I would like to insert a different direction of thought into the dialogue. And that is while from a regime change/oil seizing strategy there is no obvious benefit to the interests of the US, there were a couple of very large benefits to the Trump administration by taking these insane actions: 1. Distraction (anyone talking about the Epstein files and DOJ thumbing their noses at Congress, the courts, and the MAGA base? Nope.); 2. Chipping away at the rule of law and the US’ reputation for justice and democracy (it has been proven that is over and not hypothetical); 3. Intimidation and use of force without any checks on power (dissuades dissent and opens the door to others to expect irrational and violent action at anytime); and probably not lastly 4. Proof that “flooding the zone” works. I could keep going but my point is that we are seeing, in real time now, what (as just one example) decent people living in Germany in the 1930s saw unfolding in slow motion over years. Only what took years back then happens now in weeks. I anticipate more of this to come, with unfortunately increased insanity as there doesn’t seem to be any power internally or externally that can stop these people. They have no boundaries or decency. I think people need to acknowledge what is truly, foundational, going on in a big picture way and start calling things the way it is, not with heads in the sand. Before it’s too late.
Jeff, thanks for such an interesting take on things. I just read “The Oppermanns” and from the point of view of people on the street in Berlin, the Nazi take-over and consolidation happened in a very short time, like weeks. Certainly, Mein Kampf and so forth, shows that they had planned for years and that some things moved slowly. But most people were in denial (like in today’s USA) and the Nazis just scythed through and it was all over in a matter of weeks. Obviously, we have the same thing here, forty years or more of the fascists setting up institutes, and getting the media they needed, and getting the funding (that wasn’t hard!) and getting to know each other, and now with Project 2025 being public, there are no surprises, but the fascists have moved quite slowly compared to what happened when Hitler became chancellor. Very interesting. I hope everyone reading here will be out on the streets this weekend. Demonstrations are planned everywhere — please find one and get out there, with a flag or a sign. Thanks!
Little fact that might help you understand the speed of the nazi take-over.
I skip the pre history and start at the installation of the Austrian corporal as defacto leader of Germany.
30 JAN 1933 - The Austrian corporal is 'installed' as Reichskanzler
28 FEB 1933 - Reichstag fire and the next day limitation of the civil rights of Germans due to an "emergency" (the Reichstag fire)
3 MAR 1933 - new election that the nazi's hope to win
The nazi's "only" get 43% of the vote but with the help of the social-democrats and the christian parties they can rule as if alone.
23 MAR 1933 - democracy is cancelled, the Austrian corporal is dictator. The nazi party is the only political party allowed.
Side fact: the Dachau kamp was opened "for business" on 22 MAR 1933
So 7 weeks from installation as Reichskanzler to full dictatorship.
Yes there was time between the bierkellerputch in Münich (1923) and the installation as Reichskanzler (1933). But the actual road to dictatorship is really short and quick.
Wow, that really puts a point on it. Sense of urgency and all of that. And the Nazis didn’t even have social media and Fox News to help them so now what?
Actually, they had radio, and an extensive press. And they had Josef Goebbels, who definitely understood how to run a propaganda operation. They had the 1930s equivalents of what you think they lacked.
What now? When there is a protest near you, show up and protest. Numbers mater. Also, maybe someone that knows you will see you at the protest on the news and think, oh Sam is protesting, I guess I should protest too. Numbers matter.
Besides what is left of media, we still have the threat of elections. I think as Trump's dementia gets worse by the day and he is able to focus less and less, Republicans in Congress are feeling and starting to respond to election pressures! We also should note that the American People have been woken up more and more by each instance of Cruelty the Administration subjects us to. Each succeeding succeeding election held shows a greater and greater swing to the left or democrats. Tuesday in Virginia, the election for a State Senate Seat was won by the Democrat 69% to 30% with 95% of the vote in. I don't remember the exact partial percentage points. Every time these elections happen which is at least monthly more Republicans join Democrats in Congress to rebuff The worst of Administration Madness! This makes more and more districts swing districts even with redistricting. It finally has reached the Administration that they are in no way going to win the Midterms with Dementia Donny stating his worry out loud and threatening to cancel the Midterms. If he does, but is ruled by the courts that cancelling the Midterms is illegal, he loses the legal right to be able to legally claim that the Congressional Authority to Vote for War is valid. Then we can use that legal ground to take away his legal rights as Commander in Chief. I think the Military Brass would still respect court orders on his rights to Command. We can hope! The Fascists behind having Trump be the President have no popular viable politician to replace him or they would have done it by now with the 25th Amendment.They are running out of Time too! They can't even keep Dementia Don on track for even a oil conference lasting a few hours. How do the Fascist Regime hang on to power even for several more months to Completely throw the Constitution out the window and declare Democracy Done? That is the scarry part as we the opposition tiptoe through this minefield to the other side. Only then can we start rebuilding our Country back to full Democracy and after that try to rebuild some stability to World Order, another future minefield! Won't happen in my lifetime but I have great grandchildren for that!
What would have stopped Hitler, back in 1933? I'm wondering if we can use that set of scenarios like a wind tunnel of sorts... I'm sure that if both Congress and SCOTUS wanted MAGA stopped, MAGA would be stopped. But I'm now thinking even if Congress halted funding, SCOTUS might overturn the legislation. I'm way outta my depth with this, but I haven't seen a credible theory for how this gets de-escalated... If the US is no better than Venezuela, and no better than Germany in 1933, it's going to take outside powers to get this stopped. Can that possibly be true? I am not prepared to think in these terms. 😱???
I’m glad I’m not the only one seeing this. Demonstrations will have little effect against an administration that has no boundaries against rule of law violations. Most supporters of this lawless administration only listen to propaganda on the conservative news outlets, posts, and blogs and podcasts. They truthfully don’t even know the truth of what happened to Renee. Why not? I would like to start up an idea that this can be reversed. It is imperative that the Democrats reverse this because only they have the resources financially to do this. There is a way. Nobody’s discussing it. I don’t know why, it’s a no-brainer. The Democrats have had hundreds of millions of dollars at their disposal. What do they use it for? They feed it to campaign consultants, media entities, etc. it’s useless. It’s always preaching to the choir. These massive resources should be getting used immediately to fund strike force type communication efforts to deprogram the brainwashed and willfully misinformed. The MAGAs are well ahead of this game already. Proof? Consider the fact that immediately after Renee was shot administration leadership had assembled ,promoted, posted and published a false narrative that was immediately picked up and parroted by conservative news media. And that is the only thing your MAGA neighbors is listening to. They must be told the truth. They must. Some people say that those outlets would never allow such to targeted and focused advertising to be shown on their networks. I thoroughly disagree. Money is money. That’s all they care about. Do you think Rupert Murdoch really gives a shit about Donald Trump. He’s already said he doesn’t. He just likes the money that his audience brings him. If you agree, spread this idea in all your forums. I don’t think we have a lot of time. Anybody talking about the Epstein files anymore? Nope. Not after Venezuela. Is anybody talking about Venezuela now. Nope. Not after Renee was shot. It’s only going to get worse.
Jeff, thanks for this analysis. What a great idea, to buy ad time on Fox. How I wish the DNC were listening. They are as bad as the Trumpies in some ways. They are just talking inside their bubble. The only thing I disagree on in your note is demonstrating. It has many effects outside of convincing an administration that isn’t listening. Probably the main thing is letting people see that they aren’t alone. That is one thing that reading “The Oppermanns” brought home to me. The Jews and intellectuals and so forth didn’t know what was going to happen, and by the time they realized, it was too late. They were already fragmented and alone. We have their unfortunate example to refer to, and we can realize that we are not alone and that there are more every day.
I believe that demonstrations will not deter the trump coterie or the disillusioned followers but they show the power and displeasure of the world we are living in as with so much of human nature seeing your neighbors and friends--people that you admire or consider smart--out on the street to protest may make a significant number of those MAGAS reconsider their positions. With that may come our own "regime change" and while I agree we can probably never be what we once were, we can reclaim the good and get rid of the bad elements in our government. Am I too much of an optimist?
