trump wants any war that will allow him (in his lawless mind) to indefinitely postpone the midterms, as that is his personal existential threat. And personal is all that matters to him. Which also suggests that he expects to live a few more years.
And you don’t have to go back 85 years to Stalin for comparison. Putin is exactly the same and Trump loves him.
Dear Paul and Brian, Dear Americans, I as European appreciate your sober analysis and foresight. I as European largely agree. This war will permanently damage American acceptance and dominance on this planet. All Europeans are extremely pissed off at Trump and no less at his enablers. Even if European politicians aren't allowed to express their views clearly in public, the frustration with Trump is endless. Without a plan and, above all, without any necessity, he's bringing the whole world to the brink of catastrophe. And he's been trying since January 2025. His deranged mind is based on the principle of "let's see what happens" and the fact that he's an old fart and his end is near. We Europeans are trapped in our own stupidity. Since Trump, we've realized that we were never truly partners of the USA, but rather useful idiots and accomplices, occupied by their military bases. We've been supporting the USA's global power strategy, especially in the Middle East. This was all to obtain a foolish, purely theoretical security guarantee against the Russian bear after World War II. Now, Europe is being torn apart by American tech billionaires and the current American government, through election manipulation and far-right wing parties, and cut off from the world's energy supply thanks to Trump's idiocy. This is all so that, as slaves to the American elite, they can continue to concentrate wealth in America's top 0.0001%. Thanks, MAGA, for nothing, for your arrogance, your hubris, and your utter lack of empathy for everyone else in this world! How can the richest country in the world, the most wasteful country in the world, which owes its prosperity to the destruction of the environment and a healthy climate, and to the hunger of the rest of the world, believe that it has been exploited by everyone else? Yes, I know, the MAGAs aren't reading this; they'd be too stupid to understand it anyway!
Trump's MAGA base didn't want this war, they know it's wrong and were lied to. Yet polls show they are lining up like lemmings in a cult to drink more Trump Kool Aid.
Trump promised his base the days of being the world's Top Cop, regime change wars and unnecessary foreign adventures were over. Let's put it this way: his supporters and all of us have been wronged and will pay the price with higher inflation.
If that were the only price we were paying, we'd be getting off damned near scott-free. Afraid it's the children and grandchildren that'll end up paying the price, with interest.......
It is a sad psychological fact that when people are taken in by con men there is an inverse relationship between how much they have lost and how likely they are to double down in an effort to regain their losses.
They did have a Plan-A, such as it was: Bomb the hell out of Iran and ordinary (unarmed) Iranians would rise up and overthrow the regime. Riiiight.
Yesterday, Trump finally admitted that's unrealistic since Revolutionary Guards and loyalists would turn their machine guns on them if they tried. Some of us said exactly that before the bombs started falling. Do they even have a Plan-B?
The Plan A was a complete fantasy. The Brits didn’t rise up to overthrow Churchill during the Blitz, the Japanese endured fire bombing until they were nuked, the Viet Cong endured napalm and didn’t quit. There isn’t real evidence that air strikes alone will cause domestic uprisings. The Dumb Egoist Indolent (DEI) white boys the regime hired to replace competent BIPOC and women professionals have never cracked open a history book, so here we are.
The alliances were not completely foolish when they were formed, and might have continued to be mutually beneficial with some adjusting, some increased equality among members. Now, sadly, it isn't just ruthless leaders of large countries but a tiny ruthless class of multi billionaires.
When I say equality among members, I mean not having one country act as if it has greater say in any or all of the issues that arise. Not that all countries have to pay the same. Pay should be according to ability to pay. Such a tiny aside in the midst of it all.
Just before that a lot of students protested. I heard a guy complain that he would die for family and friends, but not to protect corporate investments. I think people are aware of the corporate interests that are taking lives right now.
Also, Ruth Ben Ghiat said that Israeli army is in terrible shape. She says the members of the military are having huge traumatic response to their situation and are no way ready to take on another military action. Meanwhile, Malcolm Nance says he thinks Israel is preparing to attack Lebanon.
I don't think Europeans are stupid. Just naive and reluctant to direct financial resources to military, given the way your continent was devastated by two world wars. I've thought Europe is stronger than they know, but, for some reason, timid. It isn't easy to get people together when there are so many differing cultures interacting in close quarters. I hope you have seen the light. It is best to move away from the US. Even if we get through this, it will be decades before we achieve any semblance of legitimacy to the rest of the world. It was nice knowing you.
It occurred to me, while watching this, of the possibility that Trump will be so humiliated by this utter mess that he’ll distract by releasing the files. Never, right? But how many times have we said, “never”? I do think it’s never, but an intriguing thought nevertheless.
If Trump is capable of feeling "humiliation" he is more likely to declare martial law than anything else. Although if he loses power in the mid-terms he might take the "Hitler option" rather than face the humiliation of being removed from office.
Or just declare martial law in Blue cities, dem-strongholds. While allowing voting to proceed in safely GOP districts. Do that in Dallas & Houston, for example, to ensure Paxton defeats Talarico. Do it in a few tossup districts to flip a few dozen House seats from Blue to Red.
Which imo was the entire point of the ICE + Military offensives in LA, Chicago, Minneapolis. He wanted to provoke massive riots as a pretext for declaring martial law in those areas. These were test cases for operations during both primary season; but especially the GE in November, with the intention of being able to "postpone" elections.
See, now I think he’s constantly running from feeling humiliated. It’s why he’s so good at humiliating others—or not why he’s so good at it, but why he humiliates others, e.g. Rubio’s too big shoes. But yeah, I wonder if he can’t outrun it, if he won’t end up preventing himself from having to face it, a la Hitler-style. He’s really a pitiful creature, as is everyone who’s sucking up to him.
