Autocracy = Corruption
What the U.S. resistance can learn from Hungary
There will be many post-mortems on the demise of the Orbán regime. The stunning victory of Hungary’s opposition was delivered by an electoral surge so large that it swamped the anti-democratic breakwaters the regime had erected to maintain its grip on power.
A full analysis of why Hungarians repudiated Orbán will surely contain many details unique to Hungary. However, it’s also clear that there were three main factors that led to Orbán’s overthrow. And understanding these factors is important if Americans are to defeat Trump’s MAGA regime.
First, Hungarians view themselves as part of democratic Europe – not as a satellite of Russia. Hence they wanted an end to autocracy and their freedoms restored.
Second, but just as importantly, they were voting against Orbánist corruption. For example, drone-taken videos showing the Orbán family’s luxury country estate reportedly received wide play within Hungary:
Autocracy and corruption aren’t separate issues. In practice they inevitably go hand in hand. They’re a natural pairing, like crypto and crime, because authoritarian rule removes accountability and opens the door for Grand Theft Autocracy. There’s even solid statistical evidence:
What Hungary has shown the world is that autocratic corruption can be a powerful mobilizing issue.
The third factor is that Hungary was a “soft” autocracy: Orbán maintained the superficial trappings of democracy, such as elections, while undermining the underpinnings of democracy, with actions such as intimidating opponents, installing a corrupt judiciary, capturing the media, and silencing any independent voices. However, because Orbán still allowed a general election to be held (no doubt under pressure from the European Union), a mass movement of voters was able to defeat him.
What does the “new Hungarian Revolution” mean for the U.S. today?
An immediate lesson is the political power of highlighting corruption as we try to defeat our own home-grown autocrats. Corruption is something every voter can understand, unlike abstract principles in defense of democracy.
The self-dealing during Trump I was, in fact, unprecedented in American history. Recall how lobbyists and foreign potentates booked pricey rooms in Trump’s Washington hotel? But under Trump II blatant corruption has run wild at the highest levels of government, on a scale like nobody has ever seen before. Trump and his family have used his office to extract billions in de facto graft, through crypto deals with petro-state autocrats, investments in prediction markets and defense contractors, making sweetheart foreign real estate deals that line up with favorable tariff treatment, soliciting hundreds of millions for Trump vanity projects.
Oh, yes, then there is the Epstein affair…
While the average American voter may (unfortunately) tolerate some small-scale corruption by those in power, the level of corruption we are now seeing is so vast that it has become a cancer, that is eating away at the heart of the U.S. government.
Want to stop a data center in your community and impose common-sense controls on AI? Well, that’s a non-starter because the Trump family has invested in data centers and in AI firms. Want to regulate crypto and stop its use as a vehicle for crime? Well, um, no, because the Trump family has amassed billions from their crypto holdings. Want to rein in the pernicious effects of prediction markets. I don’t think so, because the Trump family invests in Polymarket. Want to shift America towards safe, clean renewable energy? Think again, because petrostate oligarchs have poured $500 million into Trump’s World Liberty coin.
I could go on, but I think you get the point. Trump promised to drain the swamp, but under his rule the swamp drains you.
And everyone can see it.
Like Orbán, Trump is trying to solidify his own version of soft autocracy by destroying the American system of democratic checks and balances – such as corrupting the Justice Department, bullying Democratic states, and delivering CNN into the hands of the Ellisons.
The possibility that should truly terrify us is that Trumpian levels of corruption and its accompanying authoritarianism will become normalized in America. And that’s the game plan of the autocrat: the public comes to believe that resistance is futile because the regime controls so many levers of power and has corrupted so many people and institutions.
The good news from Hungary is that blatant corruption doesn’t have to be normalized. In fact, public perceptions of runaway corruption can become a weapon in defense of democracy. The public understands corruption, hates it, and can be mobilized to vote en masse against it.
Hungary has shown the way. Will America follow?
Note for readers: At noon ET today Heather Cox Richardson and I will start a series of lunchtime Substack live conversations:
MUSICAL CODA
The Empire strikes Bach. No reason.
40% of Americans continue to approve of Trump (NY Times presidential poll tracker).
78% of eligible Hungarians voted. That doesn’t happen in the US. Péter Magyar’s party took 69% of parliament and can now amend the constitution to prevent Oban from happening again. It’s unclear that we will take the senate in 2026 but a 2/3 majority is out of reach.
Despite Epstein and Iran and everything else he has done, 40% of Americans still approve. We’re not Hungary. Not yet, anyway.
As a Hungarian, I have an insider view what happened in Hungary and the views here are mostly wrong. Here is how I see it.
Hungarians did not like the corruption, the anti-EU, pro-Russian stance, the propaganda and the lies. But they did not like it 10 years ago, so the reason was not this.
Orban's propaganda was based on political commercials on Facebook and Youtube + every Fidesz member viciosly hated Gyurcsany Ferenc (American Joe Biden in Fidesz voters eyes, just a lot worse).
When Gyurcsany Ferenc went away and you could do no more paid commercials on Facebook and Youtube (thanks to EU law), the Fidesz campaign could not work anymore.
Add to that Magyar Péter who was not like the previous opposition. He was prepared, a very good candidate and WAS NOT PART OF THE OLD REGIME. (Yes, he had Fidesz-ties, but did not participate in building the corrupt regime).
And there was what the Fidesz did: pardoning pedophile supporters, using state resources to spy on the opposition and help Russians against the EU and Hungary.
Put it all together and that's why Magyar Péter won.
What the US could learn from it in my humble opinion?
You need a charismatic candidate who is genouinly a good politicians, but witty enough to outplay Trump.
He/she has to understand what the people want and he she must have a credible plan to fix it.
And you have to make those people go to vote who never vote before.
These are the key ingredients, but finding the right candidate is the most difficult one.