I guess I should clarify that I’m not saying people should not demonstrate. I’m just saying I don’t see it doing much good. The reason is that what will show on Fox News are isolated incidents or manufactured instances that show that these are far right antifa people creating problems. They are the enemy, blah blah blah. So the magnets don’t see people protesting out of anything. Other than the fact they think they’re the enemy to be fought and I am afraid many of them celebrate violent actions like what happened to René this week. I also believe that the Maga administration wants to get people out protesting because there is more potential now for further incidents that will solidify the Maga base because of the way they will be portrayed on Fox/NM/AON. These people are much more clever than Democrats. They have a long game. Project 2025 was published. They weren’t afraid to do that but what they didn’t tell you is what was under the covers of that. They don’t talk about it out loud they talk about behind closed doors.
I think one of the biggest problems is that a lot of us assumed they would play mostly by the rules and obey the law and some norms. In Trump 1 he pushed the boundaries but didn't cross many and I sort of expected the same in Trump 2. Project 2025 was a possibility but not with all those checks and balances and assuming they follow the law. Particularly with impoundments the law has no teeth that I can tell.
It is said that the Constitution is not a suicide pact. Increasingly, it looks as if it is. The Trump-MAGA-Republicans think that there are only a small coterie of white, wealthy, male, crypto-christians deserving of holding power. Accordingly, they are willing to tell any lie, spread disinformation constantly and thickly, cheat, and break or ignore any rule or norm, and ignore any sense of comity and fair play--the fabric the holds the political process together. Some examples: McConnell denies Obama advise and consent on his Supreme Court nominee for a specious reason which he later flips on its head to push through Trump's nominee when the same circumstances exist; Mike Johnson keeps the House out of session for 45 days to prevent swearing in an elected Democrat Congresswoman; Trump impounds funds intended for Blues states and for Purple states who have the temerity to elect Democrats; DoJ ignoring court orders and newly enacted legislation that has passed both Houses of Congress almost unanimously.
So, is it possible to pull a Michelle Obama and take the high road when the MAGAt Regime is not bound by any rules at all? Protests are good; education is good, too; but American voter people don't seem to relish becoming educated unless the teacher is cancelling their rights or identity, or trying to steal their lunch money.
We need strikes, economic boycotts, millions of marchers bringing government agencies in D.C. and around the nation to a stand still.
We may even need armed public safety committees to protect our towns and neighborhoods. When the authoritarian regime controls the entire system of law and accountability, the military, and a masked, belligerent, armed and incognito police force loyal only to a mad king, fine words and thoughtfully honed legal briefs are not going to save us.
Fellow Jeff, I have a tiny bit of hope some of the MAGA believers might see the truth. The videos of the ICE shooting show the obvious. The regime accounting that she was mowing down ICE and the vilification of Good is an demonstratable lie. And if you were a believer and see an obvious lie about this, then maybe you start questioning that they are lying about everything else. Not everyone, but start picking off some who still have a functioning brain left.
Frau's right....all of these conservatives think she had it coming if you read comments to various substack & social media commentary on the topic. The neanderthals have been brainwashed. It's going to take violence to give them an attitude adjustment.
this post is SO important--and I never hear this critique elsewhere, save the general astonishment of "where are the Democrats?" What in the WORLD do the Dems and their funding entities do with all the hundreds of millions they raise? Wykoff is right: they use it in the most uncreative and non-tactical ways to preach to the choir. It is absolutely incredible to me that, beginning with the barrage of outrageous executive orders in the first few weeks of the 2nd Trump term, and continuing through the disastrous and extremely unpopular period of Musk's manhandling of DOGE....that the Dems put NO ADS on TV, basically did nothing while there was so much hay to be made. This inaction and lack of creativity continues to this day. We should be seeing, for example, stuff on TV, 30-second spots, about the ending of health care tax subsidies, the increase in healthcare prices, and such boondoggles as the Venezuela adventure. Trump is doing incredibly unpopular things and saying the most preposterous things that only injure and weaken the nation ("I don't need international law"! ie, we need no allies) etc etc. Where have the Dem ads showing Stephen Miller foaming at the mouth been? what in the world are the Dems doing--who is in charge of their public outreach? The Krugman column we are responding to here in itself supplies material for 10 effective commercials, which should be visible every night alongside the very creepy Christie Noem warnings to immigrants to self-deport or be shipped to jails in Sudan. Where are the Democrats???? this makes me more upset than my upset over Trump's actions--which we understand al too well and cannot shock us any longer.
What would have stopped Hitler, back in 1933? I'm wondering if we can use that set of scenarios like a wind tunnel of sorts... I'm sure that if both Congress and SCOTUS wanted MAGA stopped, MAGA would be stopped. But I'm now thinking even if Congress halted funding, SCOTUS might overturn the legislation. I'm way outta my depth with this, but I haven't seen a credible theory for how this gets de-escalated... If the US is no better than Venezuela, and no better than Germany in 1933, it's going to take outside powers to get this stopped. Can that possibly be true? I am not prepared to think in these terms. 😱???
We absolutely need to do both: demonstrate and try to ‘steer’ the right-wing media. Much better use of that money to get the truth out to right wing. Also, demonstration must be completely peaceful otherwise it will boomerang.
Yes, our demonstrations must be peaceful, but be prepared for the fact that Fox will show videos of violent riots (in other countries if necessary) and claim that's us. They recently showed hundreds of people celebrating Maduro's kidnapping and claimed they were filmed in Venezuela. The backgrounds proved that they were filmed in Florida.
The Goddamned demonstrations don't do jack shit other than provide news filler. I read that Europe's diplomats are trying to work with US congress people to dissuade the current administration from "doing it the hard way" of invading Greenland & taking it. Let's just cut to the Goddamned mofo chase and say our current president and most of the Epstein class have compromat on them and are doing Russia & Israel's bidding with a cut of the deal in it for them...just like cartel's "silver or lead" capture of their government. The person who shot Renee Good was well-trained and a mid-eastern war vet and by viewing the videos on Noah Smith?s Substack site, it would be fair to believe that most of the military will follow the current regime's orders. How are we going to take this regime out before they start WW 3?
My sympathies, leave my name off. I share your frustration. Demonstrations, however, have more than one effect, and the main one I depend on is helping opposition members nurture community and see that they are not alone. If combined with pressure on Congresspeople and state governments, they show that the opposition is organized and growing. Also they increase the ability of the opposition to monitor what is going on. If we didn’t have multipositional videos of the murder of Ms. Good, it could have happened in silence and unopposed. This is one thing I gleaned from reading “The Oppermanns.” As the Nazis came into power, they immediately began separating and beating/imprisoning/killing people they thought might form an opposition. If the opposition in the US were not present, the orcs could also do that here. So anyway, demonstrations are not the only thing we need to do, but they are important and effective in their own way.
The MSM has, for the most part, congratulated our military for abducting the Madura's. Thankfully the AP has put together this overview of those killed or wounded in the abduction.
"At least 24 Venezuelan security officers were killed in the U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s military announced Monday, bringing the official death count up to at least 56 people.
According to the Pentagon, seven U.S. servicemembers were injured in Saturday’s raid in Caracas, and the injuries included gunshot wounds and shrapnel-related injuries, a U.S. official told The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation. Of the servicemembers, five have already returned to duty while two are still recovering.
In addition to the 24 Venezuelan security officers, 32 Cuban military and police officers working in Venezuela were also killed, according to Cuba’s government, prompting two days of mourning on the Caribbean island.
More civilians in Venezuela were killed in the strikes, AP reporting shows, but it wasn’t immediately clear how many."
Apparently, human life means nothing to the MSM and the Trump administration. The administration is a Fascist administration -- top to bottom and the MSM, including The NY Times, WAPO, CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC and many others are all Trump apologists.
Quit being an apologist for thugs. I visited Cuba when Obama was in office and if we're so fucking free, why weren't we allowed and now aren't allowed to visit Cuba when Europeans and Canadians do?