At some point his broken mind will assume the US people will just accept his pedophilia and violence toward women and girls as just 'Trump being Trump' and not care if the files are released.
There was an enormous tumult in MAGA-land last year over the Epstein non-release. Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, Charlie Kirk--and others were seriously outraged at the coverup. Newsmax was openly taunting FOX News for their cowardice to not even cover *anything* Epstein. But then things seemed to quiet down.
My guess is that the Epstein coverup is still simmering, but more back-burner in RW consciousness right now. If Kentucky's Massie loses his upcoming primary race, GOP pols are gonna keep their heads down even further.
There is a particular kind of catastrophe that is worse than the kind produced by malice. Malice, at least, implies a plan. The war the United States is now fighting in Iran — launched on February 28, 2026, under the operationally grandiose name Operation Epic Fury — belongs to the other category.
It is a catastrophe produced by the intersection of two forces that, separately, are manageable, but together become something close to civilisational recklessness: strategic incompetence at the decision-making level, and an ideological contempt for the knowledge —embracing ignorance — that might have prevented the decision from being made.
Malice does not necessarily imply a long-term plan or premeditation, but it always implies an intentional, wrongful state of mind. In legal terms, it means acting with the intent to cause harm, doing something reckless that causes harm, or committing a wrongful act purposely without justification.
It's important to realize that Trump is considerably more ignorant than we typically think. John Bolton was Trump's National Security Advisor and what he says about Trump is telling. Trump does not read policy statements or briefing information. It's too complex for him even when it is watered down and simplified. Trump is not strategic and makes decisions based on feelings and whims. So, we get the on-again off-again approach to decision-making. Because Venezuela went so easily, Trump tacitly assumed Iran would go the same way. Since Trump hired incompetent sycophants (Hegseth is the best example of this), and fired all top level people who would challenge him with sage advice and resist his worst inclinations, we now have the Iran disaster. The only silver lining is that this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back in the midterms later this year and well beyond.
Quoting Phillips O'Brien: "He basically did what megalomaniac leaders do. They underestimate their enemy and they think they will do this quickly. It’s what Putin did to Ukraine in 2022. “We will just march in, we’ll do what we want. We have this great military.” reminds me of a derogatory joke I heard as a 10 year old in the Bronx.
Lidia references Stalin from 85 years back, and, the joke refers to the Russian invasion of Poland back in 1939. The Russians invaded and occupied the eastern part of Poland without firing a shot by marching in backwards, so, the Poles thought the Russians were leaving...
Trump, his Cabinet, the entire Republican Party, and, all those who voted for him, are a long term disease that is, and, will continue to be, extremely painful, before there is a chance of bringing the United States to a semblance of sanity. MAGA has always formed a 30-40% base of the Republican Party since, at least, the 1972 election.
“Krugman: That is a war crime. At least the Israelis have definitely committed war crimes on that front and I’m afraid that the US may be doing it too”.
If war crimes become part of the military agenda — and there nothing restraining trump or Netan-yahoo to do just that — the US is heading toward the tactics of the Wehrmacht and SS during WW II, with neither government having anyone of influence to curtail or even prevent such undertakings. Indeed, the “logic” of this “excursion” virtually points in that direction, as Iranian capitulation remains the objective, as far as any “objective” can be discerned, so we may just see another enhanced level of brutality visited upon the Iranian people, especially if the blood-lust expressed by SecDef Kegsbreath is any guide. Horrible, just bloody awful.
We and the Brits systematically bombed Iragi sewage treatment plants in the years after the first Bush Gulf War. Something like 250,000 Iraqis--mostly kids and the very old--died of diarrheal diseases. War crimes, indeed.
The Israelis have gotten in the habit of bombing hospitals and journalists. And using starvation as a weapon of war. We need J-Street strong enough to put Bibi away for war crimes, and AIPAC out of business.
Probably too early to know. Dollar is not likely to remain strong in our current circumstances. Our misguided sense of the Middle East has not evolved much in the intervening decades.
Remember trump, Zelenskyy, and who has “the cards”, and who doesn’t? Reckon now that Iran has four aces and trump is bluffing whilst holding a pair of deuces. Guess who is indeed “holding all the cards”?
This says so much about how far America has fallen. We have totally lost the ethos that propelled America to greatness a century ago and maintained it as the undisputed (if indisputably flawed) leader of the free world. That leadership made the entire world freer, wealthier, healthier, and happier. But then we choked. A series of Supreme Court rulings led to corporations and the uber rich shaping and dominating the political conversation. China began its rise - in large part fueled by those same corporate interests chasing cheap labor. Middle America started seeing costs rise and opportunities ebb. So they elected a morally bankrupt, grossly incompetent carnival barker president. And here we are in the lap of kleptocracy masquerading as salt of the earth populism. The world has seen this act repeatedly in the past and it always ends the same way: in blood and tears. And the slack-jawed imbecile in the MAGA hat will look around wondering what happened.
Well and accurately put. I was born in 44, graduated from college in 66, came home from Vietnam in 69, retired in 06. All in all I have been lucky but so so sorrowful witnessing the ever steepening decline.
My dad came back from Vietnam in '69, like you, after leading the 1st Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division to Vietnam, twice.
He was profoundly disillusioned, and even planned to give away his medals. I just have to be relieved that he isn't here to see the shocking, inexcusable incompetence and cruelty we are now witnessing.
"And the slack-jawed imbecile in the MAGA hat will look around wondering what happened." And then blame someone else, and keep voting for the same sort of politician.
LBJ: "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
Yep, after Reagan started union busting, oversaw the severe early 80’s recession and rise of the Rust Belt, and rewrote the tax code to favor the wealthy, the working class said “ more please” (Reagan 2, W Bush, and Trump).
