277 Comments
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Derelict's avatar

There's always money in the cookie jar for wars of choice. Always.

There is never any money to be found anywhere to materially improve the lives of American citizens, especially those who are poor, disabled, veterans, or old.

chris lemon's avatar

The US spent over $4Trillion in GW Bush's Mideast fiasco. The entire war was deficit funded, put on the taxpayers credit card. Congress would not even pay for a war after the US was attacked. Trump is now jumping back into the same snakepit, to waste even more money, while running the deficit up even more, not even pretending to care. The US, operating under the current political system, is doomed.

NubbyShober's avatar

Yup. The GOP was crowing about how the Gulf States + oil revenue was going to have the Iraq war "...pay for itself." Total bullpuckey. The real price tag--which included a lot of extra Medicare disability and VA outlay, is as you say, over $4 TRILLION.

This current Epstein-Iran war is primarily going to make Big Oil happy, as the price per barrel continues to climb up, up, up. Which includes Trump's KGB case manager, Vladimir Putin, and Russian oil. So don't be surprised if gasoline hits $6/gallon pretty soon.

So Trump ends 99% of all US Ukraine aid in FY2025. Then in '26 starts a war that could up Russian oil revenues by 50-100%, filling up their war chest. And simultaneously uses up all the munitions we'd've otherwise given Ukraine to fight off the Russians. And people still argue that Trump is not a KGB asset.

chris lemon's avatar

Putin is more than happy to fight to the last Iranian.

NubbyShober's avatar

If their deaths keep pushing up the revenue he gets from Russian petrocarbons, his gratitude will be boundless.

chris lemon's avatar

Putin and Xi. If Russia and China can keep funneling munitions into Iran, and the Iranians keep fighting, as they are likely to do, they will bleed the US of all precision munitions in a month or so. The Iranians have no greater unifying "leader" than Field Marshall "Second Coming" Hegseth, who is literally cheering for a new crusade, charging into Iran under Cross and Star of David banners.

NSAlito's avatar

Trump is a great Russian asset, and an even greater asset to China.

I really don't think he'd ever admit to thinking everything in support of Russia wasn't his own idea (he's a complete sucker for flattery). After all, the Russians have been laundering money through him for a long time, and Trump likes money, so Trump likes Russians.

NubbyShober's avatar

I believe it goes far deeper and darker than the "Useful Idiot" hypothesis; and so prefer the "Traitor" scenario, wherein Trump was recruited by the KGB (FSB) some time in the 1980's. Right around the time he started laundering money for Russian mobsters. He's been a traitor to his country ever since.

NSAlito's avatar

I have trouble thinking of Trump in terms of anything but self-interested sociopath. He has no sense of ideology beyond that. It's not as if Trump ·agreed· to do anything for anybody that didn't involve him getting his beak wet.

NubbyShober's avatar

FSB is still just KGB with a name change. Their doctrine always included recruiting business types, whom in addition to the usual money laundering duties, they would usually encourage to get into politics. So as to make themselves more useful. Which is Donald's MO to a T, even before he lucked out with the Apprentice.

They've kept the sweetener coming, for sure. Don Jr. during Trump1 confirmed that Russians were a major source of revenue. But while KGB prefers their assets willing and enthusiastic, they're perfectly willing to coerce.

Terrence W. Tilley's avatar

How much capital has the stock market lost since Trump began his war of whim?

Chris Durban's avatar

Paul, how can we arrange for you to go over to Congress and testify, citing precisely this data, these figures, this information? Would be good to get it into the official record there.

𝔅𝔢𝔢𝔩𝔷𝔢𝔟𝔲𝔟𝔟𝔞's avatar

Congress knows.

The problem is that half of them don't care.

j.harbroe@mail.com's avatar

trump has admitted not remembering starting this war with Iran. This is one of several problems with Dementia and a significant problem. We cannot have a president who is seriously ill with Dementia starting wars under the control of an 'alter-ego' (so to speak). Congress knows trump is seriously ill and the GOP must step in with a solution immediately, if not sooner.