A large, general strike in the US may be a way to give the Trump admin pause. I'm not sure what they'd do 50 million Americans simply sat down, at home, peacefully on strike.
This TV game show host knows how to build enough tension within the narrative to keep the viewers tuned in to the latest & greatest distraction. Plus Little Marco wants to get a toe hold in Venezuela to increase the likelihood of overtaking Castro in Cuba.
It’s very much like Cheney & Rumsfeld’s attempt to sweep into Iraq when their real target was Iran. Unfortunately, dismantling Iraq turned out to be way more difficult than they anticipated.
I just want to throw out the kind of alley-way grift corruption pattern swirling in the cosmos of my brain trying to stick together without any glue. I keep asking and trying to put a mechanical structure together from the following loose strands on where the Venezuela profit could deliver benefits (beyond the distraction from Epstein).
What about the Trump family crypto investments and the statements Trump has made recently on controlling the Venezuelan revenues? Plus a recent news note that Trump is going to bring Crypto formally into the banking system. I pile this on top of the fact that crypto remains a shadowy cash system for moving illicit goods. Then jumping over to the Trump boys interest and holdings in crypto makes me speculate how these revenues will actually flow should the big oil companies walk away from this deal. Then on the final far side of things there is reported experience Rubio's youthful family background touched up against (I read he worked shortly for his brother in-law a cocaine dealer). And I don't quit there as there is the odd cog of the Honduran Hernandez pardon.
I do not disagree with a single thing you said, however I do not see how a teetering democracy like ours could ever establish a stable democracy somewhere else. We aren’t even doing it here.
I don't bother reading your entire comments any more - the first sentence or two is enough. But I would tell you that being an apologist for Nazis is a bad look. Or, if you object to that term, being an apologist for authoritarian murderers (and not just of Good), who are destroying the rule of law in front of our eyes, is not a good look.
Oh, dear. He shot once through the windshield, driver’s side. Then twice more through her open driver’s side window.
Recent video from the shooter’s cell phone camera shows that Renee Good had the temerity to pleasantly say “I’m not mad at you.”
The other woman in the scene pointed out that he got the car’s license plate. She told him to leave and “go get lunch.” She could not be accused of trying to run him over, as she was on foot.
Now might be a good time to mention that the One Big Bill allocated $170 Billion to the Dept. of Homeland Security for immigration and border enforcement. Compare this to the $83 Billion UK budget for defense against foreign enemies., or France’s $74 Billion. (We have a separate Dept. of War budget, which Trump wants to reach $1.5 Trillion.)
Holding signs & protesting doesn't amount to shit. Some organized outfit is going to have to come in and do to Trump what he did to Maduro. Unfortunately, I'm not an insider; if I was, he'd be gone.
Texas Congressman Wesley Hunt put it this way. “The bottom line is this: When a federal officer gives you instructions, you abide by them and then you get to keep your life.”
A successful democratic Iran, Cuba, Congo, etc.......would have been a real win-win if the Dulles brothers backed by US corporate interests wouldn't have put the screws to that.
I don’t think MAGA wants a democratic Venezuelan. They probably think rightfully that weak authoritarian regimes are easier to control. A successful democracy is a threat. MAGA has shunned pretty much all the western style democracies. Look what’s happening in the USA.
It’s more about whose approval he desires. Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, interviewed several years ago, spoke about Trump’s behavior around Putin at an international conference. He said that Trump acted like a young junior varsity athlete around a varsity star. He followed him around, hero-worshiping, waiting for crumbs of attention. I seem to recall that he found it creepy.
Trump is his own best friend. When not attacking women or his sons, his other primary focus of his criminal activity has been embezzling from his own businesses to such a clumsily rapacious degree that he bankrupts them, and moves on...note he likes to say that all the tariff and hijacked oil money will Be Controlled by Him. He seeks worshipers.
“Back to the U.S. role in the world: can the U.S. ever get back to where it was?”
Sure it can. And that’s the sad part: Europe mostly just waits for it. Right now, it’s basically trying to make it to the U.S. midterms, hoping things will change—and that things won’t go to shit too badly before then.
Cheers from Germany! Thanks Paul and Philips for the great discussion.
I read the NYT article about Svalbard (is that correct sp?) today. The EU needs to act all bully like Trump and state and activate that they are moving their ice breaker ships, Nordic-trained military (our's is sub-par compared to their's) there to counter all threats to NATO, which includes US as member. Let the mofo come up with some bs propaganda to counter that.
I don't think there's any question that Trump's an idiot, and always has been. The problem is that he's an idiot who was born with $ who's also a psychopath/malignant narcissist/pathological liar. Bad, bad combo.
Trump seems to be convinced that if he can personally act abusively, and won't be immediately stopped, that he must be important. His ego is so frail, that he needs that, and praise from others he trusts (like Putin).
So yes, this destruction is deliberate.
Aided by the syncophants around him.
Unfortunately the collateral damage seriously harms the country, and the rest of the world.
Which is why the democratic world is starting to wake up.
Japan has stated they with defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression (if the US doesn't). Canada and western and central Europe are stepping up for Ukraine, to replace former US support.
When the US wakes up, they will find a very different world. The US will no longer be the king created by destructive European wars.
The question is now which of Europe, China, or India will become, in time, the new dominant power.
I encourage anyone interested in a deep dive into the Constitution to to read (or do as I did and listen to the audio version) Professor Jill Lepore’s book We the People: The History of the U.S. Constitution. After learning so much more about the Constitution than I knew before, I couldn’t call it “a piece of paper,” but I am now equally convinced that the framers never viewed their work as a masterpiece that should remain forever unaltered and answering every situation that might arise in the future.
The US constitution has been altered by some very bad suppreme court decisions that were clearly against the original principles. Like to right to bear arms in support of a well organized militia evolving to the right to bear arms to terrorize the neighbourhood.
Another failed-up offspring...how many before this country is truly toast? On another note, a fellow alum (not me) of Williams College told me today that Reza Pahlavi jr flunked out. Pahlavi claims that he should be Iran's hereditary ruler if its current government is toppled.
A few months back a billionaire donor to Trump bought the three Citgo refineries in Louisiana that had been used to process Venezuelan crude. Follow the oil, follow the money.
We now have a fascist government that uses fascist tactics but, unlike Hitler, is not really interested in running foreign countries. They just want the money that can be squeezed out of it. I don't know what you call a fascist government that is primarily interested in the personal wealth to be gained. Trump is also using it to evade criminal accountability.
Heather Cox Richardson posted a WWII pamphlet produced by the War Department of that time. Here's an excerpt. "Fascism is government by the few and for the few. The objective is seizure and control of the economic, political, social, and cultural life of the state.” “The people run democratic governments, but fascist governments run the people.”
“The basic principles of democracy stand in the way of their desires; hence—democracy must go! Anyone who is not a member of their inner gang has to do what he’s told. They permit no civil liberties, no equality before the law. .... Fascism treats women as mere breeders. ‘Children, kitchen, and the church,’ was the Nazi slogan for women."
"Fascists make their own rules and change them when they choose…. They maintain themselves in power by use of force combined with propaganda based on primitive ideas of ‘blood’ and ‘race,’ by skillful manipulation of fear and hate, and by false promise of security. The propaganda glorifies war and insists it is smart and ‘realistic’ to be pitiless and violent.”
Fascists understand that “the fundamental principle of democracy—faith in the common sense of the common people—is the direct opposite of the fascist principle of rule by the elite few,” the pamphlet explained, “[s]o they fought democracy…. They played political, religious, social, and economic groups against each other and seized power while these groups struggled.”
I’d venture to guess you could call it an autocratic oligarchy, but the name matters less than the deeds themselves. Giving a name to it is window dressing. Fascism is but one form of autocratic rule. I try to stay focused on the acts and intents of this regime; they’re frightening enough.
Minor comment. I read the transcript at a public space. The automated transcription struggles with people’s names, i.e. Mark and Jason instead of Marc Andreesen.