I see the turning point for US down this road happened with the murder of JFK probably by the CIA and factions inside the power structure to turn Murika into what it is today....read Jeffrey Sachs on this subject.
Yeah, we weren't perfect but we were strong and respected, even under Reagan and GW to lesser extents, but we didn't worry too much about nuclear threats. So who choked? The Supreme Court. Why?
The voters choked. America choked. There has always been a tension between business interests and broader public interests; a healthy tension I would say. But business interests increasingly bought politicians who would do their bidding and that tension began to slip out of balance. As business interests eclipsed the interests of average Americans the ship of state began to tilt with increasingly partisan justices populating the Supreme Court. From there the tilt became a precipice. Bush v Gore. Trump v US. Citizens United. All of this resulted in increasing shift of wealth to the top few percentiles. And now you see the same interests aggressively buying social media (TikTok) and mainstream media (Paramount, CNN, etc) to further shape the flow of information. The oligarchy has arrived. I doubt it will collapse without some extremely disruptive event.
O'Brian says about Venezuela - "It’s been absolutely brilliant for Trump and God knows where the money’s going and who’s getting kickbacks in these business deals ...."
The US didn't just kidnap the Venezuela president and his wife. They also stole a lot of gold, that's turned up with Trump in the White House. No-one's saying where it's going to end up.
And now we're hearing that they're working some deal with Maduro where he is pressured to "disclose" what he knows about interference in US elections so there's an election interference subplot to come out of this in exchange for leniency for Maduro.
Drones are the 21st century version of guerrilla warfare. No conventional military organisation has ever managed to defeat guerrillas: they just pop back up elsewhere.
This exactly. 1. How would you sneak in? 2. No USA military knows the terrain. 3. They'll be sitting ducks. Those 2500 marines on the way to Iran need to refuse illegal orders.
Another thought on ground troops - Iran’s Rev Guard and militia just recently found themselves able to slaughter 30,000 of their own people. These are incredibly hardened fighters and I fear that US troops won’t stand up to them very well.
Although Iran is quite mountainous (and has some of the best skiing in the world), not all the mountains are tall, and there also are vast, arid plateaus.
But the Marines not knowing the terrain, wherever it is, is an excellent reason not to invade. Another is that Iranians have a long, ancient history of being excellent fighters - and that is not from being "islamic fanatics," as even Paul Krigman the Great has claimed in his fascinating dialogue above. Their Islam is somewhat more similar to our traditional Christianity - kind of the 'default' religion. (Iran has always included communities of Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians, etc. since ancient times.)
It is also crucial to understand that the 47-year Islamic Republic, in its brutality, has alienated many from the religion. On our side, if what I've recently read is true, that our military is now being told to fight the current war in Iran because 'the second coming of Christ will be there," then we are facing a similar risk of fanaticism and disillusion. Shame on us.
I take your point about defeating guerrilla forces. Though I consider the British and Commonwealth forces during the Malaysian Emergency as a conventional military organization.
Thanks for this informative review. I’m sure I speak for Krugman’s audience - it is so important for the American public to have a reliable and accurate assessment like this of the Iran war, because the Trump administration is a font of fables, fog, and phobias.
A lot of the Trump supporters I’ve met appear to be nihilists. They’re often religious fanatics gleefully anticipating Armageddon or depressives too chicken to commit suicide themselves. Perhaps the disinvestment from mental health care systems in the early 1970s has some role in all of this.
I think you may be right about the nihilism aspect. I know a nihilist conservative atheist who thinks our planet will survive global warming. If human civilization doesn’t survive, no great loss.
This was recorded before the bombing of Kharg Island. Ground troops, here we go. Needless to say, every MAGA voter should be signing up and pushing their own kids into the Marines. You voted for this.
I admire Phillips O’Brien, and find him a brilliant analyst with deep expertise. However, like many rational people, he is susceptible to looking for a rationale — even if an evil one — in Trump’s actions. But Trump is, first and foremost, a boundlessly narcissistic chaos agent. So where O’Brien sees basically two options for Trump in the mess he’s made — either declare victory and go home, or enter southern Iran on the ground to reopen the Persian Gulf — I see a third: just keep blowing things up from the air and damn the consequences; apres lui le deluge.
It just occurred to me that, while on the one hand, Trump TACOs in reaction to losing loyalty from his base and/or the bond market reacts, he seems seduced by Putin and Netanyahu even more than he is fearful to of political loss. It’s as if either of them are sirens to him. Both of them are benefiting from this war.
So, I see your point now. One can hope but not predict. The historian Joanne Freeman talks about contingency playing an enormous role in history and has been saying that “we are in a contingency moment.”
It also occurred to me that if he were to declare martial law he may very well discover what sedition looks like.
Rather than "seduced by Putin and Netanyahu," I would say "controlled by" them. Obviously they have something big on him, and there are indications that Epstein's millions of pages of evidence (especially those still not released) were collected and shared by him with Israel - and maybe Russia as well. (Do you wonder why he had cameras everywhere, and kept such volumes of emails, photos, videos, etc.?)
The point about drones being the guerrilla warfare of our time is salient and predictive. Such warfare has conquered larger conventional forces since forever. Amazing how wars repeat their patterns no matter the technology. One constant: human hubris. Might does not make right. Iran has the upper hand.
And all the other depravities, like ICE and CBP assaults on US soil. And those drove reports of assaults on reproductive freedom into oblivion. It’s an onion of distractions, with each layer distracting from another previously unthinkable loss of rights.
Brilliant and clear-headed analysis. Thank you so much, both. The point made at the end about the price of diesel (up +$1.00/gal.) and its potential effect on red-hatted truckers was very important. Red-hatted consumers are driving by scores of gas stations every day with prices that go up even within the same day. May they all come to some sort of crude awakening!
