Warsh seems afraid of saying anything Trump wouldn't like. Maybe he might pull the nomination. Regardless, Trump's war is putting upward pressure on prices across the globe. We don't need a partisan hack at a critical time like this taking orders from the White House.
I agree. So we’ll either get a sock puppet or no one. I vote for no one. Go, Tillis! You know, one of those things you didn’t think you’d ever say/think/write.
Is Tillis still threatening to refuse to allow the nomination to move out of committee? I read last night that he was making statements indicating he was chickening out in that regard. I hope what I read was wrong. But Tilllis still has an (R) after his name, so....
This is an important point. The confirmation process has become an exercise in candidate prevarication. Perhaps it always was, because questioners are asking for what are, essentially, the candidates' opinions rather than matters of fact. I don't know if there is a solution to this problem. You can't hold a candidate accountable for not expressing his true opinion at the time of questioning, because only the candidate knows for sure. Perhaps all we can do is note, as Dr. Krugman does, how skillfully the candidates are able to evade the questions asked of them to reveal their true opinions, while noting anything they might have expressed or put in writing earlier. It really is theater, Kabuki, or perhaps musical comedy, minus the music.
True enough, but if I understand the exchange correctly, he waffled and babbled. No yes or no answer. And the MAGAts will vote to confirm him in any case.
Satire? Parody? It's a strange act, intended for an audience of one but of necessity performed for an audience of 100, who want the nominee to demonstrate his independence from his true audience. This he cannot do, because it's likely to result in retraction of his nomination. Yet if he fails, if just a couple of Republicans decide to do what's right for the nation rather than for the narcissist in the White House, his appointment will not be confirmed. A classic catch-22 situation.
By definition: if trump likes you, compliments you, or nominates you for any position.....you have already proven to him that you have no spine and will do his bidding. Waffling and babbling are requirements for further self-debasement.
Exactly so, Searcher. And that is the reason candidates adopt this posture. And I like the question you provide as an example. It's a trick question, because "science" is not a belief system, it is a system of procedures. But we humans also call "science" the results we obtain from those procedures, and often confuse those two meanings in our responses.
True enough. Thinking about this process a little more, a candidate REALLY has to suck to be rejected. Because to be rejected he or she has to annoy a sufficient number of people from his own party as well as those of the opposition party who would be inclined, out of courtesy, to accept people the President wants as his advisors. And the Trump candidates have been so appalling that the confirmation votes have been unusually close. That's how we've gotten creatures like Hegseth and Russia's girl and RFK Jr. confirmed. So I expect Warsh will be confirmed, and he can't be fired by a new and saner (how could it be otherwise?) administration. But perhaps he will either shape-shift to conform to the new environment or be neutralized by the subsequent nomination of new Fed board members opposed to his viewpoint (whatever it might be at the moment).
You can't hold a candidate accountable for lying to the Senate? So say that something is settled law and then unsettle the law in the first case that comes to the court? Say you don't take orders from Trump and then do exactly as Trump says?
No, you can’t retrospectively unconfirm him/her. And if you’re the minority it won’t matter unless the candidate makes a sufficient number of tha majority sufficiently uncomfortable.
This is an important point. The confirmation process has become an exercise in candidate prevarication. Perhaps it always was, because questioners are asking for what are, essentially, the candidates' opinions rather than matters of fact. I don't know if there is a solution to this problem. You can't hold a candidate accountable for not expressing his true opinion at the time of questioning, because only the candidate knows for sure. Perhaps all we can do is note, as Dr. Krugman does, how skillfully the candidates are able to evade the questions asked of them to reveal their true opinions, while noting anything they might have expressed or put in writing earler. It really is theater, Kabuki, or perhaps musical comedy, minus the music.
Thanks, Jay Jay. There’s something going wrong with my comments on this particular article. No problem in other places. I just get a message that says “Something went wrong” with no further information as to what that “something” was or how to fix it.
Thanks again. When something like this happens, I tend to blame user error, being technologically challenged. I hadn't thought about the possibility of a cyberattack on Substack. But since Substacks are starting to replace the MSM as news sources, they are probably inviting such attacks, either from MSM-affiliated sources or (more likely) general bad actors, either foreign-based or domestic.
Bleh. We know Warsh is a hack. We know he's going to be confirmed by the invertebrates in the Senate. Unfortunately, once he is installed as chairman he will gain a lot of convening authority with the press, many of whom will report his blathering uncritically.