Eric's avatar

He may be giving a different rationale every other 5 minutes, but where has he said he didn't start the war (errm, conflict)?

Kelly Eggers's avatar

Great idea Chris.👏💔🇺🇸

Cris Andra's avatar

I wonder how much the Trump administration has spent so far and how much water there is? It seems like everyone in the cabinet is partying hard on the tax payer dime. How much has the deficit increased with just these two years?

j.harbroe@mail.com's avatar

I agree with your thought but it is off topic. This topic is the daily cost of this war.

NSAlito's avatar

It's all part and parcel of Trump's attitude to the US Treasury as his personal slush, and that he can waste it on anything he wants.

Jim DeBlasio's avatar

There's no excuse for failing to support Ukraine 100% and this ridiculous attack on Iran shows the nonsense of all the Trump arguments. Shame on congressional Republicans for failing to curb Trump.

Frau Katze's avatar

It’s actively hurting Ukraine because shortages of weapons and missile interceptors is now developing.

Article this morning at the WSJ:

Stefan's avatar

Fortunately there has been a lot of innovative new production in Europe of military equipment, some of it is even Ukrainians opening assembly lines in the EU for missile and drone production.

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Frau Katze's avatar

I didn’t know that. Grim.

Bruce Kettelle's avatar

Jim, I have another take on how GOP MAGA voters and GOP POLITICIANS CONVERTED TO MAGA look at facts, think about those facts, and make action decisions based on that process.

I am not blessed with Paul Krugman’s education in economics nor am I a Billionaire Brat like Zuckerberg, Bezos, Larry Ellison, etc, etc.

But this much I know:

In a strongly multi-developed country like USA large outcome results (like GDP) are largely irrelevant when measured against the results of smaller countries where GDP results from a much more limited list of enterprises and developed industries…and a more limited list of opportunities for workers. In turn, education and training are like wise more limited in facilitating expansion and growth in those key industries.

That may mean that the living standards of people in those smaller countries are less sophisticated and/or less important in societal relationships than in more developed sophisticated countries, particularly in the West, where success & wealth are far more likely to be judged by titles, material possessions, and even braggadocio than actual accomplishments and true financial net worth.

But the “Key” to more expansive and expanding living standards within any economic system is that created wealth is recognized as a result of teamwork and sharing.

That is not to say that everyone provides equal effort in achieving wealth within a society. But it is essential that all participants are viewed as necessary.

Capitalism in its intended form accomplishes that. But the ties between Wealth & Power in American Capitalism have been so distorted as to effectively remove the largest participating group by far…the workers who produce, construct, erect and grow ALL of our nation’s wealth…while an illegal coalition of ideas people and political leaders have so warped our system that virtually all created wealth is effectively funneled to a relatively tiny %/number of individuals by the controlled impetus of “legalized theft.”

I am NOT defining Socialism here. That is even worse, in practice, as a system of Legalized Theft.

But make no mistake…the people who construct Tesla autos or appear as workers ants in Amazon’s global direct-to-consumer retail system are the wealth generators who have made Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, et al, wealthy beyond any possible expectation of “Capitalism” solely because theft is legalized within the system by a handful who have seized control of it.

andré's avatar

"Socialism" is a word used to scare people in US politics.

It is often wrongly attributed to the right-wing authoritarianism of communism, which in practice is a system where a small elite controls the economy to their own benefit. Mush like any oligarchy, as in Russia and the US.

Real socialism, often called democratic socialism, is where access to essential services is guaranteed, as well as the freedoms of democracy.

Like universal health care, available in almost every democratic country. except of course, the US.

Some countries, like Canada, are striving to provide essential services to everyone, but haven't yet arrived. We look to the successes of Europe, and see the US as an example to avoid. Even before Trump.