The big point about diesel is that it's not even primarily a road fuel. Jet-A is diesel with a slightly lower oil content. Heating oil is #2 diesel (I lived in a rental with oil heat and that's what was on the receipt). That's why the price is up so much more than gasoline. The demand is much higher.
Racists are already accepting higher prices. LBJ understood why there will be no substantial “awakening”: "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
Agreed and more needs to be said about this “holy war”, “blood as high as a horse’s bridle” etc from the bible to bring about the rapture. The recruiting of radical evangelicals into positions of power in the intelligence and military leadership positions.
Excuse my bluntness, but no. We have had elections through wartime, time and time again. We have never not had them, and we won’t start not having them now.
I've heard that while we are no longer providing monetary aid, we are still supplying intelligence to Ukraine. Does anybody know if the Pentagon is still paying their Starlink bill?
What will Iran do? Phillips has always emphasized the importance of the thinking of the top leader. The leader says he wants revenge. His father was killed. His wife was killed. HIs mother was killed. One of his sons was killed. Many of his close colleagues, we presume, were killed or wounded. He was wounded. What is he thinking now I wonder? (The only thing may restrai him is that the Straits blockade is hurting fellow Muslims in Pakistan etc., so there's that.)
Same for the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, and all the other mostly Sunni Muslim neighbors. But I don't think religion is the main motivating factor here. Spencer points out how many close family members of Mojtaba Khamene'i have just been killed.
The shoes are probably the ultimate showing of why this administration is so incompetent. Trump makes a decision that is clearly idiotic. But it serves the purpose of demonstrating who is obedient to him. He doesn't like anybody who is not, and they all know it. So everybody goes along even though they clearly know it's wrong (size), even as it hurts their feet and reputation.
Whatever Trump says; he wants to hear the words "yes Sir, you are Brilliant Sir, its the most fantastic idea anybody ever had Sir". His narcissistic personality and fragile ego will not allow him to acknowledge that someone else may know more than him - so he cannot ask "advisers" to educate him. They are there to confirm what comes out of Trumps mouth. But they must take full blame for any and all mistakes that Trump makes.
So Trump is governing without competent advice. Even if for some reason a competent person ends up in his White House, that person will have to suppress their knowledge, let the mistakes happen - and then take the blame. Those who are not ready to do so, would either not have taken the job in the first place or soon have to find another job. SAD.
trump wants any war that will allow him (in his lawless mind) to indefinitely postpone the midterms, as that is his personal existential threat. And personal is all that matters to him. Which also suggests that he expects to live a few more years.
And you don’t have to go back 85 years to Stalin for comparison. Putin is exactly the same and Trump loves him.
Dear Paul and Brian, Dear Americans, I as European appreciate your sober analysis and foresight. I as European largely agree. This war will permanently damage American acceptance and dominance on this planet. All Europeans are extremely pissed off at Trump and no less at his enablers. Even if European politicians aren't allowed to express their views clearly in public, the frustration with Trump is endless. Without a plan and, above all, without any necessity, he's bringing the whole world to the brink of catastrophe. And he's been trying since January 2025. His deranged mind is based on the principle of "let's see what happens" and the fact that he's an old fart and his end is near. We Europeans are trapped in our own stupidity. Since Trump, we've realized that we were never truly partners of the USA, but rather useful idiots and accomplices, occupied by their military bases. We've been supporting the USA's global power strategy, especially in the Middle East. This was all to obtain a foolish, purely theoretical security guarantee against the Russian bear after World War II. Now, Europe is being torn apart by American tech billionaires and the current American government, through election manipulation and far-right wing parties, and cut off from the world's energy supply thanks to Trump's idiocy. This is all so that, as slaves to the American elite, they can continue to concentrate wealth in America's top 0.0001%. Thanks, MAGA, for nothing, for your arrogance, your hubris, and your utter lack of empathy for everyone else in this world! How can the richest country in the world, the most wasteful country in the world, which owes its prosperity to the destruction of the environment and a healthy climate, and to the hunger of the rest of the world, believe that it has been exploited by everyone else? Yes, I know, the MAGAs aren't reading this; they'd be too stupid to understand it anyway!
The really terrible thing is that many of the MAGA cult simply cannot read what you have written. Which, at least partly explains why we have them.
Trump's MAGA base didn't want this war, they know it's wrong and were lied to. Yet polls show they are lining up like lemmings in a cult to drink more Trump Kool Aid.
They don't necessarily think it's "wrong." They just don't like the initial economic impact on themselves?
I saw several interviews late last year that all followed the theme of "We'll have to suffer for a while, but we'll be better off in the end."
Trump promised his base the days of being the world's Top Cop, regime change wars and unnecessary foreign adventures were over. Let's put it this way: his supporters and all of us have been wronged and will pay the price with higher inflation.
If that were the only price we were paying, we'd be getting off damned near scott-free. Afraid it's the children and grandchildren that'll end up paying the price, with interest.......
It is a sad psychological fact that when people are taken in by con men there is an inverse relationship between how much they have lost and how likely they are to double down in an effort to regain their losses.
It’s very difficult to admit that you have been played for a fool. By someone whose racist narcissism speaks to your possibly subconscious desires.
Unfortunately they don't need to be able to read to get good paying jobs with ICE.
Too, terribly true.
They did have a Plan-A, such as it was: Bomb the hell out of Iran and ordinary (unarmed) Iranians would rise up and overthrow the regime. Riiiight.
Yesterday, Trump finally admitted that's unrealistic since Revolutionary Guards and loyalists would turn their machine guns on them if they tried. Some of us said exactly that before the bombs started falling. Do they even have a Plan-B?