All Warsh and Trump care about is markets. I dislike both of them intensely but don’t let your partisan freak out make you lose money. Inflation is good for the market. Things people buy cost more. The Fortune 500 benefits from that.
Inflation can be many things, but there is only so much money to go around and at some point spending slows when inflation gets too high. The main problem with Warsh is not inflation though but if he will jeopardize government bonds.
I'm pretty convinced that as long as Trump is in power, which could also include a third term, he will try to make the board rule his way. The longer Trump stays in power without real and determined opposition, the easier it will be.
There won't be a third term. Indeed, he likely won't make it all the way through this one.
In any case, he'll >try< to get the board to vote his way - he will fail. And he doesn't and won't have the power to replace them all with hacks, especially after November.
I don't think so. At least Trump is only interested in markets if he is able to make money by manipulating them. That's another reason why it's very prudent to abandon ship now. If you want a large stock market with no rules and obvious insider trading, then the US market under Trump and his SEC appears to be the place to go. If not, then better go elsewhere.
Thankfully, the Chair doesn't render the decisions, the whole board does, and, thankfully again, most of the rest of the board remain credible technocrats.
For now. As time passes there will be more opportunities to replace current members with MAGAts. And the chair has a louder voice than anyone else and can distort the market without actually moving the rates.
Paul. I've said before how very much I appreciate these videos you are doing. Please continue. Your intelligence, honest voice, and seriousness are so needed, and your observations are so informative. You and Heather Cox Richardson are in a class of your own. Thank you!
I can confirm that analysis. I had meetings with Warsh when he was a Governor. My impression, close up, was that he was more interested in reciting the current right-wing talking points than in confronting the real problems the Fed was dealing with.
It could take up to six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by Iran’s military, according to a Pentagon brief to the US Congress.
The assessment suggests the economic fallout from the conflict could stretch into late this year or beyond, with shipping disruptions and elevated energy prices likely to persist.
It adds that and any such operation is unlikely to begin until the US-Iran war ends.
It's not just energy, its urea. Without shipments soon, famine becomes a possibility, especially for poorer countries who are having trouble competing for more expensive urea fertilizer as well as fuel.
I hope that during his confirmation hearings, every single Democratic senator says, "Mr. Warsh, Joe Biden won the 2020 election. Donald Trump lost, lied about it, and incited an insurrection to prevent the peaceful transfer of power."
I wish they would frame more probing questions that would be more difficult to evade, like "Have you seen credible evidence that Joe Biden did not actually win the 2020 election, and if so, what evidence is that?"
Before it sinks, Warsh certainly will be able to significantly enrich himself (at taxpayer expense). Like other Trump acolytes, what happens to the ship of state does not matter to Warsh.
Another day, another unqualified sycophant put into a position of power to undo what had been a democratically managed branch of government. Please God, please make it stop.
I guess the Republicans in the Senate will be happy with the choice as long as they get word of how the Fed will act a few hours before everyone else. That's why they stay in the Senate.
He cannot be independent because his uber-rich father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, has been shoveling money to Trump super PACs and organizations for years. Smart does not override the ties that bind to money and power. We have seen that repeatedly in Trump world, as there have been plenty of Ivy and Ivy-adjacent graduates who have put their brains in storage to stay in his club.
Oh my. I need to check this out as I didn't know his FIL was Lauder. Adding to my spreadsheet/Venn diagram of financial/family/business connections which is sometimes, but not always, useful for boycotting and personal buying choices. Thanks.
Oh yes, Lauder has been on my s-list and some, but not all, of these companies are on my spreadsheet - I will add. (Many years ago I moved to NYC for some years and worked for the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility - which opened my eyes to the fact that just a few major corporations own many other entities - even worse now.)
Not their brains (what they have of them), just their integrity. Maybe they never had any integrity. Maybe they don't realize that it will take a lifetime to restore it once lost. Maybe they don't care as long as they get the money.
Wait! Wait! Trump is a sock puppet. So, what is a sock puppet's sock puppet. A sous suck puppet? An under sock puppet. Mini sock puppet? If he's got any hops he might be an athletic sock puppet. Properly attired he might be an argyle sock puppet. Experience at an airport might make him a wind sock puppet. So many possibilities.