Wonderful conversation. So many tidbits of depressing information. The assessment of how the US makes war is especially apt. And re Venezuela, well we have engaged in performance art but nothing changed except that we have weakened the Democratic opposition.
Agreed. Trump is upending the very rules-based world order that America itself created. He is looking to carve up the world into spheres of influence, regressing Latin America foreign policy into an era of banana republics. I wrote about it here:
Not intended to advertise by any means but coincidentally I'm reading Mr. O'Brien's new book "War and Power, Who Wins Wars - and Why" at the moment. It's a nice starting point if you want to understand power beyond counting tanks and rockets. And why it is a fatal flaw to believe that kidnapping one dictator shows 'real' power.
Paul Singer is buying Citgo refineries that need the Venezuela heavy crude. trump is securing the oil for Singer's refineries. The 50 million barrels that he was bragging about will be going directly to his refineries.
He is the vulture capitalist who runs Elliott Investment Management. They do own 54 million shares of Southwest Airlines. They forced the airline to name six new directors to its board, and its Chairman Gary Kelly retired several months earlier than expected. When Elliott takes an interest in your company it is bad news.
Yep, I have written about the whole thing, including Southworst's two rounds of cave-ins even after having adopted a poison pill. The second cave-in, especially, is disgusting because a company sponsored research survey said that they would lose more money from passenger loss if they ended bags fly free than the money they'd make from bag fees.
And, it happened here. Most recent trip, I flew the AA out of DFW, not Southworst out of Love.
It appears that the pictures of Obama in the situation room, during the killing of Osama Bin Laden, was what he really aimed for with the attack on Venezuela. Those visuals look so presidential, and manly, and in charge - so Trump wanted an equivalent with him in the picture.
But he was too lazy and his people too incompetent to actually pull it off.
Just a note: You can't pump Venezuelan oil in its natural state. Most of it is tar sands. It has to be mined and then heavily processed before it becomes heavy crude and can be put in pipelines, train cars or tankers. Then it has to go to refineries specifically built for it. If anyone wants to see how it's done, look to the Canadian oil industry, which is based on the tar sands of Northern Alberta. You might also want to note the massive amount of pollution and greenhouse gases produced.
Excellent insights….albeit depressing. I’ve always sensed that Putin has something on Trump and I still think it’s true. The Epstein files certainly has Trump terrified. The real question (again depressing) is what are the MAGA/GOP going to do? The Dems have tried to impeach Trump twice. And they aren’t willing to do anything “non rules based”, so there is a dependency on Trump supporters to turn against this. Unless the stock market crashes, will he lose supporters and money? We all seem stalled and watching this spiral downward.
As Kyle Rysdahl of the "Marketplace" program has said hundreds of times, "The stock market is not the economy." I doubt that Trump keeps his ill-gotten gains in the market, so he probably won't lose there, and if the tariff waffling didn't cost him support amongst the CEO's nothing will. Supposedly, his popularity is steadily declining and is the lowest of any President since we've been keeping track, but I, for one, don't trust polls any more.
Two points: first, Trump's trashing the rules-based international order has left the world a much, much more dangerous place. Rules, even imperfect rules, lead to predictability. If this, then that. We now have a nation that once acted as the world's keel run by a petulant imbecile. Predictability has vanished and when predictability is gone it is replaced by guesswork - and one bad guess can lead to a cascade of horror.
Second, and this is one of the great truths that few seem to grasp, actions matter, words don't. Politicians lie, nearly reflexively. But the Trump administration has unleashed torrents of lies, lies at industrial scale. And yet the news media dutifully reports every utterance, rarely demanding evidence supporting the lies. If you want to know what is going on in Trumpland watch what they actually do and ignore what they say they are doing.
It is an ouroboros of mutual self-defeat. Readers want to be titillated or have their biases confirmed. Editors give them what they want and wonder why the mainstream media is mistrusted.
Contrary to popular belief, narcissists often do worship individuals who represent ultimate power. We often see Trump come at people with this extreme performative aggression. The ones who respond through sycophantism enjoy crumbs from his table, but they don’t last long. Once someone is willing to defy Trump to his face, Trump will retreat completely and raise that person to a pedestal. It probably has to be a man (women represent empathy qua weakness to him) and probably someone who responds to Trump not with anger or defense but apathy. Mamdani, Xi, Putin…these people openly treat Trump as if he’s irrelevant. Trump must subconsciously save his wounded ego “they must not see me as important because they are so powerful.” Also he hides his fear and cowardice by trying to become their best friend. A lot of people fight Trump. That doesn’t work. It’s the ones that obviously don’t take him seriously that become his new boss.
"There’s a real question about what actually happened. This was suspiciously easy." At this point, it might be proper to note than dozens of actual people were killed in addition to the 100s on the boats leading up to this. What was all the scattered bombings about? Magician's distraction trick?
As the piece noted, civilians were also killed, though we don't know how many. And I'm almost willing to bet that of those killed whom you mention, none were as thuggish as the current American president.
So the Cuban Missile Crisis is the new rationale du jour? How did we somehow get to Cold War hysteria over a Latin American petty despot presiding over a country so troubled that a quarter of its population has already left?
I would like to insert a different direction of thought into the dialogue. And that is while from a regime change/oil seizing strategy there is no obvious benefit to the interests of the US, there were a couple of very large benefits to the Trump administration by taking these insane actions: 1. Distraction (anyone talking about the Epstein files and DOJ thumbing their noses at Congress, the courts, and the MAGA base? Nope.); 2. Chipping away at the rule of law and the US’ reputation for justice and democracy (it has been proven that is over and not hypothetical); 3. Intimidation and use of force without any checks on power (dissuades dissent and opens the door to others to expect irrational and violent action at anytime); and probably not lastly 4. Proof that “flooding the zone” works. I could keep going but my point is that we are seeing, in real time now, what (as just one example) decent people living in Germany in the 1930s saw unfolding in slow motion over years. Only what took years back then happens now in weeks. I anticipate more of this to come, with unfortunately increased insanity as there doesn’t seem to be any power internally or externally that can stop these people. They have no boundaries or decency. I think people need to acknowledge what is truly, foundational, going on in a big picture way and start calling things the way it is, not with heads in the sand. Before it’s too late.
Jeff, thanks for such an interesting take on things. I just read “The Oppermanns” and from the point of view of people on the street in Berlin, the Nazi take-over and consolidation happened in a very short time, like weeks. Certainly, Mein Kampf and so forth, shows that they had planned for years and that some things moved slowly. But most people were in denial (like in today’s USA) and the Nazis just scythed through and it was all over in a matter of weeks. Obviously, we have the same thing here, forty years or more of the fascists setting up institutes, and getting the media they needed, and getting the funding (that wasn’t hard!) and getting to know each other, and now with Project 2025 being public, there are no surprises, but the fascists have moved quite slowly compared to what happened when Hitler became chancellor. Very interesting. I hope everyone reading here will be out on the streets this weekend. Demonstrations are planned everywhere — please find one and get out there, with a flag or a sign. Thanks!
Dear Elisabeth, dear Jeff,
Little fact that might help you understand the speed of the nazi take-over.
I skip the pre history and start at the installation of the Austrian corporal as defacto leader of Germany.
30 JAN 1933 - The Austrian corporal is 'installed' as Reichskanzler
28 FEB 1933 - Reichstag fire and the next day limitation of the civil rights of Germans due to an "emergency" (the Reichstag fire)
3 MAR 1933 - new election that the nazi's hope to win
The nazi's "only" get 43% of the vote but with the help of the social-democrats and the christian parties they can rule as if alone.
23 MAR 1933 - democracy is cancelled, the Austrian corporal is dictator. The nazi party is the only political party allowed.
Side fact: the Dachau kamp was opened "for business" on 22 MAR 1933
So 7 weeks from installation as Reichskanzler to full dictatorship.
Yes there was time between the bierkellerputch in Münich (1923) and the installation as Reichskanzler (1933). But the actual road to dictatorship is really short and quick.