Stefan's avatar

Socialism comes in many shapes and forms. In Europe socialism is in fusion with capitalism creating what is called "social market economy". At the same time most European countries does not have a winner-takes-all political system, which in my opinion is the main reason why the US pivots so heavily when the administrations change color.

andré's avatar

Let’s consider what is capitalism. It is using capital for production. There is private and public (state owned) capitalism. In most countries there is a mix, like Canada and Europe. Communism until recently favoured public capitalism. In certain countries, like Egypt and Iran, the military is directly involved in public capitalism. The US has public capitalism (ports, airports, railways, dams), but less than in most countries.

martin.english@gmail.com's avatar

The US has asked Ukraine for help defending Gulf allies against Iranian drones, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5llg0e9g9o

j.harbroe@mail.com's avatar

Jim, I concur with your words, 'there's no excuse for failing to support Ukraine 100%' and the 99% American taxpayers (I'm sure) concur with your words. Unfortunately the 1% see things differently. trump negotiated WW3 with putin before he ran for president in 2016. But trump was in what is called 'Early onset Dementia' in those days. Today, trump is fully engulfed by Dementia. He stated he does not recall starting this war with Iran which should scare the hell out of Congress. trump has to be dealt with 'yesterday'. Congress and the GOP know they are in trouble. This is WW3 but cannot be called as such until putin enters this war, and putin will enter this war. However, putin needs to march his troops through Ukraine to reach his goal(s) ie; Czechslovakia, the Nordic countries, then onto Western Europe. This is what he and trump agreed to before trump entered into the 2016 campaign.

Liesje ten Houten's avatar

Dear Dr. Krugman you did not address the latest Trump caper - that of invading Ecuador.

Will the U.S. ever realise what it is doing to the world order of things & its own population’s welfare?

Geoffrey B Schwartz's avatar

We will reap what

Trump has sown. The flames of anti Americanism have been fanned across the globe. Terrorist attacks are coming.

YouAreTheHippopotamus's avatar

And if significant attacks on US soil occur the regime will use it as justification to further erode civil liberties possibly going so far as to declare martial law and/or cancel elections. The greatest danger we face is no longer from abroad, but from within.

j.harbroe@mail.com's avatar

trump is seriously ill with Dementia. I posted this during his campaign in 2016 and I dogged him during his entire first term. Then four years passed and now another year. For the past year I have chased trump and the GOP on this plus some of his administration. I've been insisting psychiatrists take a stand and finally in February 2026 two have. They both concur with my statements. I've now started posting it on international newspapers because they are all wondering what is going on. But this is only half of the problem. Normally JD Vance would step in but Vance has publicly stated he was raised by his grandmother because his mother was a drug addict. And, Granny received an SSI check each and every month of his childhood. SSI checks are given to those with mental health issues. Mental health issues can be hereditary. Clearly this mental health issue passed from Granny to his Mother. As well JD Vance has repeatedly shown significant signs of Paranoia. Paranoia is a mental illness and is usually tied to other mental illnesses. The GOP was supposed to do a background check on Vance before agreeing to his being VP (especially given trump's age and the fact that I've dogged him since 2016). This background check is supposed to dig up this sort of information so either the GOP did not run this background check or they are hiding all of this. Like it or not, this is the reality we are staring in the face. The GOP knows they have to deal with trump now because he openly admitted 'not remembering' starting this war with Iran. That means he did it under the control of Dementia. There are other symptoms of Dementia but doing things under and "alter-ego" (so to speak) is a significant problem and we cannot have a president who functions under two different personalities.

Gordon Berry's avatar

It is an invasion of the PEOPLE of Ecuador -

But it is by the invitation of one strong-arm bully to another!

We need to remove them both.