The Plan A was a complete fantasy. The Brits didn’t rise up to overthrow Churchill during the Blitz, the Japanese endured fire bombing until they were nuked, the Viet Cong endured napalm and didn’t quit. There isn’t real evidence that air strikes alone will cause domestic uprisings. The Dumb Egoist Indolent (DEI) white boys the regime hired to replace competent BIPOC and women professionals have never cracked open a history book, so here we are.
Everything these clowns "know" about history, they learned from John Wayne movies.
Dumb Egoist Indolent (DEI) is perfect, Les.
Krugman asked O'Brien that very question: Have air raids ever been successful? He couldn't come up with an example.
Trouble is, he is not "indolent" but far too actively stupid and crooked.
Given that Trump already betrayed them once and possibly 30,000 were killed by their own goverment, not surprising no one responded the second time.
That isn't a military plan, it is a bad movie plot, or a video game story line.
Even bad movie plots generally have happy endings. This appears extremely unlikely, in this case.
NO! But Iran apparently does. It is not going to be Venezuela, it is going to be more like Afghanistan and Iraq, smaller countries.
This is my piece from an antiwar protest. It is mostly pictures.
https://lindaweide.substack.com/p/i-attended-an-anti-war-rally-in-bremen?r=f0qfn
The alliances were not completely foolish when they were formed, and might have continued to be mutually beneficial with some adjusting, some increased equality among members. Now, sadly, it isn't just ruthless leaders of large countries but a tiny ruthless class of multi billionaires.
When I say equality among members, I mean not having one country act as if it has greater say in any or all of the issues that arise. Not that all countries have to pay the same. Pay should be according to ability to pay. Such a tiny aside in the midst of it all.
Jo, I attended an anti war protest in the German city where I live. I wrote a piece about it which is mostly pictures of signs.
https://lindaweide.substack.com/p/i-attended-an-anti-war-rally-in-bremen?r=f0qfn
Just before that a lot of students protested. I heard a guy complain that he would die for family and friends, but not to protect corporate investments. I think people are aware of the corporate interests that are taking lives right now.
Also, Ruth Ben Ghiat said that Israeli army is in terrible shape. She says the members of the military are having huge traumatic response to their situation and are no way ready to take on another military action. Meanwhile, Malcolm Nance says he thinks Israel is preparing to attack Lebanon.
I don't think Europeans are stupid. Just naive and reluctant to direct financial resources to military, given the way your continent was devastated by two world wars. I've thought Europe is stronger than they know, but, for some reason, timid. It isn't easy to get people together when there are so many differing cultures interacting in close quarters. I hope you have seen the light. It is best to move away from the US. Even if we get through this, it will be decades before we achieve any semblance of legitimacy to the rest of the world. It was nice knowing you.
And postpone Epstein.
It occurred to me, while watching this, of the possibility that Trump will be so humiliated by this utter mess that he’ll distract by releasing the files. Never, right? But how many times have we said, “never”? I do think it’s never, but an intriguing thought nevertheless.
If Trump is capable of feeling "humiliation" he is more likely to declare martial law than anything else. Although if he loses power in the mid-terms he might take the "Hitler option" rather than face the humiliation of being removed from office.
A cornered rat can be dangerous.
Indeed. But rats have a high degree of cunning so they are hard to keep "cornered". Rats also have courage. Trump not so much.
He's probably hoping for an attack on US soil so he can do exactly that: declare martial law to put off the mid-terms.
The United States has always held elections during wartime. We must not allow him to set a precedent.
Or just declare martial law in Blue cities, dem-strongholds. While allowing voting to proceed in safely GOP districts. Do that in Dallas & Houston, for example, to ensure Paxton defeats Talarico. Do it in a few tossup districts to flip a few dozen House seats from Blue to Red.
Which imo was the entire point of the ICE + Military offensives in LA, Chicago, Minneapolis. He wanted to provoke massive riots as a pretext for declaring martial law in those areas. These were test cases for operations during both primary season; but especially the GE in November, with the intention of being able to "postpone" elections.
See, now I think he’s constantly running from feeling humiliated. It’s why he’s so good at humiliating others—or not why he’s so good at it, but why he humiliates others, e.g. Rubio’s too big shoes. But yeah, I wonder if he can’t outrun it, if he won’t end up preventing himself from having to face it, a la Hitler-style. He’s really a pitiful creature, as is everyone who’s sucking up to him.
At some point his broken mind will assume the US people will just accept his pedophilia and violence toward women and girls as just 'Trump being Trump' and not care if the files are released.
No doubt some already have.
There was an enormous tumult in MAGA-land last year over the Epstein non-release. Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson, Charlie Kirk--and others were seriously outraged at the coverup. Newsmax was openly taunting FOX News for their cowardice to not even cover *anything* Epstein. But then things seemed to quiet down.
My guess is that the Epstein coverup is still simmering, but more back-burner in RW consciousness right now. If Kentucky's Massie loses his upcoming primary race, GOP pols are gonna keep their heads down even further.
Good point about the Massie election.
Never.
There is a particular kind of catastrophe that is worse than the kind produced by malice. Malice, at least, implies a plan. The war the United States is now fighting in Iran — launched on February 28, 2026, under the operationally grandiose name Operation Epic Fury — belongs to the other category.
It is a catastrophe produced by the intersection of two forces that, separately, are manageable, but together become something close to civilisational recklessness: strategic incompetence at the decision-making level, and an ideological contempt for the knowledge —embracing ignorance — that might have prevented the decision from being made.
https://marcusnunes.substack.com/p/trumps-war
AI Overview
Malice does not necessarily imply a long-term plan or premeditation, but it always implies an intentional, wrongful state of mind. In legal terms, it means acting with the intent to cause harm, doing something reckless that causes harm, or committing a wrongful act purposely without justification.