Please remember this Kevin Walsh is the stepson of the genius Ronald Lauder who was the original. Let’s own Greenland proponent! Failed mayoral candidate,head of world Jewish congress and failed Austrian embasador ( recall Felix Block spy hoax)
The fact that he could not answer the question of whether Trump lost the 2020 election should be an immediate disqualification for any significant government office.
Like so much of our system, the Senate confirmation process has become a Kabuki performance, particularly where MAGAt/GOPers are involved.
Did Jimmy Carter lose the 1980 election?
Yes. Yes, he did.
So what do we have here?
Yet another Trump lapdog.
What do we get when nobody can say "no" to Trump's neverending stream of bad ideas?
Lots of bad ideas.
Warsh seems afraid of saying anything Trump wouldn't like. Maybe he might pull the nomination. Regardless, Trump's war is putting upward pressure on prices across the globe. We don't need a partisan hack at a critical time like this taking orders from the White House.
I agree. So we’ll either get a sock puppet or no one. I vote for no one. Go, Tillis! You know, one of those things you didn’t think you’d ever say/think/write.
Yes, it occurred to me that if Warsh said, "Yes, Joe Biden won the 2020 election," an outraged scream of "You're fired!" would emanate from the WH....
Is Tillis still threatening to refuse to allow the nomination to move out of committee? I read last night that he was making statements indicating he was chickening out in that regard. I hope what I read was wrong. But Tilllis still has an (R) after his name, so....
Apparently he's still holding steady. Stay tuned.
At first I thought GOPers was “GROYpers “ !
It's mostly the same thing.
This is an important point. The confirmation process has become an exercise in candidate prevarication. Perhaps it always was, because questioners are asking for what are, essentially, the candidates' opinions rather than matters of fact. I don't know if there is a solution to this problem. You can't hold a candidate accountable for not expressing his true opinion at the time of questioning, because only the candidate knows for sure. Perhaps all we can do is note, as Dr. Krugman does, how skillfully the candidates are able to evade the questions asked of them to reveal their true opinions, while noting anything they might have expressed or put in writing earlier. It really is theater, Kabuki, or perhaps musical comedy, minus the music.
It’s not an opinion that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. It’s a fact.
True enough, but if I understand the exchange correctly, he waffled and babbled. No yes or no answer. And the MAGAts will vote to confirm him in any case.
Satire? Parody? It's a strange act, intended for an audience of one but of necessity performed for an audience of 100, who want the nominee to demonstrate his independence from his true audience. This he cannot do, because it's likely to result in retraction of his nomination. Yet if he fails, if just a couple of Republicans decide to do what's right for the nation rather than for the narcissist in the White House, his appointment will not be confirmed. A classic catch-22 situation.
All true, but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for any MAGAt to do what's right for the nation.
It would be a catch 22 if there was a snowball's chance in hell that a couple of Republicans decided to do the right thing.
By definition: if trump likes you, compliments you, or nominates you for any position.....you have already proven to him that you have no spine and will do his bidding. Waffling and babbling are requirements for further self-debasement.
James, not answering is an answer. Like asking someone, “Do you believe in science?” and them responding, “Well, I really can’t say.”
Exactly so, Searcher. And that is the reason candidates adopt this posture. And I like the question you provide as an example. It's a trick question, because "science" is not a belief system, it is a system of procedures. But we humans also call "science" the results we obtain from those procedures, and often confuse those two meanings in our responses.
Comedy? Maybe tragicomedy.
True enough. Thinking about this process a little more, a candidate REALLY has to suck to be rejected. Because to be rejected he or she has to annoy a sufficient number of people from his own party as well as those of the opposition party who would be inclined, out of courtesy, to accept people the President wants as his advisors. And the Trump candidates have been so appalling that the confirmation votes have been unusually close. That's how we've gotten creatures like Hegseth and Russia's girl and RFK Jr. confirmed. So I expect Warsh will be confirmed, and he can't be fired by a new and saner (how could it be otherwise?) administration. But perhaps he will either shape-shift to conform to the new environment or be neutralized by the subsequent nomination of new Fed board members opposed to his viewpoint (whatever it might be at the moment).
You can't hold a candidate accountable for lying to the Senate? So say that something is settled law and then unsettle the law in the first case that comes to the court? Say you don't take orders from Trump and then do exactly as Trump says?