Liesje ten Houten's avatar

Agreed. Wasn’t aware of Latin strong armed bully only registered peace loving bully after the Nobel Prize. 😃

pts's avatar

The American military has been in Ecuador on and off for a long time. When I lived in Ecuador in the late 20-aughts, then-President Rafael Correa kicked the US military out, in a much-ballyhooed departure from the status quo. I don't know exactly when the Americans returned, but I guarantee you it wasn't just last week or last month. Since Correa, who was beneficial in several ways but who had a pronounced knack for pissing people off and a disturbing desire for long-term power, the country has lurched strongly to the right. In spite of that and ostensible efforts to control the inflow of precursor chemicals and drug manufacturing, drug trafficking and lawlessness are now rampant.

Frau Katze's avatar

I saw that! Unbelievable.

j.harbroe@mail.com's avatar

trump is seriously ill with Dementia. He is making these decisions in an altered state of mind. He openly admitted that he did not recall starting the war with Iran which means he was in an altered state. This is one of multiple problems with Dementia but it is one of the most serious. This is why trump is unfit to be president. The GOP is totally aware but it also means they have no choice but to make an ultimate decision to replace trump. Normally that would be the VP but JD Vance has a family history of mental illness which can be hereditary and Vance has shown multiple and clear signs of Paranoia which is a mental illness. Obviously the GOP did not do their job before they approved trump choosing Vance. There was supposed to be a background investigation. These investigations dig into this sort of family history. And if nobody else is posting this, I am.

Mary Lowry Smith's avatar

Your videos are great and much appreciated.

Katy Cavanagh's avatar

Imagine what $1 Billion a day would do for healthcare and public education!

Jerryk's avatar

Trump always had a plan for his invasion of Iran. It’s to keep the Jeffrey Epstein story, and his association with it, out of the news cycle. And he’s been largely successful.

stephanieb's avatar

It’s always ‘business’: UAE, Israel and Russia.

Gordon Berry's avatar

It's not just the money costing us - it's their terrorism of the rest of the world by a bunch of autocrats who care nothing for the human morality of CIVILIZATION - something so elquently given to us by the US Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution.

John Ham's avatar

Ever wonder why our founding fathers gave the responsibility of declaring war to Congress rather than investing that grave responsibility to one psychopathic individual. Wonder no more.

Mike's avatar

Such a powerful message.

Trump speaks about the need for regime change, because the government is killing innocent civilians, and for once I agree with him-he should resign!

Teresa D. Hawkes, Ph.D.'s avatar

The United States can no longer be trusted as an ally in the World or by 60% of its own People. 40% will go along with Trump no matter what he does. He is conducting expensive military adventures around the world, including Iran, Ecuador, and Venezuela. He is backed by most industrialists. He is backed by the US Supreme Court. He is backed by most media. He is backed by his evil administration and the Republicans in Congress and the US State Houses. The War Powers act was just rejected by the US Senate. For them, what Constitution? Mr. Trump is lawless and always has been. He has never read the Constitution. They have all declined to care for the health of their own People (40%) and all others (the 60%). They have declined to care about immigrants of all stripes. They have said women are all stupid and must be tightly controlled by men who have every right and privilege there is while women can obey or be beaten or die. They have declined to care about the world. They have decided a few rich men should have everything and the rest of us nothing. They want to give almost all jobs to AI and fuck humans. Trickle down is a joke. This is known to them. They don’t care. This is where we are now.

George Patterson's avatar

Constantly Concerned Collins (R-ME), said: “Passing this resolution now would send the wrong message to Iran and to our troops. At this juncture, providing unequivocal support to our service members is critically important, as is ongoing consultation by the Administration with Congress.”

Teresa D. Hawkes, Ph.D.'s avatar

I love that: constantly concerned collins. She voted to let Kavanaugh into SCOTUS too, among her many instances of being constantly concerned. This woman has to go. The voters need to say so.

Jeff's avatar

This is the problem with voting on a war resolution after the fact. There's all kinds of cover to use to vote to maintain the status quo. Supporting the troops is the first among these.

That's the reason why the Constitution has Congress authorizing wars before they start. If before starting the war Congress had to take a vote on putting Americans in harm's way that's a much more difficult vote and it would have forced Trump to make an argument for it. They would also have to authorize spending a lot of money. I really doubt it would have passed.

stephanieb's avatar

NO, IT ISN’T.