Which are war crimes. Let him be hung.
It's important to realize that Trump is considerably more ignorant than we typically think. John Bolton was Trump's National Security Advisor and what he says about Trump is telling. Trump does not read policy statements or briefing information. It's too complex for him even when it is watered down and simplified. Trump is not strategic and makes decisions based on feelings and whims. So, we get the on-again off-again approach to decision-making. Because Venezuela went so easily, Trump tacitly assumed Iran would go the same way. Since Trump hired incompetent sycophants (Hegseth is the best example of this), and fired all top level people who would challenge him with sage advice and resist his worst inclinations, we now have the Iran disaster. The only silver lining is that this may be the straw that breaks the camel's back in the midterms later this year and well beyond.
IF we have elections.
Quoting Phillips O'Brien: "He basically did what megalomaniac leaders do. They underestimate their enemy and they think they will do this quickly. It’s what Putin did to Ukraine in 2022. “We will just march in, we’ll do what we want. We have this great military.” reminds me of a derogatory joke I heard as a 10 year old in the Bronx.
Lidia references Stalin from 85 years back, and, the joke refers to the Russian invasion of Poland back in 1939. The Russians invaded and occupied the eastern part of Poland without firing a shot by marching in backwards, so, the Poles thought the Russians were leaving...
Trump, his Cabinet, the entire Republican Party, and, all those who voted for him, are a long term disease that is, and, will continue to be, extremely painful, before there is a chance of bringing the United States to a semblance of sanity. MAGA has always formed a 30-40% base of the Republican Party since, at least, the 1972 election.
Very close to the 28% Crazification Factor https://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2005/10/lunch-discussions-145-crazification.html
If Trump's brand ever seriously sours with the Base, every GOP pol will be doing cartwheels trying to explain how they were always Never-Trumpers.
“Krugman: That is a war crime. At least the Israelis have definitely committed war crimes on that front and I’m afraid that the US may be doing it too”.
If war crimes become part of the military agenda — and there nothing restraining trump or Netan-yahoo to do just that — the US is heading toward the tactics of the Wehrmacht and SS during WW II, with neither government having anyone of influence to curtail or even prevent such undertakings. Indeed, the “logic” of this “excursion” virtually points in that direction, as Iranian capitulation remains the objective, as far as any “objective” can be discerned, so we may just see another enhanced level of brutality visited upon the Iranian people, especially if the blood-lust expressed by SecDef Kegsbreath is any guide. Horrible, just bloody awful.
We and the Brits systematically bombed Iragi sewage treatment plants in the years after the first Bush Gulf War. Something like 250,000 Iraqis--mostly kids and the very old--died of diarrheal diseases. War crimes, indeed.
The Israelis have gotten in the habit of bombing hospitals and journalists. And using starvation as a weapon of war. We need J-Street strong enough to put Bibi away for war crimes, and AIPAC out of business.
By the way, is the current pump price actually worse in PPP terms than in 1973 during the first big oil crisis?
From Dollar Times - In the year 1973, the average retail price of gas was $0.39. This is equivalent to $2.97 in 2026 dollars.
Probably too early to know. Dollar is not likely to remain strong in our current circumstances. Our misguided sense of the Middle East has not evolved much in the intervening decades.
How absolutely primitive we are as human beings. A soldier planet. Bang bang, boom boom . Primeval.
Except that the people seen as "primitive" are often more intelligent than current societies are, about many things.
True that . I was probably thinking of the “ancients”, who thrived on battle cultures.
And Hegseth just wants to blow things up. Buildings, people, whatever.
Also, if I remember correctly, shaheds were about 20K. Maybe an upgraded version is more…
Remember trump, Zelenskyy, and who has “the cards”, and who doesn’t? Reckon now that Iran has four aces and trump is bluffing whilst holding a pair of deuces. Guess who is indeed “holding all the cards”?
This says so much about how far America has fallen. We have totally lost the ethos that propelled America to greatness a century ago and maintained it as the undisputed (if indisputably flawed) leader of the free world. That leadership made the entire world freer, wealthier, healthier, and happier. But then we choked. A series of Supreme Court rulings led to corporations and the uber rich shaping and dominating the political conversation. China began its rise - in large part fueled by those same corporate interests chasing cheap labor. Middle America started seeing costs rise and opportunities ebb. So they elected a morally bankrupt, grossly incompetent carnival barker president. And here we are in the lap of kleptocracy masquerading as salt of the earth populism. The world has seen this act repeatedly in the past and it always ends the same way: in blood and tears. And the slack-jawed imbecile in the MAGA hat will look around wondering what happened.
Well and accurately put. I was born in 44, graduated from college in 66, came home from Vietnam in 69, retired in 06. All in all I have been lucky but so so sorrowful witnessing the ever steepening decline.
Mine is a similar arc run a few years later. I share your sorrow.
I share your sorrow too.
My dad came back from Vietnam in '69, like you, after leading the 1st Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division to Vietnam, twice.
He was profoundly disillusioned, and even planned to give away his medals. I just have to be relieved that he isn't here to see the shocking, inexcusable incompetence and cruelty we are now witnessing.
"And the slack-jawed imbecile in the MAGA hat will look around wondering what happened." And then blame someone else, and keep voting for the same sort of politician.
Your conclusion has been proven already.
Trump's policies hurt farmers during his first term, but they voted for him 2 more times.
Now they are crying because he is doing exactly the same things he did in his first term and there is no doubt they would vote for him again.
MAGAts aren't that smart. They just aren't.
LBJ: "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
“I never thought the leopards would eat *my* face!” says person who voted for the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party.
Yep, after Reagan started union busting, oversaw the severe early 80’s recession and rise of the Rust Belt, and rewrote the tax code to favor the wealthy, the working class said “ more please” (Reagan 2, W Bush, and Trump).