Wow, that really puts a point on it. Sense of urgency and all of that. And the Nazis didn’t even have social media and Fox News to help them so now what?
Actually, they had radio, and an extensive press. And they had Josef Goebbels, who definitely understood how to run a propaganda operation. They had the 1930s equivalents of what you think they lacked.
What now? When there is a protest near you, show up and protest. Numbers mater. Also, maybe someone that knows you will see you at the protest on the news and think, oh Sam is protesting, I guess I should protest too. Numbers matter.
We TRY to use social media and whatever is left of legacy media, along with growing independent media to counter what's going on. Hoping.
Besides what is left of media, we still have the threat of elections. I think as Trump's dementia gets worse by the day and he is able to focus less and less, Republicans in Congress are feeling and starting to respond to election pressures! We also should note that the American People have been woken up more and more by each instance of Cruelty the Administration subjects us to. Each succeeding succeeding election held shows a greater and greater swing to the left or democrats. Tuesday in Virginia, the election for a State Senate Seat was won by the Democrat 69% to 30% with 95% of the vote in. I don't remember the exact partial percentage points. Every time these elections happen which is at least monthly more Republicans join Democrats in Congress to rebuff The worst of Administration Madness! This makes more and more districts swing districts even with redistricting. It finally has reached the Administration that they are in no way going to win the Midterms with Dementia Donny stating his worry out loud and threatening to cancel the Midterms. If he does, but is ruled by the courts that cancelling the Midterms is illegal, he loses the legal right to be able to legally claim that the Congressional Authority to Vote for War is valid. Then we can use that legal ground to take away his legal rights as Commander in Chief. I think the Military Brass would still respect court orders on his rights to Command. We can hope! The Fascists behind having Trump be the President have no popular viable politician to replace him or they would have done it by now with the 25th Amendment.They are running out of Time too! They can't even keep Dementia Don on track for even a oil conference lasting a few hours. How do the Fascist Regime hang on to power even for several more months to Completely throw the Constitution out the window and declare Democracy Done? That is the scarry part as we the opposition tiptoe through this minefield to the other side. Only then can we start rebuilding our Country back to full Democracy and after that try to rebuild some stability to World Order, another future minefield! Won't happen in my lifetime but I have great grandchildren for that!
The Social Democrats voted against the Enabling Act.
Hi Edmund, my mistake. I meant the liberals (the "National Party")
Hitler was a Lance Corporal equavelant(sp?) to a Private First Class. The German officers did not think that he had leadership qualities
Well, wtf did they know?
What would have stopped Hitler, back in 1933? I'm wondering if we can use that set of scenarios like a wind tunnel of sorts... I'm sure that if both Congress and SCOTUS wanted MAGA stopped, MAGA would be stopped. But I'm now thinking even if Congress halted funding, SCOTUS might overturn the legislation. I'm way outta my depth with this, but I haven't seen a credible theory for how this gets de-escalated... If the US is no better than Venezuela, and no better than Germany in 1933, it's going to take outside powers to get this stopped. Can that possibly be true? I am not prepared to think in these terms. 😱???
Are Newsom, Pritzker, & the governors of Oregon & Minnesota doing that now?
I’m glad I’m not the only one seeing this. Demonstrations will have little effect against an administration that has no boundaries against rule of law violations. Most supporters of this lawless administration only listen to propaganda on the conservative news outlets, posts, and blogs and podcasts. They truthfully don’t even know the truth of what happened to Renee. Why not? I would like to start up an idea that this can be reversed. It is imperative that the Democrats reverse this because only they have the resources financially to do this. There is a way. Nobody’s discussing it. I don’t know why, it’s a no-brainer. The Democrats have had hundreds of millions of dollars at their disposal. What do they use it for? They feed it to campaign consultants, media entities, etc. it’s useless. It’s always preaching to the choir. These massive resources should be getting used immediately to fund strike force type communication efforts to deprogram the brainwashed and willfully misinformed. The MAGAs are well ahead of this game already. Proof? Consider the fact that immediately after Renee was shot administration leadership had assembled ,promoted, posted and published a false narrative that was immediately picked up and parroted by conservative news media. And that is the only thing your MAGA neighbors is listening to. They must be told the truth. They must. Some people say that those outlets would never allow such to targeted and focused advertising to be shown on their networks. I thoroughly disagree. Money is money. That’s all they care about. Do you think Rupert Murdoch really gives a shit about Donald Trump. He’s already said he doesn’t. He just likes the money that his audience brings him. If you agree, spread this idea in all your forums. I don’t think we have a lot of time. Anybody talking about the Epstein files anymore? Nope. Not after Venezuela. Is anybody talking about Venezuela now. Nope. Not after Renee was shot. It’s only going to get worse.
Jeff, thanks for this analysis. What a great idea, to buy ad time on Fox. How I wish the DNC were listening. They are as bad as the Trumpies in some ways. They are just talking inside their bubble. The only thing I disagree on in your note is demonstrating. It has many effects outside of convincing an administration that isn’t listening. Probably the main thing is letting people see that they aren’t alone. That is one thing that reading “The Oppermanns” brought home to me. The Jews and intellectuals and so forth didn’t know what was going to happen, and by the time they realized, it was too late. They were already fragmented and alone. We have their unfortunate example to refer to, and we can realize that we are not alone and that there are more every day.
Several organizations have done this; the "Save America Movement" is one.
I don't follow Fox or Tucker what's-his-face...is anything going on on those outfits?
I avoid them myself.
I believe that demonstrations will not deter the trump coterie or the disillusioned followers but they show the power and displeasure of the world we are living in as with so much of human nature seeing your neighbors and friends--people that you admire or consider smart--out on the street to protest may make a significant number of those MAGAS reconsider their positions. With that may come our own "regime change" and while I agree we can probably never be what we once were, we can reclaim the good and get rid of the bad elements in our government. Am I too much of an optimist?
I guess I should clarify that I’m not saying people should not demonstrate. I’m just saying I don’t see it doing much good. The reason is that what will show on Fox News are isolated incidents or manufactured instances that show that these are far right antifa people creating problems. They are the enemy, blah blah blah. So the magnets don’t see people protesting out of anything. Other than the fact they think they’re the enemy to be fought and I am afraid many of them celebrate violent actions like what happened to René this week. I also believe that the Maga administration wants to get people out protesting because there is more potential now for further incidents that will solidify the Maga base because of the way they will be portrayed on Fox/NM/AON. These people are much more clever than Democrats. They have a long game. Project 2025 was published. They weren’t afraid to do that but what they didn’t tell you is what was under the covers of that. They don’t talk about it out loud they talk about behind closed doors.
I think one of the biggest problems is that a lot of us assumed they would play mostly by the rules and obey the law and some norms. In Trump 1 he pushed the boundaries but didn't cross many and I sort of expected the same in Trump 2. Project 2025 was a possibility but not with all those checks and balances and assuming they follow the law. Particularly with impoundments the law has no teeth that I can tell.
It is said that the Constitution is not a suicide pact. Increasingly, it looks as if it is. The Trump-MAGA-Republicans think that there are only a small coterie of white, wealthy, male, crypto-christians deserving of holding power. Accordingly, they are willing to tell any lie, spread disinformation constantly and thickly, cheat, and break or ignore any rule or norm, and ignore any sense of comity and fair play--the fabric the holds the political process together. Some examples: McConnell denies Obama advise and consent on his Supreme Court nominee for a specious reason which he later flips on its head to push through Trump's nominee when the same circumstances exist; Mike Johnson keeps the House out of session for 45 days to prevent swearing in an elected Democrat Congresswoman; Trump impounds funds intended for Blues states and for Purple states who have the temerity to elect Democrats; DoJ ignoring court orders and newly enacted legislation that has passed both Houses of Congress almost unanimously.
So, is it possible to pull a Michelle Obama and take the high road when the MAGAt Regime is not bound by any rules at all? Protests are good; education is good, too; but American voter people don't seem to relish becoming educated unless the teacher is cancelling their rights or identity, or trying to steal their lunch money.