No, you can’t retrospectively unconfirm him/her. And if you’re the minority it won’t matter unless the candidate makes a sufficient number of tha majority sufficiently uncomfortable.
Brett Kavanaugh.
At least Kabuki has rods and internal strings for movement. Imagining a sock puppet with 47’s itty bitty fingers inside is just gross. 🤢
Nobody puts one over on Fred C. Dobbs.
This is an important point. The confirmation process has become an exercise in candidate prevarication. Perhaps it always was, because questioners are asking for what are, essentially, the candidates' opinions rather than matters of fact. I don't know if there is a solution to this problem. You can't hold a candidate accountable for not expressing his true opinion at the time of questioning, because only the candidate knows for sure. Perhaps all we can do is note, as Dr. Krugman does, how skillfully the candidates are able to evade the questions asked of them to reveal their true opinions, while noting anything they might have expressed or put in writing earler. It really is theater, Kabuki, or perhaps musical comedy, minus the music.
somehow you have a 1/2 doz. repeats on this comment …
Just deleted most of them. Comment threads are hard enough to follow as it is, even when (despite our best efforts) they're interesting.
Thanks, Jay Jay. There’s something going wrong with my comments on this particular article. No problem in other places. I just get a message that says “Something went wrong” with no further information as to what that “something” was or how to fix it.
Yes, I’ve seen a few wobbles on other substacks too.
Possibly tech difficulties or under attack.
Thanks again. When something like this happens, I tend to blame user error, being technologically challenged. I hadn't thought about the possibility of a cyberattack on Substack. But since Substacks are starting to replace the MSM as news sources, they are probably inviting such attacks, either from MSM-affiliated sources or (more likely) general bad actors, either foreign-based or domestic.
Bleh. We know Warsh is a hack. We know he's going to be confirmed by the invertebrates in the Senate. Unfortunately, once he is installed as chairman he will gain a lot of convening authority with the press, many of whom will report his blathering uncritically.
Once he steps in, I’m out of the market.
I'm already working on my exit because of the AI bubble. Kevin Warsh is only an additional small pimple on a very ugly face full of enormous pimples.
All Warsh and Trump care about is markets. I dislike both of them intensely but don’t let your partisan freak out make you lose money. Inflation is good for the market. Things people buy cost more. The Fortune 500 benefits from that.
Inflation can be many things, but there is only so much money to go around and at some point spending slows when inflation gets too high. The main problem with Warsh is not inflation though but if he will jeopardize government bonds.
He will, but only slightly. The whole board votes on rates, and most of the rest of the board remains credible technocrats.
I'm pretty convinced that as long as Trump is in power, which could also include a third term, he will try to make the board rule his way. The longer Trump stays in power without real and determined opposition, the easier it will be.
There won't be a third term. Indeed, he likely won't make it all the way through this one.
In any case, he'll >try< to get the board to vote his way - he will fail. And he doesn't and won't have the power to replace them all with hacks, especially after November.
He's very much a lame duck.
I don't think so. At least Trump is only interested in markets if he is able to make money by manipulating them. That's another reason why it's very prudent to abandon ship now. If you want a large stock market with no rules and obvious insider trading, then the US market under Trump and his SEC appears to be the place to go. If not, then better go elsewhere.
Thankfully, the Chair doesn't render the decisions, the whole board does, and, thankfully again, most of the rest of the board remain credible technocrats.
For now. As time passes there will be more opportunities to replace current members with MAGAts. And the chair has a louder voice than anyone else and can distort the market without actually moving the rates.
Invertebrates in the Senate—wonderful description!!
Let’s remember that refers to Republicans.
Jellyfish, all of them.
Paul. I've said before how very much I appreciate these videos you are doing. Please continue. Your intelligence, honest voice, and seriousness are so needed, and your observations are so informative. You and Heather Cox Richardson are in a class of your own. Thank you!
I can confirm that analysis. I had meetings with Warsh when he was a Governor. My impression, close up, was that he was more interested in reciting the current right-wing talking points than in confronting the real problems the Fed was dealing with.
I hope he knows he'll be the fall guy for trump's doomed economy.
Doomed is right. This just in at WaPo:
It could take up to six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by Iran’s military, according to a Pentagon brief to the US Congress.
The assessment suggests the economic fallout from the conflict could stretch into late this year or beyond, with shipping disruptions and elevated energy prices likely to persist.
