Breaking the Heart of the Heartland

White rural voters are belatedly awakening to reality

Every modern presidential administration has issued fact sheets describing and, yes, discreetly touting its recent policy moves. But Trump’s minions don’t do discreet. Click on any of their fact sheets and this appears:

And if, in the midst of this “Golden Age”, someone should observe that Americans aren’t feeling so golden, and are in fact feeling very feeling negative about the economy, the Trumpist answer is that it’s all fake news. Kevin Hassett, the administration’s top economist, says that low consumer sentiment numbers are “being driven by Democrats who have Trump derangement syndrome.”

So it will be news to Hasset that rural whites – who are very Trumpy – have now fallen victim to Trump derangement syndrome. Or, more accurately, they are finally awakening to the nightmarish reality that Trump has created for them.

When I say that rural whites are very Trumpy, I mean very Trumpy. In 2024 Donald Trump narrowly won the popular vote, with only a 1.5 percentage point margin. But he won rural areas by 30 points.

Trump won rural areas by such a large margin because farmers were wildly optimistic about what he would do for them. The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer, which is basically an index of farmers’ economic sentiment, surged with Trump’s victory:

Today, the rural Trump bump is nowhere to be seen. In fact, white rural voters’ views about Trump’s economic policy have turned astonishingly negative. Normally, partisanship strongly colors economic perceptions. According to a recent Fox News poll, only 29% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 71% disapprove. Yet 60% of Republicans still approve.

Remarkably, however, rural white voters are no longer behaving like non-rural Republican voters. They are almost as negative on the economy as the population as a whole, with only 32% of rural whites approving of Trump’s handling of the economy, and 68% disapproving. Trump has made the rural economy so bad that reality has overridden Trump voters’ usual tendency to make excuses for him.

The unavoidable reality is that things are really very bad in rural America. Moreover, the devastation hitting the heartland is squarely a consequence of Trump’s actions and not, like the Biden inflation of 2021-22, a result of forces outside presidential control.

First, there is Trump’s trade war, which has raised the cost of living for all Americans. But farmers have been hit especially hard because they are highly dependent on imported inputs. The tariffs raised the prices of farm machinery, chemicals and fertilizer. The final straw was the loss of foreign markets to rival agricultural exporters such as Brazil -- losses that began during the trade wars of Trump’s first term and have accelerated during his second term:

In 2025 the damage to the American farm economy from Trumpian policies caused a 46% rise in farm bankruptcies. The carnage looks much worse this year: farmers are being hit with another double whammy from the effects of the Iran war.

Like Trump’s tariffs, the Iran war is hitting farmers both as consumers and as producers. Along with all Americans, they are facing an overall rise in the cost of living as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Farmers are also suffering from a large increase in agricultural operating costs. For example, the crisis in the Strait has raised the price of diesel fuel, which runs most agricultural machinery, more than it has raised gasoline prices. In addition, there has been a sharp increase in the price of fertilizer because a significant share of the world’s supply comes from the Persian Gulf.

The carnage in the heartland raises the question of why rural whites so overwhelmingly believed that Trump would improve their lives. After all, Trump made no secret of his intention to pursue aggressive tariff policies that would start a global trade war. And U.S. agriculture is a highly globalized business. It sells much of what it produces overseas — for example, normally we export 40 percent or more of our soybean crop. Furthermore, it was entirely predictable that tariffs would raise the prices of farm machinery, chemicals and fertilizer.

It’s true that farmers didn’t know either that Trump would attack Iran or that he would botch the war so badly. But his indifference to the impact of his actions on ordinary people’s lives should have come as no surprise to anyone paying attention. When he said “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation” when making decisions about Iran, the news was that he admitted it, not that he felt that way.

Why, then, did rural Americans vote to return Trump to office? Obviously, culture war issues and racism played important roles. But it’s also clear in hindsight that rural whites weren’t willing to see their livelihoods destroyed in order to stick it to the liberals by voting for Trump. Instead, they fell for a fantasy, believing that by voting for Trump they could simultaneously own the libs and do well financially.

Instead, they have been betrayed: far from supporting a conservative vision of rural life, Trump is destroying their livelihoods with his vandalism.

How will rural voters respond to this betrayal? Recent polls show that the Senate race in Iowa, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, is now effectively a tossup. The heartland may be awakening to reality, with immense political consequences.

MUSICAL CODA