Off Today

Too much going on

I was in virtual meetings all day yesterday, so no time to write anything substantive.

Let me mention, however, that one of the meetings involved closed-door presentations from strategic experts about the Iran conflict, and it was even more depressing than I expected.

I asked what the 6000 or so Marines and paratroopers on their way to the Persian Gulf can do to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the answer was basically, are you kidding? Iran can fire missiles and launch drones against basically any target in the Gulf, from anywhere along its very long coast or from the rugged mountains behind that coast. Policing that area would be extremely difficult even for a force many times as large as what the U.S. is deploying.

Meanwhile oil price futures keep fluctuating in response to ever-changing messages from the White House — what Edward Luce calls Donald Trump’s “tornado of piffle.” The key point is that the prices everyone (me included) watches are financial instruments, claims on future barrels of oil rather than actual barrels. And they don’t mean much until physical oil starts flowing — which seems unlikely unless the Iranian regime decides to allow it.

But Trump’s aides keep him happy with daily video montages of “stuff blowing up.”

American greatness was nice while it lasted. See you tomorrow.