It adds that and any such operation is unlikely to begin until the US-Iran war ends.
It's not just energy, its urea. Without shipments soon, famine becomes a possibility, especially for poorer countries who are having trouble competing for more expensive urea fertilizer as well as fuel.
I heard Warsh's response to who won the election. Unbelievable. Where do these people come from?
I hope that during his confirmation hearings, every single Democratic senator says, "Mr. Warsh, Joe Biden won the 2020 election. Donald Trump lost, lied about it, and incited an insurrection to prevent the peaceful transfer of power."
I wish they would frame more probing questions that would be more difficult to evade, like "Have you seen credible evidence that Joe Biden did not actually win the 2020 election, and if so, what evidence is that?"
Out from under a rock; one of delusion & fueled by his addiction to popularity, power & authority at any cost.
One of Trump's minions.
Planet MAGA.
Before it sinks, Warsh certainly will be able to significantly enrich himself (at taxpayer expense). Like other Trump acolytes, what happens to the ship of state does not matter to Warsh.
I was thinking the same thing. This is why they do it; they get on the Insider Trading list and make tens/hundreds of millions in a week or two.
That’s exactly how he came across to this “watcher.” Slick, no character for the job. Another member of the mafia.
Another day, another unqualified sycophant put into a position of power to undo what had been a democratically managed branch of government. Please God, please make it stop.
I guess the Republicans in the Senate will be happy with the choice as long as they get word of how the Fed will act a few hours before everyone else. That's why they stay in the Senate.
He cannot be independent because his uber-rich father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, has been shoveling money to Trump super PACs and organizations for years. Smart does not override the ties that bind to money and power. We have seen that repeatedly in Trump world, as there have been plenty of Ivy and Ivy-adjacent graduates who have put their brains in storage to stay in his club.
Oh my. I need to check this out as I didn't know his FIL was Lauder. Adding to my spreadsheet/Venn diagram of financial/family/business connections which is sometimes, but not always, useful for boycotting and personal buying choices. Thanks.
Lauder is a long-time Republican supporter and had no problem moving from traditional GOP to Trumpism.
Estée Lauder owns a ton of cosmetic brands:
Skincare: La Mer, Clinique, Origins, The Ordinary, Dr.Jart+, Darphin Paris, Lab Series
Makeup: Estée Lauder, M·A·C, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Too Faced, Smashbox, Tom Ford Beauty, GLAMGLOW, AERIN Beauty
Fragrance: Jo Malone London, Le Labo, KILIAN PARIS, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, Aramis
Haircare: Aveda, Bumble and bumble
Other/Parent Companies: DECIEM (The Ordinary, NIOD), Balmain Beauty
Oh yes, Lauder has been on my s-list and some, but not all, of these companies are on my spreadsheet - I will add. (Many years ago I moved to NYC for some years and worked for the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility - which opened my eyes to the fact that just a few major corporations own many other entities - even worse now.)
Yes- wonder what Ester’s politics were, but probably not like Bezos’ ex
Not their brains (what they have of them), just their integrity. Maybe they never had any integrity. Maybe they don't realize that it will take a lifetime to restore it once lost. Maybe they don't care as long as they get the money.
They don't care as long as they get the $. At all.
Wait! Wait! Trump is a sock puppet. So, what is a sock puppet's sock puppet. A sous suck puppet? An under sock puppet. Mini sock puppet? If he's got any hops he might be an athletic sock puppet. Properly attired he might be an argyle sock puppet. Experience at an airport might make him a wind sock puppet. So many possibilities.
🤪 Kash Patel approves of this message! 🍸
At least no one called him T’s jock strap ( oops 🙊- don’t start up)
Pretty damn frightening.
He'll be as ridiculous as Bessent.
Yes, Bessent is ridiculous, however please remember that he is considered the adult in the cabinet room (as crazy as that sounds).
Though no less a sycophant than the others.
Please remember this Kevin Walsh is the stepson of the genius Ronald Lauder who was the original. Let’s own Greenland proponent! Failed mayoral candidate,head of world Jewish congress and failed Austrian embasador ( recall Felix Block spy hoax)
Looks like Lauder is Warsh's father-in-law as noted by Jules above.
The fact that he could not answer the question of whether Trump lost the 2020 election should be an immediate disqualification for any significant government office.
Definitely a sock puppet !!
Thanks, Paul, for your analysis! So important!