We need strikes, economic boycotts, millions of marchers bringing government agencies in D.C. and around the nation to a stand still.
We may even need armed public safety committees to protect our towns and neighborhoods. When the authoritarian regime controls the entire system of law and accountability, the military, and a masked, belligerent, armed and incognito police force loyal only to a mad king, fine words and thoughtfully honed legal briefs are not going to save us.
Far let (not right) Antifa. Shouldn’t use dictate lol.
Fellow Jeff, I have a tiny bit of hope some of the MAGA believers might see the truth. The videos of the ICE shooting show the obvious. The regime accounting that she was mowing down ICE and the vilification of Good is an demonstratable lie. And if you were a believer and see an obvious lie about this, then maybe you start questioning that they are lying about everything else. Not everyone, but start picking off some who still have a functioning brain left.
I was over at Bari Weiss’s Free Press this afternoon on an article about legal matters regarding the Renee Good killing. The readers are very MAGA.
Every single comment was some variant of “It’s all her fault, she FAFOed. Tough luck.”
I’ve cancelled my subscription.
Frau's right....all of these conservatives think she had it coming if you read comments to various substack & social media commentary on the topic. The neanderthals have been brainwashed. It's going to take violence to give them an attitude adjustment.
this post is SO important--and I never hear this critique elsewhere, save the general astonishment of "where are the Democrats?" What in the WORLD do the Dems and their funding entities do with all the hundreds of millions they raise? Wykoff is right: they use it in the most uncreative and non-tactical ways to preach to the choir. It is absolutely incredible to me that, beginning with the barrage of outrageous executive orders in the first few weeks of the 2nd Trump term, and continuing through the disastrous and extremely unpopular period of Musk's manhandling of DOGE....that the Dems put NO ADS on TV, basically did nothing while there was so much hay to be made. This inaction and lack of creativity continues to this day. We should be seeing, for example, stuff on TV, 30-second spots, about the ending of health care tax subsidies, the increase in healthcare prices, and such boondoggles as the Venezuela adventure. Trump is doing incredibly unpopular things and saying the most preposterous things that only injure and weaken the nation ("I don't need international law"! ie, we need no allies) etc etc. Where have the Dem ads showing Stephen Miller foaming at the mouth been? what in the world are the Dems doing--who is in charge of their public outreach? The Krugman column we are responding to here in itself supplies material for 10 effective commercials, which should be visible every night alongside the very creepy Christie Noem warnings to immigrants to self-deport or be shipped to jails in Sudan. Where are the Democrats???? this makes me more upset than my upset over Trump's actions--which we understand al too well and cannot shock us any longer.
What would have stopped Hitler, back in 1933? I'm wondering if we can use that set of scenarios like a wind tunnel of sorts... I'm sure that if both Congress and SCOTUS wanted MAGA stopped, MAGA would be stopped. But I'm now thinking even if Congress halted funding, SCOTUS might overturn the legislation. I'm way outta my depth with this, but I haven't seen a credible theory for how this gets de-escalated... If the US is no better than Venezuela, and no better than Germany in 1933, it's going to take outside powers to get this stopped. Can that possibly be true? I am not prepared to think in these terms. 😱???
Halted funding for what?
I can’t answer your question but I do think Epstein is not being forgotten.
Amen! Let's get our heads on straight, grow some, and kick ass! Mark williams
We absolutely need to do both: demonstrate and try to ‘steer’ the right-wing media. Much better use of that money to get the truth out to right wing. Also, demonstration must be completely peaceful otherwise it will boomerang.
Yes, our demonstrations must be peaceful, but be prepared for the fact that Fox will show videos of violent riots (in other countries if necessary) and claim that's us. They recently showed hundreds of people celebrating Maduro's kidnapping and claimed they were filmed in Venezuela. The backgrounds proved that they were filmed in Florida.
The right wing media is making good money. Fox is the most watched channel on TV.
They won’t be stopped easily.
The Goddamned demonstrations don't do jack shit other than provide news filler. I read that Europe's diplomats are trying to work with US congress people to dissuade the current administration from "doing it the hard way" of invading Greenland & taking it. Let's just cut to the Goddamned mofo chase and say our current president and most of the Epstein class have compromat on them and are doing Russia & Israel's bidding with a cut of the deal in it for them...just like cartel's "silver or lead" capture of their government. The person who shot Renee Good was well-trained and a mid-eastern war vet and by viewing the videos on Noah Smith?s Substack site, it would be fair to believe that most of the military will follow the current regime's orders. How are we going to take this regime out before they start WW 3?
My sympathies, leave my name off. I share your frustration. Demonstrations, however, have more than one effect, and the main one I depend on is helping opposition members nurture community and see that they are not alone. If combined with pressure on Congresspeople and state governments, they show that the opposition is organized and growing. Also they increase the ability of the opposition to monitor what is going on. If we didn’t have multipositional videos of the murder of Ms. Good, it could have happened in silence and unopposed. This is one thing I gleaned from reading “The Oppermanns.” As the Nazis came into power, they immediately began separating and beating/imprisoning/killing people they thought might form an opposition. If the opposition in the US were not present, the orcs could also do that here. So anyway, demonstrations are not the only thing we need to do, but they are important and effective in their own way.
The MSM has, for the most part, congratulated our military for abducting the Madura's. Thankfully the AP has put together this overview of those killed or wounded in the abduction.
"At least 24 Venezuelan security officers were killed in the U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s military announced Monday, bringing the official death count up to at least 56 people.
According to the Pentagon, seven U.S. servicemembers were injured in Saturday’s raid in Caracas, and the injuries included gunshot wounds and shrapnel-related injuries, a U.S. official told The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation. Of the servicemembers, five have already returned to duty while two are still recovering.
In addition to the 24 Venezuelan security officers, 32 Cuban military and police officers working in Venezuela were also killed, according to Cuba’s government, prompting two days of mourning on the Caribbean island.
More civilians in Venezuela were killed in the strikes, AP reporting shows, but it wasn’t immediately clear how many."
Apparently, human life means nothing to the MSM and the Trump administration. The administration is a Fascist administration -- top to bottom and the MSM, including The NY Times, WAPO, CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC and many others are all Trump apologists.
Cuba and Venezuela are allies. Until the blockade, Venezuela sold a fair amount of oil to Cuba.
The Cubans were definitely helping the Maduro regime maintain control. They’re probably still there.
Quit being an apologist for thugs. I visited Cuba when Obama was in office and if we're so fucking free, why weren't we allowed and now aren't allowed to visit Cuba when Europeans and Canadians do?
yup. Distraction and Epstein certainly explain a lot.
That and the need to be - and seen as - the most powerful man in the world.
A large, general strike in the US may be a way to give the Trump admin pause. I'm not sure what they'd do 50 million Americans simply sat down, at home, peacefully on strike.
I was with you until you said that nothing can stop them. The American people can and, I surely hope, in the midterms will.
This TV game show host knows how to build enough tension within the narrative to keep the viewers tuned in to the latest & greatest distraction. Plus Little Marco wants to get a toe hold in Venezuela to increase the likelihood of overtaking Castro in Cuba.
It’s very much like Cheney & Rumsfeld’s attempt to sweep into Iraq when their real target was Iran. Unfortunately, dismantling Iraq turned out to be way more difficult than they anticipated.
I just want to throw out the kind of alley-way grift corruption pattern swirling in the cosmos of my brain trying to stick together without any glue. I keep asking and trying to put a mechanical structure together from the following loose strands on where the Venezuela profit could deliver benefits (beyond the distraction from Epstein).
What about the Trump family crypto investments and the statements Trump has made recently on controlling the Venezuelan revenues? Plus a recent news note that Trump is going to bring Crypto formally into the banking system. I pile this on top of the fact that crypto remains a shadowy cash system for moving illicit goods. Then jumping over to the Trump boys interest and holdings in crypto makes me speculate how these revenues will actually flow should the big oil companies walk away from this deal. Then on the final far side of things there is reported experience Rubio's youthful family background touched up against (I read he worked shortly for his brother in-law a cocaine dealer). And I don't quit there as there is the odd cog of the Honduran Hernandez pardon.