They don’t need to GO in the first place.

andré's avatar

My take is that many in the US are afraid of rocking the boat. For too many have the Reagan like view of the economy. It is not chance and the support provided by govt, but the talent of those who make it, and those who didn't, it was their fault.

A backward view of the world.

The ÙS success was largely due to Europe destroying itself in 2 major wars. By default the US was the only large industrialized country left untouched.

Both Europe and China have the economic power to challenge US dominance. Military force depends on economic support.

Frau Katze's avatar

Actually support for this war is tepid. Even his whole base doesn’t support it. He’s got about 30% support, last I checked.

Teresa D. Hawkes, Ph.D.'s avatar

I am being generous. The polls do show this particular war is unpopular. The rest of what Trump/crew are doing? I believe they sit at about 40%. Again, I may be being generous. Generosity is called for. We still have 60% going for us. Numbers do matter.

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Teresa D. Hawkes, Ph.D.'s avatar

I don't know. I think about 40% of the USA LOVES Trump and what he does because they share his goals: misogyny (they love to beat their women into submission in various ways and they have enabled that wherever they could), racism (they hate anyone not white, and they also hate anyone poor, and they use them--they were slavers for a reason and they would be there again if they could), and cruelty. I mentioned their cruelty above. I have lived in Texas and Florida. I could go on about what they do, but I won't here. Suffice it to say, these white men love Trump because they are poorer versions of Trump. And on the surface at least, they are all Christian Nationalists. Do go ahead and read the things southern writers wrote about their version of Christianity before, during, and after the Civil War.

CL's avatar

Already miss it, Paul … Thanks for this helpful analysis of the money. I think it’s important we continue to track costs (Iran v Ukraine and Iran v domestic programs), make it easy to understand, and get this info out widely. Americans care about money wasted overseas and not spent on domestic needs.

andré's avatar

Funny thing now. This war with Iran has given many states a demand for unique Ukrainian anti-drone technology. Rich gulf states will now be funding Ukraine's defense against the Russian invaders.

Stephen Schiff's avatar

Perhaps some of them might consider ending their practice of being a conduit for Russian acquisition of banned US chips in exchange for Ukrainian help. But that might hurt the bottom lines of the ruling elites.

🐝 BusyBusyBee 🐝's avatar

I think it’s really important to remember that the kit the Biden admin sent to Ukraine was *old* and a lot of it was scheduled to be decommissioned (at a cost to the US taxpayer, of course) before a better use for it was found. The majority of the $150b the US “spent on Ukraine” was really more a scheme to upgrade our existing deprecated kit and save ourselves the expense of having to just dispose of it.

George Patterson's avatar

If the equipment had been reported at its actual value, instead of the value of new stuff, the reports would have showed that spent about $40 billion.

andré's avatar

True, but it was a lot better than what Trump has done since.

Jeff's avatar

It is our tax money, but almost all the spending in Ukraine goes back to defense contractors and our economy.

andré's avatar

Also true. It is important to note that Ukraine had majority support among voters and elected members of Congress. It was largely manipulative messaging that let Trump eke out his narrow win.

Like on immigration, when he did everything to stop a bipartisan solution before the election.

Peter Dorman's avatar

Thank you, Paul, for this perspective. And if Trump, Rubio, and Hegseth decide to put boots on the ground in Iran, the cost in money and lives will suddenly become much higher, all for a conflict that still has no rationale or end game.

William Amsbary's avatar

Let's make sure that when Trump makes the inevitable "ask" from Congress for $50 billion or more to fund the ongoing illegal war (replenishment of depleted munitions), that other priorities are also addressed (money for Ukraine etc). The opposition might even seek a clawback of already appropriated money from DHS to offset the cost of this war of choice.

Frau Katze's avatar

Yes, take it out of DHS’s huge pile.

Jason's avatar

Headset is a nice upgrade for audio quality, ty. 👍