?

Trump's tariff fantasies are colliding with reality. Now what?

I’m still traveling and won’t resume normal posting for a while. No primer today. But I have time to talk briefly about the mystery of the tariff endgame.

Trump could just say, “I’m imposing huge tariffs, and that’s that.” But he keeps insisting that he’s imposing tariffs because other countries treat America unfairly, and that he’ll force them to stop. This fantasy of dominance runs into two problems: most countries aren’t treating us unfairly, and trade negotiations are going badly if they’re happening at all. Yet Trump keeps insisting that big deals with other countries are just around the corner. Read his amazing interview with Time:

Your trade adviser, Peter Navarro, says 90 deals in 90 days is possible. We're now 13 days into the point from when you lifted the reciprocal, the discounted reciprocal tariffs. There's zero deals so far. Why is that?

No, there’s many deals.

When are they going to be announced?

You have to understand, I'm dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We're meeting with China. We're doing fine with everybody. But ultimately, I've made all the deals.

Not one has been announced yet. When are you going to announce them?

I’ve made 200 deals.

You’ve made 200 deals?

100%

In case you’re wondering, China has ridiculed Trump, saying that there are no negotiations. Who do you believe? This is a case of he said, Xi said. But given Trump’s long history of fantasies and delusions of grandeur, as well as Xi’s long history of being single-minded and indefatigable, I believe the Chinese.

Also, Japanese trade negotiators have gone home because they can’t get any clarity on what America wants. Among other things, Trump has berated the Japanese for testing American cars by dropping bowling balls on them — which they don’t.

At some point, and soon, Trump’s fantasy of trade dominance will become unsustainable. And he’s hitting the wall on many other fronts, including his other signature issues, the economy and immigration. Recent polling has been brutal: Trump has no strengths left.

Ler me be clear: Trump hitting the wall this early is a good thing for the survival of U.S. democracy. Consolidation of one-party rule looks a lot less likely today than it did a few weeks ago.

But where do we go from here? Unlike the British parliamentary system, the U.S. has no break-the-glass off switch that lets us get rid of a deeply unpopular and delusional leader. Impeachment won’t happen, because this isn’t the Nixon era: Trump’s party is too corrupt to help save the country.

So we must begin to ask ourselves: in the 1364 days left of the Trump administration, how much damage can he do? And what can those of us who want to save the country do to minimize the damage?

More on this in forthcoming posts.