I think Trump is truly dreaming of oil riches. He’s completely unrealistic but that’s the way he is.
NOT everything is a 'distraction from the Epstein Files'.
This administration is a wrecking crew demolishing everything they can get their hands on to smash the United States to rule in the rubble.
I do not disagree with a single thing you said, however I do not see how a teetering democracy like ours could ever establish a stable democracy somewhere else. We aren’t even doing it here.
I don't bother reading your entire comments any more - the first sentence or two is enough. But I would tell you that being an apologist for Nazis is a bad look. Or, if you object to that term, being an apologist for authoritarian murderers (and not just of Good), who are destroying the rule of law in front of our eyes, is not a good look.
Take the trouble to read his whole post, Rena; it’s a thoughtful, considered suggestion.
Oh, dear. He shot once through the windshield, driver’s side. Then twice more through her open driver’s side window.
Recent video from the shooter’s cell phone camera shows that Renee Good had the temerity to pleasantly say “I’m not mad at you.”
The other woman in the scene pointed out that he got the car’s license plate. She told him to leave and “go get lunch.” She could not be accused of trying to run him over, as she was on foot.
Why don't you go sign up for ICE since you're its biggest cheerleader?
Now might be a good time to mention that the One Big Bill allocated $170 Billion to the Dept. of Homeland Security for immigration and border enforcement. Compare this to the $83 Billion UK budget for defense against foreign enemies., or France’s $74 Billion. (We have a separate Dept. of War budget, which Trump wants to reach $1.5 Trillion.)
Lucian Truscott IV discusses this $170 Billion for domestic use as Trump’s “Dictator Budget.” https://open.substack.com/pub/luciantruscott/p/donald-trumps-dictator-budget?
We don't need or want laws restricting peaceful protest. The first amendment clearly states that.
Holding signs & protesting doesn't amount to shit. Some organized outfit is going to have to come in and do to Trump what he did to Maduro. Unfortunately, I'm not an insider; if I was, he'd be gone.
Texas Congressman Wesley Hunt put it this way. “The bottom line is this: When a federal officer gives you instructions, you abide by them and then you get to keep your life.”
And Then You Get to Keep Your Life.
That probably sounded better in the original Russian.
The problem is that too many idiots have badges and guns and tempers and the belief they will be exonerated if they shoot someone.
Excuse me! It’s Trump who keeps bringing up oil, not commenters. Listen to his Saturday press conference.
A successful democratic Iran, Cuba, Congo, etc.......would have been a real win-win if the Dulles brothers backed by US corporate interests wouldn't have put the screws to that.
I don’t think MAGA wants a democratic Venezuelan. They probably think rightfully that weak authoritarian regimes are easier to control. A successful democracy is a threat. MAGA has shunned pretty much all the western style democracies. Look what’s happening in the USA.
Is this self-destruction deliberate? Who would profit from the weakening of the U.S.? Who is a good friend of Donald Trump?
I hate to be nitpicky on this brilliant question, but DJT has no friends. Only someone whose approval he desperately craves, and it isn't DJT's wife.
It's Putin. He craves Putin's approval.
Spam bot reported.
It’s more about whose approval he desires. Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, interviewed several years ago, spoke about Trump’s behavior around Putin at an international conference. He said that Trump acted like a young junior varsity athlete around a varsity star. He followed him around, hero-worshiping, waiting for crumbs of attention. I seem to recall that he found it creepy.
Trump is his own best friend. When not attacking women or his sons, his other primary focus of his criminal activity has been embezzling from his own businesses to such a clumsily rapacious degree that he bankrupts them, and moves on...note he likes to say that all the tariff and hijacked oil money will Be Controlled by Him. He seeks worshipers.
“Back to the U.S. role in the world: can the U.S. ever get back to where it was?”
Sure it can. And that’s the sad part: Europe mostly just waits for it. Right now, it’s basically trying to make it to the U.S. midterms, hoping things will change—and that things won’t go to shit too badly before then.
Cheers from Germany! Thanks Paul and Philips for the great discussion.
I read the NYT article about Svalbard (is that correct sp?) today. The EU needs to act all bully like Trump and state and activate that they are moving their ice breaker ships, Nordic-trained military (our's is sub-par compared to their's) there to counter all threats to NATO, which includes US as member. Let the mofo come up with some bs propaganda to counter that.
That’s how it is in Canada, too.
Is this self-destruction idiotic rather than deliberate? Who can say, since they would look so similar.
I don't think there's any question that Trump's an idiot, and always has been. The problem is that he's an idiot who was born with $ who's also a psychopath/malignant narcissist/pathological liar. Bad, bad combo.
I vote idiot.
I don’t think for a minute that Trump thinks he’s weakening the US. He’s not very bright and may be getting dementia.
He keeps talking about how wonderful everything is. He is in a dream world.
He's on team Putin and could care less about the US after he loots it through Bessent, Nutlick, Witkoff, etc.
Trump seems to be convinced that if he can personally act abusively, and won't be immediately stopped, that he must be important. His ego is so frail, that he needs that, and praise from others he trusts (like Putin).
So yes, this destruction is deliberate.
Aided by the syncophants around him.
Unfortunately the collateral damage seriously harms the country, and the rest of the world.
Which is why the democratic world is starting to wake up.
Japan has stated they with defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression (if the US doesn't). Canada and western and central Europe are stepping up for Ukraine, to replace former US support.
When the US wakes up, they will find a very different world. The US will no longer be the king created by destructive European wars.
The question is now which of Europe, China, or India will become, in time, the new dominant power.
Why didn't we think of that!? We'll get right to it first thing tomorrow.
Shoo-in, unless you're in a kicking mood, which Drumpf can put anyone in...
It does resemble a hopelessly outdated, antiquated document.
I remember when Bush referred to it as “a goddamn piece of paper.”
Nuf sed
I encourage anyone interested in a deep dive into the Constitution to to read (or do as I did and listen to the audio version) Professor Jill Lepore’s book We the People: The History of the U.S. Constitution. After learning so much more about the Constitution than I knew before, I couldn’t call it “a piece of paper,” but I am now equally convinced that the framers never viewed their work as a masterpiece that should remain forever unaltered and answering every situation that might arise in the future.
The US constitution has been altered by some very bad suppreme court decisions that were clearly against the original principles. Like to right to bear arms in support of a well organized militia evolving to the right to bear arms to terrorize the neighbourhood.
Almost like preparing for a Trump in power.
Another failed-up offspring...how many before this country is truly toast? On another note, a fellow alum (not me) of Williams College told me today that Reza Pahlavi jr flunked out. Pahlavi claims that he should be Iran's hereditary ruler if its current government is toppled.
Hello fellow Canadian. The US constitution hasn’t been altered since 1992. It’s extremely hard to change because of polarized politics.
And at times like this, with a crime family in charge, you really don’t want them messing with changing the constitution.
A few months back a billionaire donor to Trump bought the three Citgo refineries in Louisiana that had been used to process Venezuelan crude. Follow the oil, follow the money.
We now have a fascist government that uses fascist tactics but, unlike Hitler, is not really interested in running foreign countries. They just want the money that can be squeezed out of it. I don't know what you call a fascist government that is primarily interested in the personal wealth to be gained. Trump is also using it to evade criminal accountability.
Heather Cox Richardson posted a WWII pamphlet produced by the War Department of that time. Here's an excerpt. "Fascism is government by the few and for the few. The objective is seizure and control of the economic, political, social, and cultural life of the state.” “The people run democratic governments, but fascist governments run the people.”
“The basic principles of democracy stand in the way of their desires; hence—democracy must go! Anyone who is not a member of their inner gang has to do what he’s told. They permit no civil liberties, no equality before the law. .... Fascism treats women as mere breeders. ‘Children, kitchen, and the church,’ was the Nazi slogan for women."
