America, the Inessential Nation
It turns out that Trump doesn’t have the cards
On Feb. 28, 2025 Donald Trump berated Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine, for what he claimed was failure to show sufficient respect. “You’re not in a good position,” Trump declared. “You don’t have the cards right now.”
It was a spectacle that shamed America — Trump engaging in petty bullying of the leader of a nation fighting for its life against tyranny. If you have time, read the transcript or watch the video to see just how sickening it was. But worse was to come. Trump and his minions proceeded to cut off all financial aid to Ukraine:
They also began blocking shipments of U.S. weapons, even when other nations were willing to pay for them. And in August Trump held a meeting with Vladimir Putin in which, as the Russians see it, he offered to broker a deal that would give Russia control of a crucial fortress belt on Ukrainian soil.
It was a shocking betrayal of a democracy fighting for its freedom — and, in so doing, fighting for the freedom of Europe as a whole. Even some Republicans are ashamed. Yesterday 18 Republican members of the House broke ranks with their leadership and voted for a bill that would restore aid to Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia. But the bill has no chance of becoming law, because Trump is siding ever closely more with Putin in a war that is now well into its fifth year.
But a funny thing happened to Trump’s attempt to hand Ukraine over to his comrade in thuggery: the war has turned in Ukraine’s favor. The fighting remains a gruesome slugfest, but Ukraine’s superior flexibility and capacity for innovation have gradually given it the upper hand in the drone warfare that increasingly shapes combat. In fact, Ukraine is so proficient at drone warfare that the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — which are facing drone attacks as a consequence of Trump’s disastrous Iran war — have signed agreements to draw on Ukrainian technology and expertise.
Zelenskyy, it turns out, does have quite a few cards, while Trump has far fewer cards than he imagined.
Before Trump, we were also a nation almost universally regarded as essential: Nations believed that they needed access to U.S. banks to do business, access to U.S. markets to prosper, access to U.S. weapons to defend themselves. But by breaking decades’ worth of international agreements — not to mention threatening allies and betraying Ukraine — Trump quickly forfeited the world’s trust. By failing so spectacularly against Iran, a far weaker military power, Trump has dispelled much of the world’s fear.
And now the fact that the world is managing economically despite Trump’s tariffs, while Ukraine is surviving despite Trump’s attempt to cut it off at the knees, has revealed that we are much less essential than everyone assumed.
NONMUSICAL CODA
June 5, 1944 — back when we were a reliable and essential ally of nations fighting for freedom.
I am glad my father, who fought in the Battle of the Bulge and was awarded 3 Purple Hearts. Is not alive to see what is happening now. There is no coming back from this.
Power in the international system does not come from strength alone. It also comes from how dependent others are on you.
At its core, this is a network-effects problem.
For example:
* Why is SWIFT important?
* Why is the U.S. dollar important?
* Why are U.S. Treasury securities important?
* Why is English important?
Because everyone uses them.
The more people use a network, the more valuable it becomes. Its influence grows not only from its intrinsic qualities, but from the fact that it is widely adopted.
However, once alternative networks begin to emerge, those network effects can gradually weaken:
* Local-currency settlement systems;
* Regional payment networks;
* Non-dollar trade arrangements;
* Regional supply chains.
As these alternatives develop, countries begin to learn how to operate with less reliance on the United States.
And once such substitute mechanisms become sufficiently established, the process can become difficult to reverse. Even if future administrations attempt to restore America’s previous role, the world may no longer be as dependent on American institutions as it once was.
In that sense, the United States risks moving from being an essential nation in the global system to becoming a more replaceable nation.
But the deeper question is this:
Why are growing numbers of American voters supporting a political movement that seeks to disrupt the very order that made the United States indispensable in the first place?