Europe: Is the Force Awakening?

A potential superpower realizes that it can’t rely on America

Since taking power five weeks ago (it seems like longer), Elon Musk and Donald Trump have wreaked havoc on multiple fronts — among other things, rapidly destroying U.S. influence in the world. America has suddenly redefined itself as a rogue nation that doesn’t honor its promises, threatens its allies, tries to engage in Mafia-style extortion, and intervenes in democratic nations’ elections.

Trump has a long history of claiming that other countries are laughing at America’s expense. So look at Emmanuel Macron’s expression as Trump declares that he and Musk will be visiting Fort Knox to make sure that the gold is still there:

But the Musk/Trump betrayal of America’s international principles is having an unintended result: Europe’s democracies, which as a group remain one of the world’s economic superpowers, are rousing themselves to fill the vacuum.

Consider what has happened in Germany recently. Back in December de facto co-president Musk endorsed the neo-Nazi Alternative for Germany, saying that “only the AfD can save Germany,” and has tried to use his control of X to boost the party’s support. JD Vance met with the AfD’s leader and attacked other German parties for the “firewall” that has kept the AfD out of power.

All of this backfired. While the AfD did get 21 percent of Germany’s recent vote, centrist parties will definitely form a governing coalition without it. The interventions of Musk and JD Vance have in fact strengthened Germany’s firewall against neo-Nazis.

Even before the election results were fully in, Friedrich Merz, the soon-to-be Chancellor, effectively declared that Europe is finished with American leadership:

My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA. I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump's statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.

There are hints that, in order to achieve his aims, Merz will find a way to bypass the German '“debt brake” that has prevented much essential German spending.

This is a watershed moment. We may someday look back at the past few weeks as the moment Vladimir Putin lost his chance to conquer Ukraine.

Despite Trump’s lies, the truth is that Europe has done more to support Ukraine’s fight for survival than the U.S. has. Yet in their drive to undermine American support for Ukraine, the Putin-loving American Right claims the opposite.

Source: Kiel Institute

During his press conference with Macron, Trump tried to minimize Europe’s role, claiming that Europe was simply lending money to Ukraine rather than giving aid. Macron corrected him. It is, in fact, aid:

But Europe could do far more. The continent’s economic performance may have been disappointing in recent years, but it remains immensely rich. Here’s a comparison of Europe’s big four economies with Russia:

Source: IMF

Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy, each by itself, has greater economic resources than Russia does. Collectively, they have vastly greater weight than Russia. Moreover, the war has placed the Russian economy under severe strain. Yet, for most of Europe, the cost of aiding Ukraine has been barely noticeable. And if Merz’s remarks are any indication, Europe may soon be prepared to do considerably more.

At the beginning of the war, America’s stocks of weaponry and its defense industry were critical for Ukraine. After many years of inadequate defense spending, Europe had low stocks of weapons and inadequate military-industrial capacity. So while Europe has provided the majority of the dollars going to Ukraine, the US has provided most of the weapons. So far.

Also, bear in mind that when the U.S. provides military aid, the money is mainly spent in America, accruing to the bottom line of American arms manufacturers.

Three years on, while some of Europe’s weakness on the weapons front remains, the calculus has changed considerably. While I don’t pretend to be a military expert, I listen to people who are. According to the military experts, Russia’s initial overwhelming military advantage has been greatly eroded, for at least two reasons.

First, Russia entered this war with what appeared to be huge stocks of sophisticated military equipment. Hardly any of that original arsenal is left, and Russian industry can’t make up for the losses.

Second, war in the 2020s has turned out to be very different from the kind of war that the Russians or, as far as I can tell, many strategists expected. There have been no blitzkriegs — deep penetrations by armored columns, with air power clearing the way. Instead, cheap weapons — first shoulder-fired missiles, now swarms of drones — keep turning expensive hardware into scrap. So the Russia-Ukraine War is a war of attrition, of at best slow advances achieved at enormous cost.

So stepped-up European aid can provide Ukraine with the resources it needs to hold on against an increasingly exhausted Russia.

To be fair, some of the military experts I talk to worry that Ukraine still needs some sophisticated weapons, like Patriot missiles, that only America can provide. Yet, if Merz’s remarks are an indication of where Europe is heading, Trump may have missed his window for betraying Ukraine and delivering it to the Russians.

On economics, where I do have some independent expertise, there appears to be a real possibility that the Musk/Trump Administration will use its “reciprocal tariffs” doctrine to start a trade war with the European Union. This won’t be because Europe imposes high tariffs on U.S. products — it doesn’t. It will be because some Trump advisers have decided to ignore basic economics and claim that European value-added taxes are protectionist.

If Musk/Trump does go that route, they will be in for a shock: Europe can effectively retaliate. The European Union is a customs union, with a unified trade policy and common tariff levels.

A trade war with Europe means going head to head with an economy more or less the same size as our own, at the same time that we’re having fights with all our other trading partners. And the Europeans are not going to be in a conciliatory mood. Did I mention that Tesla sales in Europe fell 45 percent last month?

It’s terrible watching the United States degenerate into Putin-loving thuggery. But there may be some compensation: our degradation encourages the remaining good guys to step up to the plate.

People at the European Commission sometimes joke that there should be a statue of Joseph Stalin in front of the Berlaymont, the building in Brussels where the commission is headquartered. Why? Because the threat from Stalin arguably made the European Union possible.

If Europe rises to the occasion now, maybe they should also put up a statue of Donald Trump.

MUSICAL CODA