"Fascists make their own rules and change them when they choose…. They maintain themselves in power by use of force combined with propaganda based on primitive ideas of ‘blood’ and ‘race,’ by skillful manipulation of fear and hate, and by false promise of security. The propaganda glorifies war and insists it is smart and ‘realistic’ to be pitiless and violent.”
Fascists understand that “the fundamental principle of democracy—faith in the common sense of the common people—is the direct opposite of the fascist principle of rule by the elite few,” the pamphlet explained, “[s]o they fought democracy…. They played political, religious, social, and economic groups against each other and seized power while these groups struggled.”
That's what's been going on here for a while now.
I think the billionaire was as Paul Singer.
I’d venture to guess you could call it an autocratic oligarchy, but the name matters less than the deeds themselves. Giving a name to it is window dressing. Fascism is but one form of autocratic rule. I try to stay focused on the acts and intents of this regime; they’re frightening enough.
Actually a really good name makes a huge difference to public response.
Great conversation.
Minor comment. I read the transcript at a public space. The automated transcription struggles with people’s names, i.e. Mark and Jason instead of Marc Andreesen.
Thanks. I read the transcript and didn’t know who those were.
Thanks - I was wondering who Mark and Jason were!
Wonderful conversation. So many tidbits of depressing information. The assessment of how the US makes war is especially apt. And re Venezuela, well we have engaged in performance art but nothing changed except that we have weakened the Democratic opposition.
Agreed. Trump is upending the very rules-based world order that America itself created. He is looking to carve up the world into spheres of influence, regressing Latin America foreign policy into an era of banana republics. I wrote about it here:
https://kainesianmacro.substack.com/p/the-banana-republics-are-back-in
i will read. thanks.
Performance is in Trump's toolbox, for sure.
Not intended to advertise by any means but coincidentally I'm reading Mr. O'Brien's new book "War and Power, Who Wins Wars - and Why" at the moment. It's a nice starting point if you want to understand power beyond counting tanks and rockets. And why it is a fatal flaw to believe that kidnapping one dictator shows 'real' power.
Paul Singer is buying Citgo refineries that need the Venezuela heavy crude. trump is securing the oil for Singer's refineries. The 50 million barrels that he was bragging about will be going directly to his refineries.
As in Paul Singer the man wrecking Southworst Airlines? Shock me.
He is the vulture capitalist who runs Elliott Investment Management. They do own 54 million shares of Southwest Airlines. They forced the airline to name six new directors to its board, and its Chairman Gary Kelly retired several months earlier than expected. When Elliott takes an interest in your company it is bad news.
Yep, I have written about the whole thing, including Southworst's two rounds of cave-ins even after having adopted a poison pill. The second cave-in, especially, is disgusting because a company sponsored research survey said that they would lose more money from passenger loss if they ended bags fly free than the money they'd make from bag fees.
And, it happened here. Most recent trip, I flew the AA out of DFW, not Southworst out of Love.
Paul talks about “seizing.”
We should just say “stealing.”
Why sanitize it?
Seizing implies more brute force in the victims' faces. Hence Drumpf's affinity for the term.
I wonder if DT likes the word “seize” because it’s more sanitized?
Sort of obfuscates the truth. Just a guess.
Stealing is truly more accurate.
You can steal from others without otherwise harming them. When you seize their property, you are threatening and bullying them at very least.
They’re interchangeable…
But “stealing” paints a more accurate picture: taking something from someone that doesn’t belong to him.
“Seize” sort of legitimizes the action, like they had some kind of legal authority or justification.
Just my thoughts…
Have a nice weekend.
🦋
There's nothing sanitary about seizures.
It's both. Seize influence over the government and then steal the oil.
Trump is not a real president he plays one on TV.
It appears that the pictures of Obama in the situation room, during the killing of Osama Bin Laden, was what he really aimed for with the attack on Venezuela. Those visuals look so presidential, and manly, and in charge - so Trump wanted an equivalent with him in the picture.
But he was too lazy and his people too incompetent to actually pull it off.
Précisément!
Just a note: You can't pump Venezuelan oil in its natural state. Most of it is tar sands. It has to be mined and then heavily processed before it becomes heavy crude and can be put in pipelines, train cars or tankers. Then it has to go to refineries specifically built for it. If anyone wants to see how it's done, look to the Canadian oil industry, which is based on the tar sands of Northern Alberta. You might also want to note the massive amount of pollution and greenhouse gases produced.
Excellent insights….albeit depressing. I’ve always sensed that Putin has something on Trump and I still think it’s true. The Epstein files certainly has Trump terrified. The real question (again depressing) is what are the MAGA/GOP going to do? The Dems have tried to impeach Trump twice. And they aren’t willing to do anything “non rules based”, so there is a dependency on Trump supporters to turn against this. Unless the stock market crashes, will he lose supporters and money? We all seem stalled and watching this spiral downward.
I am glad I’m in my 80’s and not in my 40’s. 😶
As Kyle Rysdahl of the "Marketplace" program has said hundreds of times, "The stock market is not the economy." I doubt that Trump keeps his ill-gotten gains in the market, so he probably won't lose there, and if the tariff waffling didn't cost him support amongst the CEO's nothing will. Supposedly, his popularity is steadily declining and is the lowest of any President since we've been keeping track, but I, for one, don't trust polls any more.
As we used to say in the construction world, "feces floats." Or words to that effect.
A sobering early morning read. Thanks Paul
Two points: first, Trump's trashing the rules-based international order has left the world a much, much more dangerous place. Rules, even imperfect rules, lead to predictability. If this, then that. We now have a nation that once acted as the world's keel run by a petulant imbecile. Predictability has vanished and when predictability is gone it is replaced by guesswork - and one bad guess can lead to a cascade of horror.
Second, and this is one of the great truths that few seem to grasp, actions matter, words don't. Politicians lie, nearly reflexively. But the Trump administration has unleashed torrents of lies, lies at industrial scale. And yet the news media dutifully reports every utterance, rarely demanding evidence supporting the lies. If you want to know what is going on in Trumpland watch what they actually do and ignore what they say they are doing.
It is an ouroboros of mutual self-defeat. Readers want to be titillated or have their biases confirmed. Editors give them what they want and wonder why the mainstream media is mistrusted.
It’s a good day to show up
https://www.mobilize.us/indivisible/?show_all_events=true&tag_ids=29124
we're going to a local anti-ICE protest tomorrow
Sunday in NYC: 58th Street/5th Avenue 1 pm.
Moved to 60th St/5th because of rapidly growing support
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/883547/
Contrary to popular belief, narcissists often do worship individuals who represent ultimate power. We often see Trump come at people with this extreme performative aggression. The ones who respond through sycophantism enjoy crumbs from his table, but they don’t last long. Once someone is willing to defy Trump to his face, Trump will retreat completely and raise that person to a pedestal. It probably has to be a man (women represent empathy qua weakness to him) and probably someone who responds to Trump not with anger or defense but apathy. Mamdani, Xi, Putin…these people openly treat Trump as if he’s irrelevant. Trump must subconsciously save his wounded ego “they must not see me as important because they are so powerful.” Also he hides his fear and cowardice by trying to become their best friend. A lot of people fight Trump. That doesn’t work. It’s the ones that obviously don’t take him seriously that become his new boss.
"There’s a real question about what actually happened. This was suspiciously easy." At this point, it might be proper to note than dozens of actual people were killed in addition to the 100s on the boats leading up to this. What was all the scattered bombings about? Magician's distraction trick?
I'm surprised more hasn't been made of the murder of Venezuelans and Cubans.
I think it would be very difficult to get accurate reporting on this.
As the piece noted, civilians were also killed, though we don't know how many. And I'm almost willing to bet that of those killed whom you mention, none were as thuggish as the current American president.
So the Cuban Missile Crisis is the new rationale du jour? How did we somehow get to Cold War hysteria over a Latin American petty despot presiding over a country so troubled that a quarter of its population has already left?
Treasonous