Completely.
And MAGA shoes, too:
Little Marco Mocked for Wearing Clown Shoes in Trump Suck-Up
https://www.thedailybeast.com/little-marco-mocked-for-wearing-clown-shoes-in-trump-suck-up/
I see the turning point for US down this road happened with the murder of JFK probably by the CIA and factions inside the power structure to turn Murika into what it is today....read Jeffrey Sachs on this subject.
Yeah, we weren't perfect but we were strong and respected, even under Reagan and GW to lesser extents, but we didn't worry too much about nuclear threats. So who choked? The Supreme Court. Why?
The voters choked. America choked. There has always been a tension between business interests and broader public interests; a healthy tension I would say. But business interests increasingly bought politicians who would do their bidding and that tension began to slip out of balance. As business interests eclipsed the interests of average Americans the ship of state began to tilt with increasingly partisan justices populating the Supreme Court. From there the tilt became a precipice. Bush v Gore. Trump v US. Citizens United. All of this resulted in increasing shift of wealth to the top few percentiles. And now you see the same interests aggressively buying social media (TikTok) and mainstream media (Paramount, CNN, etc) to further shape the flow of information. The oligarchy has arrived. I doubt it will collapse without some extremely disruptive event.
Beautifully articulated.
Thank you Paul and Phillips for this elucidating discussion. I’ve shared it from here and from YouTube
https://youtu.be/DuAJYabShdY
Side Note:
O'Brian says about Venezuela - "It’s been absolutely brilliant for Trump and God knows where the money’s going and who’s getting kickbacks in these business deals ...."
The US didn't just kidnap the Venezuela president and his wife. They also stole a lot of gold, that's turned up with Trump in the White House. No-one's saying where it's going to end up.
https://nypost.com/2026/03/13/business/why-a-cartful-of-massive-gold-bars-was-spotted-inside-the-white-house-last-week/
Stealing from a poor country.
Wonder which off-shore bank is storing those for trump and his offspring.
And now we're hearing that they're working some deal with Maduro where he is pressured to "disclose" what he knows about interference in US elections so there's an election interference subplot to come out of this in exchange for leniency for Maduro.
Disgusting if true. Will anybody except MAGA believe Maduro anyway?
Oh just like they TRIED to do with Zelenskyy!!
Drones are the 21st century version of guerrilla warfare. No conventional military organisation has ever managed to defeat guerrillas: they just pop back up elsewhere.
I also do not see how US can survive a ground troop invasion into a very mountainous Iran
This exactly. 1. How would you sneak in? 2. No USA military knows the terrain. 3. They'll be sitting ducks. Those 2500 marines on the way to Iran need to refuse illegal orders.
Unfortunately, if they are ordered to invade, those orders are perfectly legal.
not if the war was illegal in the first place
They’ve attacked Kharg Island. May try to occupy it,
Right. I just heard that on the BBC news on NPR. The estimate on the arrival of those Marines is about two weeks, though. Plenty of prep time.
Another thought on ground troops - Iran’s Rev Guard and militia just recently found themselves able to slaughter 30,000 of their own people. These are incredibly hardened fighters and I fear that US troops won’t stand up to them very well.
You make too much sense, Sharlene.
Umm, yes, but those 30,000 fellow Iranians were unarmed.
That is the problem with "Take back your government!"
Although Iran is quite mountainous (and has some of the best skiing in the world), not all the mountains are tall, and there also are vast, arid plateaus.
But the Marines not knowing the terrain, wherever it is, is an excellent reason not to invade. Another is that Iranians have a long, ancient history of being excellent fighters - and that is not from being "islamic fanatics," as even Paul Krigman the Great has claimed in his fascinating dialogue above. Their Islam is somewhat more similar to our traditional Christianity - kind of the 'default' religion. (Iran has always included communities of Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians, etc. since ancient times.)
It is also crucial to understand that the 47-year Islamic Republic, in its brutality, has alienated many from the religion. On our side, if what I've recently read is true, that our military is now being told to fight the current war in Iran because 'the second coming of Christ will be there," then we are facing a similar risk of fanaticism and disillusion. Shame on us.
I take your point about defeating guerrilla forces. Though I consider the British and Commonwealth forces during the Malaysian Emergency as a conventional military organization.
Thanks for this informative review. I’m sure I speak for Krugman’s audience - it is so important for the American public to have a reliable and accurate assessment like this of the Iran war, because the Trump administration is a font of fables, fog, and phobias.
Not to mention delusional "vomits" of disinformation.
Great alliteration at the end!
Trump's first problem was that he chose ignorant people for his advisors.
Peter Navaro and Howard Lutnick for the economy and tariffs? They told him what he wanted to hear; an easy way to free money.
And Pete Hegseth on War? (Pete Hegseth on ANYTHING!)
It is well understood in business that A's hire A's and B's hire C's. Now we know what C's hire.
Trump is not even a "C". At best he is a "Y" or even a "Z". But America "hired" him. What does that say about America?
A lot of the Trump supporters I’ve met appear to be nihilists. They’re often religious fanatics gleefully anticipating Armageddon or depressives too chicken to commit suicide themselves. Perhaps the disinvestment from mental health care systems in the early 1970s has some role in all of this.
I think you may be right about the nihilism aspect. I know a nihilist conservative atheist who thinks our planet will survive global warming. If human civilization doesn’t survive, no great loss.
Stephen Miller
This was recorded before the bombing of Kharg Island. Ground troops, here we go. Needless to say, every MAGA voter should be signing up and pushing their own kids into the Marines. You voted for this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws0DLWApHko
I admire Phillips O’Brien, and find him a brilliant analyst with deep expertise. However, like many rational people, he is susceptible to looking for a rationale — even if an evil one — in Trump’s actions. But Trump is, first and foremost, a boundlessly narcissistic chaos agent. So where O’Brien sees basically two options for Trump in the mess he’s made — either declare victory and go home, or enter southern Iran on the ground to reopen the Persian Gulf — I see a third: just keep blowing things up from the air and damn the consequences; apres lui le deluge.
We will run out of stuff to blow things up with.
Trump does back down, pretty consistently, when the markets react or when his base reacts. The outlier is the Epstein files.
It just occurred to me that, while on the one hand, Trump TACOs in reaction to losing loyalty from his base and/or the bond market reacts, he seems seduced by Putin and Netanyahu even more than he is fearful to of political loss. It’s as if either of them are sirens to him. Both of them are benefiting from this war.
So, I see your point now. One can hope but not predict. The historian Joanne Freeman talks about contingency playing an enormous role in history and has been saying that “we are in a contingency moment.”
It also occurred to me that if he were to declare martial law he may very well discover what sedition looks like.
Rather than "seduced by Putin and Netanyahu," I would say "controlled by" them. Obviously they have something big on him, and there are indications that Epstein's millions of pages of evidence (especially those still not released) were collected and shared by him with Israel - and maybe Russia as well. (Do you wonder why he had cameras everywhere, and kept such volumes of emails, photos, videos, etc.?)
Sadly, you bring up an excellent point, common sense, logic and rationale are lacking. 🙁
the one variable is the political one if in fact he still cares about it which is doubtful
Well, that was fun ;)
Great conversation, loads of interesting thoughts - thank you both!
The point about drones being the guerrilla warfare of our time is salient and predictive. Such warfare has conquered larger conventional forces since forever. Amazing how wars repeat their patterns no matter the technology. One constant: human hubris. Might does not make right. Iran has the upper hand.
Well. The war on Iran has achieved one significant goal. It has certainly eclipsed the Epstein files.
And all the other depravities, like ICE and CBP assaults on US soil. And those drove reports of assaults on reproductive freedom into oblivion. It’s an onion of distractions, with each layer distracting from another previously unthinkable loss of rights.
Brilliant and clear-headed analysis. Thank you so much, both. The point made at the end about the price of diesel (up +$1.00/gal.) and its potential effect on red-hatted truckers was very important. Red-hatted consumers are driving by scores of gas stations every day with prices that go up even within the same day. May they all come to some sort of crude awakening!
Farmers too run on diesel. Planting season ones soon. And costs of fertilizer and diesel are going to be way up. More pissed off MAGAs.
The big point about diesel is that it's not even primarily a road fuel. Jet-A is diesel with a slightly lower oil content. Heating oil is #2 diesel (I lived in a rental with oil heat and that's what was on the receipt). That's why the price is up so much more than gasoline. The demand is much higher.
Racists are already accepting higher prices. LBJ understood why there will be no substantial “awakening”: "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
And if the farmers are sweating they will be soon.
How do you have this conversation without raising the question of nuclear weapons?
Agreed and more needs to be said about this “holy war”, “blood as high as a horse’s bridle” etc from the bible to bring about the rapture. The recruiting of radical evangelicals into positions of power in the intelligence and military leadership positions.
And we call the Iranians "muslim fanatics" - which they are not, by the way.
If drones attacked LA with conventional bombs laced with plutonium, would that be sufficient pretext for suspending the election?
Excuse my bluntness, but no. We have had elections through wartime, time and time again. We have never not had them, and we won’t start not having them now.
Well said!
I hope you're right, in this age of US government lawless and unconstitutional behavior.
Thanks, that is what I wanted to know
No, from MAGAs point of view eliminating a Democratic stronghold would make holding the election more desirable.
Who is Greg Watson?
How ironic that Trump has so few cards in this war! Yet Zelensky has been so generous to us with the Ukrainian drone technology.
I've heard that while we are no longer providing monetary aid, we are still supplying intelligence to Ukraine. Does anybody know if the Pentagon is still paying their Starlink bill?
Theyre probably providing the same info to Russia.
What will Iran do? Phillips has always emphasized the importance of the thinking of the top leader. The leader says he wants revenge. His father was killed. His wife was killed. HIs mother was killed. One of his sons was killed. Many of his close colleagues, we presume, were killed or wounded. He was wounded. What is he thinking now I wonder? (The only thing may restrai him is that the Straits blockade is hurting fellow Muslims in Pakistan etc., so there's that.)
Iranian Muslims are Shi'a. Pakistan is Sunni. They don't get along.
Same for the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, and all the other mostly Sunni Muslim neighbors. But I don't think religion is the main motivating factor here. Spencer points out how many close family members of Mojtaba Khamene'i have just been killed.
My comment was actually directed at Lidia. I apparently selected the wrong reply button.
Given that they have attacked fellow Muslims….
The shoes are probably the ultimate showing of why this administration is so incompetent. Trump makes a decision that is clearly idiotic. But it serves the purpose of demonstrating who is obedient to him. He doesn't like anybody who is not, and they all know it. So everybody goes along even though they clearly know it's wrong (size), even as it hurts their feet and reputation.
Whatever Trump says; he wants to hear the words "yes Sir, you are Brilliant Sir, its the most fantastic idea anybody ever had Sir". His narcissistic personality and fragile ego will not allow him to acknowledge that someone else may know more than him - so he cannot ask "advisers" to educate him. They are there to confirm what comes out of Trumps mouth. But they must take full blame for any and all mistakes that Trump makes.
So Trump is governing without competent advice. Even if for some reason a competent person ends up in his White House, that person will have to suppress their knowledge, let the mistakes happen - and then take the blame. Those who are not ready to do so, would either not have taken the job in the first place or soon have to find another job. SAD.